Cable Industry Facts: the story behind the numbers

Transcription

1 IHS TECHNOLOGY Presentation Cable Industry Facts: the story behind the numbers 12 th March 2015 technology.ihs.com Ben Keen, Chief Analyst, IHS Technology

2 Cable faces challenges in an increasingly competitive environment

3 homes (m) European cable operators have been losing TV subscribers EU 28 revenue generating unit additions/losses Total TV Internet Telephony 3

4 homes (m) In Western Europe, the decline started in Western Europe: revenue generating unit additions Total TV Internet Telephony 4

5 homes (m)..and more recently in Central and Eastern Europe 3.00 Central and EE revenue generating units additions Total TV Internet Telephony 5

6 Pay TV market share Cable operators have been losing pay TV market share while telcos have gained 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% EU 28 pay TV market share Cable DTH IPTV DTT 6

7 Pay TV market share But satellite TV has been the primary competitor in Central & Eastern Europe 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Central and Eastern Europe pay TV market share Cable DTH IPTV DTT 7

8 Despite this, cable is still a growth industry

9 ARPU ( ) More than 70% of European cable TV revenues are now digital, driving TV ARPU growth EU 28: analogue vs digital revenues 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Digital revenues +VOD Analogue revenues TV ARPU 9

10 But the cable opportunity is about far more than TV

11 Total RGUs (m) Total ARPU ( ) Internet and telephony have driven revenue and ARPU growth 120 EU 28: Total RGUs vs ARPU total TV Internet telephony ARPU 0 11

12 And almost 50% of European cable operator revenues now come from Internet and telephony 49% 51% Total internet and telephony revenues: 10.5bn Total TV revenues: 11bn 21.5bn Total Cable triple Play revenues

13 LU CY MT SI HR EE LV SK LT IE FI NO CZ AT SE BG DK RO HU PT CH BE PL NL FR ES UK DE Cable operators have been driving investment in nextgeneration broadband networks 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% DOCSIS 3 availability of cable homes passed % DOCSIS 3.0 Cable homes passed

14 Overall, the industry almost doubled in size in the last 10 years - adding 12bn of value Total revenues (WE) 2014 Total revenues (EE) 52% Television Internet 50% Television Internet Telephony Telephony 20.6 bn 5 bn 70% growth Total revenues (WE) 2004 Total revenues (EE) 219% growth 60% Television Internet Telephony 89% Television Internet Telephony 12.2 bn 1.5 bn 14

15 # deals Average value of company per home ( ) That market growth has driven cable M&A deal value to an all-time high 30 4, ,500 3, , , ,500 1, CEE deals WE deals Avg. value per home ( ) 0 Deal values are based on disclosed transaction values only.

16 And telco moves into the cable sector has been a key factor in driving up those deal values Company Country Buyer Buyer type Company valuation ( ) Value per home ( ) Ono Spain Vodafone Telco 7.2bn 3, Ziggo Netherlands Liberty Global Cable operator 6.9bn 2, Get Norway TDC Telco 1.8bn 4, Annual ARPU ( ) Growth in cable deals has been particularly accelerated by a number of smaller acquisitions to boost cable footprints Number of cable deals in 2014 Austria Croatia Denmark Finland France Latvia Lithuania Macedonia Montenegro Netherlands Norway Poland Romania Slovenia Spain Switzerland

17 Cable investment in broadband also helps the growth of over-the-top competitors

18 Global online video revenue will more than double by 2018 driven by subscription and advertising Online video revenue by business model ($bn) Sample services Subscription Ad-funded Transactional

19 There are already over 40m SVOD subscriptions in EMEA, half of which are for standalone online services EMEA: Online video subscriptions (m) Netflix, Watchever, Now TV and equivalents Bundled subscriptions Amazon Prime Instant Video, Sky Go and other TVE services Standalone subscriptions

20 Content spend ($bn) Subscribers (m) Netflix subscriber growth is closely tied to its investment in content Netflix: content spend vs. paying subscribers Netflix content spend Netflix subscribers Netflix content spend is not just about originals: >80% of spend is acquisitions Increasingly moving away from the long tail and buying valuable TV rights : First run territorial exclusives: (UK: Breaking Bad Season 5, From Dusk till Dawn, Better Call Saul, France/ Germany: Fargo) High-value buys for key rebroadcast rights e.g. Gotham/ Warner Bros global SVOD rights purchased before transmission of first episode Opportunistic acquisition of first pay window movie rights (e.g. Disney in the Netherlands)

21 Netflix already spends more on content than the BBC Content spend by provider ($bn) HBO Discovery ITV BBC Pro7Sat1 Group Sky UK Netflix Amazon Notes: Netflix and Amazon data represent global content spend

22 However, despite all the growth, the OTT video market is still relatively small compared to traditional TV Global TV revenues ($bn) Pay TV Public TV Broadcast advertising Online video Revenues include: consumer-level revenues (spend less VAT) for paid-for media, net advertising revenues and public (e.g. licence/tax funding) for public service broadcasting.

23 Thanks!