THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION IN EUROPE
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1 Information Analytics Expertise SEPTEMBER 2014 THE FUTURE OF TELEVISION IN EUROPE An assessment of the changing nature of television in Europe, and what is shaping the transformation Ben Keen: IHS Technology / ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
2 The European film and television space is still broadcast-led 2
3 The European film and television industry remains a broadcast-led sector 2013 Film and TV revenues (Europe - bn) Online YouTube, Netflix, itunes, ViaPlay etc. Physical DVD/BD disc purchase/rental Theatrical Cinema box-office 92.4 Broadcast including subscription pay TV, public service broadcast and commercial ad-funded broadcast. e.g. Sky, BBC, RTL, SVT, Canal Plus Revenues include: consumer-level revenues (spend less VAT) for paid-for media, net advertising revenues and public (e.g. licence/tax funding) for public service broadcasting.
4 PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014 And we expect broadcast to continue to grow 120 European Broadcast TV revenues ( bn)
5 But the funding mix of the TV economy is shifting 5
6 The revenue mix of broadcast income is increasingly skewed towards subscription PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH Broadcast revenue by business model ( bn) Subscription Public funding Advertising 6
7 PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014 And consolidation in the pay TV sector means operators are gaining ever-greater power Sky UK 2014 TV Subs: 10.7m (f) W. Eur. mkt share: 9.4% 7
8 PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014 And consolidation in the pay TV sector means operators are gaining ever-greater power Sky Europe 2014 TV Subs:19.4m (f) W. Eur. mkt share: 16.5% 8
9 Advertising Revenue ( m) PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014 Many commercial broadcasters are also still feeling the after-effects of 2009 s recession Mediaset (It) ITV ProSiebenSat.1 TF1 RTL TV Advertising Revenue from Major Broadcasters Mediaset Espana
10 Europe is also increasingly connected 10
11 EBU KNOWLEDGE SUMMIT / OCT 2014 Two thirds of Western European households and four in ten Central and Eastern European households already have broadband Broadband penetration of households (%) Central and Eastern Europe Western Europe 11
12 IT EL HR FR PL IE SK IS CZ ES RO BG AT SE FI SI EE DE NO HU CY UK DK PT LV LU LT NL BE CH MT EBU KNOWLEDGE SUMMIT / OCT 2014 Markets are making strong progress to ensure universal broadband availability 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Broadband availability (% of homes) Fixed broadband Source: IHS & VVA on behalf of the European Commission Broadband Coverage in Europe 2013
13 IT EL HR FR PL IE SK IS CZ ES RO BG AT SE FI SI EE DE NO HU CY UK DK PT LV LU LT NL BE CH MT And nearly two-thirds of homes are already covered by next-generation broadband services EBU KNOWLEDGE SUMMIT / OCT % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Broadband availability (% of homes) Next-generation access Fixed broadband Source: IHS & VVA on behalf of the European Commission Broadband Coverage in Europe 2013
14 PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014 By 2020 the whole EU should be covered by 30Mbps broadband 14
15 PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014 As a consequence of this growth, online video usage is increasing 15
16 EBU KNOWLEDGE SUMMIT / OCT 2014 The online video market in Europe is expected to double in size over the next few years European online video revenues ( bn)
17 But as with the traditional broadcast world, the funding mix of online video is changing Europe: Online video revenue by business model ( m) PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Transactional Ad-supported Subscription 17
18 UK and Scandinavia are the largest Netflix markets and expected to remain key territories WE: Netflix subscribers (m) Benelux France GSA Nordics UK&Ireland
19 Two thirds of European spending on SVoD is expected to be with Netflix by Europe: Netflix share of overall SVoD revenue ( bn) Revenue Of which Netflix 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
20 PRESENTATION NAME / MONTH 2014 Services like Netflix are already having an impact on adjacent sectors 20
21 HOME ENTERTAINMENT IN EUROPE / SEPTEMBER 2014 Territories in which Netflix has launched have seen greater-than-average declines in traditional physical video spend 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% -45% Note: Film & TV only YoY change in spend on physical video (2013, %) 21
22 In markets like the US and UK, which have seen strong online video uptake, broadcast viewing is beginning to decline 310 Linear Broadcast TV viewing (mins/person/day) US UK Source: IHS, National panel bodies
23 But TV is not the only industry in turmoil
24 EBU KNOWLEDGE SUMMIT / OCT 2014 Radio audiences are in decline across many markets in Europe CAGR weekly per person radio listening ( ) 1.0% 1.1% 0.6% -0.2% Sweden Netherlands UK France Italy Germany Spain -0.6% -1.9% -3.7% Source: National radio audience measurement bodies, IHS calculations 24
25 Those countries seeing the worst declines also have the highest spend on subscription music services 1.25 EBU KNOWLEDGE SUMMIT / OCT 2014 Monthly spend on subscription music services per household (2013, ) Sweden Netherlands UK France Italy Germany Spain 25
26 EBU KNOWLEDGE SUMMIT / OCT 2014 And those with the lowest spend 1.25 Monthly spend on subscription music services per household (2013, ) Lowest subscription music spend, growth in radio Sweden Netherlands UK France Italy Germany Spain 26
27 Europe is rapidly becoming a fragmented market for audiences though
28 EBU KNOWLEDGE SUMMIT / OCT 2014 The average European household will have nearly 6 video-capable connected devices by Smart TV for every 2 households Nearly 3 smartphones per household 1 STB per 4 households 1 games console per 10 households 1 tablet for every 2 households 1 DMA per 10 households Over 1 PC per household 28
29 Online video viewing is increasingly fragmented across these devices ITV RTL M6 Pay TV; 35% Connect ed TV; 2% PC, 46% Mobile/ tablet; 22% Mobile/ tablet; 16% PC; 84% Pay TV; 40% Connect ed TV; 1% Mobile/ tablet; 19% PC; 41% 2013 online viewing by device
30 And PSBs are already showing how far this fragmentation might go BBC iplayer TV request across different devices (%) PC Mobile devices Tablets Games Consoles TV platform operators 4 Internet TV/connected devices Other devices Jul-13 Jul-14 Source: BBC 30
31 Questions? 31
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