GIS-based location analyses for intermodal terminal landscape in Belgium Ethem Pekin Promotor: Prof. Dr. Cathy Macharis MOSI Transport en Logistiek http://www.vub.ac.be/mosi-t
Outline Introduction Promoting intermodal transport The LAMBIT methodology Scenario based analysis Conclusions 28-9-2009 Pag. 2
I. Containerisation II. Hinterland III. Policy awareness MOSI Transport en Logistiek 11/12/2008 DSSITP Day 3
Containerisation & Intermodalism Containerisation Standardization the box Intermodal loading units Container ships Seaports Intermodalism Intermodal chain Modes and actors Information and communications technologies Intermodal terminals 28-9-2009 Pag. 4
I. Containerisation MOSI Transport en Logistiek
Containerisation 28-9-2009 Pag. 6
Generations of containerships Scale increase in container shipping 28-9-2009 Pag. 7
Evolution of container handling 28-9-2009 Pag. 8
Growth of the container traffic containers (TEU) 12 000 000 10 000 000 8 000 000 6 000 000 4 000 000 2 000 000 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Hamburg Rotterdam Antw erpen Zeebrugge Source: MOSI T based on the statistics of the port authorities 28-9-2009 Pag. 9
Containerisation & Intermodalism Containerisation Standardization the box Intermodal loading units Container ships Seaports Intermodalism Intermodal chain Modes and actors Information and communications technologies Intermodal terminals 28-9-2009 Pag. 10
II. The hinterland MOSI Transport en Logistiek
Intermodal chain Intermodal transport: sea port intermodal terminal municipalities Uni-modal road transport: sea port municipalities Source: own setup 28-9-2009 Pag. 12
Intermodal transport organization Source: Savy, 2007 28-9-2009 Pag. 13
Actors 28-9-2009 Pag. 14
Cost structure Inland water/rail 28-9-2009 Pag. 15
Break-even point Costs ( ) Break-even point Road transport Intermodal transport Distance (km) 28-9-2009 Pag. 16
Terminal landscape 2008 Ö #! sea port waterways/road Ö sea sea port port terminal rail/road waterways/road terminal terminal trimodal # rail/road terminal terminal! trimodal terminal ± ± ± 0 10 20 40 60 80 0 10 10 20 20 40 40 60 60 Kilometers 80 80 Kilometers 28-9-2009 Pag. 17
Barge Container terminals (TEU) Source: MOSI T based on the statistics of the PBV 28-9-2009 Pag. 18
Rail/road terminals 28-9-2009 Pag. 19
National Rail Container Network (IFB) 12 shuttle Services between the port and the inland terminals 28-9-2009 Pag. 20
Container Main Hub 28-9-2009 Pag. 21
Container rail transport 350,000 300,000 250,000 TEU 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Rail all Narcon 28-9-2009 Pag. 22
Modal split Modal split container transport Antwerp (basis=teu) 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% +0,69 million TEU +1,96 million TEU +2,15 million TEU 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Rail 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 8% 8% 10% 11% Barge 24% 27% 28% 28% 29% 30% 31% 31% 32% 34% 33% 34% Road 70% 66% 65% 63% 61% 61% 59% 60% 60% 58% 57% 55% 28-9-2009 Pag. 23
III. Policy awareness MOSI Transport en Logistiek
Increased policy attention 1. Necessity to open up the ports; 2. Increased influence of the European commission policy; 3. Increased awareness of the external costs of transport; 4. Increased awareness of the economic advantages 28-9-2009 Pag. 25
European policy and regulatory framework 1992 Green Paper Fair pricing White Paper Railways TEN-T Guidelines 1997 White Paper Infrastructure use Regulation Financial support 2001 Proposal ILU 2006 Communication Greening transport Communication Freight logistics action plan 1995 1996 1998 2003 2007 2008 White Paper Future of the CTP Communication Intermodality White Paper Time to decide Communication Mid-term review Directive Combined transport rules Decision Financial support Communication Rail freight freeways Green Paper Port infrastructure 28-9-2009 Pag. 26
Intermodal transport policy framework Source: VUB MOSI-T 28-9-2009 Pag. 27
Promoting intermodal transport intermodal transhipments combined transport equipment a new rail service combined transport terminals intermodal transhipments an experimental rail (rolling) motorway service start-up aid for equipment & infrastructure environmental premiums equipment technology feasibility studies training 28-9-2009 Pag. 28
Belgium The public private partnership programme for the construction of new quay walls Developing regular container services in Wallonia New intermodal terminals Regional and federal subsidy schemes Incorporated in: Flanders in Action Extented gateways 28-9-2009 Pag. 29
Subsidy schemes 28-9-2009 Pag. 30
A changing transport context Combat Climate Change a Priority for the EU Greening of transport Internalisation of external costs Short term marginal cost categories Different vehicle types Effects of taxation of road transport Photo: UNIFE 28-9-2009 Pag. 31
Emissions 28-9-2009 Pag. 32
Emissions Source: Energiebalans Vlaanderen VITO, VITO, VMM 28-9-2009 Pag. 33
External costs EC, 2003 28-9-2009 Pag. 34
Belgium 28-9-2009 Pag. 35
LAMBIT: Location analysis model for Belgian intermodal terminal MOSI Transport en Logistiek
Methodology GIS network Market prices update Container volumes update 28-9-2009 Pag. 37
Scenario based analyses for Belgium Reference scenario Subsidy scenarios Rail subsidy Barge subsidy Internalisation of external costs scenario Fuel price scenarios Future terminal scenarios 28-9-2009 Pag. 38
Reference scenario 28-9-2009 Pag. 39
Subsidy schemes 28-9-2009 Pag. 40
Rail subsidy scenario The reference scenario Without a rail subsidy 28-9-2009 Pag. 41
Barge subsidy scenario The reference scenario With a barge subsidy 28-9-2009 Pag. 42
Internalisation of external costs scenario 1/2 The reference scenario Internalisation of external costs 28-9-2009 Pag. 43
Internalisation of external costs scenario 2/2 Internalisation of external costs for barge Internalisation of external costs for rail 28-9-2009 Pag. 44
Fuel price scenarios 28-9-2009 Pag. 45
Future terminal scenario The reference scenario New terminals 28-9-2009 Pag. 46
Impact of new terminals Aalst 1 municipality 92,567 ton Ghlin 12 municipalities 110,642 ton La Louvière 4 municipalities 61,628 ton Genk 47 municipalities 520,666 ton Liège 38 municipalities 201,018 ton rail barge 28-9-2009 Pag. 47
Conclusions very dense terminal network common market area competition rail vs barge (rail subsidy) competition barge (barge subsidy) External costs internalized = IT fuel prices = IT a need for coordination between the regional and federal policies 28-9-2009 Pag. 48
Thank you for your listening Questions and Remarks Ethem Pekin ethem.pekin@vub.ac.be Prof. Dr. Cathy Macharis cathy.macharis@vub.ac.be MOSI Transport en Logistiek http://www.vub.ac.be/mosi-t