Trade Policy Restrictiveness in Transportation Services Ingo Borchert, Batshur Gootiiz and Aaditya Mattoo Development Research Group Trade and International Integration, The World Bank OECD Expert Meeting on Transport Services 15 November 2010
Agenda 1. WB Services Policy Restrictiveness Database Measurement of transport policies Quantification 2. Global Patterns of Protection 3. Examples of policy impact 4. Questions to kick off discussion
Services Policy Database: Coverage Services trade database coverage (102 countries) GRL SJM SJM KIR WSM PYF TON Low income USA MEX CAN BMU BH S CUB TC A BLZ JAM HTI DOMPRI ATG GTM DMA GLP SLV HND MTQ NIC GRD VC LCA BRB T CRI TTO PAN VEN COL GUY SU GUF R EC U PER BR A BOL PRY UR Y ARG C HL ISL NOR FIN FRO SWE RU S EST DN K LVA IR L XIM GBR LTU NLD BLR BELDEU POL LU X CZE AU T SVK UKR FR A CHE LIE HU N KA Z SVN MDA HRV ROM MN G AN D MCOSMR ITA BIH YU G BGR ALB MKD GEO UZB AR AZE M KGZ PRTESP GRC TUR TKM PR K TJK CH N JPN MLT KOR TU N CYP LBN SYR IR Q AFG MAR ISR JOR IR N DZA KWT PAK LBY NPL EGY BTN ESH BH QAT R SAU AR E IN D BGD TWN MAC MR T OMN MMR MLI NER LAO C PV TCD ER I GMB SEN YEM VNM SD N THA GNB BFA DJI KHM MN P PH L GIN SLE BEN NGA C IVGHA TGO ETH LBR CMR CAF LKA SOM MDV MYS BRN STP GN Q UGA GAB COG KEN SGP ZAR RWA BD I ID N SYC TZA PNG AGO MWI COM ZMB MOZ ZWE MD G MU S NAM BWA REU SWZ AUS ZAFLSO SL B VU T NC L FJI Lower middle NZL Upper middle FL K High-OECD High-nonOECD No data ATA
Database Coverage 102 countries: 78 developing countries surveyed, comparable data for 24 OECD countries Six broad services sectors; different modes of supply where applicable Multiple policy dimensions but focus on discriminatory policy measures Mostly cross-validated by governments more than 3,000 country-subsector-mode combinations
Coverage: Transportation Sector/Sub-sector Mode 1 Mode 3 Transport Air passenger domestic x Air passenger international x x Maritime shipping international x x Maritime auxiliary services Road freight domestic Rail freight domestic x x x
Coverage Transportation Mode 3 Regulatory Category Measures considered 1) Market Entry License limit / quota on market entry Significantly discriminatory licensing 2) Ownership, Legal Form Greenfield, acquisitions, subsidiary, branch, JV Foreign equity participation limits 3) License procedures Discrimination in licensing criteria Allocation License length, renewal and due process for rejection 4) Aspects of Operations Nationality requirement for board of directors Nationality requirement for employees Restrictions on repatriation of earnings 5) Regulatory environment Regulatory authority Appeal of decisions, prior notice.
Coverage Transportation Mode 1 Subsector Measures considered Maritime shipping Cargo preferences (Liner / Bulk / Private / Government cargo) Liner conferences exempt from competition law Air passenger transport WTO s Air Liberalization Index (ALI)
Quantification: STRI Score Word Bank s STRI: expert judgment Policy summary + scoring rules Mapping on 5-point scale: [0, 25, 50, 75, 100] Aggregation by weights Modal weights: sector-specific Sector weights: value-added based Problems: cardinality, subjectivity, non-additivity across modes
0 STRI 20 40 60 80 100 Restrictiveness of Services Trade Policy, 2008/09 Distribution of Transport STRI Median 0 20 40 60 80 100 Cumulative Density (%) Note: median transport STRI = 31.4, based on 102 countries. Source: Borchert, Gootiiz and Mattoo (2010), World Bank: mimeo
0 10 20 30 40 50 STRI by Transport Sectors Transport STRIs 46.5 37.6 32.3 29.1 16.5 Air Maritime Mar Auxiliary Road Rail Source: Borchert, Gootiiz and Mattoo (2010), World Bank: mimeo
-2-1 e( lna_num_comp X ) 0 1 2 Example: competition in air transport Higher STRI scores are associated with fewer airlines servicing a country: Partial regression plot (IV estimation) DRC CAN NZL KGZ RUS JOR SWE AUS USA LKA NPL IDNUKR ZAF MUS PRT GRC IRLRWA ZWE KEN ARMUGA BOL ZMB PHL GBR KAZ AUT PAN DOM BGRFIN DNKITA ESP ECU KHM DEUCOL ALBPER HND SENMOZ NGA GHA CRI NIC LTU LBN JPN GEOMNG PRY LSO MYS FRA MEX TUR URY IND CHL NLD TTOBEL BRA MDG NAM VEN MLI CZE BGDTZA CHN ARG GTM ROM POL LAO MWI UZBBLR CIV YEM KOR BWA PAKDZA ETH THA BHR TUN EGY CMR VNM MAR IRN KWT OMN SAU QAT -.1 0.1.2.3 e( ags_m0_air X ) coef = -2.6750653, (robust) se =.82909172, t = -3.23 Covariates: log GDP, log GDP p.c., percent urban pop, pop density, landlocked dummy, Sub-Saharan Africa dummy, num large airports, air transport STRI. Source: Borchert, Gootiiz, Grover and Mattoo (2010), World Bank
0.5 1 Example: logistics prices More restrictive transport policies are associated with lower availability of competitively priced logistics services (LPI 2009): Partial regression plot (IV estimation) SWE KGZ AUS IRL MDG PHL MYS AUT JOR TUN -1 -.5 UZB LAO KAZ NZL RWA LTU DNKFIN UGA MOZ GBR DEU MUS NLD ROM DRC CZE THA BGR SEN ZAF ETH KEN NIC PAN IND POLARG PRY TZA URY JPN KOR BEL HND GEO LBN FRA TURVEN ALB PRTCAN ECU PAK CMR IDN NGA ITA CRI PER ESP UKR DZA MNG BGD CHL BRA ZMB BOL CIV DOM GRC GHA USA MEX ARM LKA NPL KHM HUN BHR MLI YEM EGY COL NAM RUS GTM VNM CHN KWT IRN OMN QAT SAU BWA -.1 0.1.2 e( agi_m0_tra X ) coef = -1.4153001, (robust) se =.53648491, t = -2.64 Covariates: log GDP, log GDP p.c., percent urban pop, pop density, landlocked dummy, Sub-Saharan Africa dummy, air transport STRI. Source: Borchert, Gootiiz, Grover and Mattoo (2010), World Bank
0.5 1 Example: logistics quality More restrictive transport policies are associated with poorer quality of logistics services (LPI 2009): Partial regression plot (IV estimation) DRC -1 -.5 UZB LAO LBN SWE FIN BEL IRL NLDNK DEU CAN NZL SEN UGA ZAF KGZ AUSFRA GBR NICPHL IND HND MDG PRT JPN ITA GTM PAN ESP GEO CRI MOZ ARM NPL POL LTU BGR GHA KORBRA ETH TUR ALB USA URY KEN CHL ARG RWA MEX ECU KAZ DOM PER ROM IDNUKR COL LKANAM MUS GRC VEN MYS KHM PRY CIV MNG CZE MLI BOL AUT ZMB HUN NGA PAK BGD DZA BWA THA TZA YEM JORBHR EGY CMR TUN VNM CHN KWT IRN OMN SAU QAT RUS -.1 0.1.2 e( agi_m0_tra X ) coef = -1.613734, (robust) se =.58220632, t = -2.77 Covariates: log GDP, log GDP p.c., percent urban pop, pop density, landlocked dummy, Sub-Saharan Africa dummy, air transport STRI. Source: Borchert, Gootiiz, Grover and Mattoo (2010), World Bank
Services reform vital for trade facilitation Landlocked countries air transport policies almost twice as restrictive as in coastal countries Trade-facilitating investments will earn a poor return unless accompanied by meaningful services reform 77% of IDA s transportation funding over last decade ($8.6bn) committed to roads, highways But countries (including the landlocked) cannot unilaterally reform international transport exclusion of transportation from a Doha development round would be a serious omission
What Other Aspects of Policy? Imperfect competition Tour de rôle in African trucking Fink/Mattoo/Neagu (2002): private anticompetitive practices have greater impact on shipping prices than restrictive policies Nov 9, 2010: EU commission imposes >$1bn in fines on air cargo cartel External effect of not enforcing competition policy 12 countries still exempt liner conference from comp law Not clear how far air transport services are subject to competition disciplines Other prudential / impartial regulation e.g. airport slot allocation (Cairo)
Questions 1. Do preliminary results look reasonable? 2. Get policy measure interactions right: a) Across modes of supply b) Across modes of transport (multimodal, logistics supply chain) c) Other policy areas outside services 3. Get regulatory impact right 4. How to measuring policy discretion, uncertainty?
For the first time describe policy patterns around the world; with focus on discriminatory trade policies Demonstrate how these measures matter Refinements regarding linkages across measures and across the logistics supply chain Today s discussion! Taking Stock Thank you for your attention!