Design of efficient redistributive fiscal policy

Transcription

1 Fiscal Policy and Income Inequality Sanjeev Gupta Deputy Director Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF IMF-Hitotsubashi University Workshop March 12, Tokyo Structure of the presentation Trends in inequality Including inequality of income and wealth Redistributive role of fiscal policy Design of efficient redistributive fiscal policy Basic principles for designing fiscal redistribution Design of spending measures (cash and in-kind transfers) Design of tax measures (direct and indirect taxes) 2

2 I. Trends in Inequality 3 Inequality has been increasing in most economies ent Gini coefficie Advanced (21) Asia and Pacific (14) Emerging Europe (21) Latin America and Caribbean (19) Middle East and North Africa (12) Sub-Saharan Africa (22) 4

3 Global Inequality and Income Growth 5 Inequality Between Countries Down, Inequality Within Countries Up World Gini Coefficient, World inequality is defined by the Gini Index, assuming the world is one country. Source: Sala-i-Martin (26) s Inequa ality (Gini Index) Income Inequality in the 198s and 2s HTI BOL HND BWACOL CPV GTM CHL ZMB PER PRYHKG PAN LSO NPL CRI BRA RUS CIV DOM ECU KEN RWA LKA URY THA MDG SLV MEX SLE NGA SGP ARG CMR TKM PHL GAB CHN MKDJOR IRN MAR GEO GHA ARM MUS KAZGBR ISR IDN MLI UGA TTO VEN MWI MYS LTULVA TUN TUR KGZ UZB MDABGR USA MRT AUS NZL PRT IND DZA TZA ROM TJK ESP PAK ITA GRC EST CAN CYP DEU JPN KOR BGD EGY AZE POL UKR CHE LUX FRA ETH IRL BHS BLR NLD DNK HRV AUT CZE HUN FIN SVN BEL SVK SWE NOR Inequality (Gini Index) 198s Source: Solt (29) ZAF JAM Advanced Economies Emerging Markets Low Income Countries 6 6

4 In Asia, although poverty has decreased substantially, inequality has increased Poverty ($2/day) and Growth Gini Coefficient 1 TWN Average = Average =.35 MYS e Absolute Change in Poverty Rate PHL MYS BGD IND LAO NPL THA IDN LKA KHM VNM CHN CHN LKA KHM LAO MNG#N/A VNM IDN IND NPL BGD TWN PHL THA Average Annual Growth Rate (GDP per Capita) 199 Countries included: BGD=Bangladesh; BTN=Bhutan; KHM=Cambodia; CHN=China; FJI=Fiji; IND=India; IDN=Indonesia; KIR=Kiribati; KOR=Korea, Republic of; LAO=Laos; MYS=Malaysia; MDV=Maldives; MHL=Marshall Islands; MNG=Mongolia; MMR=Myanmar; NPL=Nepal; PNG=Papua New Guinea; 7 PHL=Philippines; WSM=Samoa; SLB=Solomen Islands; LKA=Sri Lanka; THA=Thailand; TON=Tonga; VUT=Vanuatu; VNM=Vietnam; PAK=Pakistan. More recently, the focus has been on the rising income share of top income earners 25 Gross Income Share of Top One-Percent in Selected Advanced and Developing Economies, Perc cent United Kingdom Australia Canada South Africa India United States China France Germany Japan Netherlands Sweden Mauritius 8

5 Public support for redistribution has been rising Late 2s Public Support for Redistribution AUT ROM SVN DEU BIH HRV HUN SRB AZE CHE TUR ALB FIN SWE IND SVK CHL ESP MDA IRL FRA POL LTU PRT GBR ARG NOR MNE URY BLR ISL BRA BEL ZAF EST AUS CHN CAN ITA NLD ARM RUS MEX NGA USA MLT LVA KOR GEO DNK TWN JPN MKD BGR UKR PER Late 199s Source: Integrated Values Survey Wealth is even more unequally distributed 1 9 Wealth Gini = 7.7 Disposable income Gini = IDN MYS IND PHL THA KOR PNG FJI CHN SLB Source: Disposable income Ginii is taken from OECD; Luxembourg Income Study Database; Socio-Economic i Database for Latin America and the Caribbean (SEDLAC); World Bank; Eurostat. Wealth Gini data comes from Credit Suisse Global Wealth Databook (212). Countries included: BGD=Bangladesh; BTN=Bhutan; KHM=Cambodia; CHN=China; FJI=Fiji; IND=India; IDN=Indonesia; KIR=Kiribati; KOR=Korea, Republic of; LAO=Laos; MYS=Malaysia; MDV=Maldives; MHL=Marshall Islands; MNG=Mongolia; MMR=Myanmar; NPL=Nepal; PNG=Papua New Guinea; 1 PHL=Philippines; WSM=Samoa; SLB=Soloman Islands; LKA=Sri Lanka; THA=Thailand; TON=Tonga; VUT=Vanuatu; VNM=Vietnam; PAK=Pakistan. LKA TON VUT KHM LAO MDV MNG VNM NPL BGD PAK

6 Intergenerational income mobility is higher in countries with low income inequality.5 GBR ITA ) elasticity (le ess mobility.4.3 GER NZL FRA CHE ESP JPN USA Generation nal earnings.2 FIN SWE NOR DNK CAN AUS y =.251x Gini (around 1985; higher inequality ) 11 II. Redistributive Role of Fiscal Policy 12

7 Redistributive fiscal policy reduces inequality by one third in advanced economies, mostly through spending.3.25 From taxes Average market income Gini:.43 From transfers Average disposable income Gini:.29 Absolut te Gini reduction Total redistribution =.14 From transfers =.9.5. DNK CZE BEL SVN NOR GBR FIN AUT SWE LUX DEU FRA AUS IRL NLD ISR CAN USA EST ITA GRC ESP KOR Countries included: AUS=Australia; AUT=Austria; BEL=Belgium; CAN=Canada; CZE=Czech Republic; DEU=Germany; DNK=Denmark; ESP=Spain; EST=Estonia; FIN=Finland; FRA=France; GBR=United Kingdom; GRC=Greece; ISR=Israel; IRL=Ireland; ITA=Italy; KOR=Korea; LUX=Luxembourg; NLD=Netherlands; SVN=Slovenia; SWE=Sweden; TWN=Taiwan Province of China; USA=United States. 13 Fiscal redistribution also low reflecting low revenues and social spending Composition of revenues, 21 (Percent GDP) Composition of social spending, 21 (Percent GDP) Advanced {31} Emerging Europe {21} Latin America {27} Sub-Saharan Africa {36} Asia and Pacific {24} MENA {21} 5 Advanced {3} Emerging Europe {19} South America {1} Central America and Caribbean {13} Indirect taxes Income taxes and contributions Corporate Income Tax Revenue Other tax revenue Social protection Health lh Education Total revenue mean MENA {14} Asia and Pacific {22} Sub-Saharan Africa {29} 14

8 Social protection spending also low in Asia Social protection, public spending (percent GDP) APD median APD population weighted average Countries included: BGD=Bangladesh; BTN=Bhutan; KHM=Cambodia; CHN=China; FJI=Fiji; IND=India; IDN=Indonesia; KIR=Kiribati; KOR=Korea, Republic of; LAO=Laos; MYS=Malaysia; MDV=Maldives; MHL=Marshall Islands; MNG=Mongolia; MMR=Myanmar; NPL=Nepal; PNG=Papua New Guinea; PHL=Philippines; WSM=Samoa; SLB=Soloman Islands; LKA=Sri Lanka; THA=Thailand; TON=Tonga; VUT=Vanuatu; VNM=Vietnam; PAK=Pakistan. 15. and low spending reflected in low coverage of social insurance.. 1 Percent of Population above Legal Retirement Age in Receipt of a Pension 9 87% 86% % 37% % 21% 1 Advanced (n=27) Emerging Europe (n=18) Middle East and North Africa (n=17) Latin America (n=21) Asia and Pacific (n=19) Sub-Saharan Africa (n=27) 16

9 ..especially among lower-income groups Social Protection Coverage and Benefit Share of Poorest 4% 6 Median = 42.5 Benefit In ncidence (Percen nt) Median = Coverage (Percent) Asia and Pacific Latin America and Caribbean Middle East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa Social protection includes pensions and social assistance transfers 17 Health spending low and outcomes poor. 1 Health, public spending (percent GDP) APD median 9 APD population weighted average Mortality rate, infant (per 1, live births) APD median APD population weighted average KIR SLB NPL VUT TON MDV FJI MNG THA CHN VNM PNG MYS BRN KHM LKA IDN PHL IND BGD Advanced erging Europe Eme Latin America L SS Africa MENA PNG KIR IND KHM NPL BGD SLB IDN PHL MNG FJI VNM VUT CHN THA TON MDV LKA MYS BRN SS Africa MENA ntral America outh America erging Europe Advanced Cen So Eme Countries included: BGD=Bangladesh; BTN=Bhutan; KHM=Cambodia; CHN=China; FJI=Fiji; IND=India; IDN=Indonesia; KIR=Kiribati; KOR=Korea, Republic of; LAO=Laos; MYS=Malaysia; MDV=Maldives; MHL=Marshall Islands; MNG=Mongolia; MMR=Myanmar; NPL=Nepal; PNG=Papua New Guinea; PHL=Philippines; WSM=Samoa; SLB=Soloman Islands; LKA=Sri Lanka; THA=Thailand; TON=Tonga; VUT=Vanuatu; VNM=Vietnam; PAK=Pakistan. 18

10 with gaps in health coverage among lower-income groups 8 Shares of Health Spending Benefiting the Poorest 4% CHL 29 ARG 29 COL 21 URY 29 BOL 27 EGY 25 BRA 29 BOL 29 BLR 22 PER 29 ZAF 21 HND 24 ARM 211 MNG 1995 MEX 21 ETH 211 BGD 2 ZMB 29 IDN 212 SLV 211 TUR 23 MOZ 1997 BGR 1995 THA 28 GTM 21 ROM 1997 GHA 1998 IND 1996 ECU 1998 Source: Lustig (215); Davoodi, Tiongson, and Asawanuchit (21); Lustig et. Al (211); World Bank.. Countries included: ALB=Albania; ARG=Argentina; ARM=Armenia; AZE=Azerbaijan; BEN=Benin; BGD=Bangladesh; BIH=Bosnia and Herzegovina; BOL=Bolivia; BRA=Brazil; CHL=Chile; CIV=Cote d Ivoire; COL=Colombia; CRI=Costa Rica; EGY=Egypt; ETH=Ethiopia; GTM=Guatemala; IDN=Indonesia; IND=India; KEN=Kenya; KHM=Cambodia; KSV=Kosovo; LBR=Liberia; LSO=Lesotho; MEX=Mexico; MOZ=Mozambique; NAM=Namibia; NPL=Nepal; 19 PER=Peru; SLV=El Salvador; THA=Thailand; TUR=Turkey; UGA=Uganda; URY=Uruguay; UZB=Uzbekistan; ZAF=South Africa; ZMB=Zambia. Low education spending also leads to low education outcomes Secondary net enrollment rate Education, public spending (percent GDP) 9 APD median APD population weighted average APD median APD population weighted average KIR MYS MDV THA PNG FJI BRN SLB VUT IND TON MNG VNM PHL IDN NPL CHN LKA BGD KHM Advanced Latin America L MENA erging Europe SS Africa Eme BRN LKA FJI MNG THA IDN MYS PHL NPL VUT BGD SLB KHM Advanced Eme erging Europe MENA outh America ntral America SS Africa S Ce Countries included: BGD=Bangladesh; BTN=Bhutan; KHM=Cambodia; CHN=China; FJI=Fiji; IND=India; IDN=Indonesia; KIR=Kiribati; KOR=Korea, Republic of; LAO=Laos; MYS=Malaysia; MDV=Maldives; MHL=Marshall Islands; MNG=Mongolia; MMR=Myanmar; NPL=Nepal; PNG=Papua New Guinea; PHL=Philippines; WSM=Samoa; SLB=Soloman Islands; LKA=Sri Lanka; THA=Thailand; TON=Tonga; VUT=Vanuatu; VNM=Vietnam; PAK=Pakistan. 2

11 and gaps in coverage among lower- income groups Shares of Education Spending and Market Income Benefitting the Poorest 4% NAM 23 LSO 22 BRA 29 ARG 29 PER 29 SLV 211 URY 29 CHL 29 ARM 211 COL 21 MEX 21 ZAF 21 ALB 22 BIH 21 GTM 21 BOL 29 CRI 21 KEN 26 KHM 22 TUR 21 IDN 212 AZE 21 LBR 28 KSV 2 THA 28 NPL 24 BOL 27 UZB 2 CIV 28 BEN 23 MOZ 23 EGY 25 ETH 211 UGA 26 BGD 2 ZMB 29 Source: Lustig (215); Davoodi, Tiongson, and Asawanuchit (21); Lustig et. Al (211); World Bank.. Countries included: ALB=Albania; ARG=Argentina; ARM=Armenia; AZE=Azerbaijan; BEN=Benin; BGD=Bangladesh; BIH=Bosnia and Herzegovina; BOL=Bolivia; BRA=Brazil; CHL=Chile; CIV=Cote d Ivoire; COL=Colombia; CRI=Costa Rica; EGY=Egypt; ETH=Ethiopia; GTM=Guatemala; IDN=Indonesia; IND=India; KEN=Kenya; KHM=Cambodia; KSV=Kosovo; LBR=Liberia; LSO=Lesotho; MEX=Mexico; MOZ=Mozambique; NAM=Namibia; NPL=Nepal; 21 PER=Peru; SLV=El Salvador; THA=Thailand; TUR=Turkey; UGA=Uganda; URY=Uruguay; UZB=Uzbekistan; ZAF=South Africa; ZMB=Zambia. and there is no Robin Hood paradox In Kind-Social Spending and Market Income Inequality, 21 duca on/gdp E Educa on/gdp vs Mkt Income Gini 9% BOL 8% ZAF 7% 6% BRA ETH MEX 5% 4% IND CHL SLV URY PER GTM COL 3% ARM 2% 1% Mkt Income Gini H ealth/gdp H Health/GDP vs Mkt Income Gini 6% 5% SLV BRA URY ZAF 4% BOL CHL 3% PER MEX COL 2% ETH ARM GTM 1% IND % Mkt Income Gini Source: Lustig (215). Countries included: ARM=Armenia; BOL=Bolivia; BRA=Brazil; CHL=Chile; COL=Colombia; ETH=Ethiopia; GTM=Guatemala; IND=India; MEX=Mexico; PER=Peru; SLV=El Salvador; URY=Uruguay; ZAF=South Africa. 22

12 Energy subsidies are high and sometimes exceed social spending (In percent of GDP, 211) Tax subsidies Pretax subsidies Education spending Health spending Thailand Maldives Korea, Republic of K Malaysia Bhutan Fiji Indonesia India Pakistan Sri Lanka Myanmar 23 Most of the benefits from energy subsidies accrue to upper income households Distribution of Petroleum Product Subsidies in Asian Countries by Income Groups (in percent of total product subsidies) Gasoline Bottom quintile Kerosene Top quintile 21 LPG Diesel

13 III. Designing g Efficient Redistributive Fiscal Policy 25 Designing efficient redistributive fiscal policy Redistributive fiscal policy should be consistent with macroeconomic objectives The impact of tax and spending policies should be evaluated jointly Tax and expenditure policies need to be carefully designed to balance distributional and efficiency objectives Design should take into account administrative capacity 26

14 Reform options to achieve more efficient redistribution of social spending Social transfers Expand conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs as administrative capacity improves (e.g., programs exist in Bangladesh, Cambodia, India, Indonesia, Nepal and Philippines) Expand noncontributory social pensions as means-tested (e.g. Bangladesh, Korea, Malaysia, Nepal, Viet Nam), pensions-tested (e.g. Fiji, Thailand) or a universal cash transfer (e.g. Brunei, PNG, Timor) Remove general price subsidies and better target social transfers (e.g., Indonesia) by addressing: Fragmentation and duplication reduce number of programs (Vietnam) Low coverage and benefits expand coverage with savings from targeting Reliance on costly in-kind benefits use se cash benefit (China, India) Expand public works programs (e.g., Bangladesh, India) 27 Reform options to achieve more efficient redistribution of social spending Health Expand coverage of publicly financed basic health package and health insurance (China, Vietnam) Reduce or eliminate user charges for low-income households (e.g., Indonesia) Address supply-side barriers in less developed areas (e.g. Bangladesh, Laos, Vietnam) Improve efficiency of health spending 28

15 Reform options to achieve more efficient redistribution of social spending Education Improve access of low-income families to education by: increasing investment in lower levels of education (Philippines) focusing on access and progression to primary and lower-secondary education (e.g. Bhutan, Cambodia, Iran, Lao, Mongolia) expanding coverage for girls and students in rural areas (e.g. Bangladesh, India) 29 Reform options to achieve more efficient redistribution of taxation Personal income taxation Implement progressive Personal Income Tax (PIT) rate structures (e.g. Korea, Thailand, Viet Nam) Expand coverage of the PIT Reconsider income tax exemptions, based on a critical tax-expenditure review (e.g., India, Indonesia, China) Impose a reasonable PIT exemption threshold Capital income taxation Develop more effective taxation of multinationals (e.g. China, India, Japan) Exchange information internationally 3

16 Reform options to achieve more efficient redistribution of taxation Property taxation Utilize better the opportunities for recurrent property taxes (e.g. Hong Kong, Singapore, Viet Nam) Improve administrative infrastructure Consumption taxationation Minimize VAT exemptions and special VAT rates Set a sufficiently high VAT registration threshold (e.g. Indonesia, Singapore, Viet Nam) Use specific excises mainly for purposes other than redistribution ib ti 31 Thank you! 32