DEPENDENT ELITES IN POST- SOCIALISM: ARE LAND-BASED POST- COLONIAL SYSTEMS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE TRANSCONTINENTAL ONES? by Pal TAMAS [Institute of
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1 DEPENDENT ELITES IN POST- SOCIALISM: ARE LAND-BASED POST- COLONIAL SYSTEMS SO DIFFERENT FROM THE TRANSCONTINENTAL ONES? by Pal TAMAS [Institute of Sociology, HAS Budapest]
2 STRUCTURE OF THE PAPER 1. STATE PROBLEMS. DESTINIES AND POLICIES 2. THE MODEL DEBATE [LA] 3. EURASIAN ELITE S AUTONOMIES IN THE 2000ES.
3 DEPENDENT ELITES- WEAK STATES dependent elites = political class with shortage internal, country based legitimacy [in weak states] Weak states- min-max - unable to control its territory - limited violence management -limited tax collection and financial control mechanisms -military insecurity Cases: Belorus- stong dependency, but relatively strong, Ukraine- dependent, but weaker state, Georgia, Moldova- strong dependency, very weak state
4 FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS a. Who does generate Post-Soviet underdevelopment? b. What are the tools of a low cost energy imperialism in comparison with the classical imperialism of free trade [Ru-EU?] in this region? c. How do networks, webs, or circuits of foreign origin divide the new political class? d. Are members of the Post-Soviet intelligentsia still modernization zealots?
5 POSTCOLONIAL TERRITORIES The postcolonies can be divided into settler, nonsettler, and mixed. Settler postcolonies include countries that are dominated by European settlers with only sparse native populations (e.g., Australia) Nonsettler postcolonies are characterized by large native populations and only a small number of Europeans (e.g., India). Mixed postcolonies refer to countries with both sizable native and European populations (e.g., South Africa and Kenya) POST-SOVIET ANALOGIES SETTLERS- Belorus? Ukraine? NON-SETTLERS- Georgia, Uzbekistan MIXED- Moldova, Kazahstan
6 POST-SOVIET STATE BUILDING- DEVELOPMENTAL PERSPECTIVES I Soft state (Myrdal) Lack of social discipline: general inclination to resist public controls / rules both officials and citizens Why? traditional authority structures destroyed by colonialism habit to oppose colonial authorities soft state = non state
7 POST-SOVIET STATE BUILDING- DEVELOPMENTAL PERSPECTIVES II Overdeveloped state (Alavi) State not grown from its social, political, economic structure but imposed from outside to promote outsiders interests by controlling and subordinating the indigenous This state was inherited after colonialism, an instrument: to controll and subordinate the people to promote the interests of the successors of the colonizers
8 POST-SOVIET STATE BUILDING- DEVELOPMENTAL PERSPECTIVES III Weak state (Migdal) low capacity of state to penetrate society regulate social relationships extract and use resources Why? state versus other sources of social control: organizations / actors which can be precolonial, colonial or postcolonial but do originate from society and are rooted and therefore strong no state autonomy from these powers
9 POST-SOVIET STATE BUILDING- DEVELOPMENTAL PERSPECTIVES IV Predatory State State as engine of predation without providing collective goods in return Matter of degree, depending on relative bargaining power social groups that control resources state structure (democracy, etc.) strategies: increase patrimonial power smash alternative sources of power
10 DEVELOPMENT PARADOXES- ELITE STRATEGIES Development malaise of the 90ies: 2x2 matrix and look at internal and external factors. Domestic-Destiny [structural characteristics] Domestic-Policy External-Destiny External-Policy
11 THE MODEL DEBATE PRECONDITION OF THE SUCCESS- PRACTICAL MODELS NOT FOR COPIES, BUT FOR COMPARISONS THE POST-SOVIETS: a. are not ready-made nation states b. are not natural resource exporters c. not FDI heavens d. very weak internal cohesion in their societies e. in the shadow of a regional power without a really interested strong competitor from outside
12 AVAILABLE MODELS FOR POLICY DEVELOPMENTS Applied, but inadequate: RU, EU Disscussed, but nor really applied: Visegrad 4 [and now in their political crises?] Not discussed, but applicable: Latin America
13 LA STATE MODELS- CARDOSO I
14 LA STATE MODELS- CARDOSO II
15 LA STATE MODELS- CARDOSO III
16 LA STATE MODELS- O DONNELL I
17 LA STATE MODELS- O DONNELL II
18 LA STATE MODELS- O DONNELL III
19 LA AS A METAPHOR IN THE POST-SOVIET SPACE Superficial analogies as starting points for model building: Belorus- Mexico in the 50-60ies Ukraine of Juchenko- Argentina of Peron Georgia- Nicaragua of the 80ies Moldova post-civil war Central American states [Salvador, Honduras]
20 CO-EVOLUTION OF POST SOVIET STATES AND SOCIETAL NETWORKS state attributes and distributions Pop. Size Hierarchy Urban Industries plus Commerce, Finance Hinterland Productivity Dynamics from Structural Cohesion Unit Formation (e.g. polities) Demography/Resources Conflicts SOCIETAL Networks Routes, Capacities Velocities and Magnitudes of trade Organizational transformation of nodes STATES from factions & coalitions to sovereignty - emergent Spatiopolitical units Interference and attempts at regulation Sources of boundary conflicts MARKETS from structurally cohesive k-components - emergent Network units (overlap)
21 Economic institutions and economic performance (1). Log GDP per capita, PPP, in ZAR HTI SDN MLI KWT ARE BHR MLT GRC BHS CHL OMN SAU ARG URY VEN MEX BWA GAB PAN ZAF MYS CRI COL TTOTHA BRA IRN TUR POL TUN ECU PER DOM DZA ROM GTM JORPRY JAM PHL SUR SYR MAR IDN SLV BOL GUY EGY CHN AGO HND ZWE LKA NIC CMR GIN COG SEN CIV PAK GHA VNM MNG TGO KEN UGA MDG BFA BGD NGA ZMB NER YEM MOZ MWI QAT HKG GMB IND ISR RUS KOR CZE HUN BGR LUX USA SGP CHE BEL CAN DNK AUT JPN FRA NOR AUSITA ISL SWE FIN GBR NLD NZL IRL ESP PRT 6 SLE ETH TZA Avg. Protection Against Risk of Expropriation,
22 Economic institutions and economic performance (2). Log GDP per capita, PPP, in NGA PAK GEO MLI MOZ GHA SEN VNM IND MWI KOR VEN ARG MEX COL PAN SVK THA BRA LBN TUR ECU BGR DOM HRV TUN RUS ROM PER KAZ JAM LTU LVA JOR IDN PHL MAR BOL EGY CHN UKR ARM ZWE LKA TZA KEN UGA ZMB MDGBFA CZE URY ZAF MYS HUN POL BEL JPN ITA SGP CHE CANDNK NLD SWE FIN NZL Control of Corruption GRC SVN CHL USA HKG FRA AUT NOR AUS DEU GBR ISR IRL ESP PRT
23 CONCLUSIONS I 1. Core metropolitan interests. Ukraine, Belorus in the RU-EU energy interface, Georgia- Larger Middle East s Rim, Moldova- only local-small borderland interests 2.Selective adaptation of informal techniques of free trade in each periphery 3.New cultures of official mind [Robinson- Gallagher] and minimalistic programs in public goods deliveries.
24 CONCLUSIONS II 4. reversibility/irreversibility of imperial impact and the autochthonous local histories 5. New dependencies of the core on peripherical elites. The Israeli-US Syndrom in Eurasia [relative autonomy of Lukashenko and even Transdnistria]
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