The Fall of the Final Mercantilism
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- Lizbeth McKinney
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1 The Fall of the Final Mercantilism Labour Mobility in the Caribbean and the World, from Arthur Lewis to the 21 st Century Eastern Caribbean Central Bank Michael Clemens November 3, 2010
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4 1 2 Migration happens when development doesn t. Skilled emigration is brain drain. 3 Migration policy can never change.
5 1 2 Migration happens when development doesn t. 3 Migration is a form of development. Skilled emigration is brain drain. Migration policy can never change.
6 1 2 Migration happens when development doesn t. 3 Migration is a form of development. Skilled emigration is brain drain. Skilled emigration is a symptom. Migration policy can never change.
7 1 2 Migration happens when development doesn t. 3 Migration is a form of development. Skilled emigration is brain drain. Skilled emigration is a symptom. Migration policy can never change. Better policy is possible.
8 1 Migration happens when development doesn t. Migration is a form of development.
9
10 Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 10, Year
11 Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 Korea 10,000 China Year
12 Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 10, Year
13 Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 10, Year Colombia Egypt India Ghana DR Congo
14 Income per capita, US$/year 30,000 USA France 20,000 10, Year
15 USA France 24 small Carib. Jamaica Haiti
16 Fraction of US unskilled wage Great Britain 0.4 Germany Ireland 0.2 Norway Sweden Year
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19 Yemen Nigeria Egypt Haiti Cambodia Sierra Leone Ghana Indonesia Pakistan Venezuela Cameroon Vietnam India Jordan Ecuador Bolivia Sri Lanka Nepal Bangladesh Uganda Ethiopia Guyana Philippines Peru Brazil Jamaica Chile Nicaragua Panama Uruguay Guatemala Colombia Paraguay South Africa Turkey Argentina Mexico Belize Thailand Costa Rica Morocco Dominican th percentile 50th percentile 60th percentile 70th percentile 12 R e
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21 . Miami: $292 billion CARICOM: $64 billion OECS: $6 billion
22 2 Skilled emigration is brain drain. Skilled emigration is a symptom.
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24 Grenada St. Vincent & G. St. Kitts & N. Tonga Antigua & B. Dominica Seychelles St. Lucia Belize Barbados Bahamas Malta Guyana Samoa Jamaica Cape Verde Gambia Fiji Mauritius Sierra Leone Haiti Trinidad & Tob. Suriname Liberia Marshall Islands Lebanon Laos Nauru Micronesia Eritrea Cyprus Somalia Tuvalu Palau Guinea-Bissau Kiribati Comoros Sao Tome & P. Iceland San Marino Liechtenstein New Zealand Brunei East Timor Monaco Eq. Guinea Luxembourg Andorra Vanuatu Djibouti Solomon Islands Bahrain Ghana Mozambique Kenya Uganda Angola Sri Lanka Vietnam Afghanistan Dominican Rep. Portugal United Kingdom Mexico Pakistan Nigeria South Africa Bangladesh Brazil United States India China ,000 Population (millions, log scale)
25 ,000 Population (millions, log scale)
26 USA ,000 Population (millions, log scale)
27 USA Brazil ,000 Population (millions, log scale)
28 USA Philippines Brazil ,000 Population (millions, log scale)
29 Kenya USA Philippines Brazil ,000 Population (millions, log scale)
30 What causes loss of professionals? Graduates are not in the Caribbean because they are emigrating. Prices are high because merchants are raising them.
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32 ALB DZA AGO ATG ARG ARM AUS AUT AZE BHS BHR BGD BRB BLR BEL BLZ BEN BOL BIH BWA BRA BGR BFA BDI KHM CMR CAN CPV CAF TCD CHL CHN COL COM COG CRI CIV HRV CYP CZE DNK DJI DMA DOM ECU EGY SLV GNQ ERI EST ETH FJI FIN FRA GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GIN GNB GUY HTI HND HUN ISL IND IDN IRN IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KEN KWT KGZ LAO LVA LBN LSO LTU LUX MDG MWI MYS MLI MLT MRT MUS MEX MNG MAR MOZ NAM NPL NLD NZL NIC NER NOR OMN PAK PAN PNG PRY PER PHL POL PRT KOR MDA ROM RUS RWA WSM SAU SEN SLE SGP SVK SVN SLB ZAF ESP LKA SDN SWZ SWE CHE SYR TJK THA MKD TGO TON TTO TUN TUR TKM UGA UKR GBR TZA USA URY UZB VUT VEN VNM YEM ZMB ZWE GDP per capita (PPP)
33 ALB DZA AGO ATG ARG ARM AUS AUT AZE BHS BHR BGD BRB BLR BEL BLZ BEN BOL BIH BWA BRA BGR BFA BDI KHM CMR CAN CPV CAF TCD CHL CHN COL COM COG CRI CIV HRV CYP CZE DNK DJI DMA DOM ECU EGY SLV GNQ ERI EST ETH FJI FIN FRA GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GIN GNB GUY HTI HND HUN ISL IND IDN IRN IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KEN KWT KGZ LAO LVA LBN LSO LTU LUX MDG MWI MYS MLI MLT MRT MUS MEX MNG MAR MOZ NAM NPL NLD NZL NIC NER NOR OMN PAK PAN PNG PRY PER POL PRT KOR MDA ROM RUS RWA WSM SAU SEN SLE SGP SVK SVN SLB ZAF ESP LKA SDN SWZ SWE CHE SYR TJK THA MKD TGO TON TTO TUN TUR TKM UGA UKR GBR TZA USA URY UZB VUT VEN VNM YEM ZMB ZWE PHL GDP per capita (PPP)
34 ALB DZA AGO ATG ARG ARM AUS AZE BHS BHR BGD BRB BLR BEL BLZ BEN BOL BIH BWA BRA BGR BFA BDI KHM CMR CAN CPV CAF TCD CHL CHN COL COM COG CRI CIV HRV CYP CZE DNK DJI DMA DOM ECU EGY SLV GNQ ERI EST ETH FJI FIN FRA GMB GEO DEU GHA GRC GRD GTM GIN GNB GUY HTI HND HUN ISL IND IDN IRN IRL ISR ITA JAM JPN JOR KAZ KEN KWT KGZ LAO LVA LBN LSO LTU LUX MDG MWI MYS MLI MLT MRT MUS MEX MNG MAR MOZ NAM NPL NLD NZL NIC NER NOR OMN PAK PAN PNG PRY PER POL PRT KOR MDA ROM RUS RWA WSM SAU SEN SLE SGP SVK SVN SLB ZAF ESP LKA SDN SWZ SWE CHE SYR TJK THA MKD TGO TON TTO TUN TUR TKM UGA UKR TZA USA URY UZB VUT VEN VNM YEM ZMB ZWE AUT PHL GBR GDP per capita (PPP)
35 3 Migration policy can never change. Better policy is possible.
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38 New York Times, Nov. 14, 1919
39 New York Times, March 23, 1913
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43 Income per capita, US$/year South Africa ,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
44 South Africa, Comprehensive Welfare Index Blacks 1993 Blacks 2005 Bhorat, Westhuizen, and Goga (2007), University of Cape Town
45 South Africa, Comprehensive Welfare Index Whites 1993 Whites 2005 Bhorat, Westhuizen, and Goga (2007), University of Cape Town
46 Income per capita, US$/year South Africa 1994 World ,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0
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48 100 Haitians who aren t poor Poverty line $10/day
49 100 Haitians who aren t poor
50 Alternatives Performance incentives Subsidize most needed skills Attack domestic barriers Regional centers of excellence Innovate in education finance
51 Three problems Root causes Information barriers Ethics
52 Wages of average US worker Wages of Haitian 3% +1% +680% Borjas Peri
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