LNG Balancing domestic and export needs World Gas Conference Paris, France Maarten Wetselaar Executive Vice President, Shell Integrated Gas, Royal Dutch Shell plc June 3 2015
Appointed the Executive Vice President of Shell Integrated Gas on January 1, 2013 and based in Singapore, Maarten is accountable for delivering and growing Shell s global Integrated Gas business, including Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), Gas-To- Liquid (GTL) and unconventional business outside the Americas. China, Russia, Australia and Qatar are under Maarten s direct leadership as well as key gas operations in over 10 countries. Joining Shell Downstream in 1995, Maarten worked in Europe, Brazil and Africa where he became Vice President of Finance & Information Technology. He then moved to Upstream. He was Vice President Finance in the Middle East, and Vice President Finance and Commercial for Russia/CIS. In 2009 he became Executive Vice President Finance, Upstream International. Maarten is Dutch with an Economics degree from Groningen University and a post-doctorate degree in Controlling from VU University Amsterdam. Maarten is married with three children. In addition to spending time with his family and friends, Maarten likes reading, music, arts, football, sailing and golf..
Countries with natural gas resources have to find ways to balance meeting domestic energy demand with generating revenue by exporting to the global LNG market. In his speech to the World Gas Conference, Maarten Wetselaar focuses on three countries with gas reserves Indonesia, Nigeria and Iraq and their efforts to achieve this balance. Ladies and Gentlemen, good afternoon. It s a pleasure to be here. I d like to spend some time today talking about balance. Specifically, how countries with natural gas resources can balance meeting domestic energy demand with generating revenue by exporting LNG. Of course, countries with energy resources have always had to grapple with this issue. But striking the right balance is now more important than ever. Because demand for electricity from their citizens is increasing day by day. And the growing number of countries importing LNG is boosting demand outside their countries too. These twin developments represent an opportunity as well as a trade-off for policy and decision makers. Demand, impact and access But before that, I d like to look briefly at two major challenges facing the global energy system. Challenges that impact both LNG importing and exporting countries. How to meet increasing demand for energy, driven by a growing global population and rising living standards, while reducing environmental impacts such as greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. The challenge of meeting demand is best illustrated by the reality that one in six people on the planet still lacks access to electricity. Affordable energy access is a human right, which everyone deserves. I am convinced that we can generate more energy for the world s citizens, and at the same time reduce impact on the environment. But it won t happen overnight. Pragmatic thinking is essential as our energy system and economies transition to a lowcarbon future, using multiple sources of energy oil, gas, nuclear, and renewables, and hopefully less coal. Renewables will be a vital source of energy in the future, but the world will need other sources of energy because of a host of challenges that include intermittency, availability, volume, storage, system stability, integration and investment costs. Natural gas has a crucial role to play in partnering with renewables, both now and in the long term. It s abundant. It produces half the carbon dioxide of coal. And, when sold as LNG, gas is a global commodity. Natural gas is also one of the few energy sources that can meet all our energy needs; electricity, heating, plastics and fuels, at reasonable cost to the end user. Supply and demand There s broad agreement within our industry that the outlook for LNG supply is strong. The number of countries exporting LNG will rise, with the bulk of new supply coming from Australia, North America and East Africa. On the flip side, there s more uncertainty when it comes to LNG demand. Yes, demand will grow. But is there going to be enough to match this new supply that s being developed? Shell believes there will be. We expect LNG demand to rise by 5% per year over the next couple of decades. That s more than double the 2% growth in gas demand over the same timeframe. One in six people on the planet still lacks access to electricity. [Shell] expects LNG demand to rise by 5% per year over the next couple of decades. That s more than double the 2% growth in gas demand over the same timeframe.
There are three reasons for this exciting outlook for the LNG industry. Firstly, new markets are opening up. So far in 2015, Pakistan and Egypt have begun importing LNG. Jordan and Poland are expected to start later this year. And by 2030, Shell expects more than 50 countries will be importing LNG, up from around 30 today. Secondly, LNG has evolved from being a fuel for the electricity supply of a limited number of countries to a truly global commodity with an expanding range of uses, including for powering transport. Thirdly, I expect Paris, the city that hosts our conference this year, to be the location where later this year world leaders reinvigorate their commitment to a low carbon future when they meet at COP21. With measurable and ambitious targets for every economy. Any pragmatic and affordable low carbon future has the rapidly expanding use of gas and LNG as a core element. It is our role to assure that the required supplies are available and affordable. For importing countries, LNG is a key source of energy to help meet their rising demand. Exporting countries need to strike a balance. On the one hand, they need to supply power to local people and businesses. This requires building infrastructure, such as pipeline networks, as well as a domestic market structure that encourages investment. And on the other hand, these countries have the opportunity to generate substantial revenue by exporting gas to the global LNG market. I ll illustrate this point by focusing on three countries with gas reserves, their efforts to achieve this balance, and the role of LNG. Indonesia Firstly Indonesia, home to the world s fourth largest population, where the government faces the challenge of supplying energy to people living on thousands of islands. Here, the balance is moving towards importing LNG to meet domestic demand, while at the same time advancing projects to develop the country s gas resources for export further down the line. Diesel is currently the main fuel source in Indonesia. But it s expensive when used to generate power. Here s where LNG comes in, with two big benefits. Gas is cheaper to produce than diesel. And, as you know, it emits fewer emissions. That s why the national electricity company, PLN, has started a project using LNG to fuel numerous gas-fired power plants. This will help meet domestic demand in the many islands that Indonesia comprises of. Such gas-fired power plants typically take much less time to build compared with coal plants. They also take up half as much land. This project is initially focusing on the Central Indonesia region. LNG import facilities and a distribution network of small re-gas terminals will have to be built. Gas, in liquid form, will then be delivered to these terminals by a flotilla of LNG ships. If this phase is successful, it could be replicated to other parts of Indonesia s archipelago. This could also become a model for other island-rich areas to deploy such as the Philippines and the Caribbean. While importing LNG will help meet domestic energy demand, Indonesia is also planning to develop its own gas reserves, and export them as LNG. Inpex, the Japanese oil and gas company, and Shell are working together to develop the Abadi gas field in the Arafura Sea. We are leveraging our floating LNG expertise, as well as our project delivery capabilities, to support the project. Nigeria Next to Nigeria. As you know, it s an important producer of LNG. But Nigeria also faces a huge challenge of increasing power supply to the country s citizens, the majority of whom lack reliable electricity. Diesel is currently the main fuel source in Indonesia. But it s expensive when used to generate power. Here s where LNG comes in, with two big benefits. Gas is cheaper to produce than diesel. And, as you know, it emits fewer emissions.
To put this challenge in perspective, Nigeria has less than 10% of South Africa s electricity generation capacity, despite having more than three times the population. A substantial step-up in domestic gas-fired power generation could result in a stepchange for economic growth and address the energy poverty that still scars many parts of Nigeria. We are committed to working with the Nigerian government to increase gas supply to the domestic market. For example, the Assa North / Ohaji South project has the potential to be one of the largest domestic gas projects in the country, supplying 500MMscf per day. Broad and sustainable domestic growth can be unleashed by further reforming the domestic gas and power markets. Given Nigeria s very substantial gas reserves, the LNG and domestic gas opportunities can be advanced in parallel, and indeed Shell is working with the Nigerian government on both these fronts. Let s remember, the government generates substantial income from exporting Nigeria s gas reserves as LNG. Three quarters of overall government revenue comes from oil and gas. And last year, NLNG Nigeria LNG company provided around 7% of global LNG supply. Together with the government owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation and other shareholders in NLNG, we re also looking at ways to further expand the plant on Bonny Island with a seventh liquefaction train, so Nigeria can maintain its strategic position in the growing global LNG market. Iraq The third country I ll focus on is Iraq, where the scales are balanced in favour of meeting domestic power demand. Then, and only then, will the country s gas resources be used to generate revenue, by being exported as LNG or by pipeline. There is huge demand for electricity in Iraq. To meet this demand and stop the blackouts many experience on a daily basis, a key government priority is increasing the use of gas for domestic supply. A lot of the gas produced during oil production in Iraq is currently flared. Not only is this is bad for the environment. It also deprives Iraqis of gas which could be used to power their homes. At the Basrah Gas Company, Shell is working with South Gas Company and Mitsubishi to capture gas, so it can be used in domestic power generation. Today, Basrah Gas Company s gas processing capacity is around 650 MMscf/d. By the end of this decade, it is expected to grow to an estimated 2 bcf/d. This will not only be a very substantial contribution to energy security for the people of Iraq, it will also avoid around 68 mpta of CO 2 emissions. This is equivalent to annual emissions from more than 14 million cars. Conclusion In conclusion: faced with this growing demand, countries with gas resources must strike a balance. Between providing access to responsible energy to their own people, and supplying low-carbon gas to energyhungry countries. This balance has never been easy to achieve. And with energy demand going firmly in one direction, the pressure is more acute than ever. Governments should ensure that domestic markets are structured to attract investment and gas supply. On top of that the expanding global LNG market offers resources holders an opportunity to grow both domestic markets as well as exports, and strike the right balance. Thank you very much. A substantial stepup in domestic gasfired power generation could result in a stepchange for economic growth and address the energy poverty that still scars many parts of Nigeria. There is huge demand for electricity in Iraq. To meet this demand and stop the blackouts many experience on a daily basis, a key government priority is increasing the use of gas for domestic supply.
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