Ruimtelijke planning in tijden van klimaatsverandering Eric Koomen Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam/ Geodan Next Nascholingscursus Water, rivieren en GIS' 3 april 2008
Outline Climate change climate and land use interact perspective and projections Adapting spatial planning mitigation and adaptation dealing with uncertainties (LANDS project) flood risk management (AVV project) Conclusion GIS and spatial analysis
Climate and land-use interact (US CCSP, 2004)
Climate and land-use interact Land use (human activity) influences: atmospheric composition (emission/fixation) terrestrial radiation Climate change influences land use: coastal zones (sea level rise) river basins (flood/drought) agricultural production (volume/type) natural vegetation (ecosystems)
Perspective Geological perspective:
Perspective Regional variation:
Perspective Opposition:
Perspective Consensus of thousands of scientists: human influence 'very likely' temperature increases 1.8-4 degrees / 100 jr sea level rises 18 59 cm, or more possibly more wind and precipitation
Projections Future scenarios:
Projections: sea level rise may increase 35-85 cm in 2100
Projections: river discharge more extreme
Projections: precipitation more diverse +1 deg. C (2050) +2 deg. C (2050) G G+ W W+ Precipat. summer Precipat. winter Evapor. Summer +3-10 +6-19 0 +7 +7 +14 +3 +8 +7 +15
Projections: precipitation more extreme More often, more extreme, e.g.:
Projections Soil subsidence:
Planning: mitigation Limiting climate change calls for drastic communal action 50-60% emissie reductie!
Planning: adaptation Cope with projected changes: water management retention areas safe construction adapt sewage system coastal defence adapt spatial policies (i.e. Ecological Main Structure, urbanisation) changes in agricultural sector?
Hot research topic Various studies (see also: www.klimaatportaal.nl): Aandacht voor Veiligheid (RWS, Attention for Safety) focus on water safety in 2050/2100 Adaptation program Ruimte en Klimaat (Space and Climate, 4 departments) integral measures www.programmaark.nl Climate for Space ( Klimaat voor Ruimte, knowledge institutes involved) www.klimaatvoorruimte.nl Nederland Later (MNP, Netherlands later) exploring possible spatial consequences
Downscaling global change: LANDS Designing national land-use adaptation and mitigation strategies under changing climate conditions Many partners, interdisciplinary, large and long-lasting: 2005-2011 Government-funded project in 'Climate changes spatial planning' program that consists of over 30 projects
LANDS - objectives developing a consistent scenario-framework delivering baseline outlooks for 2040: integrated land use, adaptations for nature, water en urban functions to be added later integrating sector-specific adaptation measures from other projects improving the model: 100m version, calibration/validation, visualisation, indicators, conflict analysis, data-infrastructure
LANDS - overview 4 Conflict/ opportunity indicators KNMI scenarios LANDS scenarios Land Use Scanner Land Use simulations 1 2 3 WLO scenarios Sector (e.g. water) 7 start of new run Sector models and analysis 5 Claims and/or suitability maps 6 LANDS Supplying projects Sector (e.g. nature) Sector models and analysis 5 Claims and/or suitability maps 6 Sector (e.g. agriculture ) Sector models and analysis Claims and/or suitability maps 5 6 Subsidiary projects
LANDS - scenarios Quantitative assumptions regarding climate, population, economy and society are combined from KNMI and WLO +5.8 +1.4
LANDS - scenarios Socio-economic changes are even more difficult to asses than climatic changes
LANDS - Land Use Scanner Model that simulates future land use for preparation and ex-ante evaluation of policy reports Typical applications: scenario analysis trend analysis impact assessment
LANDS - model characteristics an operational information system for land-use planning since 1997 GIS based (100m or 500m grid) integrated (all types of land use) exhaustive (full country) satellite structure (external claims) cross-sectional (static approach) policy oriented (applied science) two approaches (logit and optimisation) economic analogy (balances supply and demand)
LANDS - model layout
Initial land-use simulations
Sector-specific adaptation measures Several projects are now working on the development of adaptation strategies, e.g. workshops on water management: creative sessions, but a challenge to incorporate results in subsequent simulations
Sector-specific adaptation measures
Sector-specific adaptation measures agriculture project- LEI Land use 2050 without pumping regional case study energy crops Friesland uses A1, W+ scenarios Land Use Scanner needs upscaling to national level
AVV (safety first) - building a DSS
AVV - project layout Users Socioeconomic scenarios Climate change scenarios Strategy Investment moment Effect indicators Costs & Benefits Evaluation Global economy Regional Communities Sea-level rise (cm/ year) River discharge m 3 /sec Coastal summer Precipitation (mm) Do nothing Business As Usual Dwelling mound 2015 2040 2100 Flood probability Potential damage Potential number of victims Risk (probability * damage) Cost & Benefits 2040-2100-far future Multi Criteria Analysis Surge (m) Spatial planning Graphics symbology: Choice window Variable Pre-set Output Feedback
AVV - safety strategies Terpen, islands or extended coastline: http://player.nos.nl/index.php/media/play/tcmid/tcm:5-360346/
AVV - integrated strategies
AVV - evaluating flood risk Risk = probability * damage = ( flood frequency * water depth * damage function ) aggregate 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 Damage (Meuro) 0.60 * 0.50 0.40 0.30 wonen_stedelijk wonen_groen_stedelijk wonen_landelijk recreatie werken zeehavens natuur akkerbouw = > 0.20 0.10 0.00 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 Depth (m)
AVV - comparing strategies
Conclusion GIS in our case: storage and manipulation of spatial data spatial analysis spatial modelling presentation of results
Further reading Many publications available from: www.feweb.vu.nl/gis (click LANDS) or www.klimaatvoorruimte.nl