Climate-proofing freshwater supply in the Netherlands
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1 Climate-proofing freshwater supply in the Netherlands ECCA februari 2013 Ron Franken, Jelle van Minnen, Willem Ligtvoet 1
2 Climate-proofing freshwater supply in the Netherlands Leading questions 1. Is freshwater shortage increasing? 2. If so, where? 3. What are options for - reducing fresh water demand? - increasing fresh water supply? conclusion Given the still large uncertainties in climate change; start with exploring options for increasing efficiency and flexibility in national and regional water systems. 2
3 Regions supplied by the national water system Regions with and without fresh water supply 3
4 Freshwater supply distribution via national water system Rhine: 90% fresh water 4
5 Operational procedure water shortage main water system Extreem dry summer: 1976 Dry summer: 2003 Watermanagement in the Netherlands. Rijkswaterstaat (2011) 5
6 Update Effects of climate change in the Netherlands Observed changes Projected changes Opportunities & risks Sectors/chapters: Climate System Water: safety & supply & quality Nature & biodiversity Agriculture Health Tourism EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE NETHERLANDS - UPDATE
7 Strategic Assessment Climate adaptation in the Dutch delta Identification of strategic options: Flood protection Freshwater supplies Nature & biodiversity Urban development Priorities based on earlier study: PBL 2009 Contribution to: Dutch Deltaprogram ( ) 7
8 Effect of climate change in the Netherlands Observed changes: Fresh water demand - Dry periods (evaporation) - Sea level rise Fresh water supply - River discharges - Precipitation 8
9 Effects of climate change in the Netherlands Projected trends In summer period (W+ scenario): Decreasing precipitation Increasing evaporation Decreasing river discharge (Rhine, Meuse) Increasing salt intrusion (Nieuwe Waterweg) 9
10 Climate changes in the NL: projected trends Precipitation: large uncertainty L Pr Uncertainty: precipitation deficit 10
11 Climate changes in the NL: projected trends Sealevel rise: large uncertainty No accelleration of sealevel rise measured yet 11
12 Freshwater supplies related to climate change Problem: in most dry scenario (W+) tipping point near 2050 but, if water demand increases, before 2050 Challenge: sufficient fresh water in dry summers Options for extra water supply Options for reducing water demand What are options for: - national water authority - regional water authorities - users (agriculture, industry) 12 12
13 Options for increasing freshwater supply Since 2nd Delta Committee strong focus on IJsselmeer (water level meter) New Waterway: 80% of Rhine flow PBL: Focus on better use of Rhine water. 13
14 Flexibility in freshwater supply Small water level fluctuation in IJsselmeer Explore costs & benefits of options for better use of Rhine flow: - more effective options preventing sea intrusion? - flexibility in managing river discharges? 14
15 Matching demand & supply: need for strong rise of water level in the IJsselmeer? K.1 = + 0,2 (m) L.3b(W+) = + 1,50 (m) 15
16 Flexibility in fresh water demand? Main uses are for water management and agriculture No overview of potential effects of measures per region Options to address drought risks without extra water supplies: Large-scale water storage in regions: not cost-effective Accept drought losses, or insure them Adjust regional water management: seems no regret Studies indicate: Reduction in water use of 40 80% seems possible at low costs, for instance by accepting flexible salinisation standards in extreme dry years 16
17 PBL advise Given the still large uncertainties in climate change; I. Increase flexibility in water systems II. Increase efficiency of water use for both national and regional waters Informatation: - PBL reports: - Dutch Delta programme ( ) 17
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