APRIL, 2009 EXTERNAL SCAN 1
2008 2018 ECONOMIC TRENDS 2
1987 2008 ECONOMIC TRENDS Unemployment and Enrollment 240.00% For LAHC, Rising Unemployment is associated with Rising Enrollment 220.00% 200.00% 180.00% 160.00% 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 198 7 1988 8 1989 9 1990 199 1 199 2 199 3 1994 199 5 199 6 199 7 1998 1999 9 2000 0 200 1 200 2 200 3 2004 200 5 200 6 200 7 2008 2009 * Unemployment Enrollment *Spring 2009 estimate Sources: LACCD Office of Institutional Research; CA Economic Dev. Dept. 3
2008 2018 ECONOMIC TRENDS Changes in Industries and Occupations So far, Projections that reflect the recession are unavailable 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% Percent change in employees from Feb. '08 to Feb '09 By Industry % change Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; http://www.bls.gov 4
2008 2018 ECONOMIC TRENDS Unemployment and Educational Attainment In March 2009, the national unemployment rate was 85 8.5, but Educational background is a major factor. Unemployment Rate by Educational Level, National Data, March 2009 14 12 10 Rate 8 6 4 2 0 Less than a high HS graduates, no Some college or Bachelor's degree or school diploma college associate degree higher Rate 13.3 9 7.2 4.3 Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; http://www.bls.gov/ 5
2008 2018 ECONOMIC TRENDS SUMMARY Highdemand for classes will continuethroughatthrough least Spring 2010 perhaps Fall 2010. Industrial and Occupational Projections will be hard to find during the recession. Education remains the best defense against unemployment. 6
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS 7
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Numbers Our Service Area is projected to grow by 4%, the state is projected to grow by 7%. A year ago, the percentages were 6% and 11% respectively 108 106 Percent Change 104 102 100 Service Area CA. 98 96 2008 2018 Year Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009 8
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS High School Seniors The number of High School Seniors in our Service Area will peak in 2010 and then decline Source: LACCD Office of Institutional Research and Information 9
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Our Service Area is Aging Our Service Area population is aging Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009 10
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Age Distribution Alternate View Our Service Area population is aging Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009 11
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS While Our Service Area Population is Aging, g, Our Students Aren t 3,000 2,500 f Students Number Of 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 1999 2008 0 Concurrent H.S. Under 20 20 24 25 34 35 and over Age Source: LACCD Office of Institutional Research and Information, Information Digest, February 2009. http://research.laccd.edu/research/ 12
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS So, putting the two together,,you get something like this Age Breakdown of Students and Service Area tion 15+ years old % of popula 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 15 20 20 2424 25 34 35 54 54 55+ Fall 2008 students 34.2% 30.8% 19.4% 12.5% 3.0% 2008 service area 9.9% 8.8% 17.3% 37.4% 26.5% 2018 service area 7.7% 8.4% 17.9% 32.7% 33.2% Source: LACCD Office of Institutional Research and Information, Information Digest, February 2009. http://research.laccd.edu/research/ 13
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Ethnicity In our Service Area, current trends continue Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009 14
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Ethnicity Alternate View In our Service Area, current trends continue Source: EMSI Complete Employment - Spring 2009 15
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS Ethnicity of Our Students 4,000 3,500 Numbe er Of Students 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 1999 2008 500 0 African Amer Asian Hispanic White Ethnicity Source: LACCD Office of Institutional Research and Information, Information Digest, February 2009. http://research.laccd.edu/research/ 16
2008 2018 DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS SUMMARY Over the next 10 years, the population in our service area will grow by 4%, the state will grow by 7%. Over the next 10 years, the population in our service area will age and the number of people in the age groups of traditionalcollegestudents willdecline decline. The percentage of Hispanics/Latinos and Asians will increase, while the percentage of whites and African Americans will decrease. 17
2008 2018 TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS 22
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Data from the 2007 student survey at Los Angeles Harbor College: More than 86% of our students t often or sometimes use a computer at home to do school work. Eighty two percent (82%) often or sometimes use the Internet for an assignment. Another 76% utilized the Internet to apply, register, check grades, and add or drop classes. 23
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Excerpts from the National Education Technology Plan (2004) 90 percent of children between ages 5 and 17 use computers. 94 percent of online teens use the Internet for schoolrelated research. The largest group of new users of the Internet from 2000 2002 were 2 5 year olds. About 25 percent of all K 12 public schools now offer some form of e learning or virtual school instruction. Within the next decade every state and most schools will be doing so. 24
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES Excerpts from the National Education Technology Plan (cont.) Today s students are very technology savvy, feel strongly about the positive value of technology and rely upon technology as an essential and preferred component of every aspect of their lives. Students are not just using technology differently today but tare approaching their lives and their dailyactivitiesactivities differently because of the technology. As students get older, their use of technology becomes more sophisticated, but, comparatively, the younger students are on a fast track to becoming greater technology users and advocates. The access point for technology use, particularly for older students, is home focused, not school focused. 25
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGES LAUSD Instructional Technology Plan Strategic planning ggoals for the Instructional Technology Planning project are offered below: Curriculum Identify student technology standards and deliver them equitably to all students. Identify and implement approaches for using technology resources to support the District s goals and learning priorities. Establish electronic access to appropriate informational and learning resources from school to homes and community centers. Provide e learning opportunities for remediation, acceleration, e learning opportunities for remediation, acceleration, and possible reduction of class size. Source: LAUSD Instructional Technology Plan 26
TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS SUMMARY At least 75% of our students use computers for school work. 90% of children and teenagers use computers. They rely upon technology asan an essential and preferred component of every aspect of their lives. Even LAUSD has a plan for integrating technology and e learning into their operations. 27
COMPETITION IN PHYSICAL SPACE 28
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OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA LAHC and our feeder high schools Feeder High Schools LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE 1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California 90744-2397 Service Area Boundary 31
OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA LAHC and our feeder high schools and other Public Colleges Public Colleges Feeder High Schools LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE 1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California 90744-2397 Service Area Boundary 32
OUR PHYSICAL SERVICE AREA LAHC and our feeder high schools and Private Agencies that offer Educational Services Feeder High Schools Public Colleges LOS ANGELES HARBOR COLLEGE 1111 Figueroa Place Wilmington, California 90744-2397 Private Agencies Service Area Boundary 33
COMPETITION IN PHYSICAL SPACE SUMMARY The Pacific Ocean to the west and south. Bigger colleges with lower over heads to the north and east. Hundreds of other organizations w/in our service area that offer education. 34
COMPETITION IN VIRTUAL SPACE 35
COMPETITION OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA Moderate Growth in Online Classes 350 Percent Change in Online Enrollments 300 250 Percent Change 200 150 East Harbor Mission Trade Tech 100 LACCD CA cc's* 50 *Fall only 0 2003 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 2007 08 Academic Year 36
COMPETITION OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA Rapid Growth in Online Classes 2500 Percent Change in Online Enrollments 2000 1500 1000 Harbor CA cc's* City LACCD Pierce South west West 500 0 2003 04 2004 05 2005 06 2006 07 2007 08 Academic Year 37
COMPETITION OUR VIRTUAL SERVICE AREA Growth in Online Degrees Four colleges in the LACCD are now developing or offering online degrees. Seventy four percent of the colleges surveyed in the 2008 DistanceEducation Surveyoffer online degrees. More Los Angeles Harbor College students who transfer to private colleges/universities in California transfer to the University of Phoenix than any other private college or university. 38
COMPETITION IN VIRTUAL SPACE SUMMARY Online classes and degrees are the fastest growing part of higher education (and soon, K 12 education). Our students see online programs as a viable choice in continuing their education. There will be increasing pressure to move from online classes t to a it virtual campus. 39