Legacy 2035 The preparation of this document was financed in part by the United States Department of Transportation through the Federal Transit Administration, the Missouri Department of Transportation, and the Illinois Department of Transportation. The contents of this report reflect the opinions, findings and conclusions of the author. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the funding agencies.
Legacy 2035 Table of Contents Table of Contents Section I Background........................................1 Section II Regional Trends and Future Challenges..................7 Section III Focus Areas for Problem Solving: Strategies for the Future..19 Section IV Transportation Investment Plan........................97 Section V Air Quality Conformity.............................115
Legacy 2035 Background 1 SECTION I BACKGROUND Transportation Planning and Public Policy Legacy 2035 is the fourth major update of the metropolitan transportation plan that was initially adopted in 1994 by the chief local elected officials of the bi-state St. Louis region. Built upon the foundation established in the 1994 plan and subsequent updates, Legacy 2035 is a long-range vision for how our region s surface transportation system will develop over the next three decades. The Board of Directors of the East-West Gateway Council of Governments the region s federally designated Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) has the responsibility to oversee the development of short- and long-range transportation plans for the region, and to select the capital projects and operational initiatives that will qualify for federal funds to best carry out the goals and objectives of these plans. The MPO serves in this capacity through certification from the U.S. Department of Transportation and under joint agreements between the states of Missouri and Illinois and the eight counties of the region: the City of St. Louis, St. Charles, St. Louis, Franklin, Jefferson, Madison, Monroe and St. Clair counties. The metropolitan transportation plan provides the planning and investment framework that guides how decisions are made about the region s surface transportation system. Every transportation project in the region financed with federal funds must be included in Legacy 2035, or be consistent with the principles of the plan. The development of Legacy 2035 was prompted in part by recent changes in federal transportation policy. In August 2005, Congress passed the Safe Accountable Flexible Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU) just months after the Council had adopted the previous metropolitan, or long-range, transportation plan. SAFETEA-LU maintains many of the core policies and programs initially established in the pivotal Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA) and its successor the Transportation Equity Act of the 21st Century of 1998 (TEA-21). SAFETEA-LU retains a primary focus on preservation of the existing system first, and maintains the requirement of fiscal constraint, which emanates from principles of responsible governance, and of coordinated intermodal planning. These are all important principles that significantly departed from previous policies that primarily focused on expanding roadway capacity and completing the Interstate system. SAFETEA-LU builds upon those principles, but it also includes a number of new provisions. The U.S. Department of Transportation issued federal guidance early in 2006 requiring that all metropolitan transportation plans, and transportation improvement programs become compliant with the new law by July 1, 2007. These new provisions have been addressed through the development of Legacy 2035. Following the adoption of Legacy 2035, the metropolitan transportation plan will be updated every four years. Regardless of the legal purpose for the plan, each update provides an opportunity to re-evaluate regional transportation policies and practices, and to develop a plan that reflects current understanding of the region s transportation investment needs and financial realities. Legacy 2035 carries forth the spirit and direction of previous plans by recognizing that the central purpose of transportation investment is to improve the quality of life for citizens of the region. Within this context, transportation is recognized not as an end itself, but rather the means of accomplishing our region s social, economic, and environmental goals.
2 Background Legacy 2035 Regional Goals Legacy 2035 extends its vision over a 28-year horizon. Although there are many uncertainties about the future, one thing will remain constant the citizen s desire for a high quality of life. In developing a long-range plan it is necessary that policymakers, citizens, and regional planning partners consider past trends, current realities, and future possibilities, and anticipate what solutions will be necessary to address future transportation needs. The adopted regional goals that guide the plan follow. strong position in the national and global marketplace, ensured through strategic economic development, competitive employment opportunities, a well-trained workforce, and responsible asset management. sustainable and growing economy grounded in the wise and coordinated use of physical, environmental, social, and agricultural resources. clean and healthy environment. Safe neighborhoods, communities, and thoroughfares Resources for learning and personal development, accessible at every point of the life cycle. Varied and valued outlets for recreation and cultural expression. A growing, diversified population, with equity, choice, and opportunity for all citizens. Efficient and balanced patterns of growth and development that respect the land, the citizenry, the history, and the strategic location of the St. Louis region. Framework for Decision-Making Simply stated, the regional transportation planning process is a problem solving exercise. The process begins by identifying transportation problems, analyzing those problems, carefully considering a range of solutions to address those problems, and then selecting and implementing the most cost-effective and appropriate solutions. The Council uses a multi-step, integrated decision-making process in which the procedures for planning and the criteria for selecting projects all link back to the policies and goals set out in the regional transportation plan. This process has six major integrated components: the regional transportation plan, transportation project planning, regional project selection, project implementation, project monitoring and performance evaluation, and public engagement. The components of the process are illustrated in Figure 1-1. Legacy 2035 is the keystone of the transportation planning process. As such, the plan articulates the region s priorities and creates the overarching planning framework that will guide future transportation decisions. Although the plan is required by federal law, the ultimate function of the plan is not regulatory. The plan s fundamental purpose is to ensure that public resources are used in ways that best meet the economic, community, and environmental needs of the St. Louis region. The Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) is the short-term implementation element of the Legacy 2035. This document is updated every year and covers a four-year period. All projects selected for inclusion in the TIP must be consistent with the priorities of the long-range plan. The current TIP covers the fiscal years 2007-2010 and includes projects costing $2.8 billion in federal, state, and local funds. To ensure that public resources are being spent efficiently, the Council and its partners monitor progress in the implementation of scheduled projects over the duration of the TIP.
Legacy 2035 Background 3 Figure 1-1 Transportation Planning Process
4 Background Legacy 2035 To ensure consistency between the Council s plans and programs, six focus areas were established to help align each step of the planning process with the goals of the regional plan. The inherent assumption in using the focus areas is that any progress in those areas will contribute to the achievement of the region s goals. The six focus areas are: 1 Preservation of existing infrastructure Safety and security in travel Congestion Management Access to opportunity Sustainable development Efficient movement of goods Measuring the Performance of the Plan Each year hundreds of millions of dollars are invested in the transportation system with the intent of moving the region closer to achieving the plan s goals and policy priorities. Measuring the performance of the system is critical to evaluate how well these goals and priorities are being achieved. Performance measures are indicators of effectiveness related to important issues or concerns of those making investment decisions. By developing regional measures of performance, planners and decision makers are also able to evaluate the impacts of planned improvements to ensure that the region s investment strategy supports regional goals and objectives, and to measure performance outcomes over time. This is referred to as performance-based planning. 1 Transportation Redefined included Resource Conservation as a seventh focus area. It is now incorporated in the Sustainable Development focus area. Performance-based planning improves decision-making by increasing the linkage between planning goals and investment decisions. By incorporating the results of performance monitoring into the planning process, it informs decision-makers of the how the region s transportation system is performing today, and of tradeoffs between different investment alternatives, thereby providing a basis for more strategic short-and long-term investment decisions. There are many challenges to developing a comprehensive performance monitoring process. The initial challenge is defining a meaningful set of measures that provide the most relevant information to the public and decision makers. A study on performance measurement conducted for the Council by Cambridge Systematics, Inc. in 1998 provided a basis for establishing that process in St. Louis. Perhaps a greater challenge, however, is developing the data to support that effort. One of the primary tools for evaluating system performance and the effects of planned investments is the travel demand model. The Council recently completed a major overhaul of this planning tool. To support this effort, the Council commissioned household travel and on-board transit surveys in 2002. The household survey examined the travel behavior of 5,000 households in the region; the on-board survey examined the trip-making behavior of 15,000 transit riders. These surveys are a rich resource of information for understanding regional travel patterns, and they provided the data necessary to build a new generation of travel demand models. The Council has also invested in the development of a new state of the art land use evolution and impact assessment model, locally termed the Gateway Blueprint Model, which is integrated with the travel demand model. The Blueprint model will be useful for evaluating the social, economic, and environmental impacts of various transportation investment decisions. These new modeling applications will significantly enhance the Council s ability to produce meaningful information to support regional planning and decision-making.
Legacy 2035 Background 5 A State of the Transportation System report was prepared in 2005, in conjunction with the previous plan. This report summarizes the findings of a comprehensive evaluation of how the existing transportation system is performing in meeting the needs of the region relative to each of the six focus areas used to organize decision-making. Key performance measures included in the report were updated to support the development of Legacy 2035. The State of the Transportation System report will be updated regularly to support the Council s long- and shortrange planning efforts. Citizen Engagement Citizen engagement is another key element of the Council s planning process. One the most fundamental principles of planning is for all those who have a stake in the transportation system commuters, community residents, business representatives, students, transit riders, cyclists and pedestrians, truck drivers, public safety officials, consumers of health and human service, and others to be involved in significant and ongoing ways in the process through which transportation problems are identified and solutions developed. The Council has become increasingly proactive in engaging citizens in regional problemsolving activities over the last decade. In 2004, the Council adopted an updated citizen engagement strategy. The strategy is currently being updated to reflect the Council s most current activities. This strategy hinges on four important principles: Citizens should know how decisions are made about the investment of tax dollars in public projects. Individuals and communities impacted by the outcome of regional decisions want to have their opinions and perspectives taken into consideration. Planners cannot maintain current and relevant knowledge about regional problems without learning from citizens directly affected. The best plans are those that reflect a reasonable balance between local and regional priorities, such as equity, costeffectiveness, and metropolitan growth. The strategy has four essential components: communication, consultation, cooperation, and community-based outreach, in addition to an evaluation component. The communication component focuses on utilizing the Council s publications to get the word out to the regional community. Those publications, the quarterly newsletter Gateways and the weekly emailed or faxed Local Government Briefings are widely distributed. The Council s website is also an effective tool to reach citizens throughout the region. Consultation consists of stakeholder interaction with the Council s standing committees, public meetings held for plan updates, and a We re Listening tour across the region. To inform the development of Legacy 2035 consultation efforts were expanded to include a much more diverse group of stakeholders than had previously been involved in the process to address a variety of issues, including developing long-term strategies for mitigating environmental impacts of infrastructure investment; improving consistency between transportation improvements and state and local planned growth and economic development; identifying needs associated with movement of freight; and improving connectivity between the surface transportation system and regional intermodal assets. Cooperation refers to joint planning activities in which citizens play an integral role, such as has occurred in the development of the Bicycle and Pedestrian Plan, the Regional Transportation Safety Initiative, the Gateway Blueprint Initiative, and the Coordinated Human Services Public Transportation Plan, which all help to inform ongoing planning activities. Community-based outreach strives to include groups of citizens who have been historically under-served by regional systems. Those groups include low-income workers and job seekers, older
6 Background Legacy 2035 adults, and persons with disabilities. In 2004, the Council contracted with the Starkloff Disability Institute to lead a series of activities to see that the needs and perspectives of individuals with disabilities are reflected in regional policies and actions identified in the plan. The Council is currently taking the lead on developing a Coordinated Human Services Public Transit Plan. This plan will build upon the 2004 Starkloff study, broadening its focus to identify the region s public transportation needs relative to transit dependent low-income households, as well as the disabled and mobility challenged. A Legacy for the Future The primary goal of Legacy 2035, as the name implies, is to create a legacy for the St. Louis region that provides future generations with the foundation they need to sustain economic growth, increase social equity, preserve valuable environmental resources, and improve quality of life.
Legacy 2035 Transportation Challenges and Trends 7 SECTION II TRANSPORTATION CHALLENGES AND TRENDS Legacy 2035 takes the St. Louis region forward to the year 2035. To consider what can happen in that time span, turn the calendar back to 1979. Where were you in 1979? Think of work, school, play, where you spent your free time, where you shopped and how you gathered your news and information. What did you think 2007 would be like? Let s do a reality check. Consider these current accoutrements of daily life: laptop computers, the Internet, e-mail, MetroLink, an Automated Teller Machine, a CAT scan, a sports utility vehicle, pocket-sized cellular phones, anti-lock brakes, universal 911, wheelchair-accessible public buses, in-car GPS devices, compact discs, digital cameras and DVD players. These things are nearly ubiquitous in St. Louis in 2007 some might find it hard to imagine life without them but none was widely available three decades ago. So, how far ahead is 2035? Try this: it s length of time short enough so you can predict some developments reasonably well, but 28 years is long enough to be outside the range of what humans and computers can precisely predict. For Legacy 2035, the implications are clear. With so many hard-to-predict changes bound to happen, how can you possibly make transportation plans for the next 28 years? Such plans are made with the belief that the future is shaped by a series of uncertainties. The challenge of Legacy 2035 is to plan despite those uncertainties. A second big challenge is that the nature of transportation investments has changed. The focus is no longer on building large projects to increase the capacity of roads and highways. Preserving and maintaining the transportation system is where most of the money is spent. From the 1950s through the mid- 90s, the purpose of federal, state and to some degree local transportation investments was to build the infrastructure that was adequate and appropriate to keep the nation s economy moving and to preserve the national defense. At the end of the 20th Century, the Interstate Highway System was complete. Most of the state, county and local roads needed to support mobility had been constructed. Some major projects remained on the region s wish list, but the overall emphasis shifted from building new roadways to improving the condition, operation, safety and accessibility of the existing system. That will continue for the next 25 years. It may take a seismic shift in thinking to adapt an existing transportation system to the 21st Century when many of its component parts were built 10, 25 and 50 years ago. Shaping the Future Legacy 2035 establishes how challenges can be met. Doing so will require an ongoing assessment of regional conditions, continuous monitoring and adjustments of system performance, dialogue among those with a stake in the outcomes, and a series of strategic decisions by the region s elected officials. Basically, here is how the process works: Municipalities, counties, states or transit operators identify problems and design specific projects to address them. If these projects are of any appreciable size or cost, chances are they need federal funds. To demonstrate a local commitment, the governmental entity proposing the project commits some of its own resources to qualify for the needed federal funding. The project design is submitted to East-West Gateway as an application, where it is evaluated, scored and ranked according to criteria that are consistent with the goals of the long-range plan. The East-West Gateway staff prepares a priority list of projects and submits them to the East-West Gateway Board of
8 Transportation Challenges and Trends Legacy 2035 Directors for approval. The 24 voting members of the Board select which projects are funded. This process can be used effectively to make sure that the transportation system of 2035 meets the future needs of the region. Building the needed flexibility into the planning and decisionmaking process is up to the participants. Toward that end, the trends and challenges identified in this section can be used as a list of ongoing questions and considerations. They can be used as a point of reference for: Local public entities as they identify problems and design improvement projects, Members of the public as they participate in the planning process, East-West Gateway staff as they conduct analyses and make recommendations, and The Board of Directors as it evaluates the system and makes decisions about transportation investments. The rapidly changing world of the 21st Century makes it imperative that the long range plan be considered a living document, meriting continuous communication and cooperation among the region s elected officials, East-West Gateway staff and all those regional players who have an interest in the transportation system. A Long-Term Challenge for the Region These computer outputs are referred to as planning assumptions. They provide the basic framework for major transportation project selection and development. The assumptions for 2035, as well as five-year interim milestones, are provided on the following pages. As looking back to 1979 showed, many powerful yet far less predictable developments will shape the years until 2035. Economic, social, technological, environmental and political factors largely outside the region s control, such as the globalization of formerly local economies, will come from all directions. Other factors, such as an aging population and an increasing number of commuters with physical disabilities, will need local attention. There is no way to precisely measure how these forces will affect transportation needs and desires, but there is a need to anticipate the possibilities and be ready to make adjustments. Who will the residents of our region be? East-West Gateway forecasts that approximately 2.84 million people will live in the eight-county region by 2035. This represents a 10.5 percent increase over estimates of 2.57 million for the year 2007. That is considered slow-to-moderate growth compared to the nation s other urban areas. Figure 2-1 shows how St. Louis has compared to peer regions in the recent past with respect to population and employment growth. Figure 2-2 shows population forecasts for the St. Louis region through the year 2035. In the past few decades, technological advances have given transportation planners additional tools to better prepare policy makers for these decisions. East-West Gateway computers can take millions of pieces of data and process them with ideas about trends and significant events and then generate various scenarios on what to expect in terms of population, land use, commuting patterns and air quality.
Legacy 2035 Transportation Challenges and Trends 9 Figure 2-1 The average age for a St. Louisan in 2035 will be higher than it is today. The aging of the post World War II generation will transform the region and the nation from a perceived youth culture to a silver culture. Figure 2-2 Population 2000-2035 Source: East-West Gateway Council of Governments Although the following trends may not be precisely quantified, they need to be considered as 2035 approaches: Those between 65 and 79 will continue to be part of the labor force in some capacity longer than their counterparts today. In addition, many of the region s older citizens live alone. Of St. Louis population over the age of 65, 31 percent live alone. If that reality persists, these seniors will need a transportation system that supports continuing mobility and flexible work schedules, without compromising safety and privacy. At the other end of the age spectrum, young adults will make up a larger segment of the region s population in 2035 than they do today. Almost one in three drivers on St. Louis roads in 2035 will either be at the beginning (age 16-24) or near the end (age 70-79) of his driving career.
10 Transportation Challenges and Trends Legacy 2035 The segment of our population over 80 will be the fastest growing between now and 2035. Those who turn 80 in 2035 would have been born in 1955, just as America plunged into its serious love affair with the automobile. How intelligent transportation technologies might keep these drivers on the road longer is unknown. Other alternative forms of transportation undoubtedly will be needed. Figure 2-3 Population Age Structure 2000 and 2035 St. Louis Region With ever-improving medical and assistive technologies coupled with an aging population, there will be a larger portion of the population with a physical or mental disability. In 2005, more than 15 percent of the population fit that definition. Better educated and capable than ever before, the disabled of the future will expect to participate fully in community and economic life, and the transportation system will have to accommodate those expectations. Source: East-West Gateway Council of Governments
Legacy 2035 Transportation Challenges and Trends 11 Although the metropolitan area still lags behind peer regions in the number of foreign immigrants and refugees who have settled here, immigration drives much of the new population growth in the St. Louis region. More than half of the increase in net migration and 27 percent of total population growth in the St. Louis region since 2000 is attributable to an influx of international immigrants. If this trend continues, the region needs to adjust its transportation system to factor in those social, cultural and economic differences brought by those groups. Where will we live? The extensive highway system in the St. Louis region has provided residents the mobility necessary to live farther away from their destinations with little impact on travel time, resulting in highly dispersed urban development patterns. As a result, areas farthest from St. Louis urban core continue to experience the most rapid population and employment growth in the region. St. Louis County will continue to be the largest jurisdiction in the St. Louis region throughout the time frame of this plan even though its population is expected to decline over the 28 years. St. Charles County and St. Louis City will form a second tier cluster of most-populated jurisdictions. Population density, a measure of persons per square mile, has been going down in the St. Louis region as the population spreads out and moves farther from the urban core. Population density is as important as size when transportation investments are considered because densely populated communities can be served by transportation initiatives that would be unworkable in areas where people are spread out. The reverse is also true. Showing the density ranking of the eight jurisdictions of the St. Louis region paints a different picture of the region s population base. Table 2-1 Population 2000-2035 Jurisdiction 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 St. Louis 348,189 352,500 353,500 354,500 355,500 356,500 357,500 358,500 St. Louis 1,016,315 1,002,258 1,021,800 1,020,900 1,016,200 1,008,700 1,004,200 999,700 St. Charles 283,883 329,606 347,800 367,900 388,100 400,300 411,100 421,900 Jefferson 198,099 213,011 224,700 233,600 245,400 255,500 263,800 272,100 Franklin 93,807 98,987 106,900 116,800 125,500 135,000 144,400 153,800 Madison 258,941 263,975 271,500 278,600 285,900 293,100 300,300 307,500 St. Clair 256,082 259,388 265,800 270,600 274,300 279,600 284,100 288,600 Monroe 27,619 31,289 32,400 34,200 35,500 36,900 38,300 39,700 Total 2,482,935 2,551,014 2,624,400 2,677,100 2,726,400 2,765,600 2,803,700 2,841,800 Source: East-West Gateway Council of Governments
12 Transportation Challenges and Trends Legacy 2035 Table 2-2 Population by County, 2035 Ranked by Density Rank Jurisdiction Persons per Square Mile 1 St. Louis 5,740 2 St. Louis 1,968 3 St. Charles 753 4 St. Clair 435 5 Madison 424 6 Jefferson 414 7 Franklin 167 8 Monroe 102 Region 634 Source: East-West Gateway Council of Governments Additional hard-to-quantify factors that are important to consider follow. Young, health-conscious adults, older adults and adults with disabilities are three groups who have expressed a preference for communities in which economic, cultural and social opportunities are easy to access without the use of a personal automobile. Those desires will affect land use decisions and, in turn, transportation needs. In the second half of the last century, suburban and outlying areas of the region favored middle-income and upper-income developments. Commercial developments and jobs followed the housing market. The result is a large number of entry-level and mid-level service jobs are in the suburbs and the lowerskilled workforce is concentrated in the urban core. This spatial mismatch creates a problem for job seekers and potential employers. The region s approach to this spatial mismatch may take the form of expanded affordable housing in the suburbs, additional reverse commute programs, or job creation in the inner urban core or some combination of all three responses. Between 1990 and 2005, the number of households in the St. Louis region increased at a faster rate (17.4 percent) than did its population (13.7 percent), resulting in a decrease in average household size. Despite households getting smaller, on average, the region s families of 2007 prefer larger homes with more closets and bathrooms and larger lots than was the case 25 years ago. Some older houses are being torn down and replaced with much larger houses. This trend could lead to changes in community criteria regarding parking, sidewalks, bike paths, streets, signage and other components of the transportation system. What work will we do and where? The region s employment base is expected to expand from 1.32 million jobs in 2005 to 1.49 million jobs in 2035, an increase of 13 percent. East-West Gateway s calculations suggest that the counties with the highest rates of employment growth will mirror those with high population growth rates. Despite slower growth rates, St. Louis County and St. Louis City will remain the region s major employment centers. The goods-producing sector slowed in growth in the last 25 years and was surpassed by the knowledge-driven services sector. That is expected to continue, making highly skilled workers the most valued asset for economic growth. The following are some trends to watch carefully if the region is going to be economically competitive. The federal government, as required by law, will measure the geographic dimensions of commuting patterns in 2013, 2023 and 2033 based on the decennial census. The expansion of commuter patterns will raise questions about how large the Metropolitan Statistical Area has become and what propor-
Legacy 2035 Transportation Challenges and Trends 13 Click on the link below to display Figure 2-4 Figure 2-4 Map Population Growth Forecast 2000-2035
14 Transportation Challenges and Trends Legacy 2035 tion of the population will be working outside the eight-county East-West Gateway region. Figure 2-5 Employment 2000-2035 By 2035, the region will have fully incorporated the effects of the major transportation investments of the late 1990s such as the Cross County MetroLink extension, which linked downtown and Clayton with light rail, and the Page Avenue extension, which provided another bridge across the Missouri River between St. Charles and St. Louis counties. Daily traffic patterns are affected by the growth of the mobile service sector and a declining emphasis on factories as workplaces. With people working in various locations on various schedules, morning and afternoon rush hours may be less dominant. Advanced telecommunication capability could at various times of the day and for various reasons either increase or decrease traffic congestion. How will we spend our leisure time? Cellular phones, digital cameras, satellite television and the Internet have increased the speed with which we send and receive information. High-tech gadgets are used to fill most waking minutes with some fast-paced activity. A possible reaction to that approach could have young adults wanting to slow down that pace and focus on improving the quality of their life. If nothing else, the aging of the population could slow down the societal pace. Here are some leisure-time factors that could have implications for the transportation system of the future. During the past decade, the region has increasingly invested in walking trails and bike paths. Citizens currently enjoy more than 80 walking, hiking and biking trails and on-road bikeways throughout the region. If demand continues to increase for these leisure activities, that could put pressure on local governments to provide more pathways for walking and biking. Source: East-West Gateway Council of Governments If the long promised increased ease of obtaining movies, games, music and books via the Internet jeopardizes retail outlets that market those leisure time products, communities will have to recycle those commercial spaces and the transportation infrastructure that has been built at considerable public and private cost. The aging population may demand more fixed route group transportation, such as buses and light rail, to and from social and recreational opportunities. With increased needs, the paratransit system that now only serves seniors for medical and other essential trips might be reconfigured for these new circumstances. How will we travel? One of the more interesting, and outlandish, attempts to envision the impact of new technologies on travel in the future was the Jetsons cartoon that was launched in 1962 and again in 1979. Hanna-Barbera took viewers out to the year 2062 with a family who traveled almost anywhere they wanted to go in air cars with fold-up wings. It still seems hard to believe that the year 2062 would support such travel, but 2035 is more than halfway there. Is this the path we could be on?
Legacy 2035 Transportation Challenges and Trends 15 Click on the link below to display Figure 2-6 Figure 2-6 Map Employment Growth Forecast 2000-2035
16 Transportation Challenges and Trends Legacy 2035 As the sophistication of communication technologies continues to increase, so too will the artificial intelligence embedded in vehicles, roadways and other components of the transportation system. Consider these possibilities: Over the last 25 years, the proportion of trips to work in the St. Louis region made in cars with only one occupant has steadily increased. Correspondingly, the number of trips on mass transit has declined. If personal autos become ever more equipped with gadgets and gizmos, will this trend continue? The total distance driven by cars and trucks is known as Vehicle Miles Traveled, or VMT. A study by the Center for Urban Transportation Research suggests that the rate of growth in VMT has declined since 2002. The 2005 increase in VMT was the lowest since 1980, and actually represented a decrease in per capita VMT. It is too soon to know whether the leveling off of VMT growth is a long-term trend. Transportation planners will continue to closely monitor changes in vehicle usage patterns. Security concerns have changed air travel. If homeland security concerns affect national and regional policies about surface transportation, there could be an effect on the transport of goods and services by truck. Personal travel may also be affected as well as public transit. Since at least 1984, transportation has been the number two expense for households, second only to housing. Transportation expenditures are an increasingly large proportion of household budgets and, with the rising price of fuel, the costs are expected to continue to increase. In addition, 91,500 households in the St. Louis region did not own a vehicle in 2000. For these residents, the transit system is a vital link to regional job opportunities, shopping, health care, and other services. Alternative modes of transportation can often provide lower-cost means of travel. How these trends will affect the number of vehicles on the road is unclear. MetroLink has seen a steady increase in ridership since 2000. By contrast, the number of bus passengers in 2006 was roughly the same as in 2002. Total transit ridership dipped slightly between 2001 and 2003, both locally and nationally. Since 2003, however, the total number of transit passengers has increased slowly but steadily each year. The reasons for the recent increase in transit usage are still being debated, but possible answers include a growing consumer taste for alternative transit, coupled with increases in automobile operating costs. Figure 2-7 Vehicle Miles of Travel 1970-2005 Between 1980 and 2005, income and wealth became increasingly tied to post-secondary education, widening the gap between low-income and high-income households. In 2005, about 28 percent of adults in the St. Louis region held postsecondary degrees. Higher income individuals could use public transit less and less while lower income individuals may be using it more and more. The region could choose to establish an intelligent transportation system that serves all citizens of the region instead of leaving the private market place as the mechanism to distribute opportunity. Source: East-West Gateway Council of Governments
Legacy 2035 Transportation Challenges and Trends 17 With increasing demand for more sophisticated and accessible transportation alternatives, state and local governments will be challenged to fund these improvements. Current projections suggest that the region will need to seek new revenue sources in order to establish adequate streams of transportation funding. Compared to peer regions, St. Louis nears the bottom in local government revenue, local government spending and local government debt. Will current funding structures be sufficient to meet future transportation needs? Figure 2-8 Bus and Light Rail Ridership How will we support it all? Remember the energy crisis of the 1970s and the long lines of cars at filling stations when the talk of energy conservation was a national pastime? It is all but a fading memory. In fact, we are finding ways to extract more fossil fuel from existing fields. But amid this national complacency, leading geologists and oil consultants are telling us a different story and that is global production of cheap crude oil could peak between 2010 and 2020. This event will be an historic crossroads for human civilization. Adding to this turning point is an ever-rising demand for oil, in the industrialized world as well as developing countries. The prospect of a truly global energy crisis is real, but the solution grows right here in our own backyard. Alternative transportation fuels hold significant promise in leading us to an energy efficient future. By supporting the growth and development of homegrown American fuels like ethanol, biodiesel, propane, compressed natural gas, and hybrid technologies, we can improve air quality, create domestic jobs in Missouri, Illinois and the nation, and reduce our dependence on imported fossil fuels, thus insuring our nation s energy security. Ethanol is produced from corn by fermenting crop starches and sugars. Biodiesel is an organic fuel made primarily from crops like soy, peanut, and sunflower canola. Infrastructure that accommodates these home grown fuels will also help build the Source: Madison County Transit and Metro Figure 2-9 Trends in Transit Ridership Source: Madison County Transit, Metro and American Public Transit Association
18 Transportation Challenges and Trends Legacy 2035 bridge to an energy future based on hydrogen. Hydrogen is the most abundant element on earth and can be derived from a variety of feedstocks including water and biomass. This diversity of supply is key to helping us eliminate our dependence on a dwindling supply of fossil fuels. Elaborating on a vision for a hydrogen future, President George W. Bush has noted, By being bold and innovative...we can change our dependence on foreign sources of energy...let us promote hydrogen fuel cells as a way to advance into the 21st Century. 2035: It s Not a Done Deal The pages that follow in Legacy 2035 identify the goals, priorities, strategies and major transportation projects for the St. Louis region for the next 28 years. This chapter was intended to raise general awareness about a variety of complex and largely unpredictable trends and challenges that will evolve during that time period. These forces will require us to continuously refine and adjust our long-term investment plan. Toward that end, we encourage communities to keep these potential trends and challenges in mind as projects are developed. Further, we urge that each and every project idea and design be held up against each community s understanding and desires for future economic, cultural and environmental growth in complement to regional considerations. 2035 can be what we make it.
Legacy 2035 Focus Areas for Problem Solving 19 SECTION III FOCUS AREAS FOR PROBLEM SOLVING Legacy 2035 carries forward a planning and decision-making structure centered on the needs of the customer and the region s social, economic, and environmental aspirations. Recognizing the difficulty of associating specific decisions with specific outcomes, a series of focus areas have been utilized over time to organize transportation system evaluation and decision-making. The implicit assumption in using the focus areas is that progress in these areas will contribute to attaining regional goals. The focus areas have guided planning and programming for nearly 15 years. They serve as the evaluative framework for identifying and defining problems and regional needs, developing and evaluating options, and selecting preferred alternatives and strategies in long- and short-range planning studies. They are used to establish priorities in selecting projects for the Transportation Improvement Program and the metropolitan transportation plan. They provide a reference point to ensure consistency in the Council s various planning programs and tracking progress in meeting regional goals. The six focus areas are: Access to opportunity. Addressing the complex mobility needs of persons living in low-income communities, the elderly, and persons with disabilities. Sustainable development. Coordinating land use, transportation, economic development, environmental quality, energy conservation, and community aesthetics. Efficient movement of goods. Improving the movement of freight within and through the region by rail, water, air, and surface transportation modes. A discussion of the primary issues and needs associated with each focus area continues through this chapter. Long-range strategies for addressing those needs are identified for each focus area. Preservation of existing infrastructure. Maintaining the current road, bridge, transit and intermodal assets in good condition. Safety and security in travel. Decreasing the risk of personal injury and property damage on, in, and around transportation facilities. Congestion Management. Ensuring that congestion on the region s roadways does not reach levels that compromise productivity and quality of life.
20 Focus Areas for Problem Solving Legacy 2035 PRESERVATION OF EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE Overview The Council was progressive nearly 15 years ago when it established preservation as the region s top priority for transportation investment. The region s stakeholders and political leaders recognized how integral a high quality transportation system is to maintaining the social and economic vitality of our region. Since that time, the region has made great strides in not only maintaining, but improving the condition of the existing system. It has taken steady investment and an unwavering commitment to make such improvements. With increasingly scarce funding, and rising costs for steel and energy, it is more important than ever to continue this focus on improving the system through preventative maintenance, rehabilitation, and reconstruction of the existing system to get the most out of our past and current infrastructure investments. This is not only a major challenge for St. Louis, but also one the entire country must address. Many metropolitan areas have neglected their maintenance responsibilities, in lieu of policies heavily favoring expansion. This has created an enormous national burden, as many metros try to catch up on preservation needs. In fact, the most recent report on the status of the nation s transportation system estimates that it will cost $78.8 billion annually to maintain America s current highway and bridge system in its current condition between 2005 and 2024, and an additional $51.9 billion to actually improve it. Transit systems are estimated to require an annual investment $15.8 billion to maintain them and an additional $6 billion to see improvement. 2 The cost of constructing highways and streets, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, has increased at an annual rate of 5.1% between 1996 and 2006. Even more striking is that in the last two years of that decade, these construction costs increased by 24.7%. 3 With increasing demand for 2 Based on 2004 data from Figure 7.1, 2006 Status of Nations Highways, Bridges, and Transit: Conditions and Performance, US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration. Figure 3-1 Cost of Deferred Maintenance Source: M.Y. Shahin and J.A. Walther. Pavement Maintenance Management for Roads and Streets Using the PAVER System construction materials around the globe, and energy costs continuing to rise, the high rate of construction cost increases will persist in coming years. Neglecting the region s preservation needs is not a feasible policy choice. Putting off maintenance due to fiscal pressure proves to be even more costly in the future. As shown by Figure 3-1, the worse the condition of a roadway surface, the greater the cost to repair it. The cost of neglecting maintenance is not limited to simply repairing infrastructure either. Poorly maintained transportation systems also cost the local economy by deterring private investment, creating unsafe conditions for travelers, unnecessary delays due to vehicle and bus breakdowns, and potential limitations for emergency vehicle services. The condition and aesthetic quality of the region s infrastructure is a reflection of regional values and community pride. Continuing to keep preservation of our transportation system as the top priority can mitigate these undesirable consequences of poor maintenance. 3 Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2007. Producer Price Index Industry Data, Highway and Street Construction. BLS Series ID: PCUBHWY BHWY.
Legacy 2035 Focus Areas for Problem Solving 21 Click on the link below to display Figure 3-2 Figure 3-2 Map Pavement Conditions
22 Focus Areas for Problem Solving Legacy 2035 Analysis If left untreated, transportation infrastructure will deteriorate. It has a limited lifetime that varies by materials, craftsmanship, weather conditions, traffic volumes and various other factors. Routine maintenance will prevent it from deteriorating to the point of requiring major rehabilitation. The investments identified in Legacy 2035 are expected to continue improving the condition of the region s pavement, bridge and transit assets over the term of the plan. The current condition of the transportation system provided a basis for developing investment targets to accomplish that goal. The condition of these regional assets is summarized below. Figure 3-3 Pavement Conditions: State Maintained Roadways Pavement Conditions Figure 3-2 shows the condition of state maintained roads within the region. Conditions are categorized as good (no visible signs of deterioration), fair (moderate deterioration) and poor (severe deterioration). Pavement and conditions are evaluated once a year in Missouri and every two years in Illinois. Because of past investment practices, pavements on the region s state maintained highways are in reasonably sound condition, with approximately 58 percent of the pavement rated as good, 21 percent fair, and 21 percent in poor condition. Conditions vary significantly by state and roadway type, however, due to historical variations in investment policies. In the Illinois portion of the region, where investment has historically been focused on maintenance, 71 percent of its roads are in good condition and only 7 percent are in poor condition. In Missouri, where the system is much more extensive and development pressure has required more expansion until recent years, 56 percent of its roads are in good condition and 23 percent of its roads are in poor condition. Source: MoDOT 2006, IDOT 2005 The pavement conditions on area highways today are a great improvement over the condition of the state maintained system a decade ago. The percentage of pavement in poor condition in the Missouri portion of the region has dropped in half from 51 percent in 1995 to 23 percent in 2006. Illinois maintained the good condition of their roads during the same time period, fluctuating minimally, with never more than 8 percent of the system falling into poor condition. Previous policies for both states focused on improving the condition of Interstates first, since that portion of the system supports a majority of regional travel, to get the most benefit per dollar invested for travelers. Once the conditions of the Interstate system improved and stabilized, policies shifted to place greater emphasis on improving the arterial system, while continuing to maintain the conditions of Interstate routes. This investment approach has proven to be positive for the region. As the data show, conditions have improved considerably in both states over the last decade, particularly in Missouri portion