Mosaic: Oregon s Value and Cost Informed Transportation Planning Tool

Transcription

1 Mosaic: Oregon s Value and Cost Informed Transportation Planning Tool April 10, 2012

2 Objective of this Presentation Demonstrate how to use Mosaic for state, regional, and corridor-level planning efforts 1. What is Mosaic? 2. How does Mosaic fit with how we plan? 3. How do we use Mosaic? 4. Now what? How does Mosaic help us make value- and costinformed decisions?

3 What is Mosaic? April 10, 2012

4 Introduction to Mosaic Mosaic is a new approach to transportation planning developed by the Oregon Department of Transportation. Mosaic has been developed in collaboration with local, regional and statewide stakeholders.

5 Introduction to Mosaic Mosaic offers planners and decisions makers an effective and efficient way to evaluate the social, environmental and financial costs and benefits of transportation options. The approach is sizeable and scalable based on a community s transportation needs.

6 Introduction to Mosaic Mosaic, Oregon s Value- and Cost-Informed Planning Tool, is a web-based resource. The tool guides a community through a process that evaluates its needs, its resources, its social, environmental and economic constraints, and its transportation alternatives.

7 Introduction to Mosaic Mosaic s Value and Cost Informed Planning Tool offers the unique advantage of providing a clear, traceable and transparent record of the evaluation process, analysis and decision making for transportation actions and investments.

8 How does Mosaic fit with how we plan? April 10, 2012

9 Mosaic fully supports Oregon s Existing Planning Process Step 1: Identify Needs and Opportunities Step 2: Develop and Evaluate Solutions Step 3: Make Recommendations Step 4: Create and Adopt the Plan Mosaic helps agencies evaluate solutions and make recommendations

10 Mosaic Supports More Informed Decisions Mosaic ensures that social, environmental and economic costs of transportation options are weighed on a common scale. Mosaic makes the decision process clearer and easier for everyone to understand. Mosaic will create a clear, transparent and defensible record of the process.

11 How do we use Mosaic? How do we use Mosaic? April 10, 2012

12 Before Engaging Mosaic Understand existing conditions Identify the study area, its needs and opportunities Ensure the travel demand forecasting tool and GIS databases are ready for use Develop an inclusive stakeholder process

13 Mosaic Requirements To realize the full potential of Mosaic, the following are required: A travel forecasting model Geographic information system (GIS ) data such as Social and demographic data Land use Transportation networks Environmental and cultural features

14 Mosaic Requirements Without access to a travel model The list of MODA indicators changes. Fewer impacts are measured in dollars. Data such as the following still are required: Demographic and land use data Transportation networks, needs and opportunities Environmental and cultural features

15 Step 1: Identify Bundles of Actions A suite of individual investments and/or programs Sometimes with a distinguishing, common theme, e.g., transit-oriented, ITS-oriented, highway capacity-oriented Including both and supply- and demand-side options, e.g., a new bicycle path and a bicycle education program

16 Step 2: Learn the Framework MOBILITY GENERAL INDICATORS Travel Time Quality of Service Out of Pocket Costs Travel Characteristics SPECIFIC INDICATORS Travel Time Hours of Congestion Reliability Recurring congestion Reliability Non-recurring congestion User Costs Mode Split VMT / Capita

17 Step 2: Learn the Framework ACCESSIBILITY GENERAL INDICATORS Proximity GHG Modal Availability SPECIFIC INDICATORS Transportation Cost Index Population within X minutes between work and home Location of industrial jobs in relation to the regional freight network Population and employment within ¼ mile of a transit stop served by at least 30 vehicles per day Amount of multi-use paths and bike boulevards Sidewalk coverage

18 Step 2: Learn the Framework ECONOMIC VITALITY GENERAL INDICATORS Economic Impacts of Spending for Construction Economic Impacts of more Efficient Transportation Services Structural Economic Effects SPECIFIC INDICATORS Number of jobs associated with action Changes in transportation costs by industry Changes in employment by industry Changes in productivity from increased connectivity Changes in the total value of exports and imports

19 Step 2: Learn the Framework ENVIRONMENTAL STEWARDSHIP GENERAL INDICATORS Air GHG Resources at Risk SPECIFIC INDICATORS Criterion Air Contaminants Mobile Source Air Toxics Non-MSAT Air Toxics Life-cycle CO2e Natural, built, and cultural resources at risk

20 Step 2: Learn the Framework FUNDING THE TRANSPORTATION SYSTEM/FINANCE GENERAL INDICATORS Capital Costs Lifecycle Costs Operating Revenues Leveraging Funds from Private Sector and Other Agencies Net Impact on State and Local Fiscal Balance and Debt SPECIFIC INDICATORS Capital Costs Other Lifecycle Costs Total Revenues Share of lifecycle funds that are new or recycled Net impact of program on State and Local fiscal balance

21 Step 2: Learn the Framework SAFETY AND SECURITY GENERAL INDICATORS System Safety System Security SPECIFIC INDICATORS Fatal, Injury A, and Injury B Crashes Emergency Management Systems Resiliency of the Network

22 Step 2: Learn the Framework LAND USE AND GROWTH MANAGEMENT GENERAL INDICATORS Population and employment density Land Value SPECIFIC INDICATORS Number of jobs and households per developable acre Relative change of land value compared to base case or no action

23 Step 2: Learn the Framework QUALITY OF LIFE AND LIVABILITY GENERAL INDICATORS Physical Activity Journey ambiance Noise Physical Activity SPECIFIC INDICATORS Lives saved due to active transportation Reduced incidence of disease due to active transportation Quality of the travel environment Noise Impacts Lives saved due to active transportation

24 Step 2: Learn the Framework EQUITY GENERAL INDICATORS Accessibility Environmental Stewardship Quality of Life Safety SPECIFIC INDICATORS Transportation Cost Index, in different geographic areas (e.g., urban vs. rural) and/or for different population groups Distribution of PM and PM Diesel emissions across population groups, based on geographic distribution of emissions Reduced incidence of disease due to active transportation Distribution of accident rates (fatalities and injuries) across population groups

25 Step 2: Learn the Framework Decision Value measured in dollars Value informed by stakeholders

26 Step 2: Learn the Framework Gather the data that will be used to measure the value of each individual indicator. (Mosaic provides guidance.) Assign weights (measures of relative value) to non monetized indicators

27 Step 3: Populate the Tool Mosaic will be a downloadable spreadsheetbased tool Data are input into the tool from a variety of sources (GIS, travel demand model output, other) through the evaluation phase of a project Mosaic comes together over time though it doesn t need to extend the planning process, it is not a survey to be filled out in one afternoon

28 Step 3: Populate the Tool Make into legible editable table Projects Capital Cost (1,000$) 1,680,000 12,000,000 35,000,000 Mid-Point Construction (yr) Year Open (yr) Useful Life (yr) Salvage Value (1,000$) 1,000,000 4,000,000 12,000,000 Ext. Construction Costs (1,000$) 0 0 0

29 Step 3: Populate the Tool Make into legible editable table Programs Annual Operating Cost 380, ,000 1,115,000 Year Open (yr)

30 The Weighting Process: Categories Safety & Security Mobility Land Use Environmental Stewardship Equity Quality of Life Accessibility Funding/Finance Economic Vitality

31 The Weighting Process: Categories Weighting is done by stakeholders Stakeholders reach agreement on how to spend 100 points among the 9 categories

32 The Weighting Process: Indicators Stakeholders have 100 points to spend among indicators in each category QUALITY OF LIFE AND LIVABILITY FINAL WEIGHT GENERAL INDICATORS Journey Ambiance Noise Physical Activity

33 The Weighting Process: Indicators

34 Step 4: Interpret the Results Mosaic will provide Two types of information for each bundle of action Benefits and costs measured in dollars All other impacts measured as appropriate A range of estimates when appropriate Documentation

35 Step 4: Learn the Framework Decision Value measured in dollars Value informed by stakeholders

36 Step 4: Interpret the Results Using BCA MOST LIKELY BCA OUTCOMES (In Millions of 2012 Dollars, unless specified otherwise) Specific Indicator Highway Emphasis Bundle of actions Rail/Freight Emphasis Transit & Pricing Total Monetized Benefits $23.6 $28.5 $58.9 Travel Time Savings MO.1 $17.0 $15.0 $8.0 Monetary Value of Reliability Improvements MO.2 $5.0 $4.0 $7.0 Life-cycle CO2e Emission Cost Savings ES.3 -$1.4 -$0.8 $2.3 Total Bundle Costs $26.2 $25.9 $25.6 Total Capital Costs FT.1 $10.5 $15.5 $9.0 Other Life-Cycle Costs FT.2 $15.7 $10.4 $16.6 Net Present Value -$2.6 $2.6 $33.3 Benefit/Cost Ratio Internal Rate of Return, % 3.8% 7.2% 15.3%

37 Step 4: Interpret the Results Bundles of Actions Net Present Value ($ billions) Lower 10% Median Upper 10% 7A-Phased Reduced Highway Expansion + Phased Blended & Commuter Rail + Express Lanes -$0.8 B $4.8 B $12.2 B 7A Reduced Highway Expansion + Blended Light & Commuter Rail + Express Lanes -$2.3 B $3.4 B $10.5 B 7C-Phased Reduced Highway Expansion + Phased Commuter Rail + Express Lanes -$1.2 B $3.4 B $8.8 B 3C Reduced Highway Expansion + Light Rail + Express Lanes1 -$2.5 B $3.2 B $10.3 B

38 Step 4: Interpret the Results Using BCA

39 Step 4: Interpret the Results Using MODA

40 Step 4: Interpret the Results Using MODA

41 Step 4: Interpret the Results Decision-makers see the results of each bundle of action and how each bundle scores for each category The results allow decision-makers to discuss the tradeoffs between bundles of actions more explicitly Mosaic informs decision makers; Mosaic results do not dictate decisions.

42 How does Mosaic help us make value and cost informed decisions? April 10, 2012

43 How does Mosaic help us? Mosaic offers an effective and efficient way to evaluate the social, environmental and financial costs and benefits of transportation options.

44 How does Mosaic help us? Mosaic lets us compare impacts we can measure in dollars to impacts that we measure in other ways. Mosaic provides a clear, traceable and transparent record of the evaluation process, analysis and decision making.

45 How does Mosaic help us? Decision-makers see the results of each bundle of action and how each bundle scores for each category. The results allow decision-makers to discuss the tradeoffs between bundles of actions more explicitly. Mosaic informs decision makers; Mosaic results do not dictate decisions.

46 Questions and Discussion April 10, 2012