Evolution of migration in Quebec Alain Bélanger and Éric Caron Malenfant Demography Division Statistics Canada September 26 1
Presentation outline Components of demographic growth Evolution of interprovincial migration Evolution of international migration Replacement migration (Canada) Characteristics of interprovincial migrants 2
Demographic growth in Canada: increasingly the result of migration 6 5 Natural growth Migration growth 4 (in thousands) 3 2 1-1 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 3
Natural growth falling even more rapidly in Quebec 1 8 Natural growth Migration growth 6 in thousands) 4 2-2 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226 231-4 4
Summary of assumptions Number of assumptions Low assumption Average assumption High assumption Birth rate 3 1.3 children per woman 1.5 children per woman 1.7 children per woman Male mortality 3 81.1 years 81.9 years 82.6 years Female mortality 3 85.3 years 86. years 86.6 years Immigration (rate) 3 5.5 per thousand 7. per thousand 8.5 per thousand Emigration (rate) 1 1.5 per thousand NPR/RE/PTA 1 NPR.: balance equals RE: 38% of annual emigrants PTA: balance equals 22, people Interprovincial migration 4 Center-West : based on 1996-2 West : based on 1988-1996 Recent trends : based on 2-23 Average : average of West and Recent trends 5
Population of Quebec from 25 to 231, ISQ (reference scenario) and Statistics Canada 9, 8,5 Millions 8, 7,5 7, 6,5 ISQ Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario 6 25 21 215 22 225 23 6
Propensity to leave Quebec for another province is declining Per 1, Interprovincial departure rate, Quebec, 1981-231 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1981 1991 21 211 221 231 Low growth Average - recent trends Average average Average - West Average - Center-West Strong growth 7
Rate of in-migrants to Quebec is also improving Per 1, 5. 4.5 4. 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 1.5 1..5. Rate of interprovincial in-migrants, Quebec, 1981-231 1981 1991 21 211 221 231 8
As a result, the internal migration balance reaches a new high in thousands 1981 1991 21 211 221 231-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3 Interprovincial migration balance, Quebec, 1981-231 9
Number of immigrants also rising 6, International immigrants, Quebec, 1981-231 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1981 1991 21 211 221 231 1
Little change in international emigration 12 International emigration, Quebec, 1981-231 1 8 in thousands 6 4 2 1981 1991 21 211 221 231 11
As a result, the international balance is rising 6 International migration balance, Quebec, 1981-231 5 in thousands 4 3 2 1 1981 1991 21 211 221 231 12
Number of immigrants in Quebec by category, 1981-25 3, 25, Family Economic Refugees 2, 15, 1, 5, 198 1982 1984 1986 1988 199 1992 1994 1996 1998 2 22 24 13
Quebec receives fewer immigrants than represented by its demographic weight 25 Percentage of immigrants to Canada choosing Quebec, 1981-25 2 15 1 5 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 14
Under all scenarios, the overall participation rate of the Canadian population aged 15 years and older falls substantially 7% 68% Observed Projected 66% 64% 62% 6% 58% 56% 54% Weak growth Recent situation Increasing activity Strong growth 52% 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 15
Replacement migration (Canada) Scenario Net immigration Weak growth 2, Average growth 27, Strong growth 34, No demographic decline 76, No decline in population 15-64 165, Constant ratio (15-64/65+) 3,455, 16
Interprovincial departure rate by age, Quebec 25 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 5 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 7 75 8 85 9 17
Migration deficit is larger among young adults Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by age group, 1991-1996 and 1996-21 -2-4 -6-8 -1-12 -14-16 -18-2 1991-1996 1996-21 18 Net migration rate (per 1,) 5-9 1-14 15-19 2-24 25-29 3-34 35-39 4-44 45-49 5-54 55-59 6-64 65-69 7-74 75-79 8-84 85-89 9+
Knowledge of French is an important factor Net immigration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by knowledge of official languages 1 Net migration rate (per 1,) -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 English French English and French 1991-1996 1996-21 Neither 19
Another important factor: place of birth Net migration rate (per 1,) 5-5 -15-25 -35-45 -55 Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by place of birth 1991-1996 1996-21 Quebec Rest of Canada Outside Canada 2
Recent immigrants are very likely to leave Quebec Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by period of immigration Net migration rate (per 1,) -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 1991-1996 1996-21 -7 Nonimmigrants Total immigrants Immigrated 6 to 1 years ago Immigrated 11 to 15 years ago Immigrated more than 15 years ago 21
Retention of people belonging to certain visible minority groups is difficult Whites 1991-1996 Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by visible minority group Net migration rate (per 1,) Whites 1996-21 -2-4 -6-8 -1-12 1991-1996 1996-21 -14 Latino-American Southeast Asian Arabic Black Chinese Phillipino Japanese Korean South Asian 22
The higher the level of education, the more negative the migration balance Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by highest level of education achieved Net migration rate (per 1,) -5-1 -15-2 1991-1996 1996-21 -25 High school or less Post-secondary, below BA University graduate 23
Migration deficit is greater for university graduates, regardless of mother tongue Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by mother tongue, 1996-21 Net migration rate (per 1,) -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 -7-8 Total Graduates French only Multiple Other(s) only English only 24
or place of birth Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by place or birth and university graduation, 1996-21 5 Net migration rate (per 1,) -5-15 -25-35 -45-55 Total Graduates Quebec Rest of Canada Outside Canada 25
Results of a logistical regression (rating reports) Age Knowledge of official languages French 1. English 51.7 French and English 12.8 None 21. Place of birth Quebec 1. Rest of Canada 7. Outside Canada 2.4 Education High school or less.7 Non-graduates 1. Graduates 1.7 26
Summary (internal migration) Factors with a potentially positive impact on the interprovincial migration balance Ageing of the population Decrease in the population born in the rest of Canada Decrease in Anglophone population Factors with a potentially negative impact on interprovincial migration balance Increase in immigrated population Increase in education Increase in bilingualism 27
Summary (international migration)) Ageing of the population and retirement of boomers Workforce pressures Quebec s demographic weight 28
Questions? Consult the report or the CD-ROM on demographic projections Or contact us: Demography Division Statistics Canada (613) 951-2319 demography@statcan.ca 29
Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by mother tongue for 1991-1996 and 1996-21 1 Net migration rate (per 1,) -1-2 -3-4 -5-6 English (single response) French (single response) Other (single response) 1991-1996 1996-21 Multiple responses 3