The Economy and Demography

Transcription

1 The Economy and Demography Challenges and Opportunities for the onens Coalition Thomas Storring, NS Department of Finance and Treasury Board,

2 What can I tell you? Economics and Statistics Division informs the government on: How the economic conditions and outlook for the province affect the fiscal situation How taxation and fiscal policies affect the economy Economies of scope: Spend our time in detailed examination of economic conditions in the province Understand what influences our economy; in the short run vs. in the long run Plan for today Show you the important facts and how to interpret them How the facts fit together to explain long run growth 2

3 2.36% 1.64% 3.62% 4.5% Slower Economic Growth in NS? 8% 7% Growth Compound average growth rate 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Real Nominal Canada NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC 3

4 1.31% 2.71% 1.88% 1.47% 1.58% 1.32% 1.8% 1.45% 1.79% 1.45% 1.6% Or Slower Demographic Growth? 4.% % 3.% 2.5% 2.% 1.5% 1.%.5%.% -.5% -1.% Population Real GDP per capita NL: Net 1.4% -.42%.49%.17%.1%.66% 1.21%.56% Compound Average Growth Rate.35% 1.94% 1.47% 4

5 Where does GDP come from? What is it? Pace of change What causes it to change? Influence on growth Factors of Production Utilization Rate Productivity Labour, Capital, Natural Resources Accumulate slowly over time; can diminish Demographics Capital investment Resource exploration & exploitation Significant influence on long run growth Share of factors currently employed Fluctuates a lot in the short run, but stable around long run average Business cycle Demand in key markets Shifts in tastes/preferences Fiscal/monetary policy Little influence on long run growth Output/income generated per employed factor of production Grows slowly over time Technology, capital per worker, skills, trade, infrastructure, entrepreneurship Significant influence on long run growth 5

6 Why do we focus on demography? Labour is the most significant factor of production Share of nominal income generated by production (GDP) 1% Taxes Capital Consumption of Fixed Capital Capital Operating Surplus 5% Labour % Canada NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC 6

7 Why do we focus on demography? 4% 3% NS demographic indicators have been weak , CAGR future looks worse millions 2%.7 1%.6.5 %.4-1%.3.2-2%.1-3% All Actual -17 Actual Actual 65+ Actual Total Canada NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC Forecast -17 Forecast Forecast 65+ Forecast Total 7

8 199/ / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / / / / / / / / / / / /2 2/21 21/22 22/23 23/24 24/25 25/26 26/27 27/28 28/29 29/21 21/ / /213 Why do we focus on demography? 6 International growth replaces natural Natural Change Net International Change Internal Migration: a Youth Issue Net Interprovincial Change: All Others Net Interprovincial Change: 2-34 Net interprovincial migration 8

9 Why do we focus on demography?.8% Youth Internal Migration Influence on Population Ages 2-34 as a share of overall population change.6%.4%.2%.% -.2% -.4% -.6% -.8% -1.% -1.2% NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC 199/ /1996 2/21 25/26 21/ /213 9

10 What can we do about demography? 7, 7, Added Fertility 7, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, 5, 4, 3, Added Migration to 17 years Added Migration 18 to 64 years Added Migration 65 years and over 4, 3, Added Fertility to 17 years Added Fertility 18 to 64 years Added Fertility 65 years and over 4, 3, Added Immigration to 17 years Added Immigration 18 to 64 years Added Immigration 65 years and over 2, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, Added Internal Migration Replicating baby boom is difficult Added Immigration Neither of these has happened recently on a sustained basis. 1

11 Is that it? Demography is our destiny? What is it? Pace of change What causes it to change? Influence on growth What can be done about it? Factors of Production Utilization Rate Productivity Labour, Capital, Natural Resources Share of factors currently employed Output/income generated per employed factor of production Accumulate slowly over time; can diminish Demographics Capital investment Resource exploration & exploitation Significant influence on long run growth Greater population of working age More capital investment (physical & IPP) Find & exploit more resources Fluctuates a lot in the short run, but stable around long run average Business cycle Demand in key markets Shifts in tastes/preferences Fiscal/monetary policy Little influence on long run growth [Not a determinant of long run growth] Grows slowly over time Technology, capital per worker, skills, trade, infrastructure, entrepreneurship Significant influence on long run growth Find/improve technology embodied in capital Increase capital/worker Increase resources/worker Increase skills per worker More effective trade Better infrastructure Greater entrepreneurial skill/attitude 11

12 Capital Stock and Natural Resources $22 per worker, Industrial Sector 16.4% of NS workers 12 Non-Industrial Business Sector 53.7% of NS workers 6 Much higher concentration in energy-producing provinces 1 Higher concentration in Western energy-producers 5 8 NS: 85% of national average, but rising NS: 69% of national average, and falling

13 What does this tell us? Increasing the volume of capital employed per worker can substitute for declining labour inputs to production Added benefit of newer vintage technologies NS has lagged national averages in both industrial and non-industrial businesses Comparison against winners of the resource lottery are inappropriate (Until we find our own winning ticket) Business capital investment can grow quickly, but it depends on how businesses make their choices Factors that matter: natural resource endowments, access to clients markets, cost of inputs (labour, materials), foreign exchange rates, financing & interest rates, taxes Factors that matter: natural resource endowments, access to clients markets, cost of inputs (labour, materials), foreign exchange rates, financing & interest rates, taxes compared against everywhere else 13

14 Trade and Natural Resources (More to come ) NS trade situation: exports 63 per cent of Canadian average NS exports less internationally than other Provinces, even accounting for winners of the energy lottery NS imports are similar to other Provinces (94 per cent of Canadian average) Interprovincial trade is bigger than international trade for NS Why do economies trade? Exporting surplus output of our specialties allows us to import What do we import? Things that are cheaper, better or more varied than we could make for ourselves Being a big importer does not preclude positive trade balance (add value to imports or import productive capital equipment) How does trade contribute to long run growth? Specializing and concentrating production in areas of competitive advantage improves productivity Import the things we don t produce as well as our specialties, so we can focus our resources where we are most productive Like capital investment trade depends on how businesses make their choices Factors that matter: natural resource endowments, access to clients markets, cost of inputs (labour, materials), foreign exchange rates, financing & interest rates, taxes Factors that matter: natural resource endowments, access to clients markets, cost of inputs (labour, materials), foreign exchange rates, financing & interest rates, taxes compared against everywhere else 14

15 Skills and Education 213 share of population aged 15+ 4% 35% 3% What does this tell us? NS has more high school dropouts, comparable portions with post-secondary education (more weight to certificates & diplomas). 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % No degree, certificate or diploma High school graduate High school graduate, some post-secondary Postsecondary certificate or diploma University degree Canada NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC 15

16 Canada NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC Canada NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC Canada NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC Research and Development $ per capita Business Sector 7 Higher Education 7 Gov t/non-profit

17 Innovation Spending Share of enterprises, 212 6% Process Innovation 6% Product Innovation 5% 5% 4% 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% % $ $-$5k $5-$15k $15-$5k $5k+ % $ $-$5k $5-$2k $2-$1k $1k+ Canada Atlantic Quebec Canada Atlantic Quebec Ontario Alberta MB+SK+BC+Terr Ontario Alberta MB+SK+BC+Terr 17

18 What does this tell us? NS has the worst business R&D in the country But among the best higher education R&D It is not necessary to develop the technology to improve productivity Imported technology also enhances productivity (albeit for lower risk, lower return) Expenditures on process and product innovations are lower among Atlantic companies So neither in-house nor imported innovations are apparent Particularly for product innovations; not finding the next new thing 18

19 Productivity Growth and Gaps 15% Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing Productivity growth, CAGR 3.% Business Sector-Services 1% 2.% 5% 1.% %.% -5% Canada NL PE NS NB PQ ON MB SK AB BC -1.% % 4.% 17.4% Industrial Production 6 5 Productivity $27 chained per hour % % -2.% -4.% -6.% Agriculture, forestry, fishing Industrial production Business sector, services 19

20 What does this tell us? What is productivity? It is the effectiveness with which the production sector combines labour, capital and natural resources to generate valuable output, measured as real GDP per hour worked It represents: capital/technology per worker, skills, entrepreneurship, innovation (product & process), trade, resources NS productivity gap has been hard to close Not closing organically even with limited labour supply growth Sectoral composition of productivity is hard to shift Weak investment, research/innovation, trade underpin weak productivity Potential role of entrepreneurship, but difficult to measure What can we do about it? There are no direct channels to improve productivity, it s indirect More skills in the labour force, more advanced technology in production, more valuable outputs, find/import cheaper inputs 2

21 What does ALL OF THIS tell us? Our demographic challenge is like a glacier immutable, but slow. Influence on population is limited; overwhelmed by baby boom retirement Attracting and retaining youth will help; but it depends on all the other long run determinants of economic growth Place priorities on capital investment, innovation, skills, trade, entrepreneurship Get those right and the rest will follow We don t have same natural resource endowments as other provinces (Yet) Some economic gaps will not be closed; that s an issue for the Federation Most of these decisions are made by individual businesses (and households) in response to market conditions, prices, business cases Government has some, but not overwhelming influence on these variables Business cases must ultimately determine where production takes place; a bad business case propped up by crutches is still a bad business case. unless the business case is impeded by crutches that exist elsewhere. 21

22 The Bottom Line Think about the time in the future when you aren t going to have those inexpensive, well-educated baby boomers on which to rely for our production and income Businesses: How can you make the business case for investment, training, trade and innovation to cope with this? Communities: How can you turn our attitude towards entrepreneurship and competition while adjusting to the changes that are coming? Governments: How can you contribute to the real foundations of business cases (without building crutches for bad ones)? 22