Recent Demographic Trends in Europe and the World 28 European Demographic Forum Wolfgang Lutz Director, Vienna Institute of Demography, Austrian Academy of Sciences Leader, World Population Program, IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis)
Outline The global demographic divide deepens The demography of human capital Are fertility rates in Europe recovering? Demographic outlook: certainties and uncertainties Demographic trends in the regions of Europe
World Population Trends: The Big Picture The 2 th century was the century of population growth (with the world population increasing from 1.6 to 6.1 billion). World population is likely to peak in 26-28 around 9 billion. The 21 st century will be that of global population ageing (with the proportion above age 6 increasing from currently.1 to.25-.45 by 21). The speed of population ageing will accelerate over the coming decades. Today we live an a demographically divided world with some regions (Africa, Arab World) still growing very fast, while others are ageing rapidly (Europe, East Asia, North America) and some are already shrinking (Eastern Europe).
Recent Demographic Surprises and new Insights at the Global Level Fertility has continued to decline in East Asia: In China the TFR is now estimated around 1.5 In major Chinese cities it is below 1. In Taiwan it is 1.1 Japanese official projections assume long term level of 1.2 Iran experienced the world s most rapid fertility decline from around 7. in early 198s to less than 2. today. This was associated with massive increases in female education. Africa is experiencing a stalled fertility decline. In several countries declines have stopped at very high level. Increasing evidence on the key role of education and human capital for population and development
Mortality under age 5 by mothers education (Source: DHS)
Total Fertility Rate by Education (Source: DHS)
Kenya -Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 2 -Global Education Trend - Kenya Scenario 2 1+ 95-99 9-94 85-89 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 6 4 2 2 4 6 Males Population in Thousands Females
Kenya 25 Kenya -Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 25 -Global Education Trend - Scenario 1+ 95-99 9-94 85-89 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 6 4 2 2 4 6 Males Population in Thousands Females
Kenya - Population by Age, Sex and Educational Attainment in 25 -Constant Enrollment Number - Scenario 1+ 95-99 9-94 85-89 8-84 75-79 7-74 65-69 6-64 55-59 5-54 45-49 4-44 35-39 3-34 25-29 2-24 15-19 Kenya 25 Constant Enrollment Number Scenario No Education Primary Secondary Tertiary 7 5 3 1 1 3 5 7 Males Population in Thousands Females
The Changing Human Capital Distribution in the World Education level of population aged 15-64 in four mega-regions, Global Trend Scenario 1,2 8 Europe and North America China Region South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa 4 2 215 23 2 215 23 2 215 23 2 215 23 No education Primary Secondary Tertiary
Recent Demographic Trends and Outlook in Europe Three Forces of Demographic Change: Mortality: Life expectancy continues its long term increase. No signs of leveling off yet. Healthy life expectancy also increases. Migration: Migration trends are highly volatile and hard to predict. Migration gains are expected to keep many EU member states from shrinking. It is unclear whether the retirement of the Baby Boom Generation will result in more immigration. Fertility: The Total Fertility Rate has increased somewhat in several countries. Is this a turnaround in the trend or simply the expected end of the tempo effect that had depressed fertility rates as long as the mean age of childbearing was increasing?
2.2 2. Fertility indicators for Spain TFR adjtfr adjpatfr MAFB 3 29 Fertility level 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 28 27 26 25 Mean age at first birth 1. 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 Year 24
First Births.95.9.85.8 Fertility level.75.7.65.6.55.5 TFR1 PATFR1 adjpatfr1 198 1985 199 1995 2 25
Summary of Key Points Continued fertility declines in Asia reaching extremely low levels in East Asia. This is the main reason for expecting a peak in world population growth in the second half of the century, followed by decline. The speed of global population ageing will accelerate of the coming decades. Stalled fertility decline in Africa interacting with stalled development. Key role of education and human capital. Fertility rates recently recovered in several European countries. This recovery is to some extent due to the expected end of the fertility depressing tempo effect. Divergence of fertility trends in Europe: Rather high in Northern Europe and France, low in Southern, Central and Eastern Europe Regional differences within countries are also significant and matter. Demographic trends will continue to preoccupy Europe and the world.