A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO MODELLING WATER-ENERGY-FOOD NEXUS Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The University of Western Ontario London, Ontario, Canada
2 WEF Modelling Conclusions WEF nexus New challenges High level of integration High level of complexity Common concerns Systems approach Modelling of the whole system System dynamics simulation (and optimization) Modelling of various scales Global Regional. ANEMI model example
3 WEF Modelling Outline Challenges of the new/old context Integration Systems approach Example ANEMI model Lessons learned Conclusions
4 WEF Context Definitions Nexus? A center point of something! A center of various connections! Water, energy and food pillars of global security, prosperity and equity Perspectives Water perspective food and energy systems are users of resources Food perspective water and energy are inputs Energy perspective water is the input and food is the output Vast individual areas Policy and regulations often create sub-optimal solutions
5 WEF Context Challenges Water-Energy-Food common concerns Access to services Environmental impacts Price volatility Climate change Mitigation energy Adaptation land and water Growing population Poverty Health Management Enormous opportunities for higher efficiency Study of the whole complex system Understanding interactions it is all about feedbacks Scale 1.4 billion people without access to electricity 3 billion with out access to modern fuels or technologies for cooking and heating 900 million people without access to safe drinking water 2.6 billion do not have sanitation 900 million people are chronically hungry 2 billion people lack food security
7 WEF Modelling Systems approach Consideration of all three areas together Systems view Complexity Whole system approach Difficult to translate into government policy making processes System structure Feedbacks System behavior
8 WEF Modelling Example ANEMI NSERC Discovery Grant (2005 2007) ANEMI ver 1 NSERC Strategic Grant (2007 2011) ANEMI ver 2 Project objectives i. To develop system dynamics-based model sectors of all biophysical ii. iii. iv. elements of the environment that are relevant to climate change. To develop system dynamics-based model sectors of all socio-economic elements of the environment that are relevant to climate change. To couple the biophysical sectors of the model with important socioeconomic sectors. To provide support for communication between the science and policy communities. v. To examine the effects of climate change on socio-economic and environmental sustainability through the model outputs. Interdisciplinary team Systems modelling engineering Climate policy geography and political science Economics economics Partners Environment Canada Natural Resources Canada Department of Finance Department of Fisheries and Oceans Department of Agriculture
Water Stress Effects (dimensionless) 9 WEF Modelling Example ANEMI Selection of the methodological approach First workshop ANEMI model development Structure Sectors Preliminary results Identification of key issues Communication with the project collaborators Selection of simulation scenarios Second workshop ANEMI model expansion Economy-energy integration Model regionalization Model use Scenario analyses Model limitations Third workshop Model transfer Future work 0.28 0.26 0.24 0.22 0.20 0.18 0.16 Water stress Effects: Canada Condition 2 degree with transfer 3 degree with transfer 4 degree with transfer 2 degree 3 degree 4 degree 0.14 0.12 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 (Year)
WEF Modelling 10 Example ANEMI - Pollution Index Clearing and Burning Land Use Population - - - Land Use Emissions Consumption and Labour Fertility Water Consumption Arable Land Per capita food Food Production Energy-Economy Water use efficiency Water Stress - Agricultural allocation Surface Flow Emission Index GDP per capita Carbon Water use Intensity Wastewater Reuse Temperature Industrial emission Temperature Water Demand Wastewater Water Quality Treatment Wastewater Treatment and Reuse Temperature Water Stress Atmospheric CO 2 Climate 1. Carbon cycle 2. Climate 3. Water Use 4. Water Quality 5. Surface Flow 6. Population 7. Land Use 8. Food Production 9. Energy-Economy
WEF Modelling 11 Example ANEMI - Water 2 0 - Eres - Cwa - Cgw - Cwl 0 SF = SF LS LS C loss
WEF Modelling 12 Example ANEMI - Food F p L y A l L fh (1 P) l
WEF Modelling 13 Example ANEMI - Energy Y t = E El = A El t A K t ( t t L t t E (1- t - t ) t El El El El El 1 FEl,1 2FEl,2 3FEl,3 4FEl,4 5FEl,5 ) 1 El
WEF Modelling 14 Example ANEMI Simulation & optimization
WEF Modelling 15 Example ANEMI global and regional Global model Regional model Canada and rest-of-the-world (ROW)
WEF Modelling 16 Example ANEMI policy scenarios Policy communication process Set of interviews Identification of policy questions by the research team Identification of scenarios Initial set of scenarios Carbon pricing Economic growth rate Water pricing North American water stress Irrigation Energy subsidies and pricing Land use change Final choice Carbon tax Increased water use Food production increase
CO 2 concentration (ppm) Population (Billion) 10 11 GJ GDP (trillion $) WEF Modelling 17 Example ANEMI Carbon tax scenario (global) 6 Energy Used for Electricity Production 500 GDP 5 4 With Tax 400 300 With Tax 3 2 200 1 100 0 0 600 550 500 450 400 350 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration With Tax 300 Global Population 14 13 12 With Tax 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4
Food(trillion kilocalorie /yr) Population (Billion) Surface water (km^3) Water Stress (dimensionless) WEF Modelling 18 Example ANEMI Increased water use scenario (global) 15900 15800 15700 15600 15500 15400 15300 Available Surface Water Water use increase 15200 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 Water Stress 0.30 Water use increase 20000 16000 12000 8000 4000 Water use increase Food Production 0 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 Water use increase Global Population 4
Population (Billion) Surface water (km^3) CO 2 concentration (ppm) WEF Modelling 19 Example ANEMI Increased food production scenario (global) 15900 15800 15700 15600 15500 15400 Available Surface Water Increase in food production 600 550 500 450 400 Atmospheric CO 2 Concentration Increase in food production 15300 350 15200 300 Global Population 14 13 Increase in food production 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4
Thousand $ 10 9 GJ CO 2 Emissions (Gt) WEF Modelling 20 Example ANEMI Carbon tax scenario (regional) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 Total Energy Used in the Production of Aggregate Energy Services (Canada) With Tax 0 Industrial CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (Canada) 0.8 0.7 With Tax 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 GDP Per Capita (Canada) 45 40 35 With Tax 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
CO 2 emissions (Gt) Water Stress(dimensionless) WEF Modelling 21 Example ANEMI Increased water use scenario (regional) 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 Water Stress (Canada) Water use increase 0.00 0.8 CO 2 Emissions from Fossil Fuel (Canada) 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 Water use increase 0.1 0
Water Stress(dimensionless) Food(trillion kilocalorie/yr) WEF Modelling 22 Example ANEMI Increased food production scenario (regional) 350 Food Production(Canada) 300 250 200 150 100 50 Increase in food production 0 Water Stress (Canada) 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.30 0.25 0.20 0.15 Increase in food production 0.10 0.05 0.00
WEF Modelling 23 Example ANEMI lessons learned Systems approach System dynamic simulation complexity and integrated modelling Integration of simulation and optimization Scenarios Global modelling Regional modelling.
WEF Modelling 24 Example ANEMI conclusions WEF nexus New challenges High level of integration High level of complexity Common concerns Systems approach Modelling of the whole system System dynamics simulation (and optimization) Modelling of various scales Global Regional. ANEMI model example
WEF Modelling 25 Resources Simonovic, S.P., and E.G.R. Davies (2006), Are we modeling impacts of climate change properly?, invited commentary, Hydrological Processes Journal, 20, pp.431-433. Davies, E.G.R. and S. P. Simonovic (2009). Energy Sector for the Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Economic-Climatic Model. Water Resources Research Report no. 063, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 191 pages. ISBN: (print) 978-0-7714-2712-1; (online) 978-0-7714-2713-8. Davies, E.G.R, and S.P. Simonovic, (2010) ANEMI: A New Model for Integrated Assessment of Global Change, the Interdisciplinary Environmental Review special issue on Climate Change, 11(2/3):127-161. M. Khaled Akhtar,M.K., S. P. Simonovic, J. Wibe, J. MacGee and J. Davies (2011). An Integrated System Dynamics Model for Analyzing Behaviour of the Social-Energy- Economy-Climate System: Model Description. Water Resources Research Report no. 075, Facility for Intelligent Decision Support, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, London, Ontario, Canada, 211 pagesisbn: (print) 978-0-7714-2896-8; (online) 978-0-7714-2903-3. www.slobodansimonovic.com -> research -> fids