www.pwc.com Santanomics: The economics of the festive season
Contents Slide 3 - Introduction Slide 4 - Executive summary Slide 5 - Christmas spending in 2013 Slide 8 - Trends in Christmas spending Slide 14 - Appendices 2
Introduction During the Christmas period, consumers in many countries increase their spending as they purchase presents, decorations, food etc. for the festive period. This increase in spending makes this a make or break time for retailers and their supply chain. Therefore businesses need to be aware of how consumer spending will change over this period. To this end, we have attempted to calculate spending over the Christmas period by looking at the excess spending that occurs in November and December over and above the average of the other months of the year. We have estimated spending over the Christmas period, both in per person and aggregate terms, in the major Western economies, and, and the peripheral Eurozone economies that we monitor (see the appendices at the back for a more detailed description of our methodology and the sources of the data we used). It should be noted that our results give a broad indication of cross-country trends in Christmas spending but should not be taken as precise dollar estimates. The following slides set out our results and show how countries have moved in the rankings over time, as well as how Christmas spending has recovered from the financial crisis. 3
Executive summary 1. 2. 3. 4. tops the rankings of Christmas spending per person, with shoppers spending around $1,200 during the holiday season; GDP weighted Christmas spending per person in the Eurozone periphery fell by around 28% overall between 2007-13 (see chart), as the crisis hit these economies particularly hard. In terms of aggregate Christmas spending, and make the Top 10 despite spending relatively little per person (see chart); and The remains the largest Christmas market in the world, spending more than $240 billion during the holidays. Real Christmas spending per person is lower in and than in advanced economies 1000 GDP weighted Christmas spending per person (constant 2013 $) We have analysed real spending over the Christmas period across 12 countries. Our results show that: 800 600 400 200 0 Major Western economies 2007 Eurozone periphery and 2013 Sources: analysis, Datastream, national statistical agencies, World Bank Notes: Major Western economies G7 excluding Japan Eurozone periphery,, & 4
Christmas spending in 2013 5
ranks top of the per person Christmas spending league table with the ranking highest amongst the major Western economies Real Christmas spending per person (constant 2013 $) 682 93 1,065 520 1,184 776 188 357 184 574 462 Key Ranks 1-3 166 Ranks 4-6 Ranks 7-9 Ranks 10-12 Sources: analysis, Datastream, national statistical agencies, World Bank 6
The is the largest Christmas market in the world with spending in 2013 above that of the,, and combined Real total Christmas spending (constant 2013 $ bn) 24 13 68 42 5 245 2 4 9 38 28 Key Ranks 1-3 33 Ranks 4-6 Ranks 7-9 Ranks 10-12 Sources: analysis, Datastream, national statistical agencies, World Bank 7
Trends in Christmas spending 8
How has Christmas spending changed over time? On a per person basis:, the and the were the top 3 Christmas spenders in our sample in 2003, 2007 and 2013; has been on a generally downward trend moving from 4th in the rankings in 2003 to 7th in 2013; and and ranked bottom of the Christmas spending league in 2003, 2007 and 2013. In aggregate terms: The is the clear leader in overall Christmas spending; By 2013 Christmas spending in had overtaken that in while had overtaken and ; and has moved from 9th in 2003 to last in 2013. 9
Irish consumers spend the most per person over the Christmas period while and sit bottom of the rankings Real Christmas spending per person rankings 2003 Rank Country 2007 Rank Country 2013 Rank Country 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 Sources: analysis, Datastream, national statistical agencies, World Bank 10
Spending per person over the Christmas period increased most in and the compared to the other months of the year in 2013 Boost in spending during November and December compared to the rest of the year Spending boost during Christmas 2013 compared to the rest of the year* (%) 35% 30% 25% 20% 2007 average 18% 15% 2013 average 16% 10% 5% 0% Sources: analysis, Datastream, national statistical agencies, World Bank *This shows by what percentage spending in November and December exceeds the average spending in 2 months of the year during the non-christmas period i.e. January - October 11
,, the and spent more per person last Christmas than in 2007 Recovery of Christmas spending per person from the financial crisis Overall percent change in per person Christmas spending (2007-13) 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% Sources: analysis, Datastream, national statistical agencies, World Bank 12
In aggregate terms, Christmas spending in has overtaken that in while has overtaken and Real total Christmas spending rankings 2003 Rank Country 2007 Rank Country 2013 Rank Country 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 Sources: analysis, Datastream, national statistical agencies, World Bank 13
Appendices 14
Appendix A: Methodology The following approach was used to obtain estimates of Christmas spending: We obtained real annual household consumption per capita and real annual household consumption data from the World Bank as well as real monthly retail sales data (non-seasonally adjusted) from national statistical agencies. We then converted both the total and per capita household consumption data into a monthly format by assuming it follows the same trend i.e. monthly distribution, as retail sales. Using this new series, we defined and estimated Christmas spending as the excess expenditure arising in November and December compared to the other months of the year. However other seasonal spending patterns may exist during a calendar year, and the distribution of Christmas spending could also vary, for example, a larger share of Christmas spending could occur before November. Therefore these numbers should be interpreted as giving a broad indication of crosscountry differences in Christmas spending habits as opposed to precise dollar estimates. We limited our analysis to the G7 excluding Japan (which we have called the major Western economies), and, and the peripheral Eurozone economies which we monitor. We excluded China, Japan and India as Christmas is not a traditional holiday there, despite Christmas becoming more of a commercial event in these countries, as any results and interpretations could have been less reliable. All of our numbers are in constant 2013 dollar terms. 15
Appendix B: Data sources Variable Reason for including Source (s) Retail sales (non-seasonally adjusted) The trend in monthly real retail sales was used to convert annual household expenditure data into a monthly format National statistical agencies, Thomson Reuters Datastream Consumer prices index This was used, where necessary, to deflate a nominal retail sales time series National statistical agencies, Thomson Reuters Datastream Annual household final consumption expenditure per capita (constant 2005 $) This was converted into a monthly series assuming it follows the same trend as retail sales World Bank World Development Indicators Annual household final consumption expenditure (constant 2005 $) This was converted into a monthly series assuming it follows the same trend as retail sales World Bank World Development Indicators GDP deflator Data was converted from constant 2005 $ into constant 2013 $ using the GDP deflator Bureau of Economic Analysis, Thomson Reuters Datastream GDP (current $) GDP weights were calculated using nominal GDP to estimate the GDP weighted Christmas spending per person World Bank World Development Indicators 16
For more details about this report please contact Richard Boxshall T: +44 (0)20 7213 2079 E: richard.boxshall@uk.pwc.com To find out more read our articles on this topic: Santanomics: Who spends the most during the festive season? Barret Kupelian T: + 44 (0)20 7213 1579 E: barret.g.kupelian@uk.pwc.com Scars from financial crisis still visible on Christmas spending Conor Lambe T: +44 (0)20 7212 8783 E: conor.r.lambe@uk.pwc.com This publication has been prepared for general guidance on matters of interest only, and does not constitute professional advice. You should not act upon the information contained in this publication without obtaining specific professional advice. No representation or warranty (express or implied) is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this publication, and, to the extent permitted by law, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP, its members, employees and agents do not accept or assume any liability, responsibility or duty of care for any consequences of you or anyone else acting, or refraining to act, in reliance on the information contained in this publication or for any decision based on it. 2014 PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. All rights reserved. In this document, "" refers to the member firm, and may sometimes refer to the network. Each member firm is a separate legal entity. Please see www.pwc.com/structure for further details.