Population Change in the UK: The challenging demography Professor Jane Falkingham ESRC Centre for Population Change PACTS Conference: Older, Wiser, Safer The Challenge of an Ageing Population 13th October 2011
A century of population change in the UK In 1901 the population of the UK was 39.3 million By 2001 it had reached 59 million In 1901, the total fertility rate was 3.5 By 2001 it was 1.7 In 1901 the average life expectancy for a man was 45 In 2001 it was 75 Rise in life expectancy across the last century is equivalent to equivalent to 7 hours a day! During the twentieth century more people emigrated from the UK than immigrated The net exodus from the UK was over 15 million 2
The drivers of population change The size, composition and distribution of a population are determined by fertility, mortality and migration. Pt 2 = Pt 1 + B - D + I - E Where: Pt 2 Population at time t 2 Pt 1 Population at time t 1 B Births D Deaths I In-migration E Out-migration 3
Fig 1: Births and Deaths 1901 to 2001, UK 1.2 1.1 1 0.9 Millions 0.8 Births Deaths 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 4
Fig 2: Annual net international migration 1901 2001, UK 150 100 50 Thousands 0-50 -100-150 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 Source: Annual Abstracts of Statistics 5
Population change in the UK today Today just over 62 million The population of the UK grew by just over 1,ooo people a day last year The rate of population growth is increasing 0.6% per year since 2001, compared to 0.3 per cent per year 1991-2001 and 0.2 per cent per year 1981-1991 Driven by increasing fertility, improving mortality and net migration 6
The challenging demography?
Population ageing is often portrayed as a demographic time bomb 8
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Population Ageing Distinguish between individual & population ageing Individuals age continuously from birth to death Populations can become older or younger depending on their age structure 11
Fig 3: Proportion of Britain s population aged 65 plus (%), 1901-2041 30 25 20 % 15 10 65+ 85+ 5 0 1901 1921 1941 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 Source: ONS Population Trends and Population Projections (selected volumes). 12
How do populations grow old? Fertility, mortality, migration FERTILITY Falling fertility, fewer babies, fewer younger people in population, thus a higher proportion of the population who are elderly The level of fertility determines the numbers of people entering the population at its base. 13
Fig 1: Births and Deaths 1901 to 2001, UK 1.2 1.1 1 Millions 0.9 0.8 Births Deaths 0.7 0.6 0.5 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 14
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Fig 4a Age pyramids, 1951 and 2001, United Kingdom Thousands UK population: 2001 and 1951 (coloured) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 Males Females 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 1 st baby -boom 2 nd baby -boom 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 0-4 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 Baby bust WWII 1 st baby -boom urce: 1951, 2001 Censuses 16
Fig 4b Age pyramids, 2001, and 2031, United Kingdom Thousands UK population: 2001 and 2031 (coloured) 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 Males Females 65-69 60-64 55-59 Second baby boom 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 Sustained low fertility 5-9 0-4 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 17
What role for mortality? Reduced mortality affects all age groups - it increases the number of young persons as well as old. Lower mortality leads to a higher average age at death. However, the average age of a population is the average age of living people, not their average age of death. BUT Reductions in mortality at very old ages can cause ageing from the apex of the population pyramid. Mortality decline at older ages leads to the ageing of the elderly population 18
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Fig 5: Number of very old (90 plus) by age and gender, UK 2010 400,000 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 100+ 95-99 90-94 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Men Women Today, over 475,000 people in the UK are aged 90 or more 20
Fig 6: Population aged 100 years and over, UK, 1965-2010 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 Total Men Women 2000 0 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Today, over 12,500 people in the UK are aged 100 or more 21
Fig 7: Projected population aged 85 and over, UK 2008, 2023 and 2033 2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 2008 2023 2033 600 400 200 0 85-89 90-94 95-99 100 & over thousands 22
Table 1: Age at which at least 50 percent of a birth cohort is still alive Birth year Country 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Canada 102 102 103 103 103 104 104 104 Germany 99 100 100 100 101 101 101 102 France 102 102 103 103 103 104 104 104 Italy 102 102 102 103 103 103 104 104 Japan 104 105 105 105 106 106 106 107 Netherlands 100 100 100 100 101 101 101 102 United Kingdom 100 101 101 101 102 102 103 103 USA 101 102 102 103 103 103 104 104 Source: Vaupel, 2010 23
Fig 8a: Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HLE-3, HLE-5) 1,2 and disability free life expectancy (DFLE) for males at age 65; 2000-02 to 2007-09, UK 22 18 Years 14 10 6 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 LE HLE-3 HLE-5 DFLE 1 HLE-3 based on 3-point general health question; 2000-02 to 2005-07. 2 HLE-5 based on 5-point general health question; 2005-07 to 2007-09. Estimates for 2000-02 to 2004-06 are simulations based on original survey data. Shown as a dashed line 24
Fig 8b: Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HLE-3, HLE-5) 1,2 and disability free life expectancy (DFLE) for females at age 65; 2000-02 to 2007-09, UK 22 18 Years 14 10 6 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 LE HLE-3 HLE-5 DFLE 1 HLE-3 based on 3-point general health question; 2000-02 to 2005-07. 2 HLE-5 based on 5-point general health question; 2005-07 to 2007-09. Estimates for 2000-02 to 2004-06 are simulations based on original survey data. Shown as a dashed line 25
Fig 9a: Percentage of older men who are drivers England, 2008/9 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Never Driver Ex Driver Driver 30% 20% 10% 0% 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Source: WAVE 4 (2008/9) of English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 26
Fig 9b: Percentage of older women who are drivers England, 2008/9 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Never Driver Ex Driver Driver 30% 20% 10% 0% 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85-89 90+ Source: WAVE 4 (2008/9) of English Longitudinal Study of Ageing 27
Fig 8b: Life expectancy, healthy life expectancy (HLE-3, HLE-5) 1,2 and disability free life expectancy (DFLE) for females at age 65; 2000-02 to 2007-09, UK 22 18 Years 14 10 6 2000-02 2001-03 2002-04 2003-05 2004-06 2005-07 2006-08 2007-09 LE HLE-3 HLE-5 DFLE 1 HLE-3 based on 3-point general health question; 2000-02 to 2005-07. 2 HLE-5 based on 5-point general health question; 2005-07 to 2007-09. Estimates for 2000-02 to 2004-06 are simulations based on original survey data. Shown as a dashed line 28
Other demographic changes affecting later life
Fig 10: People living alone, by sex and age: 1986/87 and 2005, Great Britain Men Age 75 and over 65 74 45 64 Women 1986/87 2005 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Percentages 25 44 16 24 1986/87 2005 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percentages Source: General Household Survey (Longitudinal) 30
Fig 11: Females aged 65 and over by partnership status, 2003-2031, England and Wales 8,000 6,000 2003 2011 2021 2031 4,000 2,000 0 Total Married Cohabiting Never married alone Source: ONS (2006) Marital Status Projections 2003-2031 Previously married alone 31
Increasing childlessness, but also significant proportions with 3+ births Number of children at age 40 Cohort 0 1 2 3 4+ 1945 10 14 43 21 12 1950 14 13 44 19 10 1955 16 13 41 19 10 1960 20 12 38 20 10 1965 21 13 38 18 10 1968 19 17 37 17 10 Source: ONS (2010) Birth Statistics 32
Fig 12: Changing life course. Proportion of individuals experiencing various life events by age 25, by birth cohort 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 Marriage Birth of child Cohabitation Marriage breakdown 20 10 0 1943-47 1948-52 1953-57 1958-62 1963-67 1968-72 1973-77 birth cohort 33
Changing life course Years of Age 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1930s Late industrial, incipient welfare state Education Work/family raising E 0 Cease work 2000s Postmodern welfare state Education Work/family raising Retirement E 0 E 0 = average life expectancy at birth (both sexes) = Time spent in Education = Time spent in Retirement Source: Adapted from A. Warnes (2006) 34
Fig 13: Percentage of older people (aged 65 and over) in employment 1996 to 2011, UK 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Source: ONS Labour Force Survey; data are for May-July each year Men Women 35
The challenges and opportunities of an ageing population? Health care costs Personal social services Pensions Affordability of the welfare state Longer later life to work, rest & play Greater volunteering by older people Longer to contribute to community, society 36
Concluding thoughts Demographic trends matter! Key factors for determining future will be: Trends in mortality and morbidity at older ages Trends in fertility and patterns of family building Trends in marriage and divorce New family forms e.g. living apart together 37