Climate Change and Rice Production Tran Dang Hoa Faculty of Agronomy Hue University of Agriculture and Forestry Vietnam
4 millions ha Main regions: - Red river delta - Central - Mekong delta
Climate Change Effects Relevant for Rice Production
Climate change in Vietnam Sea level rises 2.5-3 cm/ 10 years in the last century
Vietnam sea level rise (SLR, cm) as compared with 1980-1999 Scenarios Emission 2020 2050 2100 B1 Low 11 28 65 B2 Medium 12 30 75 A2 High 12 33 100
Red river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise of 1m
Mekong river delta: land area will be under water if sea level rise of 1m
Temperature increase 23.0 O C Annual temperature Average temperature increase 0.1 0 C/10 years. Average temperature of some months in summer is increase 0.1-0.3 0 C/ 10 years. 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0 3 4 2 1 Year 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of Temperature at A Luoi station.
Vietnam Temperature increased as compared with 1980-1999 Scenarios T(0C) 2020 2050 2100 A2 B1 High Increase Low Increase 0.5 1.5 2.8 0.3 0.8 1.6
5000 mm Rainfall of Aug.-Dec. Rainfall is decrease in dry season, but increase in raining season. Heavy raining causes strong flood frequently 4000 3000 2000 1000 3 4 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2 1 Year Variability (1), climatological average (2), moving average (time step - 11 year) (3) and linear trend (4) of August-December rainfall at A Luoi station.
Typhoon - Non rule - moves to the south.
Action plan on rice production Mitigation/Adaptation Climate change mitigation is any action taken to permanently eliminate or reduce the long-term risk and hazards of climate change to human life or property Climate change adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damage, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences.
Mitigation GHG from Agriculture 2050, GHG from agriculture will be increased 30% FAO, April 11, 2014
Climate Change Mitigation within the rice agricultural sector Agriculture causes about 25 % global anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, 65-70 % of CH 4, and 90 % of N 2 O emissions Rice paddies contributing about 12% to global CH 4 emissions (second largest after cattle livestock) Global Warming Potential (GWP): CH 4 25 times higher than CO 2 N 2 O 298 times higher than CO 2
Rice varieties Fertilizer Water management http://www.ibp.ethz.ch (modified)
GHG from Agriculture sectors in Vietnam (MONRE, 2000) CO2 Equ (MT) % Rice Field 37.4 57.5 Live stock ( Fermentation &Manure) 11.1 17.2 Soils 14.2 21.8 Burning field 0.59 0.9 Crops Residues Burning 1.70 2.6 Total 100
GHG experiments on paddy fields Hue province MIRSA project 2014 Quang Nam province LUCCi project 6 seasons 2010-2013
Alternate Wetting and Drying (AWD) 10 Field water depth (Cm) 5 2.5 0 soil surface flowering CF AWD -5-10 -15-20 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 transp Early Late PI to complete grain Maturity recovery tillering tillering flowering filling DAT
Safe AWD: - 15 cm
Applying nutrients as and when needed Adjusting nutrient application to crop needs in given location and season A standardized leaf color chart (LCC) Site-specific nutrient management
Gas analysis GC: SRI 8610C GC setting, 2011
LUCCi project Yield ton ha-1 6 4 a CF a AWD a a Yield ton ha -1 6 4 a a CF AWD a a 2 2 0 Nam Phuoc Dai Loc Summer Autumn 2011 0 Nam Phuoc Dai Loc Winter - Spring 2011-2012 No difference in yield of different water management practices
GMP ton ha-1 16 14 12 10 8 6 CF 41.9% reduction AWD 44.3% reduction GWP ton ha -1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 CF AWD 33.6 % reduction 31 % reduction 4 2 2 1 0 Summer - Autumn 2011 Dai Loc Winter - Spring 2011-2012 0 Summer - Autumn 2011 Winter - Spring 2011-2012 Nam Phuoc Global Warm Potential
MIRSA project ton ha -1 Potential yield Grain yield 10 a 8 b b 6 A A A 4 2 0 CF ADW AWDS Treatment Yield (ton/ha)
CH4 mg m -2 d -1 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 150 100 50 0-50 -100-150 -200-250 Methane fluxes CF AWD AWDS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Daily average water level (mm) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 DAS
N2O mg m -2 d -1 8.40 7.40 6.40 5.40 4.40 3.40 2.40 MDL N applied Nitrous oxide fluxes CF AWD AWDS N applied 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Daily average water level (mm) 150 100 50 0-50 -100-150 -200-250 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 DAS
Seasonal cumulative gas emission CH4 kg ha -1 N 2 O kg ha -1 605 104 days 3.00 104 days 505 405 22% reduction 15% reduction 2.95 2.90 2.85 305 2.80 2.75 MDL 205 2.70 2.65 105 2.60 2.55 5 CF AWD AWDS 2.50 CF AWD AWDS CH4 N 2 O
Adaptation: IRRI projects Aerobic rice system Treat rice like any other (irrigated) crop: No puddling, no standing water, aerobic soil
Salinity tolerance variety
Cropping System & Management in coastal zones Salinity control + irrigation water Calendar Wat Mgt Wat Source Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Salinity Winter Spring Summer Autumn Autumn Winter Grav IrriPump Irrigation River W Rver+St Wat Rainfed Grav Irrig River water Salinity control; no irrigation water Calendar Wat Mgt Wat Source P irri St W Salinity Summer Autumn Autumn Winter Leaching Rainfed Grav Irrig P Irr River Wat St W No salinity control Calendar 1 Calendar 2 Salinity Brackish water Shrimp Main season rainfed rice Main season rainfed rice = Land preparation Grav Irrig = gravity irrigation P Irrig = Pump irrigation St Wa = Stored Water
Saline period Low/non-saline Prepar ation Shrimp Rice Leaching Wat Stor DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Sensitivity to Heat Stress LOW HIGH MEDIUM Leaf, tiller and root development Panicle development Pollination Grain filling
Seasonal calendar Rice Crop 50 Temperature( o C) 40 30 20 10 0 MAXIMUM MINIMUM JAN FEB MAR APR MAY Vegetative JUN JUL AUG Flowering Grain Filling SEP OCT NOV DEC
Conclusion Climate Change Mitigation: Rice systems have to become more efficient in terms of Water use Fertilizer uptake Harvest index
Adaptation: Rice systems have to become more resilient to Drought Submergence Salinity Heat waves By Germplasm development Crop management Cropping system Resource management and Structures
QUESTION to Restructure Program Sources Measures Need - Too much water used for rice - Too low efficiency of inputs (fertilizers, pesticides, waters) - Soil degradation - Low C-soil sink - Increase GHG - Saving water=> precision irrigation system - Changes the way of rice cultivation (less input. less water uses.=> high efficiency.) - Re-use rice/ crop residues; mulching/ Bio-char/ Min tillage - Added values for all agriculture products & by products - N e w Technology - New behaviors - Precision agriculture - C-sequence
- Low comparative productivity - Uncertainly income - Replace Rice by other crops with reversible ways - Added values for all Rice products & by products - New techniques? - Multiple cropping - Investment - New Marketing Approach
- Sea level rise - Weather uncertainty - Salinity - Drought/ - Flooding - Heat/cool - Physical and biological ways - Inter-field damps - Multiple cropping - Mixed cropping - Modelling - New behaviors - Good prediction - Good investment design - Useful Information/data
Thanks for your attention