Asia Pacific Aviation Industry Overview & Regulatory Challenges Andrew Herdman Andrew Herdman Director General Association of Asia Pacific Airlines
Overview Air travel Global mobility Future growth Asia Pacific aviation Regulatory challenges
Aviation: moving the world Air travel delivers global mobility 2,800 million passengers Carries 35% by value of global trade Wider social and economic benefits Outstanding safety record Source: ATAG www.aviationbenefitsbeyondborders.org
Crisis Management Response Accidents earthquakes typhoons Accidents, earthquakes, typhoons, floods, volcanic ash
Current Business Conditions
Global passenger and cargo traffic Global international passenger and cargo traffic Passenger traffic growth maintained, but very weak cargo demand d Source: IATA
Premium and economy traffic Slower recovery in premium traffic Source: IATA
Oil price volatility Persistently high oil prices reflect Persistently high oil prices reflect political risk factors
Global airline industry profitability Margins squeezed by high oil prices
Global Economic Outlook
Global recovery moderates World growth 2010 +5.2% 2011 +3.8% 2012E +3.3% 2013F +3.9% Pattern of two-speed growth maintained Source: IMF
World output long term historical trends Source: Maddison (2010) & Conference Board Output measured on PPP basis
Asia Pacific Diverse geographic region Home to more than 4 billion people 62% of the world s population Generates 27% of global GDP Wide range of income levels Dynamic economies delivering global growth Aviation widely recognised as a key contributor to economic and social development p Political diversity remains challenging: need for multilateral cooperation
Asia Pacific Aviation
Asia Pacific Aviation US$163 billion revenue 652 million passengers 457 million domestic 195 million international 17.6 million tonnes of cargo 4,984 aircraft Asia Pacific carriers overall market share: 27% of global passenger traffic 41% of global cargo traffic Data: 2011 Estimates Source: Combined AAPA + non-aapa airlines GMT+7 to GMT+12
Airline enterprise values by region Asia Pacific Europe North America Delta Air Lines Southwest United Continental US Airways Air Canada Ryanair Lufthansa AF - KLM BA - Iberia Aeroflot Air China All Nippon China Eastern Cathay Pacific Qantas - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 US$ million Market Capitalisation Long Term Debt Market capitalisation as of 08 March 2012 Source: AAPA Estimates
Airline Strategies
Refocusing on growth Competition demands constant focus on productivity improvements and reducing unit costs Innovation in both services and business models Ongoing capital investment in fleets, airports and other services infrastructure Recruitment and training of skilled workforce Manage risks including currency and oil price volatility Crisis management preparedness Aviation as a business also faces significant regulatory constraints and government policy risks
Evolving Business Models Full Service Network Carriers Still investing heavily in premium services Streamlining short haul operations Establishing LCC subs and associates Point-to-Point LCCs Initially focused on domestic short-haul Venturing into international and longer-haul markets Experimenting with codeshares, connections, adding customer service Further signs of convergence Long-haul invariably uses wide body aircraft, involves cargo operations, two-class passenger configurations Development of hybrid partnerships and new ventures
Business model innovation in Asia
Growth: complementary business models 2010 Traffic = 4.8 trillion RPK 2030 Traffic = 12.3 trillion RPK Global network carriers expected to thrive Global network carriers expected to thrive despite competition
Future Growth
Asia Pacific traffic will grow significantly Source: Airbus GMF2011-2030
Asia Pacific fleet expansion Source: Boeing CMO 2011-2030
Aviation sustainable growth? Aviation delivers continuous improvements in fuel efficiency through technology, operations and infrastructure The aviation industry is united and has committed to challenging environmental performance targets As a globally competitive, energy-intensive industry, we would prefer a globally harmonised, sector-specific approach to international aviation emissions under ICAO Dangers of a patchwork of overlapping and inconsistent i measures EU ETS risks triggering a trade war Governments set the climate change policy framework but there is a collective failure of political leadership on this issue
Regulatory Challenges
Global Regulatory Influences Asia Pacific Wider impact of US and EU regulations Asia Pacific has limited influence
US and EU regulatory perspectives US continue to be driven by domestic political concerns Safety, led by FAA Politicisation of issues - FTL, Crew experience levels (minimum 1500FH) International Aviation Safety Assessments (IASA) have global impact FAR129 oversight of foreign operators EU also mainly driven by domestic political concerns Safety: EC, EASA, Eurocontrol Centralised approach to both aero-political and regulatory issues Oversight of foreign air carriers Safety Assessment of Foreign Aircraft (SAFA) EC operational ban focuses on weak regulatory oversight but unfairly targets airlines Third Country Operators (as proposed will have wide-ranging impact) Insensitivity about extra-territorial impacts: unilateral actions Harmonisation i efforts focus on US-EU differences
Asia Pacific : regulatory perspectives Highly diverse region: multiple governments and regulators Inconsistencies remain in level of commitment to regulatory oversight and effective implementation Look to ICAO for leadership and guidance Harmonisation more about sharing best practices before legislating, nott about b t resolving l i diff differences after ft unilaterally il t ll iimposed d regulations l ti Increase of third country ramp inspections harmonization an issue Current regional g challenges g include Responding to growth and assuring skill and resource levels SSP implementation including Just Culture Runwayy safetyy development p of Runway y Safety y Teams CFIT Turboprop operations Difficulties in reconciling contradictory US/EU regulations
Safety performance by operator region
Safety oversight ICAO perspectives ICAO accident rates by region, all aircraft types (2006 2010) Averages World 1.20 NA 0.04 EURNAT 1.55 APAC 1.67 Lack of effective implementation of critical elements of a safety oversight system Average compliance levels: Global 60% Some APAC States as low as 20 % South Korea received highest assessment of 98% Safety strategic objectives Policy and Standardization - Safety Monitoring - Safety Analysis Safety Implementation Continuing Airworthiness Runway safety Sharing of safety data and information Controlled Flight into Terrain Regional safety and oversight Loss of Control Safety Management Aircraft system failures
Improving regional safety management Multilateral consultation and collaboration ICAO FAA EC NAA Industry Stakeholders Region Region s s regulators take joint action on regional shortcomings Agree on a regional safety strategy to address mutual challenges Regional Growth Runway safety Limited Li i d regulatory l resources Data and information sharing Skills & Training demands Reinforce role of ICAO in setting gg global standards and regulatory g y oversight Challenge unilateral actions with over-bearing extra-territorial impact Increased recognition of the benefits of industry standards AAPA will continue to actively support the region s region s regulators to address safety and security priorities
Security Air travel is both highly safe and secure Security procedures must balance risks against costs and inconvenience to the public We need intelligence-led, outcome-based, security measures Governments must recognise the benefits of mutual recognition of security regimes Cargo security must involve the entire supply chain Terrorists measure their success by how much we (over)react
Closing Thoughts Society relies on aviation every day, and especially in a crisis Aviation is at the heart of global economic development with bright growth prospects Highly regulated industry, covering both technical, economic and customer service dimensions Strong collaboration between regulators and industry stakeholders essential for success Asia Pacific needs stronger engagement on key international policy and regulatory issues Shared confidence and optimism about the future
www.aapairlines.org Association of Asia Pacific Airlines 9/F Kompleks Antarabangsa Jalan Sultan Ismail Kuala Lumpur 50250 MALAYSIA Tel: +60 3 2145 5600 Fax: +60 3 2145 2500