Stock Pitch. Nikolai Doytchinov, Jonathan Im, Cheng Ma, Yang Wu

Transcription

1 Stock Pitch Nikolai Doytchinov, Jonathan Im, Cheng Ma, Yang Wu

2 Table of Contents I. Investment Thesis II. Industry Outlook III. Company Analysis IV. Valuation 2

3 I. Investment Thesis

4 Delta (NYSE: DAL) Delta s strong management team and network strategy have contributed to sustained earnings growth and will continue to do so, making it a compelling investment based on undervalued market pricing. Recommendation: Buy Current Price: $36.95 Price Target: $54.76 (48% upside) CATALYSTS Network strategy increases presence in major airports (NYC, London Heathrow, Seattle) Recovering U.S. economy will increase both corporate and leisure demand for air travel Effective nonfuel cost reductions are improving operating margins Oil prices forecast to remain flat or decline over the next several years Increased management emphasis on returning cash to shareholders RISKS Fluctuating oil price translates to uncertainty in a major cost driver High fixed costs make profitability very sensitive to demand Public concern about Ebola virus may reduce demand Reduced services in Venezuela due to devalued currency 4

5 II. Industry Outlook

6 Thousands Industry Outlook U.S. Per Capita Disposable Income IMF Crude Oil Price Estimates $ 2009 $ % Change Airlines Industry Revenue Growth Rate in Passenger Air Traffic Source: IBISworld Industrial Report 6

7 III. Company Analysis

8 Company Overview BUSINESS OVERVIEW Delta Air Lines an American airline that provides services globally Founded in 1924 Based in Atlanta, GA Majority of revenue from domestic and Atlantic region Strong management team CEO (Richard Anderson) named one of the world s best CEOs by Barron s in March 2014 President (Ed Bastian) is also on the boards of Aeromexico and GOL and plays pivotal role in joint ventures COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES Leader in industry Higher pre-tax income in 3Q 2013 than all competitors Likely to remain a big player since barrier to entry is strong Strong cash flow Delta is committed to reducing its debt and as a result only plans on spending $2.3b on CapEx compared to competitor American Airlines spending $5b Owns refinery Owns private refinery to hedge against fluctuations in oil prices; expected to save company $300m annually Source: ir.delta.com 8

9 Catalysts Network Strategy increases presence in major airports Bought 49% stake in Virgin Atlantic to expand presence in London Joint ventures to increase presence in NYC International gateway from Seattle to Asia Corporate spending on air travel expected to increase by 7% in 2014; companies like Delta according to survey Recovering U.S. economy will increase demand for air travel Effective cost reductions Source: ir.delta.com 9

10 Delta: Flying contrary to the pack Delta s Strategic View Delta has pursued strategies counter to prevailing industry practice Acquisition of a refinery Subsidiary maintenance company Opportunistic acquisition of older planes 80% ownership of planes compared to on average 60% Old Planes? Costs of acquisition significantly lower 49 used MD-90s from China Southern Airlines 88 Boeing 717s leased from Southwest Purchase of 100 new s, instead of 737 MAX Purchase of 15 A- 321s, instead of A-320neo Highest average age of 16.6 years Other airlines are or are becoming younger Fuel costs are limiting factor for old jet utility Maintenance costs could potentially skyrocket Subsidiary maintenance company is a mitigant 10 different models and 725 planes in their fleet 10

11 New Jets and their Benefits 11

12 Risks & Mitigation Risks Mitigation Reduced services in Venezuela and cash trapped in country due to devalued currency Russia threatens to close its airspace to western airlines Ebola scare may reduce air traffic demand Volatile fuel costs threaten margins Weak economic recovery outside U.S. Venezuela and Latin America in general only affect a small portion of the total revenue Unlikely given severe negative implications for Russian economy; few Delta flights use Russian airspace Empirically, no impact on bookings; Ebola pathogen not transmitted as airborne particle Hedging, refinery ownership, ability to pass costs to consumers, and secular trend of declining oil prices Majority of business is U.S. domestic 12

13 IV. Valuation

14 Comparable Companies Analysis Company Share Price (US$) Market Value (US$mm) Enterprise Value (US$mm) Revenue (x) Enterprise value as a multiple of EBITDA (x) Price / Earnings (x) LTM E LTM E LTM E AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC ,764 32, UNITED CONTINENTAL HOLDINGS ,986 23, SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO ,301 21, JETBLUE AIRWAYS CORP ,990 4, ALASKA AIR GROUP INC ,765 5, Mean 33 14,561 17, Median 34 16,986 21, High 46 24,764 32, Low 11 2,990 4, < E EBITDA Multiples range > Implied EV: 31, , , , , Implied MCAP: 37, , , , , Implied Share Price: < E Revenue Multiples range > Implied EV: 26, , , , , Implied MCAP: 32, , , , , Implied Share Price: < P/E Multiples range > EPS Exchange Rates as of 10/01/14 - Share Prices as of 10/01/14 - EV Adjusted for Minority Interests based on Market Value - EV Adjusted for Equity Value in Associates based on market Value Source: SEC Filings and Bloomberg 14

15 Financial Performance: Historical and Projected Revenue, $mil % EBITDA Margin % Base 15% Base Bear 10% Bear Bull 5% Bull 0 0% EBITDA, $mil Share Price $ $ $ Base Bear Bull $40 $30 $20 $10 $- 10/3/ /3/ /3/ /3/2015 Base Bear Bull Sources: Bloomberg; NASDAQ; authors projections 15

16 Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (Base Case) 16

17 Discounted Cash Flow (Base Case), cont. Valuation Summary In Millions, except per share Sensitivity Analysis Present Value of Enterprise $38,579.4 Less: Total Debt 10,322.0 Less: Minority Interest 0.0 Less: Preferred Equity 0.0 Plus: Cash 4,081.0 Equity Value $52,982.4 Shares Outstanding Equity Value Per Share $62.19 Exit Discount Rate Multiple 8.00% 9.00% 10.00% 11.00% 12.00% 2.5x x x x x

18 Share Price Calculation 18