Offshore wind power Athens Greece Sten Frandsen dr.techn. MSc. stfr@risoe.dtu.dk
My talk: Status of offshore wind activities Economy of offshore wind power plants Future planned and possible deployment in the future; major research issues 2
Entering the post fossil age.. what are our options? Well, other renewable technologies will (hopefully) follow, BUT....wind energy is presently the only technically and economically ready renewable candidate for replacement of fossil fuels 3
New power capacity additions 1999 2008 (EU 27, GW) Total installed wind energy: 200 GW GW 120 100 100,0 Wind, best onshore: 3-4 c /kwh 80 60 58,9 40 20 10,4 0 Natural Gas 50% Wind 29% Coal 5% Photo- Voltaic 4% Fuel Oil 4% Nuclear 3% Hydro 2% 8,8 7,0 5,8 3,9 3,4 1,8 Biomass 2% Other 1% 4 Source: EWEA, EPIA and Platts PowerVision
Renewables How much is there to harvest? 5 REN21-2007
How does the wind turbine make electricity? the wind the wind turbine THE WIND ENERGY FUEL The approaching wind is proportional to the cubed wind speed: Thus, doubling of wind speed: A (swept area) + efficiency Good wind is everything 6
The winds, onshore..and offshore 7
Status of offshore wind energy 8
The substructure options for offshore wts Past Future 9 Shallow water Deep water
Offshore potential 2004 World electricity consumption per year: approx. 2 TWy European prospects: In terms of capacity 20GW 70GW 600GW Rest of world: In terms of energy per y theoretical - 5 TWy/y practical - 0.5 TWy/y Already Obsolete! Potential is much higher! 10 Risø DTU, From Technical Shaw et al University (2002) of Denmark From Siegfriedsen et al (2003).
Two first real demonstration projects Each approx 160 MW (km) Horns Rev Nysted 11
North Sea: Horns Rev monopile 12
The Baltics Nysted gravity foundations 13
Horns Rev 2 September 2009 200 MW Siemens/DONG 14
Offshore current status End 2008: 1.5 GW offshore 8 EU countries 15
Largest stock average offshore wind turbine RePower/Talisman 2x5MW at Beatrice oil platform, Scotland 45m water depth, jacket substructure 16
Not stock average: floating wind turbine 17
Economy etc. of offshore wind power 18
Investment cost per MW Average for the Horns Rev+Nysted DK projects Component Investments 1000 /MW Share % Turbines ex. work, including transport and 815 49 erection Trafo-station and main cable to coast 270 16 Internal grid between turbines 85 5 Foundations 350 21 Design, project management 100 6 Environmental analysis etc. 50 3 Miscellaneous 10 <1 Total 1680 ~100% 19
Supply chain turbine supply (present) Current market players Manufacturer Power output Siemens 3.6 MW Vestas 3 MW Nordex 2.5 MW Repower 5 and 6 MW BARD Eng. 5 MW Multibrid 5 MW Source: MAKE Consulting 2009, own elaboration Manufacturers are expanding their offshore capacity Some have reserved part of their capacity for offshore wind Dedicated offshore turbines are entering the market Newcomers may enter the market (Acciona, Gamesa, GE) 20
Cost of future offshore wind? from WPM etc. 21
Future 22
Up Scaling Wind turbines grown in size despite fundamental physics 2008 250 m Ø?? Jos Beurskens Repower Jos Beurskens 23
Substructures maybe up to a 100m? 24
The substructure options for offshore wts Past Future 25 Shallow water Deep water
EWEA s 20 year offshore network development plan Global cumulative wind power capacity 1990-2007 (MW) Source: EWEA 2009 26
The space needed 27
20MW wind turbine and Eiffel tower 300m 28
Major technology challenges Less expensive substructures Building very large wind turbines Reducing structural loads Increase efficiency Make upscaling possible Reducing significantly the operation and maintenance costs Understand the interaction between very large wind farms and the (wind) climate 29
Giant wind turbines and houses..? 300m 30
Words of conclusion The offshore wind power potential is large (enough) Cost of offshore wind energy will be larger than onshore substructure, grid and O&M are the sinners Apparently, selling prices on offshore wind energy are currently too low and await political action THANKS FOR YOUR ATTENTION 31