Title CO 2 emissions reduction from HGVs and freight, the UK perspective Julia King Vice Chancellor Aston University, Birmingham UK Member of the UK Committee on Climate Change Challenge Bibendum 20 th May 2011
Background The UK s approach to reducing CO 2 emissions is through 5 year, legislated Carbon Budgets The 4 th Budget, 2023 2027, has just been accepted by Government and is about to be recommended to Parliament for approval The first three Budgets (2008 2022): focus on emissions from cars and vans 4 th Budget (2023 2027): HGVs and freight start to make a significant contribution in scenario modelling and more is needed 2
The UK s 2050 target 670 MtCO 2 e International aviation & shipping* Agriculture non-co 2 Other non-co 2 & LUC Industry (heat and industrial processes) 76% cut (=80% vs. 1990) Residential & commercial heat Domestic transport 20% 159 MtCO 2 e Power generation * bunker fuels basis
90% reduction needed for surface transport 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050 At least 90% reduction likely to be required in surface transport sector more challenging sectors (international aviation and shipping, agricultural non-co 2, some areas of industry) unlikely to achieve 80% reduction 90% total reduction likely to be required across other sectors (transport, buildings and industry, power) Emissions reduction measures need to be consistent with 90% reduction in land transport by 2050 4
4 th Carbon Budget planning scenario 2030: a 46% reduction from today, leaving a 63% reduction to 2050 2050 allowed emissions 3.2% p.a. reduction 2008-2030 Scenario emissions to 2030 2 2-27% 4.7% p.a. reduction 2030-2050 2 2-65% 5
Context for transport scenarios Past and forecast emissions 140 120 100 Other MtCO2 80 60 Rail Bus HGV Van 40 Historic emissions BAU forecast Car 20 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 6
UK HGV emissions and distance travelled trends 1990 2008 HGV g/km fell 14%: 917 to 791g/km HGV km travelled increased by 15% Cars g/km fell 16%, km increased 20% 7
The first three budgets focussed on cars & vans DECC 2008, 2008 final UK greenhouse gas emissions: data tables 8
Context for transport scenarios Scenario to 2020 New car efficiency of 95 gco 2 /km including impact of electric vehicles Significant take up of electric cars (BEV and PHEV) with 16% of new car sales and 1.7 million cars on the road in 2020 New van efficiency of 135 gco 2 /km in 2020 (in line with now superseded EU target proposal!) Limited abatement in HGVs Biofuels to supply 8% of total liquid fuel consumption (by energy) Roll-out of Smarter Choices to all UK cities and towns Training 10% of car and van drivers and 100% of HGV drivers in ecodriving techniques Enforcing the existing 70 mph speed limit on motorways and dual carriageways 9
Transport scenarios to 2030 The Medium Abatement scenario 140 120 MtCO2 100 80 60 40 20 Cars: 49% reduction 67Mt Other Rail Bus HGV Van Car Reference Extended 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 10
HGV improvement: Ricardo report for DfT Review of Low Carbon technologies for Heavy Goods Vehicles prepared for the UK Department for Transport, March 2010 Ricardo plc A technology study to look at the options for CO 2 reduction effectiveness, limitations, safety, estimated costs to inform a regulatory and funding framework to reduce emissions from HGVs Medium Duty vehicle: 7.5t, urban use stop/start, 2-axle, rigid Heavy Duty vehicle: > 32.5t, motorway use, 3-axle, articulated Vehicles: aerodynamics, rolling resistance, driver behaviour, electric bodies Powertrain: engine efficiency, waste heat recovery, alternative powertrains and transmissions Fuels: biodiesel, biogas, hydrogen 11
Significant abatement required for HGVs % CO2 reduction 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% -14% -16% Source: Ricardo (2010), Technology Roadmap Study for Low Carbon HGVs 25,000 20,000 Cost ( ) 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 12
Marginal Abatement Cost Curve for HGVs /tco 2 1,200 1,000 800 Heat recovery (heat exchanger) Carbon price 2030-2042 600 400 200 0 Low rolling resistance tyres Aerodynamic trailers/bodies -200 Aerodynamic fairings Flywheel hybrid Single wide tyres Alternative fuelled bodies /tco2 Full hybrid CNG/CBG enginges Abatement cost curve for large articulated HGVs Electrical turbocompounding 13
Applicability of technologies: Automotive Council Technologies for light duty cycles only niche EVs commercial EVs Technologies which apply to medium and light duty cycles micro/mild hybrid full hybrid plug-in hybrid fuel cell APUs fuel cell vehicles CORE TECHNOLOGIES: apply to all duty cycles intelligent logistics; driver behaviour advanced highway aerodynamics; lightweighting; rolling resistance electric bodies and ancillary equipment powertrain efficiency improvements biofuels/sustainable liquid and gaseous fuels waste heat recovery advanced thermodynamic cycles ICE engine efficiency improvements Heavy Duty Cycles Medium Duty Cycles Light Duty Cycles UK Automotive Council Commercial and Off-Highway Vehicle Roadmap 2010 14
HGV technologies in the 2030 scenario Rigid HGVs Low rolling resistance tyres Stop start hybrid Articulated HGVs Low rolling resistance tyres Flywheel hybrid Aerodynamic trailer/body Aerodynamic fairings Single wide tyres Energy: 52% overcoming rolling resistance 35% aerodynamic drag Emissions reduction delivered from these technologies 17% for rigid HGVs 28% for articulated HGVs Additional contributions for HGVs 100% driver training in Eco Driving 11% biofuel by energy, 12% by volume Demand reduction: 6.5% HGV km 15
Hydrogen vehicle assumptions in 2030 Assumption that there is no widespread national hydrogen fuelling infrastructure in the 2030 scenario Opportunities for hydrogen limited to depot based fuelling model 50% new buses run on hydrogen by 2030 We consider this a worst/minimum case hydrogen scenario; ideally cost and technology breakthroughs will make hydrogen a stronger part of the mix by 2030, especially in vehicles where battery technology is unsuitable 16
Cautious biofuel assumptions in 2030 Holding position in advance of 2011 Bioenergy Review Previous advice consistent with Gallagher Review (2008): maximum of 8% by energy in 2020 31TWh in 2020 held constant to 2030 (11% of liquid fuel by energy in 2030) High scenario based on IEA BLUE Map global biofuel consumption: 61TWh (21% of liquid fuel by energy) in 2030 17
Reduction in freight demand Insufficient understanding of emissions reduction potential and cost Widespread agreement that km, fuel and CO 2 can be reduced Cautious 6.5% reduction by 2030 HGV km (bn) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 NTM reference 13% reduction 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 18
UK freight emissions by mode Alan McKinnon for Commission for Sustainable Transport UK 2009 19
Capacity utilisation and fuel efficiency Martinteket al 2006, report for IMO 20
Transport reductions in 2030 scenario Surface transport emissions reduced from 110Mt CO 2 to 67Mt in 2030: 44% Demand reduction: Smarter Choices, Speed Limiting, Eco-driving, modest reduction in freight demand Conventional vehicle efficiency: 80g cars, 120g vans Electric and PHEV cars and vans reach 60% of new vehicles Overall vehicle emissions: 52g/km new cars - 64% reduction, 81g/km fleet - 53% reduction Biofuels remain at Gallagher level of 31TWh, 12% of liquid fuel Hydrogen buses reach 50% of new vehicles 17-28% reduction in CO 2 emissions from HGVs Overall reductions 49% for cars 35% HGVs Total cost of abatement in 2030: 1890 million or 0.1% of GDP 21
Transport: 44% reduction by 2030 140 120 More needed...overall requirement of 46% reduction across the economy MtCO2 100 80 60 40 20 Cars: 49% reduction 67Mt Other Rail Bus HGV Van Car Reference Extended 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 22
Answers please... What else can should we include? What savings will it deliver? How much will it cost? What is it applicable to? 23
Challenges What will effective HGV fuel economy standards look like? Can regulations drive retrofitting? How to deal with complexity vehicle configuration, application, duty cycle, local terrain... Euro6 and NO x vs engine efficiency and CO 2 Demonstration: confirm emissions reduction and abatement costs Lifecycle analysis of technologies Can we drive improvement faster?... 24