Russia as a Competitor Farm Finances from 500 550 farms enrolled in N.D. Farm Business Management Program
100 North Dakota Temperature ( C) and Precipitation (mm) 40 80 30 60 20 mm 40 10 C 20 0 0 20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation Tmin Tmean Tmax 10 20
mm 610 533 457 381 305
160 Barnes County, North Dakota, Planted Hectares of Selected Crops 140 120 Hectares (1,000's) 100 80 60 Soybean Corn Wheat Sunfl all Barley 40 20 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
North Dakota 31,900 Farms 16,025,251 Hectares (crop and pasture land) USDA definition of a farm is any entity producing gross value of agricultural commodities greater than $1,000 Number and Size of Farms by Economic Class (gross sales), 2011 $1,000 $9,000 $10,000 $99,999 $100,000 $249,000 $250,000 $499,999 $500,000+ Farms 10,200 9,400 3,800 3,900 4,600 Hectares per Farm 65 258 575 913 1,566
$2,250 North Dakota Market Revenue, $USD per Hectare, by Crop Type $2,000 $1,750 $1,500 $1,250 $1,000 $750 Corn Pulse Crops Oilseeds Small Grains $500 $250 $0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
Reasons for Increase in Corn and Soybean Acres Weather Relative prices 1996 Farm Bill removed acreage restrictions Improved genetics for short season varieties Genetic modification (easier weed control also lowers labor and management requirements) Heavy rollers on soybean ground to pack rocks
North Dakota Livestock Livestock numbers are declining Beef cow calf is the main livestock enterprise In 2012, N.D. had 862,000 beef cows, ranked 13 th among U.S. states, but only 2.9% of U.S. total beef cow herd 1992 2007 Livestock No. of Farms. % Change Beef cow 13,216 9,667 27 Hogs 1,932 350 82 Dairy 1,925 402 79 Sheep 1,623 678 58 Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture
Russia as a Competitor
IKAR Dmitry Rylko The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies Russia: political framework for agricultural and crop production Voronezh, July 2013
IKAR Since early 2000 s situation started to change (very) rapidly 4folt devaluation of 1998/99: import substitution, export opportunities Emergence of agroholdings : institutional breakthrough Growing state support aggressive import restriction measures direct farm support escalation
IKAR Key 2013 2020 Program changes Partial abandoning of both long term and working capital interest rates subsidies Abandoning of direct subsidies on fertilizers and fuel Introduction of area payments Introduction of new federal programs and support lines on beef cattle, dairy, irrigation, green houses, textile flex seeds, technological modernization, etc. Bigger role of regions (they may initiate regional programs and ask for federal co finance)
Status and Perspectives of the Russian Corn Market Voronezh, July 1 th to 4 th 2013 Oleg Sukhanov, IKAR Yelto Zimmer, Thünen Institute
Russian corn, wheat, soybeans acreage (in 1,000 ha) Starting from a rather low level in 2000 corn & soybean acreage increase rather significantly.
Central Black Soil (CBS) Region: Corn, wheat, soybeans acreage (in 1,000 ha) 1. CBS region is the powerhous for corn and soybean production. Much stronger growth than on nationallevel. 2. Corn and soybean growth almost in parallel.
Central Black Soil Region: Evolution of crop yields (in t/ha) 1. In 2000 both crops yielded 2.5 t/ha. Nowadays corn has a yield advantage over wheat of app. 1t/ha. 2. If this trend continues only for 5 more years the gap will be more than 2t/ha.
Corn, wheat and sunflower exports (in 1,000 t) 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 20010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 Corn 55 1 300 400 55 2 000 1 900 2 900 Wheat 11 600 17 600 18 100 3 500 21 100 11 100 17 000 Soybeans 5 2 1 1 91 100 110 Soyoil 10 130 172 135 143 160 200 Record and close to record level Thus, significantly having increased production, Russia in times increased corn and sobeans export in recent years. And, nearly an every year we observe the next historical records of export.
Profitability of corn vs. wheat (USD/ha) agri benchmark farm RU20000BS 1. Given the yield advantage corn was much more profitable in 2011 and 2012. 2. Severe crop failure in 2010 resulted in much higher losses for corn than for wheat.
Conclusions (1) 1. Especially in Central Black Soil region acreage and yield growth of corn was particular high. 2. While wheat yields almost stagnated, corn yields went up by app. 7 % p.a. But variability of corn yields was higher as well. 3. In CBS yield advantage of corn over wheat is more than 1t/ha or 40 %. The highest price advantage of wheat over corn was 25 %. 4. Since 2007 compared to wheat Russian corn was much less affected from discounts on world markets. Very often Russian corn was traded at a premium of 50 to 100 USD/t over wheat world markets. 5. Since on world markets wheat normally is traded at a premium over corn. Therefore, for producers in Russia corn has a competitive edge over wheat.
Conclusions (2) 6. Areas under corn are growing very fast. agri benchmark data suggest that farm level profitability has been a key driver. 7. Key issues: high climate production risks (too dry during vegetation, too wet during harvest), infrastructure (drying capacities), lack of know how in proper production systems. 8. Ongoing growth in acreage is rather likely.
Practitioner s view on corn and soy in Russia Voronezh July 2 nd 2013 Aaron Baldwin CEO InAgrotech
Corn and Soy Production Principle regions of discussion is the CBS zone Voronezh, Lipetsk, Kursk, Orel, Belgorod, Tambov Corn has been grown in all regions since the late 1960 s Soy is a relative new comer and has been grown successfully since the late 90 s Most farms classify these crops as Technical crops. Need to be aware of the Agronomic risks associated with these crops Typical yields have been on average 3.5 5 Tonnes of DRY corn, and 1 1.2 tonnes of Soy per ha Typically no more than 15% of total cropped area is put to corn and less to beans Biggest challenge for corn in CBS is need to DRY. Hence the capital for Dryer is usually not figured into the COP. Early fall frosts can be very damaging for both crops Lack of sufficient moisture during flowering is also can cause problems Yields in similar regions of North America are 50% higher on average
Climate data Voronezh 1961 to 2012 Temperatur [ C] 30 C 25 C 20 C 15 C 10 C Niederschlag Rainfall langf Te 1961-1990 Te 1990-2008 - 2012 Te 2010 57 71 50 51 Niederschlag [mm] 80 70 60 50 5 C 38 43 39 42 41 39 42 40 0 C -5 C 33 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 30 20-10 C 10-15 C 0
North Dakota mm 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Temperature ( C) and Precipitation (mm) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Precipitation Tmean 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 C
North Dakota Typical Farm
Farming in North Dakota Mainly dry land farming / spring seeding Large equipment to minimize labor Most land is rented, many absentee landlords Quick reaction to profit and efficiency incentives switch crops adopt technology Crops provide about 80 percent of cash receipts Profitable crop farming 2007 2012 as revenue increases exceed those of costs which have doubled since 2003.