INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANIZATION E IMO SUB-COMMITTEE ON SAFETY OF NAVIGATION 54th session Agenda item 3 NAV 54/INF.5 4 April 2008 ENGLISH ONLY ROUTEING OF SHIPS, SHIP REPORTING AND RELATED MATTERS Information about planned new routeing measures in the southern part of the Baltic Sea Submitted by Germany and Poland Executive summary: Strategic direction: 5.2 High-level action: 5.2.4 Planned output: 5.2.4.1 Action to be taken: Paragraph 8 Related documents: SUMMARY This document presents information about new routeing measures in the southern part of the Baltic Sea being under consideration and evaluation by Germany and Poland, based on traffic, navigational and environmental conditions analysis NAV 51/3/6; NAV 52/INF.5; NAV 53/3/7; resolution A.572(14), as amended Introduction 1 At the fifty-first session of the NAV Sub-Committee, the Governments of Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Sweden submitted a joint proposal to approve the new traffic separation schemes Bornholmsgat and North of Rügen, the amendment to the traffic separation scheme South of Gedser, the recommended deep-water route Eastern Baltic Sea and the new areas to be avoided at Norra Midsjöbanken and Hoburgs Bank (NAV 51/3/6). In addition to the above, in paragraph 28 of the above submission the advanced plans of the Government of Poland were introduced, comprising additional new routeing measures in the southern Baltic Sea under consideration and evaluation. 2 At the fifty-second session of the NAV Sub-Committee, the Government of Poland submitted a detailed information paper which contained, inter alia, description of the area between the Bornholm Island and the Polish coast, statistical profile of ships transiting the waters of southern Baltic Sea, oceanographic and environmental considerations as well as preliminary planned new routeing measures in the southern part of the Baltic Sea (NAV 52/INF.5). For reasons of economy, this document is printed in a limited number. Delegates are kindly asked to bring their copies to meetings and not to request additional copies.
NAV 54/INF.5-2 - 3 At the fifty-third session of the NAV Sub-Committee, recalling above announcement the Government of Poland submitted, for consideration and approval by the Sub-Committee, the first set of measures concerning existing routeing system and ship reporting system in the Polish waters in the Gulf of Gdańsk (NAV 53/3/7). Submitted proposals were approved by the Maritime Safety Committee at its eighty-third session (COLREG.2/Circ.59, SN.1/Circ.263 and SN.1/Circ.264). Background 4 The south-western part of the Baltic Sea consists of the large shallow offshore banks between the Island of Bornholm and German and Polish coast (Ronne Bank, Adlergrund and Odrzana Bank with a minimum depth of 4.6 m). 12 Nm off the central Polish coast a complex of Słupska Bank exists with a minimum depth of 8.2 m. Additionally offshore waters between the central Polish coastline and Słupska Bank consist of irregular smaller shoals with scattered numerous wrecks and stones. The shipping traffic, in order to safely transit the areas concerned and to navigate clear off shallow banks, use in majority two convenient gateways: (a) (b) Between Adlergrund and Odrzana Bank; and Between the Słupska Bank and Polish coastline. Both the above areas are the places where traffic converges or spreads. When transiting, ships are changing courses in an unpredictable manner. There is no structured traffic scheme. The common incidence of head-on close encounters in a confined space of navigable waters could easily cause collisions and groundings. 5 On the open German and Polish coastline numerous nature reserves and land-sea protected areas are situated: Biosphere Reserve of Southeastern Rüegen Island and Jasmund National Park and respectively Słowiński National Park (UNESCO 186.18 km² MAB Biosphere Reserve) and Woliński National Park. Adlerground Bank, Odrzana Bank and Słupska Bank are also very important habitats for unique fauna and flora species. The shallow and shifting shoals in the southern part of the Baltic Sea present a great risk of grounding for deeper draught ships and consequently pollution. An accident with the bulk carrier Conrad Oldendorff which left Port of Gdańsk with a draught of 14.4 metres and grounded on June 28, 2006 on shallow banks south of Bornholm Island, clearly convinced co-sponsors of this document to consider introducing the risk-reducing routeing measures, taking into account potential consequences should similar accident happens with oil or other harmful substances spilled from the ship into the sea. Such an accident could have disastrous effects on the vulnerable nature of the whole Baltic Sea ecosystem. 6 In view of the above, Germany and Poland launched in 2007 a detailed assessment of the traffic situation and risks in the area south of Bornholm Island. In annex 1 a digest of the results of a study conducted by the Shipping Institute Warnemünde has been presented, in which the actual traffic flow in the southern part of the Baltic Sea was analysed on the basis of real AIS traffic data. The conflict potential for a period of five consecutive months was calculated, possible risk-reducing routeing measures evaluated and then the results were compared to the findings derived from a simulation assuming that the optimal routeing measures proposed had been implemented. The study confirmed the common incidence of head-on close encounters in a confined space of navigable waters which could easily cause collisions and groundings. Introduction of planned two traffic separation schemes: Adlergrund and Słupska Bank will eliminate the potential risk coming from ships meeting each other on reciprocal or nearly
- 3 - NAV 54/INF.5 reciprocal courses by streamlining the eastbound and westbound traffic as well as serve as an anti-grounding measure. Consequently, it will enhance the safety of navigation in the area as well as reduce threat to the marine environment. TSSs will be designed to match the existing traffic pattern as close as possible and it will not increase the distance to be traversed by ships. Summary 7 Germany and Poland duly inform that there are two new traffic separation schemes in the southern part of the Baltic Sea under consideration and evaluation, based on traffic, navigational and environmental conditions analysis. It is the intention to submit them to the fifty-fifth session of the Sub-Committee on Safety of Navigation in year 2009 as a joint proposal, subject to consultations with all Governments of Baltic States having interest in the area concerned and in particular with Denmark and Sweden, with a view to forwarding the agreed proposals to the Maritime Safety Committee for their adoption. Planned new routeing measures are presented in the chartlet in annex 2 and comprise: - a new traffic separation scheme Adlergrund, - a new traffic separation scheme Słupska Bank. Action requested of the Sub-Committee 8 The Sub-Committee is invited to take note of the information provided in this document. ***
NAV 54/INF.5 A STATISTICAL STUDY OF THE CURRENT AND THE PROSPECTIVE TRAFFIC SITUATION OF THE BALTIC SEA SOUTHERN OF BORNHOLM AND ALONG THE POLISH COAST This document presents a digest of the results of a statistical study undertaken by the Shipping Institute Warnemuende ( Schiffahrtsinstitut Warnemünde e.v. ), an affiliate of the Department of Maritime Studies of the Wismar University of Technology, Business and Design ( Bereich Seefahrt Hochschule Wismar Fachhochschule für Technik, Wirtschaft und Gestaltung ), Germany. The main purpose of the study was to identify the effects of two routeing measures considered for implementation close to the Słupska Bank respectively to the Roenne Bank of the Baltic Sea. Both the eastbound and westbound transit traffic in the area whole southern of Bornholm was analysed. The underlying traffic data were collected and made available for the study by the Maritime Office in Gdynia. The relevant data pool reflects the traffic flow over a period of 153 consecutive days in 2007. As a routine matter, the data provided were checked for consistency and plausibility, duly filtered, and then re-formatted and archived for further investigation. In a first step, the data material was used as a basis for making a statistical description of the current traffic flows, including a description of their distribution over time and of the numbers of vessels involved in different potential conflict scenarios. The data were processed using an evaluated software package simulating real transit traffic in a defined environment. At this stage, the framework conditions were so modified as to make allowance for the specific requirements applying to each traffic area under review. At a second stage, the current traffic flows were compared to the future traffic flows to be expected upon implementation of the proposed new routeing measures. All characteristic data were stored in external data pools to keep them available for further investigations. The minimum volume of data was determined by using empirical values in every pool necessary for making statistically meaningful statements (the total statistical base ). Such minimum volume depends on the time interval in which the real traffic data have been collected. The data pools were generated by repeating the same traffic situation scenarios. The starting conditions for each target was organized by random access. The times and records were changed in each scenario. The scenarios used in the analysis were defined as follows: Unregulated: This term stands for a traffic condition currently existent in reality (the present state ). Regulated: This term means a traffic condition as may be expected to exist upon the implementation of the routeing measures proposed by Germany and Poland, taking into account the recommendations given by the HELCOM Expert Working Group on Transit Routeing. Two different traffic situations may be identified in either traffic scenario as follows: : The overtaking process is defined as at least two targets moving in approximately the same direction at different speed.
NAV 54/INF.5 Page 2 : The encountering process is defined as at least two targets moving on more or less head-on courses towards each other at any given speed. The traffic situation in each traffic scenario is described by the number and the duration of detected conflicts in mean. The following results of statistical investigation were obtained both grouped by defined parameters in separate data pools and ungrouped for the whole study area as described above. The problem to be considered is as follows: The proposed routeing measures will separate the traffic flows according to the traffic direction while, at the same time, reducing the navigational space currently occupied by the traffic routes. That means that shipping traffic, separated by the direction of traffic flow, offers a minimized potential for conflict situations while, on the other hand, the reduced navigational space may increase the collision conflict potential, and the number of targets involved in any one conflict may also increase.
I Analysis of Traffic Influence by TSS Słupska Bank NAV 54/INF.5 Page 3 Statistical table of detected conflicts by situation and scenario Western TSS of Słupska Bank Eastern TSS of Słupska Bank Case Summaries Case Summaries Total Scene Unregulated Regulated Mean Std. Deviation Mean Std. Deviation 279,50 23,254 38,77 6,543 10,73 4,025 36,80 6,381 268,77 22,644 1,97 1,608 1,8904,09215 6,0218,63593 5,2196 1,04145 6,2542,58254 1,7513,04123 1,2611,71174 Total Scene Unregulated Regulated Mean Std. Deviation Mean Std. Deviation 480,30 23,714 122,53 11,413 34,57 6,887 119,37 11,254 445,73 22,496 3,17 1,683 2,5355,09506 7,5302,37275 8,0478,80528 7,6885,33745 2,1088,02891 1,4553,37508 Bars of the number of detected conflicts in mean by scene Western TSS of Słupska Bank Eastern TSS of Słupska Bank Bars of the duration of detected conflicts in mean by scene Western TSS of Słupska Bank Eastern TSS of Słupska Bank
NAV 54/INF.5 Page 4 Summary Both the right and the left figures above have the same trend in number and duration of identified conflicts about the influence of the considered traffic regulation measurement. The unregulated traffic flow is reduced rapidly in the huge number of encountering situations due to the regulation of vessel traffic. In opposite the number of overtaking situations seems increased by the traffic regulation. A graphical difference between the duration of the conflict situations separated by scenario is not evident. Statistical differences in the number of detected conflicts and conflict duration by scene Test method used: Mann-Whitney Test (non-parametric test) Western TSS of Słupska Bank Eastern TSS of Słupska Bank Ranks Ranks Total Scene Unregulated Regulated Mean Rank Sum of Ranks Mean Rank Sum of Ranks 45,50 1365,00 15,50 465,00 15,50 465,00 45,50 1365,00 45,50 1365,00 15,50 465,00 15,50 465,00 45,50 1365,00 21,25 637,50 39,75 1192,50 38,50 1155,00 22,50 675,00 Total Unregulated Scene Regulated Mean Rank Sum of Ranks Mean Rank Sum of Ranks 45,50 1365,00 15,50 465,00 15,50 465,00 45,50 1365,00 45,50 1365,00 15,50 465,00 15,50 465,00 45,50 1365,00 35,23 1057,00 25,77 773,00 43,50 1305,00 17,50 525,00 Test Statistics a Test Statistics a Total Mann-Whitney U Wilcoxon W Z Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed),000 465,000-6,656,000,000 465,000-6,659,000,000 465,000-6,701,000,000 465,000-6,653,000 a. Grouping Variable: Scene 172,500 637,500-4,103,000 210,000 675,000-3,557,000 Total Mann-Whitney U Wilcoxon W Z Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed),000 465,000-6,656,000,000 465,000-6,656,000,000 465,000-6,673,000,000 465,000-6,653,000 a. Grouping Variable: Scene 308,000 773,000-2,099,036 60,000 525,000-5,779,000 Summary Note: The significant level for the 2-tailed asymptotic significance has been set at 5 per cent (p < 0.05). All computed results comparing the unregulated situation in open waters to the regulated situation by T.S.S. borders are significant outcomes. The total number of all conflicts in a regulated traffic flow is extremely decreasing and the total duration of all conflicts is increasing. There is a changing in the number of causing of the conflict. There are much more identified encountering situations between vessels due to the mixed course direction in the unregulated traffic scenarios. Converse caused by the decreased navigational space in the regulated traffic flow a small increasing of overtaking situations is observed.
II Analysis of the Traffic Influence by TSS Adlergrund NAV 54/INF.5 Page 5 Statistical table of detected conflicts by situation and scenario Case Summaries Total Scene Unregulated Regulated Mean Std. Deviation Mean Std. Deviation 480,30 23,714 122,53 11,413 34,57 6,887 119,37 11,254 445,73 22,496 3,17 1,683 2,5355,09506 7,5302,37275 8,0478,80528 7,6885,33745 2,1088,02891 1,4553,37508 Bars of the number of detected conflicts in mean by scene Bars of the duration of detected conflicts in mean by scene
NAV 54/INF.5 Page 6 Summary The unregulated traffic flow is reduced rapidly in the huge number of encountering situations due to the regulation of vessel traffic. In opposite the number of overtaking situations seems increased by the traffic regulation. Inconsequence the total number of detected conflicts is lower in the regulated traffic flow in comparison to the unregulated traffic situation. A graphical difference between the duration of the conflict situations separated by scene is not evident in overtaking and encountering situations of vessel approach. Statistical differences in the number of detected conflicts and conflict duration by scene Test method used: Mann-Whitney Test (non-parametric test) Ranks Scene Unregulated Regulated Mean Rank Sum of Ranks Mean Rank Sum of Ranks 45,50 1365,00 15,50 465,00 15,50 465,00 45,50 1365,00 45,50 1365,00 15,50 465,00 Total 15,50 465,00 45,50 1365,00 35,23 1057,00 25,77 773,00 43,50 1305,00 17,50 525,00 Test Statistics a Mann-Whitney UWilcoxon W Z Asymp. Sig. (2-tailed),000 465,000-6,656,000,000 465,000-6,656,000,000 465,000-6,673,000 Total,000 465,000-6,653,000 308,000 773,000-2,099,036 60,000 525,000-5,779,000 a. Grouping Variable: Scene Summary Note: The significant level for the 2-tailed asymptotic significance has been set at 5 per cent (p < 0.05). All computed results comparing the unregulated situation to the regulated situation are significant outcomes. The total number of all conflicts in a regulated traffic flow is extremely decreasing and the total duration of all conflicts is increasing. There is a changing in the number of causing of the conflict. In the unregulated traffic scenarios there are much more identified encountering situations between vessels due to the mixed course direction. Converse caused by the decreased manoeuvring space in the regulated traffic flow a increasing of overtaking situations is observed. The duration of the approaching conflicts in both situations is in the regulated traffic scenario less than in the unregulated traffic scenario.
Executive Summary NAV 54/INF.5 Page 7 Further to the above Summaries (at the bottom of page 5 and page 7), the tables on the preceding page go to show that, with no breakdown into the two pre-defined conflict situations being made, the total number of detected conflicts is significantly higher in scenario unregulated than in scenario regulated. As before, the significant level has been set at 5 per cent (p < 0.05). The overall result means that a marked improvement of the conflict characteristics (meaning, in plain words, a reduction in the collision conflict potential) will prevail upon the implementation of the proposed routeing measures. Conclusions As a result of the basic study described in the present document, the following is quite evident: The implementation of the proposed routeing measures will provide a demonstrable decrease in the traffic characteristics that are of relevance to potential collision conflicts. The current conflict potential may be enormously reduced by the separation of traffic through the implementation of a traffic separation scheme system with separate traffic lanes according to the direction of traffic flow. Such conflict potential reduction is particularly evident as regards encountering situations. The statistical data outlined in the present document go to prove this point most impressively. ***
ANNEX 2 NAV 54/INF.5