The Burning Question 12,000 10,000 Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) What would it take to 8,000 leave fuel worth trillions in the ground and is 6,000 humanity up to it? 4,000 2,000 0 1850 1900 1950 2000
About me! Author Journalist (Guardian/Kiln) UCL
The book and the talk 1 Where are we at with! climate change?! 2 What solutions do and don t work?! 3 What are the barriers to action?! 4 What should we do?
How are we doing solving climate change?
Exponential curve
Total CO2 emissions since 1850 Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1850 1900 1950 2000
Total CO2 emissions since 1850 Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1850 1900 1950 2000
Total CO2 emissions since 2000 Global CO2 emissions (million tonnes carbon) 12,000 10,000 8,000 2000 2005 2010
What if we stay on that curve?
4 degrees Celsius
= temperature increase since the Last Glacial Maximum
So instead we re aiming for 2 degrees Celsius
which is better but not safe TAR (2001) Reasons For Concern Updated Reasons For Concern Risks to Many Risks to Some Large Increase Increase Negative for Most Regions Negative for Some Regions; Positive for Others Net Negative in All Metrics Positive or Negative Market Impacts; Majority of People Adversely Affected Higher Very Low 5 4 3 2 1 0 Risks to Many Risks to Some Large Increase Increase Negative for Most Regions Negative for Some Regions; Positive for Others Net Negative in All Metrics Positive or Negative Market Impacts; Majority of People Adversely Affected High Low 5 4 3 2 1 0 Future Increase in Global Mean Temperature above circa 1990 ( C) Past Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Risk of Extreme Weather Events Distribution of Impacts Aggregate Impacts -0.6 Risks of Large Scale Discontinuities Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems Risk of Extreme Weather Events Distribution of Impacts Aggregate Impacts -0.6 Risks of Large Scale Discontinuities
The remaining budget Emissions so far 2000 billion tonnes of CO2 Future emissions 1600 billion tonnes of CO2 700 billion tonnes of CO2 Double coin-flip scenario (75% chance of success) Coin-flip scenario (50% chance of success)
Total CO2 emissions since 1850
The remaining budget Billion tonnes of CO2 10000 40 0 0 1850 Today 2100
The remaining budget Billion tonnes of CO2 45 10000 00 1850 Today 2100
Might we run out of fuel? 3000 Coal 2500 Gas Billion tonnes of CO2 2000 1500 1000 500 Coal 2000 Gas 430 Oil 630 0 Proven reserves Coin-flip 1600 Double coin-flip 700 Remaining carbon budgets Oil
Might we run out of fuel? 50000 4000 (Coal) 3500 Billion tonnes of CO2 40000 30000 20000 Coal 3000 2500 2000 1500 Gas 10000 1000 Oil 500 0 Gas Oil Fuel resources Coin-flip budget Double coin-flip 0 Oil & gas resources Coin-flip budget Double coin-flip
Are the global talks on track? Global greenhouse gas emissions (gigatonnes CO2e) 80 60 40 20 Business as usual Current pledges Needed for 2ºC 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
What solutions do and don t work?
What drives the curve? 6 CO2 5 Indexed 4 GDP/Person 3 Population 2 1 0 1950 CO2 /Energy Energy / GDP 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
8000 2.5 7000 Population 6000 2.0 5000 4000 3000 1.5 2000 Annual % increase 1000 0 1950 Annual % change Global population (millions) Population 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1.0 2010
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 6 5 4 Affluence 3 2 1 0 Annual change -1-2 -3 1990 2000 2010 Annual % change Average affluence (GDP/head) Affluence (economic growth)
Energy intensity (efficiency) 3 2 400 Energy intensity 1 0 300-1 200-2 -3 100 0 1950 Annual % change Energy intensity (Tonnes oil equivalent /GDP) 500 Annual change 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000-4 -5 2010
Rebounds and ripples Get a more efficient car Bigger economy, more investment in efficiency Rebound type 1 Drive more and/or Save money More demand for roads; suburbia more Rebound viable; bigger type 4 houses, etc. Invested via bank or fund Spend it on other things Use less fuel and Lower global oil price More oil use elsewhere Rebound type 3 Rebound type 2 Carbon footprint Economic activity
1.0 0.8 Carbon intensity 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1950 Annual change 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0-1 -2-3 -4-5 -6 2010 Annual % change Carbon intensity (tonnes carbon / tonne oil equivalent) Carbon intensity (clean energy)
New energy capacity 2000 2011 2500 Million tonnes of oil equivalent Oil 2000 1500 Natural gas 1000 500 0 Coal Fossil fuels Renewables
An age-old feedback 600 WWW 550 Internet Global energy use in exajoules 500 Microchip 450 400 Nuclear energy 350 Gas 300 Television 250 200 150 100 50 0 Solar & wind Nuclear Hydro Steam engine Electric motor Gasoline engine Vacuum tube Commercial aviation Oil Coal Biomass 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 20002008
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Who s responsible for fossil fuel use? End consumers? Industry? Fossil fuel sector?
Who s responsible for fossil fuel use? Fuel industry Infrastructure Lifestyles We can t minimise the consumption of fossil fuel while also maximising supply!
! 6000 US carbon emission are falling. But its carbon extraction is still rising 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1950 Oil Coal Gas 2010
What are the barriers to action?
1. Value of reserves and infrastructure! 2. Prioritization of economic growth above ecological health! 3. Psychological and social barriers! 4. How to sharing the remaining pie?
Value of reserves and infrastructure $10 100 trillion
Value of reserves and infrastructure $764 billion each year on developing NEW reserves!
Potential CO2 in proven reserves (billion tonnes) Value of reserves and infrastructure 2500 Coal Gas 2000 Oil 1500 1000 500 0 EU, Africa & AoSIS EU, Africa, AoSIS Rest of world & Cartagena
Economic growth can it be done? 38 Existing and planned policies CO2 emissions (gigatonnes) 36 34 Efficiency, 44% 32 30 28 Renewables, 21% 26 Biofuels, 4% Nuclear, 9% 24 50% chance of 2 C 22 20 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 CCS, 22% 2035
David Cameron s effort to introduce alternative metrics!! Every department a growth department Calls on OPEC to increase oil output for growth!! New place for Heathrow for growth Commissions report on increasing oil and gas extraction for growth!!
Social and psychological barriers to action Optimism bias Now bias Confirmation bias Social inertia bias
Sharing the pie Lots of options National pledges Global cap and trade Global carbon tax SAFE Carbon! but none is a silver bullet for burden sharing. We need to find ways to encourage others to participate such as trade.
What should we do?
What should we do? Waking up! Capping the carbon Pushing the right technologies hard Sorting out food, land and smoke Prepare a plan B Leadership
!!! Is a tipping point coming?! 1.1% increase in reported fossil fuel carbon emissions in 2012