Railroads and Association of American Railroads July 2016 Summary No single commodity is more important to America s railroads than coal, which accounted for 36.9 percent of rail tonnage and 17.2 percent of rail revenue in 2015. Most coal in the United States is consumed at power plants. Historically, coal has dominated U.S. electricity generation because it is such a cost-effective fuel choice, and freight railroads are a big reason for that. Approximately 70 percent of the coal delivered to coal-fueled power plants is delivered by rail. Electricity is also generated using other fuels, including nuclear power, wind, solar power, hydroelectric power, and natural gas. Recently, U.S. natural gas production has surged due to fracking, resulting in lower natural gas prices to electricity generators and increasing the competitiveness of electricity generated from natural gas vis-à-vis electricity generated from coal. In addition, increasingly stringent environmental regulations have targeted coal-fueled electricity generation. Consequently, electricity generated from coal and associated rail coal volumes have fallen sharply from where they once were. Overview of is formed over millions of years through pressure and temperature by the slow underground decomposition and chemical conversion of plant matter in what at one time were enormous swamps. Over time, the plant matter is transformed into peat, then lignite, then subbituminous coal, then bituminous coal, and finally anthracite. has value primarily because it yields a lot of energy when it s burned. It can be steam coal (used in power plants) or metallurgical coal (used to make coke for steelmaking). Energy content is measured in British Thermal Units (BTUs). On average, one ton of coal yields 20 to 21 million BTUs, but energy content varies considerably by type of coal. For example, the average heating value of bituminous coal is around 24 million BTUs per ton; for subbituminous, 18 million; for lignite, 13 million; and for anthracite, 23 million. quality also varies based on the level of impurities found in the coal. U.S. Production According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. coal production was 895.9 million tons in 2015. That s down 10.4 percent from 2014 s 1.00 billion tons, down 24 percent from the all-time high of 1.17 billion tons set in 2008, and the lowest annual total since 1986. Wyoming accounted for 42 percent of U.S. coal production in 2015, followed by West Virginia (11 percent) and Kentucky (7 percent). Eight of the nation s top ten highest-producing mines are in Wyoming.
Major U.S. Producing Regions Powder River Basin Uinta Basin Interior Region Northern App. Central App. Appalachian Region Southern App. Gulf Region Most U.S. coal production takes place in three major coal-producing areas: Appalachian coal is mined in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, Tennessee, Alabama, Ohio, and eastern Kentucky. It is often further broken down into Southern, Central, and Northern Appalachia. Interior coal is mined in Illinois, Indiana, Missouri, Texas, and western Kentucky. Western coal is mined in Wyoming, Montana, Utah, Colorado, North Dakota, New Mexico, and Arizona. Most Western coal originates in the Powder River Basin (PRB) of northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana. PRB coal has low sulfur content. Over the past two decades its consumption has surged due to increasingly stringent clean air laws. U.S. Production by State: 2006-2015 U.S. Consumption and Production (millions of tons) (millions of tons) 500 1,200 450 WY coal production in 2015 was down 20% from its peak in 2008. In 2015, WY accounted for 4 of U.S. coal production. 400 350 1,150 Production 1, 1,050 300 1,000 WV coal production in 2015 was down 39% from its most recent peak in 2008; KY production in 2015 was down 49% from 2008. 250 200 950 900 IL is one of the few states whose coal production has been trending higher in recent years. 150 850 800 50 750 0 Consumption 700 WY WV KY IL PA MT TX IN ND NM '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 U.S. Consumption U.S. coal consumption in 2015 was 801.6 million tons, down 12.7 percent from 2014 s 917.7 million tons and 28.9 percent lower than the 2007 peak of 1.13 billion tons. In 2015, 92.3 percent of coal consumption was for electricity generation; 2.4 percent was to produce coke; and 5.3 percent was for other purposes, including combined heat and power plants.
Because power plants account for so much of U.S. coal consumption, the electricity marketplace is key to coal s fortunes. Historically, U.S. electricity production rose steadily: from 1949 to 2007, total year-over-year U.S. electricity generation fell just twice: in 1982 (-2.3 percent) and in 2001 (-1.7 percent). However, since 2007, U.S. electricity generation has trended slightly downward. 4.2 Total U.S. Electricity Generation: 1991-2015 (billion megawatthours) 1.5 Electricity Sales by End Use Sector: 2006-2015 (billion megatthours) 4.0 1.4 3.8 1.3 3.6 3.4 1.2 1.1 1.0 3.2 0.9 3.0 0.8 2.8 '91 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 0.7 Residential Commercial Industrial Excludes small amounts used for transportation. A huge amount of electricity is needed for day-to-day purposes, but on the margin electricity demand is largely a function of weather and the economy. For example, in 2008 and 2009, lower total electricity generation was in large part a function of the severe recession; a big increase in electricity generation in 2010 was in part due to stronger industrial demand and in part due to a hotter than usual summer, which meant more demand for electricity for air conditioning. The relatively small increases since 2013 have been a function of, among other things, continued slow economic growth, improvements in fuel efficiency, and less weather-related demand. In the United States, the main fuel sources for generating electricity are (in order) coal, natural gas, nuclear power, renewables such as wind and solar, and hydroelectric power. If market shares stayed constant, coal-based generation would rise or fall with total electricity generation. Market shares don t stay constant, though, and both the absolute amount of electricity generated from coal and coal s share of the total has been trending down the past few years. U.S. Electricity Generation by Type of Fuel: 2006-2015 (million megawatthours) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables Other Than Hydro Hydro Other 5 4 4 40% 36% 3 2 2 20% 16% 1 0% U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel: 2006-2015 (% of total generation) Natural Gas Nuclear % Share U.S. Electricity Generation Fuel 2000 2005 2010 2015 5 50% 45% 3 Natural Gas 16% 19% 2 3 Nuclear 20% 19% 20% 20% Renewables 7% Hydro 7% 7% 6% 6% Other 1% 1% Renewables Other Than Hydro Hydro Other
The chart on the bottom left of the previous page shows the absolute amount of electricity generated by various fuels; the chart on the bottom right of the previous page shows the percentage of total generation accounted for by each fuel. In the 1990s, coal s share of electricity generation averaged 56 percent. In 2000, it was 52 percent, but by 2012 it had fallen to 37 percent, by far its lowest share since sometime prior to when EIA data begin in 1949. s share was 39 percent in 2013 and 2014, but then it plunged to 33 percent in 2015. Meanwhile, the natural gas share rose from 16 percent in 2000 to 30 percent in 2012 and 33 percent in 2015. The share accounted for by renewables (mainly solar and wind but excluding hydroelectric) rose from 2 percent in 2000 to 7 percent in 2015. Different fuels dominate electricity generation in different states. For example, Indiana was the 15th largest electricity generator in 2015; coal accounted for 75 percent of its generation. California was the 4th largest electricity generator, but coal accounted for virtually none of its generation. Electricity generators in California, the Pacific Northwest, and New England use relatively little coal; generators in the Midwest, Southeast, and Southwest burn much more. The decline in coal s share of electricity generation has accelerated in the past couple of years (see the charts below). Meanwhile, the natural gas share has been trending sharply upward. The renewable share has been rising too, though from a low base. 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 90 80 70 60 U.S. Electricity Generation From (million megawatthours) 12-month moving average 50% 4 46% 4 4 40% 3 36% 3 3 30% 2 26% 2 2 as a % of Total U.S. Electricity Generation 12-month moving average 150 140 130 120 110 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 U.S. Electricity Generation From Natural Gas (million megawatthours) 12-month moving avg. Natural Gas as a % of Total U.S. Electricity Generation 36% 3 3 30% 2 26% 2 2 20% 1 16% 12-month moving average
32 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 U.S. Electricity Generation From Renewables* (million megawatthours) 12-month moving average *Excludes hydroelectric. Renewables as % of Total U.S. Electricity Generation* 11% 10% 9% 7% 6% 5% 1% 0% 12-month moving average *Excludes hydroelectric. As noted earlier, there has been significant displacement of coal-fueled electricity with electricity generated from other sources. Natural gas and, even more so, renewables like wind and solar are seen by many as more environmentally benign than coal, and that s certainly played a key role (and could play an even bigger role in the future), but in recent years economic issues have probably been even more important. Natural gas is much cheaper for electricity producers than it was just a few years ago thanks to sharply higher natural gas production brought about by technological advances in natural gas extraction, especially hydraulic fracturing or fracking. $8 $7 $6 $5 $4 Average Delivered Price of Fuel for the U.S. Electric Power Industry (dollars per million Btu) Natural gas 34 32 30 28 26 U.S. Natural Gas Production: 2000-2015 (trillion cubic feet) $3 24 $2 22 $1 20 $0 18 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 There is still an enormous amount of uncertainty regarding the future of the natural gas market. Some say very low natural gas prices are here to stay; others say they are bound to rise, possibly by a great deal, especially if natural gas exports become widespread. The more natural gas prices rise, everything else equal, the less competitive natural gas-based electricity generation will be compared with coal-based electricity generation. Some say fracking is perfectly safe, and they have the support of key policymakers who think it s a godsend for the economy. Others say fracking is an environmental catastrophe waiting to happen and want to ban it. Time will tell who s right and who s wrong, but there s no question that coal and railroads that haul coal will be greatly affected by what happens. will almost certainly have a major long-term place in America s energy supply, but how big that piece will end up being, and for how long, has been unclear for years and will likely remain unclear well into the future.
Transportation U.S. coal production is focused in a relatively small number of states, but coal is consumed in large amounts all over the country. This is possible because the United States has the world s most efficient and comprehensive coal transportation system, led by railroads. All major surface transportation modes carry large amounts of coal. According to the EIA, 69 percent of U.S. coal shipments were delivered to their final destinations by rail in 2014, followed by water (13 percent, mainly barges on inland waterways); truck (11 percent); and conveyor belts and tramways (7 percent, mainly at minemouth plants). The modal shares have not changed appreciably over the past eight or nine years. Consumption Production U.S. Production vs. Consumption in 2015 % of U.S. Shipments to Final U.S. Destinations by Mode of Transportation: 2005-2014 80% 70% 60% Railroad Traffic is the most important single commodity carried by U.S. freight railroads. In 2015, it accounted for 36.9 percent of tonnage, 18.5 percent of carloads, and 17.2 percent of gross revenue for U.S. Class I railroads. is also an important commodity for many non- Class I railroads. As noted above, coal s share of U.S. electricity generation has fallen sharply in recent years. Rail coal traffic has suffered accordingly. In 2008, the peak year for U.S. rail coal traffic, Class I railroads originated 7.71 million carloads of coal. In 2015, they originated 5.44 million carloads, down 29.4 percent from 2008 s peak. Put another way, Class I railroads originated 2.3 million fewer carloads of coal in 2015 than in 2008. If you assume, for simplicity, 115 carloads per coal train, that s nearly 20,000 fewer trainloads of coal in 2015 than in 2008. Carloads of coal were down 10.9 percent in 2015 from 2014 s 6.11 million carloads. Class I railroads originated 638.1 million tons of coal in 2015, down 27.4 percent from 2008 s peak of 878.6 million tons. The decline in rail coal tonnage in 2015 from 2008 was 240.5 million tons. tonnage in 2015 was down 10.5 percent over 2014 s 713.2 million tons. Railroads have typically derived more revenue from coal than from any other single commodity, though the broad intermodal category accounted for more revenue than coal from 2003 to 2007 and again from 2013 to 2015. Class I railroad gross revenue from coal was $12.1 billion in 2015, down from a peak of $16.4 billion in 2011. 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Railroad Water Truck Other* Note: data exclude a small "unknown" component. *Tramway, conveyor, slurry pipeline. Source: EIA
Originated Carloads by Class I RRs by Commodity: 2015 Total = 29,441,414 Waste & scrap 539,514 Food 1,587,340 5% Petr. & coal prod. 657,303 Crude oil 410,249 1% All others 4,910,385 17% 5,441,934 1 Misc. mixed shipments* 8,142,327 2 Grain 1,443,841 5% *Mostly intermodal. Some intermodal is also interspersed in other commodities. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics Lumber & wood 324,930 1% Pulp & paper 727,815 Chemicals 2,206,816 Primary metal products 525,363 Motor veh. 1,250,046 Crushed stone, sand, gravel 1,273,551 Originated Tons by Class I RRs by Commodity: 2015 Total = 1.73 billion Food 101.0 6% 638.1 37% Grain 139.4 All others 163.9 9% (millions) Lumber & wood 27.2 Pulp & paper 32.7 Chemicals 178.0 10% Waste & scrap 36.7 *Mostly intermodal. Some intermodal is also interspersed in other commodities. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics Primary metal products 44.6 Crushed stone, sand, gravel 134.9 Motor veh. 23.0 1% Misc. mixed shipments* 120.0 Crude oil 7% 40.5 Petr. & coal prod. 51.5 U.S. Class I RR Gross Revenue by Commodity: 2015 ($ billions) Total = $70.7 billion Waste & scrap $1.2 Petr. & coal prod. $2.7 Crude oil $2.2 Food $5.7 All others $7.4 10% $12.1 17% Misc. mixed shipments* $9.2 1 Grain $5.3 Motor veh. $5.5 Lumber & wood $1.9 Chemicals $10.0 1 *Mostly intermodal. Some intermodal is also interspersed in other commodities. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics Pulp & paper $2.3 Primary metal products $2.3 Crushed stone, sand, gravel $2.9 Originated Carloads of by U.S. Class I Railroads (millions) 8.00 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50 6.25 6.00 5.75 5.50 5.25 5.00 '90 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Data are for Class I railroads. Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics 900 850 800 750 700 650 600 550 500 450 400 Originated Tons of by U.S. Class I Railroads (millions) '90 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics $18 $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 U.S. Class I Railroad Gross Revenue From ($ billions) '90 '93 '95 '97 '99 '01 '03 '05 '07 '09 '11 '13 '15 Source: AAR Freight Commodity Statistics The charts on the top of the next page show that coal volumes for U.S. railroads for the first half of 2016 are down sharply from the same period in 2015, an indication that the pressures on coal remain as strong as ever.
150,000 140,000 130,000 120,000 110,000,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 Average Weekly U.S. Rail Carloads of : Jan. 2009 - June 2016 2009 Data are average weekly originations for each month, are not seasonally adjusted, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators % Change in U.S. Rail Carloads of From Same Month Previous Year: Jan. 2009 - June 2016 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% -30% -35% -40% 2009 Data are based on originations, are not seasonally adjusted, do not include intermodal, and do not include the U.S. operations of CN and CP. Source: AAR Rail Time Indicators Thanks to huge productivity gains including the use of lighter weight aluminum freight cars railroads have dramatically increased their coal-carrying efficiency. In 2015, the average coal car carried 117.2 tons, up 19 percent from the 98.2 tons in 1990. Nearly all coal transported by rail moves in highly productive unit trains, which operate around the clock, use dedicated equipment, and generally follow direct shipping routes. Due in part to the high consumption of low-sulfur Western coal by utilities throughout the country, the average length of haul for rail coal movements has trended upward over the years, reaching 867 miles in 2014 an all-time high. Rail coal movements exceeding 1,500 miles are not uncommon. dominates rail traffic in major coal producing states. In Kentucky, West Virginia and Wyoming, for example, coal accounted for 81 percent, 92 percent, and 95 percent, respectively, of total originated rail tonnage in 2014. Due to its widespread use in generating electricity, coal also accounts for a major share of terminated rail tons for many states. For example, in 2014 coal accounted for 43 percent of rail tons terminated in North Carolina, 58 percent in Wisconsin, and 30 percent in Georgia. Rail Rates for Since it incorporates both distance and weight, revenue per ton-mile (RPTM) is a useful surrogate for rail rates. In 2014, average RPTM for coal was 2.75 cents, by far the lowest such figure among major commodities carried by railroads. Average RPTM in 2014 for all commodities other than coal was 6.28 cents, well over double the comparable coal figure. Adjusted for inflation, coal RPTM was 47 percent lower in 2014 than in 1981. This means a typical coal shipper can ship Average Railroad Rates* vs. Electricity Rates** (1981 = ) 30 '81 '84 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 close to twice as much coal today for about what he paid more than 30 years ago. Over this period, the average decline in rail coal rates is much greater than the average decline in the price of electricity (see the chart at right). 110 90 80 70 60 50 40 RR Rates - Down 47%* Electricity Rates - Down 15%** *Average rail revenue per ton-mile for coal, adjusted for inflation. **Average revenue per kwh, all sectors, adjusted for inflation. Sources: EIA, AAR
In recent years, average rail rates for coal have increased. Generally speaking, railroads, like other competitive industries in the United States, set their prices based on the value they provide to their customers, not on their input costs. This market-based approach to pricing allows railroads to balance the desire of each customer to pay the lowest possible rate with the requirement that railroads be able to attract capital and pay for all the things needed to keep their networks functioning now and growing in the future. That said, since 1990, average rail coal rates have risen far less rapidly than the costs of inputs to rail operations. The chart at right compares average rail rates for coal (measured by revenue per ton-mile) and the Rail Cost Adjustment Factor (RCAF). The RCAF measures rail inflation in much the same way that the consumer price index measures inflation in the overall economy. The RCAF is prepared by the Association of American Railroads under the direction of the Surface Transportation Board and is subject to independent outside audit every two years. Another way to look at rail coal rates is in the context of electricity sales. According to data from the Energy Information Administration, total U.S. electricity retail sales in 2015 were $388.1 billion. Class I rail gross revenue from hauling coal in 2015 was $12.1 billion, equal to just 3.1 percent of the value of electricity sales. U.S. Foreign Trade Competition in the global marketplace for coal sales is intense. U.S. coal exports were 74.0 million tons in 2015, down from 97.3 million tons in 2014 and well off the peak of 125.7 million tons in 2012. A large portion of U.S. coal exports travels by rail. In 2015, the top recipients of U.S. coal exports were the Netherlands, India, Brazil, and South Korea. Over the past ten years, metallurgical coal has accounted for 60 percent of U.S. coal exports, and steam coal for 40 percent. 220 200 180 160 140 120 80 60 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 140 130 120 110 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Average Rail Revenue Per Ton-Mile For vs. the Rail Cost Adjustment Factor* (1990 = ) Rail Cost Adjustment Factor* Revenue Per Ton-Mile for *The Rail Cost Adjustment Factor is a forecast of rail input prices prepared at the direction of the STB and subject to outside audit every two years. Source: AAR, STB U.S. Exports and Imports (millions of tons) Exports 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 U.S. coal producers are hopeful that coal exports will grow in the future, with Asia especially China and India seen as key potential markets. Today, coal consumption in China is close to coal consumption in the rest of the world combined. In 2015, U.S. coal exports to China were just 0.2 million tons, a miniscule fraction of China s coal consumption. Imports
Environmental Challenges Over the years, the affordability of coal-based electricity has been a major factor behind America s economic growth and global competitiveness. In the years ahead, coal will continue to be needed to meet America s electricity demands. That said, coal and coal-fueled electricity generation face serious environmental challenges, including challenges related to emissions (greenhouse gases, mercury, particulates, etc.), coal ash disposal, effluents, and other issues. For example, the main point of the EPA s Clean Power Plan, is to drastically reduce coal-fired electricity generation. In addition to reasonable EPA regulations, railroads support the development of advanced carbon capture and storage and other clean coal technologies. By developing these technologies, America would continue to produce affordable electricity from its abundant domestic coal, energy independence would be promoted, and the environment would be protected a win-win-win situation for all parties involved. Continued Spending Back Into the Rail Network In the future, transportation demand will grow and new rail capacity will be needed. Recent forecasts from the Federal Highway Administration found that total U.S. freight shipments will rise from an estimated 18.1 billion tons in 2015 to 25.3 billion tons in 2045 a 40 percent increase. Freight railroads are preparing for this future demand today. Unlike trucks, barges, and airlines, which travel mainly on infrastructure that the government provides and pays for, America s privately owned freight railroads operate almost exclusively on infrastructure that they own, build, maintain, and pay for themselves. In recent years, America s freight railroads have been putting more money back into their networks than ever before. From 1980 through 2015, they spent more than $600 billion their own funds, not taxpayer funds on renewal, maintenance, and expansion of their infrastructure and equipment. That s more than 40 cents out of every rail revenue dollar. In the years to come, railroads will be asked to continue to grow capacity for current and potential future customers. Additional spending on capacity can only be made if rail earnings are robust enough to attract the capital needed to pay for it. Conclusion How rail coal traffic behaves in the months and years ahead will depend on the same factors that have affected coal recently, including the competitiveness of fuels other than coal for electricity generation, weather, coal exports, and environmental laws and regulations. Through technological advances, innovative service, competitive rates, and aggressive reinvestment programs, railroads have shown their willingness and ability to provide high value transportation service to their coal customers throughout the country. $19.3 Freight Railroad Spending on Infrastructure & Equipment* ($ billions) Railroads have been spending record amounts in recent years to maintain and improve their infrastructure and equipment. $23.3 $20.2 $21.5 $20.2 $20.7 $25.5 $25.1 $28.0 $30.3 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 *Capital spending + maintenance expenses. Data are for Class I railroads. Source: AAR