Ocean observation to increase predictability in climate change adaptation: status of scientific studies and challenges in Asia and Pacific Fangli Qiao, Zhenya Song, Jingsong Guo First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, China Nov 17, 2015 DaNang, Viet Nam
Outline 1. Where are we 2. Development of advanced models 3. Joint observation and DA 4. Summary
1. Where are we?
(1) Attacked by marine hazards such as Typhoon frequently 4
Haiyan attached the Philippines in Nov 2013, with 6201 dead and 11.8M affected. 5
The relationship with Asian Monsoon 50 45 270 40 180 35 90 季风 厄尔尼诺 30 25-90 -180-270 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 125 130 Stong monsoon: More rain in south and north China, while less rain along Changjiang River 6
(2) Observation 1999 2009 7
Planning for the Indian Ocean Expedition 50 th Anniversary Initiative (IIOE 2, 2015-2020) IIOE IIOE-2 8
ARGO However, ocean monitoring network for marine hazards and climate change is still urgently needed.
(3) Climate models of CMIP5: Double ITCZ and SST
MLD in CMIP5 models Huang et al, 2014, JGR
MLD in OGCM Observation Model from POM 12
For Asian Monsoon area 25 CMIP5 models Rainfall Too late for Monsoon onset Asian summer monsoon too weak while northwest Pacific monsoon too strong Prediction skills of 5 AGCMs (Wang et al, 2004) Sperber et al,2012, CD 13
Typhoon/Hurrican Rappaport et al, 2012, BAMS 14
2. Development of advanced numerical models
(1) Theory of surface wave-induced mixing 2 B exp 2 V E k kz dk E k exp 2kz dk z k k E(K) is the wave number spectrum which can be calculated from a wave numerical model. It will change with (x, y, t), so Bv is the function of (x, y, z, t). Qiao et al, 2004, 2010, 2015 If we regard surface wave as a monochramatic wave, 1 2 B A k e A u e v 3 ( 3 kz) ( 3 kz ) s, Stokes Drift Bv is wave motion related vertical mixing instead of wave breaking.
(1) Temperature evolution in natural condition Laboratory experiments: Wave tank: 5m in length with height of 0.4m and width of 0.2m. To generate temperature gradient through bottom cooling of refrigeration tubes, and temperature sensors are selfrecorded with sampling frequency of 1Hz. (2) Temperature evolution with wave Top of wave tank Temperature sensor Refrigeration tube Dai and Qiao et al, JPO, 2010 Bottom of wave tank
Experiment results without and with waves T T kz t z z kz=k0+bv Evolution of water temperature without waves. (a) Observation; (b) simulation.
Simulation results with waves Evolution of water temperature with waves. Left: observation; right: simulation; (a,b) 1.0cm, 30cm; (c,d) 1.0cm, 52cm;
(2) Improvement of ocean models 3-D coastal circulation model (Special Issue on JGR, 2006 at http://www.agu.org/journals/ ss/chinaseas1/ ) We apply Bv into: Bohai Sea Yellow Sea East China Sea And South China Sea Xia et al, JGR,2006
H(m) 0 T_Bohai section 0 26-5 -10-15 -20-25 385 390 395 400 Latitude(1/10 N) 26 25.5 25 24.5 24 23.5 23 22.5 22 21.5 21 20.5 20 19.5 19 18.5 18 17.5-5 -10-15 -20-25 POM+Bv -30 38 38.5 39 39.5 40 40.5 25.5 25 24.5 24 23.5 23 22.5 22 21.5 21 20.5 20 19.5 19 18.5 18 0-5 -10-15 -20-25 -30 (a) POM 38.5 39 39.5 40 26 25 24 23 22 21 20 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 Observation in summer Lin et al, 2006 JGR 3-D coastal models
3-D global ocean circulation models Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic 35N With waveinduce mixing 35S Without wave effects World Ocean Atlas Along 35N transect in Aug. Along 35S transect in Feb.
Vertical Temperature Distributions Pacific Atlantic Indian Pacific Atlantic With wave-induce mixing Without wave-induce mixing World Ocean Atlas Along 35N transect in Aug. Along 35S transect in Feb.
FIO wave-tide-circulation coupled model 0.1X0.1
(3) Improvement of climate models Summertime oceanic mixed layers are biased shallow in both the GFDL and NCAR climate models (Bates et al. 2012; Dunne et al. 2012, 2013). This scheme (Qiao et al., 2004) has most impact in our simulations on deepening the summertime mixed layers, yet it has minimal impact on wintertime mixed layers. Yalin Fan, and Stephen M. Griffies, 2014, JC (Fig 3)
50a averaged SST (251-300a). Up: Exp1-Levitus, Down: Exp2-Exp1 Exp1: CCSM3 without Bv Exp2: with Bv
FIO-ESM for CMIP5 Wave-induced mixing, Qiao et al., 2004 Land carbon CASA Ocean carbon OCMIP-2 Atmosphere CO2 transport Framework of FIO-ESM version1.0
SST absolute mean errors for 45 CMIP5 models
Sea ice annual cycle in Arctic
2.2 x 1013 2.4 x 1013 2.4 x 1013 2.4 x 1013 2 1.8 1.6 RCP2.6 RCP4.5 RCP6.0 RCP8.5 2.2 2 1.8 2.2 2 1.8 2.2 2 1.8 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.2 January 1.4 February 1.4 March 1.4 April 1 1.2 1.2 1.2 2.2 x 1013 2 x 1013 16 x 1012 15 x 1012 2 1.8 14 1.8 1.6 12 10 1.6 1.4 10 1.4 1.2 8 5 1.2 1 May 1 0.8 June 6 4 July 0 August 12 x 1012 15 x 1012 2 x 1013 2 x 1013 10 8 10 1.5 1.5 6 1 4 2 September 5 October 0.5 November 1 December 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 0.5 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Time series of Arctic sea ice extent from RCP run. Unit: m 2
Without spray With spray Latent HF Without spray With spray Sensible HF
Minimum Sea Level Pressure(hPa) 1000 980 Best track WRF-POM WRF-POM-MASNUM with Bv WRF-POM-MASNUM with Spray WRF-POM-MASNUM with Spray and Bv 960 940 920 900 880 4-Nov 5-Nov 7-Nov 9-Nov 10-Nov
3. Joint observation and DA
DA SST, SLA, Argo RMS AME
DA of FIO-ESM (1992-2014)
5.6 大气模式分量 : 降水 Double ITCZ GPCP
RMS errors with and without DA 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 SST / 60% 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 Vertical V/10-3 Pa*s -1 50% 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Humidity /10-2 g*kg -1 37% 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Rain /mm*day -1 35% 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Hor. V/m*s -1 26% 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Cloud /% 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 OHC /10 19 J 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 SLP /hpa 25% 21% 19%
(3) IPOVAI 2015-2020 Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interaction IPOVAI Project Proposal Dr. Prof. Fangli Qiao First Institute of Oceanography, SOA, China 11-13 May 2015, Phuket, Thailand
Multi-scale Interaction Evaluation and Diagnosis of Predictability Mechanism and Model Predictability Mechanism Analysis Dynamic Process Typhoon Monsoon Dynamic Process Mechanism analysis Western Pacific Circulation, Warm Pool Inter-Ocean Exchange Propagation of climate signal Northern Indian Ocean Circulation Air-Sea Interaction 2015/11/16
4. Summary We have identified the key role of surface wave in ocean and climate models, and coupled models with surface wave have been successfully developed. We would like to share the knowledge; No one nation can afford ocean observations. We need joint efforts, Indo- Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Airsea Interaction (IPOVAI) is open and welcome participants.
Thanks for your attention