Enhancing Crop Productivity and Food Security: The Role of Agricultural Technologies Nicola Cenacchi IFPRI - Environment and Production Technology Division FAO Biotech Symposium Side event: Helping Farmers Grow: Climate Change, Food Security, and the Technology Nexus FAO Rome, Italy February 15, 2016
Business as Usual: Challenges and Threats = Continued Scarcity Challenges Income Population growth Water scarcity Biofuel demand Climate change Higher food prices Growing threats to: Land Water Environmental preservation Biodiversity Enhanced investment in agricultural research + technological change Game-changer Lack sufficient knowledge Disaggregated impacts of specific technologies by country Agroclimatic zone
Presentation Overview 1. Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity (IFPRI) 2. Ex-Ante Analysis of Promising and Alternative Crop Technologies (IFPRI & GFSF)
Modeling climate and technology impacts on agriculture: biophysical & economic effects DSSAT model IMPACT model Climate Biophysical Economic General circulation models (GCMs) Δ Temp Δ Precip Global gridded crop models Δ Yield (biophys) Global economic models Δ Area Δ Yield Δ Cons. Δ Trade Source: Nelson et al., PNAS (2014)
Food Security in a World of Natural Resource Scarcity: The Role of Agricultural Technologies
Technology Assessment Scope Global & Regional Eleven technologies Three Crops Wheat Rice Maize 2 CC scenarios No-Tillage Integrated Soil Fertility Management Organic Agriculture Precision Agriculture Crop Protection Drip Irrigation Sprinkler Irrigation Water Harvesting Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Nitrogen Use Efficiency
Change (%) in Yields: 2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT) Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.
Percent Change in World Price, Maize: 2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT) Change in price of Maize Change in price of Wheat 0.0-2.0-4.0-1.2 0.0-2.0-1.5-6.0-8.0-10.0-4.0-6.0-12.0-14.0-16.0-18.0-12.0-15.5-8.0-10.0-12.0-8.4-9.7 Change in price of Rice 0.0-5.0-0.4-10.0-5.8-15.0-20.0-25.0-20.3 Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.
Change (%) in Population at Risk of Hunger: 2050 with Technology vs. 2050 Baseline (IMPACT) Source: Rosegrant et al. 2014.
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Ex-Ante Analysis of Promising and Alternative Crop Technologies
Technology Assessment Scope Regional only 4 improved varieties 1 CC scenario Drought Tolerance Heat Tolerance Drought & Heat Tolerance Stress Tolerance + High Yield characters Multiple Crops Wheat Maize Potato Sorghum Groundnut
Adoption regions by crop and improved trait Crop Trait Countries (Region) Maize Drought tolerance Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Uganda, United Republic of Tanzania, Zambia, Zimbabwe (M1) Heat tolerance Wheat Drought tolerance Iran, Turkey (W1) Heat tolerance Drought and heat tolerance Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan (M2) India, Pakistan (W2) Argentina, South Africa (W3) Potato Drought Tolerance Bangladesh, China, Kyrgyzstan, India, Nepal, Heat tolerance Pakistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan (P1) Drought and heat tolerance Sorghum Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Eritrea, Ethiopia, India, Mali, Nigeria, Sudan, United Republic of Tanzania (S1) Groundnut Drought tolerance Burkina Faso, Ghana, India, Malawi, Mali, Myanmar, Niger, Nigeria, Uganda, United Republic Heat tolerance of Tanzania, Viet Nam (G1) Drought and heat tolerance, high yielding
Adoption of improved traits may reduce climate change impacts Black line represents 2050 yields without climate change with baseline technology Source: Robinson et al. 2014.
Key Messages Adoption of improved varieties shows the potential for reducing the effects of climate change on yields There are possible large regional differences in yield impacts - it is important to target specific investments to specific regions Large scale adoption of improved varieties may translate into positive food security outcomes due both to effects on production and on global food prices
Concluding Thoughts The traits we model in these studies are independent from the technologies used to produce them Conventional breeding can provide relatively slow improvements, but a steady progress GM (transgenics) may allow more stepwise increase, but the regulatory and legislative challenges are slowing the process (including the progress of biosafety regulations and trials.)
We thank CropLife International, the U.S. State Department, the CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets, and the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security for funding these studies.
Nicola Cenacchi, Senior Research Analyst Email: n.cenacchi@cgiar.org Environment and Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) 2033 K Street, NW Washington, DC 20006 USA IFPRI: http://www.ifpri.org/ Global Futures & Strategic Foresight: http://globalfutures.cgiar.org/