Weekly Corn Commentary for the Week Ending 9/11/15 By Jalen Pietig, Grain Originator/Field Marketing Advisor Highlights: 167.5 bushels per acre is the magic number USDA estimated as the national average corn yield as of September 1 st, 1.3 bpa lower than the August report. The consensus going into today s monthly report was that USDA would lower their corn yield estimate, but the million dollar question remained by how much? The average trade guess prereport was 166.5 bpa, and last month s number was 168.8. USDA found middle ground when it released a 167.5, a drop from last month but a number many in the trade still believe is too high. I think that showed in the latter half of post-report trade today as an originally neutral/slightly bearish report turned into a 13 cent gain for the December contract. A key thing to note is that old crop ending stocks were dropped by 40 million bushels, a number not many were expecting coming into the report. Overall, that and the yield drop, among other categories, led to a 120 million bushel decline in new crop ending stocks. This is an important factor going forward, since a lower yield in future reports would now mean even lower than expected new crop ending stocks, in turn putting amplified pressure on U.S. and world stocks-to-use ratios. It is interesting to note that all five states that USDA had predicted record yields for showed a decline in statewide yields, as MN dropped 1 bpa to 183, NE 3 bpa to 184, and SD 1 bpa to 159 (all still records), WI 1 bpa to 162 (tied for record), and Iowa fell 2 bpa to 181 (182 record). In the East, Illinois yield was raised one bushel to 173, while Indiana dropped two bushels to 156 and Ohio cut off five bushels to 163. Harvested acreage was left alone at 81.1 million acres, while the average trade guess was 100,000 acres lower. Keep that in mind for next month s report. Export sales were slightly positive this week at 16.2 million bushels, in line with expectations. As of Tuesday, the funds were long a little over 100,000 futures only contract, a cut of over 43,000 bushels from the week before. That is positive to fund buying going forward. Corn Weekly Change Contract Close Change % Chg December 2015 3.8700 24 6.61% March 2016 3.9825 23 ¾ 6.34% May 2016 4.0525 23 ¾ 6.23% July 2016 4.1000 23 ½ 6.08% December 2016 4.0975 21 ½ 5.54% Spreads Contract Close Change Dec15:Mar16 11 ¼ Carry Narrowed ¼ Dec15:May16 18 ¼ Carry Narrowed ¼ Dec15:Dec16 22 ¾ Carry Narrowed 2 ½ Type Fund Positions Contracts Futures Only (change) 105,207 (-43,010) Upcoming Reports Sep 14 Export Inspections (10:00) Sep 14 Crop Conditions (3:00) Sep 17 Export Sales (7:30) Interesting technicals are shaping up in corn a weekly close above $3.88 would be positive going forward.
Weekly Soybean Commentary for the Week Ending 9/11/15 By Jalen Pietig, Grain Originator/Field Marketing Advisor Highlights: USDA made a statement by releasing a national average soybean yield of 47.1 bushels per acre, but a friendly old crop carryout number cut 2015/16 ending stocks 20 million bushels as compared to August. The soybean market traded back and forth all week and that trend didn t let up post-report as the market found both positive and negative territory multiple times throughout the session. New contract lows were set today at $8.53 ¼, but the November contract reversed higher and closed just ¼ cent lower on the day. The doji posted on the chart will leave it up to Monday s trade to decide which direction this market wants to break out. The USDA report called for a slightly higher soybean yield of 47.1 bpa vs. last month s 46.9 bpa. Old crop soybean crush and exports both increased, dropping old crop ending stocks from 240 million bushels to 210 mb. That allowed new crop ending stocks to actually decline 20 mb even after the yield bump. Harvested acres were left alone at a record 83.5 million acres. World stocks-to-use declined from 27.7% to 27.1%. USDA left Brazil and Argentina soybean production unchanged from last month at 97.0 MMT and 57.0 MMT respectively. Brazil should start planting within a couple weeks ahead of a strong El Nino spring/summer. It will be important to keep an eye on what areas of the country are experiencing wet or drought conditions. Soybean acres are expected to increase 3-5% this year in Brazil. Export sales were big again this week at 65.7 million bushels. New crop sales are 33% behind last year s pace, USDA is estimating a 6% drop from last year. This will be interesting to watch after harvest. Funds are still long futures only contracts, short if you include options. As of Tuesday they had slightly added onto their long position from the week before and were estimated net neutral in today s post-report trade. Soybeans Weekly Change Contract Close Change % Chg November 2015 8.7425 7 ¾ 0.89% January 2016 8.7750 7 ¾ 0.89% March 2016 8.7900 8 0.92% May 2016 8.7975 6 ¾ 0.77% November 2016 8.6625 6 ½ 0.76% Spreads Contract Close Change Nov15:Jan16 3 ¼ Carry Unchanged Nov15:Mar16 4 ¾ Carry Widened ¼ Nov15:Nov16 8 Inverse 1 ¼ More Inverted Fund Positions Type Contracts Futures Only (change) 34,825 (+4,109) Upcoming Reports Sep 14 Export Inspections (10:00) Sep 14 Crop Conditions (3:00) Sep 17 Export Sales (7:30)
Weather U.S. 6-10 Day Temperature U.S. 6-10 Day Precipitation NOAA 30 Day Precipitation % Departure from Normal
Technical Analysis - Corn was staring at contract lows early in the week but reversed to close at the highest level since the August report. $3.88 would be a big hurdle as it has held for the past month and is now also where the 100-day M.A. rests as well as the 20-week moving average, another key point. A close above that level would leave the high on August 12 of $3.93 the next target and then $4.02 area. The daily chart is well out of oversold territory. - Soybeans reversed to close neutral today, and higher on the weekly charts after posting contract lows soon after the report. That makes new lows at $8.53 ¼, and the 20-day M.A. resistance at $8.84. Another hurdle would be $8.90 after that. The daily chart is neither oversold nor overbought, while the weekly chart still shows a very oversold market, opening the door for a breather. December corn above, November soybeans below Report Date: July 10, 2015 11:00 A.M.
Last but not least, the most important news of the week. Tonight, I ask for your prayers for all those who grieve, for the children whose worlds have been shattered, for all whose sense of safety and security has been threatened. And I pray they will be comforted by a power greater than any of us, spoken through the ages in Psalm 23: Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I fear no evil, for You are with me. President George W. Bush on Sept. 11, 2001 This communication may contain privileged and/or confidential information and is intended only for the use of the individual or entity to whom it is addressed. No waiver of confidentiality or privilege is made by mistransmission. If the reader of this message is not the intended recipient, you are hereby notified that any unauthorized dissemination, distribution, reading, printing, copying and/or use of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have received this communication in error, please immediately notify the sender by return e-mail and delete this message from your system as well as destroy any paper copies made. Harvest Land Cooperative makes no representation or warranty regarding the correctness of any information contained herein, or the appropriateness of any transaction for any person. Nothing herein shall be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any commodity contract