Florida s Future Corridors Initiative Tampa Bay to Central Florida Study Area Concept Report

Florida s Future Corridors Initiative Tampa Bay to Central Florida Study Area Concept Report Technical Report Public Comment Draft Florida Department of Transportation April 2013 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction... 1-1 What Is the Future Corridors Initiative?... 1-4 2.0 Population and Economic Trends... 2-1 Trend: Strong Growth in Population, Jobs, and Visitors... 2-2 Trend: Shift from Discrete Cities to an Integrated Super Region... 2-3 Trend: Diversifying Economy... 2-6 Trend: Expanding Statewide, National, and Global Markets... 2-16 Trend: Growth Concentrating in Existing and New Centers... 2-17 3.0 Person and Freight Travel Trends... 3-1 Trend: Increasing Freight Flows... 3-1 Trend: Changing Personal Travel Patterns... 3-3 Trend: Growing Tourism and Business Travel... 3-5 4.0 Multimodal Transportation System... 4-1 Highways... 4-1 Passenger Rail and Transit... 4-8 Freight Rail... 4-10 Seaports, Airports, and Spaceports... 4-11 Key Issues... 4-13 5.0 Community and Environmental Resources... 5-1 Regional Visions and Plans... 5-1 Community Resources... 5-3 Environmental Resources... 5-4 6.0 Potential Strategies to Address Future Transportation Needs... 6-1 Interstate 4 Corridor Transformation... 6-1 Regional Managed Lanes Network... 6-3 Commuter and Intercity Passenger Rail Improvements... 6-5 Improvements to Freight Rail Connectivity and Access... 6-8 Interstate 4 Relievers... 6-10 Closing Regional Connectivity Gaps... 6-13 Summary... 6-18 7.0 Framework for Moving Forward... 7-1 i Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

List of Tables Table 2.1 Population and Economic Trends and Implications for the Transportation System... 2-1 Table 3.1 Travel Demand Trends and Implications for the Transportation System... 3-1 Table 4.1 MPO/TPO LRTP Adoption Schedule... 4-4 Table 5.1 Guiding Principles from Regional Visions... 5-1 Table 6.1 Policy Screening of Alternative Strategies... 6-18 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area ii

List of Figures Figure 2.1 Total Population, 1960-2060... 2-2 Figure 2.2 Urbanized Area Boundaries, 1990-2010... 2-4 Figure 2.3 Projected Trend Population Growth in Census Places, 2010-2060... 2-5 Figure 2.4 Employment by Major Sector, 2001 and 2011... 2-6 Figure 2.5 Agricultural Production by County... 2-7 Figure 2.6 Mine Locations... 2-8 Figure 2.7 Military Installations... 2-9 Figure 2.8 Major Travel and Tourism Employers... 2-10 Figure 2.9 Major Financial and Business Service Employers... 2-11 Figure 2.10 Major Trade Gateways and Distribution Centers Today... 2-12 Figure 2.11 Potential Future Trade Gateways and Distribution Centers... 2-13 Figure 2.12 Major Manufacturing Employers... 2-14 Figure 2.13 Major Research and Technology Employers... 2-15 Figure 2.14 Emerging Megaregions... 2-16 Figure 2.15 Locations of Major Businesses... 2-17 Figure 2.16 Future Development Sites... 2-19 Figure 2.17 Locations of Sector Plans and Developments of Regional Impact... 2-20 Figure 2.18 Florida's Top Ten Private Landowners... 2-21 Figure 3.1 Commuting Flows in the Super Region... 3-4 Figure 4.1 Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic on SIS Highways... 4-2 Figure 4.2 Capacity Expansion Projects and Needs Along the I-4 Corridor... 4-3 Figure 5.1 Adopted Regional Visions for Tampa Bay and Central Florida... 5-2 Figure 5.2 Properties on the National Register of Historic Places... 5-4 Figure 5.3 Areas of Critical State Concern... 5-6 Figure 5.4 Managed Areas in the Study Area... 5-7 Figure 5.5 Aquatic Preserves in the Study Area... 5-8 Figure 5.6 Wetlands in the Study Area... 5-9 Figure 5.7 Florida Forever Board of Trustees Projects... 5-10 Figure 5.8 Critical Lands and Waters Identification Project... 5-11 Figure 5.9 Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council Regionally Significant Natural Resources... 5-12 Figure 5.10 East Central Florida Natural Resources of Regional Significance... 5-13 Figure 5.11 Seven Jewels of Central Florida... 5-15 Figure 5.12 Conservation Lands Identified by FDOT's National Partners... 5-16 Figure 6.1 Super Regional Network of Managed Lanes... 6-4 Figure 6.2 Existing and Potential Passenger Rail Strategies... 6-7 Figure 6.3 Potential Freight Rail Strategies... 6-9 Figure 6.4 Potential I-4 Relievers... 6-11 Figure 6.5 Potential Regional Connectivity Gaps... 6-14 iii Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

1.0 Introduction The Tampa Bay and Central Florida regions together have more than 7.5 million people and 3.1 million jobs in a 15 county area. 1 The two regions are centrally located within the state of Florida and increasingly share industry clusters, labor markets, and visitor bases. Following decades of sustained population and economic growth, once individual cities and urbanized areas are becoming knit together as a single, integrated Super Region with an estimated $300 billion in combined economic activity per year, the 10 th largest regional economy in the United States. 2 The Tampa Bay and Central Florida economies are rebounding following a deep recession and are expected to return to strong growth. As many as 5.7 million more people (the equivalent of the present-day population of Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties) are expected to live here in 50 years. 3 To plan ahead for this growth, public, private, and civic leaders in both the Central Florida and Tampa Bay regions developed shared visions for the future of their regions. A team of public, private, and civic organizations called myregion.org led the development and implementation of How Shall We Grow?, a regional vision for a seven county region in Central Florida. This vision became the basis for the East Central Florida Regional Planning Council s 2060 strategic regional policy plan and has been incorporated into the comprehensive plans of more than two thirds of the local governments in the region. In Tampa Bay a similar group of partners has collaborated on the OneBay vision. Together, these two efforts have involved tens of thousands of participants from the public, the business community, nonprofit organizations, and government agencies. These two regions have begun identifying infrastructure, economic development, and other strategies needed to help accelerate the integration of the full Super Region. These visions and strategic plans point to a shared future for the entire 15 county area. This future includes stronger economic relationships to support global competiveness and a high quality of life. These efforts also highlight the importance of conserving and protecting critical lands and waters; preserving viable agricultural lands and open spaces; focusing growth in a mix of diverse population and economic centers; and connecting these centers to one another and to external markets through multimodal transportation corridors what How Shall We Grow? labeled the four Cs of conservation, countryside, centers, and corridors. 1 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010; U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Economic Analysis, 2010. For the purposes of this study, the 15 counties, listed from west to east and south to north, are: Sarasota, Manatee, Pinellas, Hillsborough, Pasco, Hernando, Citrus, Polk, Sumter, Lake, Osceola, Orange, Seminole, Brevard, and Volusia. 2 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Economic Analysis, 2010. Estimate developed in consultation with the Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council, 2012. 3 Florida Department of Transportation trend projection, based on University of Florida Bureau of Business and Economic Research forecast, 2012. 1-1 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

The Super Region s transportation system is extensive, comprising multiple modes for moving both people and freight. Interstate 4 is the backbone of the Super Region, connecting its major labor, business, and visitor markets. Additional Interstate and interregional highways, urban expressways, and high capacity passenger and freight rail lines build upon this backbone to connect key population and employment centers. The Super Region s major commercial service airports, deepwater seaports, freight and passenger rail terminals, and spaceport provide connections to other regions, states, and nations (map on page 1-3). This report identifies potential transportation strategies to help connect Tampa Bay and Central Florida into a globally competitive Super Region. It is part of a broader statewide effort, known as Florida s Future Corridors initiative, through which the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) is working with state, regional, and local partners to plan for the future of the major transportation corridors critical to the state s economic competitiveness and quality of life (box on pages 1-4 through 1-6). This Concept Report is the first product of a multi-stage process to plan for transportation investments of statewide significance in the Tampa Bay-Central Florida Super Region. The Concept Report is intended to: Identify anticipated statewide connectivity and mobility needs in the study area; Determine whether significant transportation corridor investments are needed and would be consistent with statewide policies and regional and community visions and plans for future growth; Identify key community and environmental issues to be considered in future stages of planning for transportation corridors; and Provide a framework for moving forward with a more detailed study of potential transportation corridor strategies and investments in one or more segments of the full study area. This Concept Report is organized as follows: Section 2.0 documents key demographic and economic trends and conditions in the study area; Section 3.0 describes current and projected flows of people and freight in the study area; Section 4.0 documents the study area s existing and planned transportation system; Section 5.0 describes current community and environmental resources in the study area; Section 6.0 identifies and assesses potential high level strategies for addressing the mobility and connectivity of people and freight in the study area over the next 50 years; and Section 7.0 identifies key actions for moving forward in this study area. This Concept Report presents a snapshot of the wealth of data that are being collected and analyzed for Florida s Future Corridors. Additional information is available on the Future Corridors website, http://www.flfuturecorridors.org. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 1-2

1-3 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

What Is the Future Corridors Initiative? The Future Corridors initiative is a statewide effort led by the Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) to plan the major transportation corridors critical to the state s economic competitiveness and quality of life over the next 50 years. This initiative builds upon the 2060 Florida Transportation Plan. Why Are We Considering Future Statewide Corridors? Better coordinate long range transportation and development visions and plans to identify long range solutions to support statewide and regional goals for economic development, quality of life, and environmental stewardship. Provide solutions for or alternatives to major highways that already are congested today. Meet growing demand for moving people and freight using all modes: Florida s population is expected to increase 37 percent by 2040, visitors 44 percent by 2040, and freight tonnage 39 percent by 2035. Improve connectivity between Florida and other states and nations, and among Florida s regions, to better support economic development opportunities consistent with regional visions and the Florida Strategic Plan for Economic Development. What Types Of Corridors Are We Planning? A statewide corridor connects Florida to other states or connects broad regions within Florida, generally via high speed, high capacity transportation facilities such as major rail lines, waterways, air service, and Interstate or other limited access highways. These corridors may involve multiple modes of transportation as well as other linear infrastructure such as pipelines and utility transmission lines. There are two approaches to planning for our future corridors: Transforming existing facilities in a corridor to maximize their function, such as adding tolled express lanes, truck-only lanes, or bus rapid transit systems to an existing highway, or adding passenger service to an existing freight rail line. Identifying study areas for potential new parallel facilities to provide alternatives to existing congested facilities or potential new multimodal corridors in regions not well served by statewide corridors today. FDOT has identified five regional pairs as initial study areas for this initiative (map on next page): Tampa Bay to Central Florida; Tampa Bay to Northeast Florida; Southeast Florida through the Heartland to Central Florida; Southwest Florida through the Heartland to Central Florida; and Northwest Florida connectivity to the Florida peninsula and neighboring states. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 1-4

Initial Study Areas How will future corridors be planned? FDOT has developed a three stage process for planning future statewide corridors (figure on next page): Prepare a high level Concept report to identify anticipated statewide connectivity and mobility needs in the study area; determine whether a significant transportation corridor investment in the study area is consistent with statewide policies and available regional and community visions and plans for future growth; identify key community and environmental issues to be considered in future stages; and identify a framework for moving forward in this study area. Conduct an Evaluation study on one or more segments of the full study area to identify and assess potential alternative solutions to the anticipated mobility and connectivity needs; work with partners to build consensus around potential solutions; and develop an action plan for future work on viable corridors. Use FDOT s established Project Development processes to conduct more detailed analyses of specific alternative corridor improvements, continue coordination with partners, and advance projects into implementation. 1-5 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area Concept Report(April 2013)

Future Corridor Planning Process When will future corridors be developed? FDOT began conducting Concept studies on priority study areas in 2012. The intent is to develop a long range framework to guide future investment decisions in these study areas over the next 50 years. This strategy can be integrated over time into local and regional transportation, land use, and conservation plans. Evaluation and Project Development studies will be scheduled on specific segments as appropriate. Construction on some segments could move forward in the next few years, while other corridors may not be developed for a few decades. Who will be involved in planning and developing future corridors? FDOT is the lead agency for this initiative, working with a full range of statewide, regional, and local partners. A state agency working group including the Department of Environmental Protection, Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission, Department of Economic Opportunity, Department of Agriculture and Consumer Affairs, and Federal Highway Administration is guiding the overall initiative. In specific study areas, FDOT will work with a wide range of partners including environmental organizations, business and economic development organizations, utilities, local governments, metropolitan planning organizations, regional planning councils, and public and private landowners to better understand how they envision the future of Florida. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 1-6

2.0 Population and Economic Trends During the past several decades, the Tampa Bay-Central Florida Super Region has been one of the fastest growing areas within both Florida and the United States. The region s appeal to workers, families, retirees, and visitors; historic strength in tourism, natural resources, military, and aerospace industries; competitive position in emerging innovation industries; and extensive transportation system all have contributed to strong gains in both population and employment. After a deep recession between 2007 and 2010, the region is returning to strong growth. The population and the economy of the Super Region have changed significantly over the past 50 years. Largely independent inland railroad towns, a major seaport, and coastal resorts grew into a cluster of small and large cities linked by rail lines, rural highways, and eventually the Interstate Highway System and Florida s Turnpike. More affordable air travel and Interstate Highway System expansions to the rest of the country facilitated population and business growth in multiple areas, from Tampa to Orlando to the Space Coast. Over time, expansions of urban transportation networks, along with investments in communications infrastructure, education, and other underpinnings of the economy, helped the 15 county area to diversify and grow. Future projections suggest that the 15 county area will continue to grow and become increasingly integrated. As the Super Region grows and changes, so too will the demands on its transportation system (Table 2.1). Table 2.1 Population and Economic Trends and Implications for the Transportation System Trends Strong growth in population, jobs, and visitors is resuming. Formerly independent small cities and urbanized areas are being knit together into a single, integrated super region. The region s economy is diversifying, with growth in innovation, life sciences and logistics adding to historic strengths in agriculture, mining, tourism, military, and aerospace. Businesses are expanding to serve national and global markets for products and services. Population and employment growth is occurring in both established and emerging urban centers throughout the study area. Implications for the Transportation System Demand for moving people and freight will continue to grow. The transportation system must function seamlessly and reliably to accommodate trips of multiple purposes and lengths. Businesses will need all modes of transportation; these modes must work together as an integrated system. Seaports and airports must accommodate growth in global trade and travel with strategic capacity expansions and improved landside connections to consumers and exporters in the region. The existing multimodal transportation system may have gaps in regional connectivity to emerging and new economic centers. 2-1 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Trend: Strong Growth in Population, Jobs, and Visitors The Super Region s population expanded rapidly over the past 50 years, from 1.8 million residents in 1960 to just under 7.5 million in 2010 (Figure 2.1). FDOT projections suggest the Super Region s population could reach 13.2 million in 2060, a 76 percent increase over 2010 levels. 4 The How Shall We Grow? and OneBay initiatives were based on an even higher growth rate, with both processes assuming population could double over the next 50 years. Figure 2.1 Total Population, 1960-2060 14 12 Millions of People 10 8 6 4 2 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; FDOT projections based on the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research s mid-range estimate through 2035. The region s employment also surged over the past four decades, from under 1 million jobs in 1970 to a peak of 3.2 million in 2007. Employment dropped more than 10 percent between 2007 and 2010 in the most severe recession to strike the region in the post-world War II era. 5 Recent data suggest the economy is turning the corner, but it will likely take several years for the region to regain all of the lost jobs. Employment in the various state workforce regions that comprise the study area is projected to increase between 5 and 20 percent between 2010 and 2019. The number of visitors also is expected to grow, with gains in the number of leisure and business travelers from both domestic and international markets. Central Florida and Tampa Bay are two of Florida s largest visitor destinations and key contributors to the state s record 87 million out-ofstate visitors in 2011. The heart of both of these regions, Orange and Hillsborough counties, ranked as the top two destination counties for all visitors within the state of Florida. 6 4 Historical data from U..S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census; FDOT projections based on the University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research mid-range estimate through 2035. 5 U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. 6 VISIT FLORIDA, 2010 Florida Visitor Study. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-2 )

This growth in population, employment, and visitors all will contribute to increased demand for moving people and freight to, from, and within the study area. Trend: Shift from Discrete Cities to an Integrated Super Region As recently as 1990, the urbanized areas in Tampa Bay and Central Florida were relatively discrete, with small towns, rural areas, and undeveloped lands filling the space between the major urban centers of Tampa and Orlando. By 2010, the number and size of the urbanized areas had expanded and existing urbanized areas had grown together. There is now a nearly continuous swath of urbanized areas along the entire length of Interstate 4 (Figure 2.2). Many other metropolitan regions across the United States have grown in a radial pattern with growth shifting from the urban core to suburbs and then more far flung exburbs. The development pattern in both Tampa Bay and Central Florida has been more linear, with growth occurring along the transportation corridors that connect the two regions, and now the full Super Region, together. A constellation of urbanized areas, smaller cities, and towns stretches from coast to coast, from North Port to Daytona Beach and from Crystal River to Palm Bay. This Super Region in turn is part of a megaregion that may eventually include the entire Florida peninsula and will compete on the world stage for investment, talent, visitors, and trade. Growth in recent years has shifted toward the inland counties, with strong gains in Polk, Lake, and Sumter counties. This trend is expected to continue through 2060 (Figure 2.3). While traditional urban centers in Hillsborough and Orange counties will continue to expand, the trend forecast projects the highest growth rates will occur in the inland counties creating a north-south axis to the region s growth along with the traditional east-west development along I-4. Implementation of the regional visions would focus more growth into existing urban centers and a small number of emerging cities. The overall pattern following the I-4 spine with branches to the north and south is anticipated in the regional visions as well. With this increasing integration, the transportation system must be designed to meet the combined needs of local, regional, and long distance passenger and freight trips. People commuting to work and accessing daily needs, business travelers, tourists, and freight all require a safe, reliable, efficient, and seamless multimodal transportation system. Improvements to the region s transportation network can make the movement of people and goods faster, more efficient, and more reliable, better linking businesses to markets and people to jobs. 2-3 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Figure 2.2 Urbanized Area Boundaries, 1990-2010 1990 2000 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-4 )

Figure 2.2 Urbanized Area Boundaries, 1990-2010 (continued) 2010 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Figure 2.3 Projected Trend Population Growth in Census Places, 2010-2060 Population Growth by Place, 2010-2060 Source: Florida Department of Transportation, June 2012. The size of the circle is in proportion to 2010 population levels, and the color of the circle corresponds to projected growth, with the darker color indicating the highest growth rates. 2-5 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Trend: Diversifying Economy Similar to other parts of Florida, the Super Region s economy historically was based on natural resources (particularly agriculture and mining), tourism, military, and industries tied to population growth, including construction, real estate, and retail trade. Over time, small pockets of other industries developed in some parts of these regions for example, aerospace near Cape Canaveral and business support centers in Tampa Bay. The recent recession accelerated the long term transition of the Super Region s economy. During the past decade, the region lost jobs in resource-based industries, construction, and manufacturing, but experienced solid gains in professional and business services, education and health services, and leisure and hospitality (Figure 2.4). Trade (wholesale and retail), transportation, and utilities is now the largest major industry sector in the combined region based on employment. Figure 2.4 Employment by Major Sector, 2001 and 2011 (thousands) Mining, Logging, and Construction Manufacturing Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Education and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Government 0 200 400 600 2001 2011 Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the next few decades, the Super Region s economy will be driven by clusters of interrelated industries. Many of the key industry clusters are dependent on transportation for access to labor, markets, suppliers, customers, and visitors. Each cluster requires a different mix of transportation infrastructure and services; cumulatively, this diversity points to the need for a fully integrated, multimodal system. The geography of each cluster varies, with I-4 and other transportation corridors often providing an organizing framework. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-6 )

The following pages document existing activity in eight industry clusters: Agriculture; Financial and business services; Mining; Trade and logistics; Military and defense; Manufacturing; and Travel and tourism; and Research and innovation Agriculture. Agriculture remains a key foundation of the region s economy. Agricultural receipts across the 15 counties totaled nearly $2.2 billion in 2007 (most recent data available). Four counties Hillsborough, Manatee, Orange, and Polk recorded receipts in excess of $200 million (Figure 2.5). Polk County is the largest citrus producer in the state and Manatee, Hillsborough, and Osceola counties are among the top 15. The region also is a key producer of fruits, nursery and greenhouse plants, and livestock. Agriculture has been under pressure from global competition as well as conversion of agricultural land to urban development. However, growing demand for food regionally and globally, as well as the emergence of new products such as biofuels, creates potential for long term growth. Agriculture relies heavily on all modes to transport raw materials and final products, including an extensive network of farm to market roads. Figure 2.5 Agricultural Production by County Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Census of Agriculture, 2007. 2-7 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Mining. Mining historically has been a cornerstone of the region due to the presence of one of the world s foremost deposits of phosphates, a key ingredient in fertilizer, in Bone Valley in Hillsborough, Manatee, Polk and Hardee counties. Fertilizer processing facilities have located in close proximity, and an extensive rail and road network has developed to connect to the Port of Tampa. Even as global demand remains strong, regional resources will become depleted over time, leaving land for development with extensive infrastructure in place. In addition, limestone, sand, and gravel quarries are located throughout the region, producing materials for road building and construction (Figure 2.6). Many of these mines rely on rural roads or rail connections. Figure 2.6 Mine Locations Source: Mineral Resource Data System, U.S. Geological Service, 2012; Florida Geological Survey, Florida Department of Environmental Protection, 2012. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-8 )

Military and defense. The region is home to five major military bases: MacDill Air Force Base in Tampa; Naval Support Activity Orlando; and Patrick Air Force Base, Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, and U.S. Air Force Malabar Test Facility in Brevard County (Figure 2.7). The military is an intensive user of transportation. Access between its bases and the multimodal transportation system is critical to support its large workforce and supplier network, as well as to support emergency preparedness. The U.S. Department of Defense designates the U.S. Strategic Highway Network and Strategic Rail Command Network to link critical installations. Figure 2.7 Military Installations Source: Florida Defense Alliance, 2011. 2-9 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Travel and tourism. The Super Region ranks among the top destinations in the United States for domestic and international visitors, including both leisure and business travelers. The region includes four of the nation s largest theme parks, several of the nation s top ranked beaches, over 244,000 hotel rooms, and 17 major sporting facilities (Figure 2.8). The travel and tourism industry centers around Orlando with large concentrations in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Sarasota, Brevard, and Volusia counties. The quality of the region s airports, cruise passenger terminals, and highways is critical to this industry, and improved connectivity coast-to-coast can encourage more visitors to travel to multiple locations in the region. Figure 2.8 Major Travel and Tourism Employers Source: FDOT; Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-10 )

Financial and business services. Tampa and Orlando are both regional centers for financial and business services including law, engineering, architecture, and consulting (Figure 2.9). Tampa has a large concentration of call centers and other back-office support services. The Space Coast has one of the nation s highest concentrations of engineers due to the historic legacy of the space program. Polk County is emerging in importance in these industries. Professional services companies need connectivity within and across the two regions to visit customers, as well as connectivity to airports for travel outside the region. Figure 2.9 Major Financial and Business Service Employers Source: InfoGroup 2010. 2-11 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Trade and logistics. The Super Region s large consumer and visitor market and strategic location in the center of the Florida peninsula has supported development of a large freight transportation and distribution industry. This industry today is spread along I-4/I-275 from Pinellas to Orange counties, with additional concentrations in portions of Volusia and Brevard counties. Key locations are close to the Port of Tampa, Port Manatee, and Port Canaveral; air cargo terminals in Tampa and Orlando; and intermodal rail-truck transfer facilities in Tampa and Orlando (Figure 2.10). Figure 2.10 Major Trade Gateways and Distribution Centers Today Source: InfoGroup 2010; Florida Department of Transportation. This industry cluster is expected to grow in the future, reflecting overall growth in the region s population and economy, as well as growing international trade to, from, and through Florida. Expansions of the major seaports and airports expansions, as well as CSX s development of a national-scale intermodal logistics center in Winter Haven, will reinforce the existing concentrations of activity. In addition, the planned development of Port Citrus at the entrance to the partially completed Cross Florida Barge Canal, as well as proposals to develop major intermodal logistics centers in Sumter and Marion counties, could create a new concentration of logistics and distribution activity in the northern part of the study area (Figure 2.11) Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-12 )

Figure 2.11 Potential Future Trade Gateways and Distribution Centers Source: InfoGroup 2010; Florida Department of Transportation. 2-13 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Manufacturing. Manufacturing jobs declined sharply during the recession, but stabilized over the past two years. Manufacturing accounts for about five percent of the region s jobs today. Manufacturing output has increased over the past few years, driven by export markets. The manufacturing sector is evolving from its traditional focus on processed food and fertilizers to a more technologically oriented mix, including aerospace, medical equipment, and electronics. Manufacturing activity is spread throughout the region with concentrations in the large urbanized areas as well as along the I-4 corridor (Figure 2.12). All modes of transportation are important to the supply and distribution of manufactured products, with increasing emphasis on seaports and airports for export activity and trucking for regional and national connectivity. Figure 2.12 Major Manufacturing Employers Source: InfoGroup 2012, Florida Department of Transportation Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-14 )

Research and technology. Many parts of the Super Region are targeting growth in technology oriented industries such as life sciences, aerospace, and information technology. These industries thrive on access to major universities and research laboratories, interaction with other firms, availability of a skilled workforce, and connectivity to other global markets. Florida s High Tech Corridor, an economic development initiative initially connecting the University of South Florida to the University of Central Florida, has expanded over time to include the University of Florida, 12 community and state colleges, and business, workforce and economic development organizations over a 23 county region (Figure 2.13). Figure 2.13 Major Research and Technology Employers Sources: InfoGroup2010; National Center for Education Statistics, College Navigator, 2012; Federal Laboratory Consortium for Technology Transfer, 2012; Florida Department of Transportation, 2012. 2-15 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Trend: Expanding Statewide, National, and Global Markets The markets for these industry clusters are expanding from regional to national and global. Studies by America 2050 and other national organizations suggest that over the next few decades, the entire Florida peninsula will be linked together into a single megaregion (Figure 2.14). The Florida megaregion will be one of 10 to 12 megaregions that account for about 75 percent of all United States population and employment growth during that period. The Tampa Bay-Central Florida corridor is the centerpiece of this megaregion. As the megaregion emerges, travel between Tampa Bay/Central Florida and Southeast, Southwest, and Northeast Florida will become more significant, as will connections to the other U.S. megaregions. Figure 2.14 Emerging Megaregions The Tampa Bay and Central Florida regions also are becoming more significant exporters. Merchandise exports originating in the five metropolitan statistical areas located in the Super Region s totaled $13.4 billion in 2011, up 70 percent from 2005. 7 Key export markets are oriented toward Latin America and the Caribbean, as well as Canada and parts of Europe and Asia. Key export goods include computers and electronics, chemicals, transportation equipment, industrial machinery, and electrical equipment. 7 U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, Origin of Movement Based Series. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-16 )

Trend: Growth Concentrating in Existing and New Centers Population and jobs in the Super Region are concentrated in a relatively small number of established urban centers, but new economic centers are emerging over time. These centers historically have located on major transportation corridors in fact, 68 percent of the Super Region s population and 95 percent of its jobs are located within five miles of limited access highway corridors (Figure 2.15). Figure 2.15 Locations of Major Businesses Source: InfoGroup 2010, Florida Department of Transportation. The two largest concentrations of jobs are clustered around the cities of Tampa and Orlando. These two cities, with large geographic areas and available land for development, are projected to expand significantly over the next 50 years. Both Tampa and Orlando comprise multiple employment centers, including newer centers such as New Tampa to the north of Tampa, Horizon West to the west of Orlando, and Lake Nona to the southeast of Orlando. Both also are part of multicounty urbanized areas, with the Tampa-St. Petersburg urbanized area including portions of Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, and Polk counties; and the Orlando urbanized area including portions of Orange, Lake, Seminole, and Osceola counties. In addition to these two large urbanized areas, the region includes several other centers. Described clockwise from the Gulf Coast north of Tampa, key centers include: 2-17 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Pasco and Hernando counties, to the north of Tampa, include the Zephyrhills and Spring Hill urbanized areas. Traditionally these have been amenity-rich retirement communities such as Brooksville that are attractive options for the large Baby Boom generation that has just begun to leave the workforce. These counties are trying to diversify their economic base. Industry is growing along I-75, US 19, and the Suncoast Parkway, and growth is targeted around key sites such as the Hernando County Airport Industrial Park in Brooksville. Citrus County, further north, has been transitioning from rural to urban. As of the 2010 Census, three Citrus County cities - Homosassa Springs, Beverly Hills, and Citrus Springs -- were together designated as one of the nation s newest urbanized areas, with a combined population exceeding 80,000 residents. The county is studying the feasibility of developing Port Citrus as the state s 15th deepwater seaport, and also targeting growth in technology industries through developing business incubators and airport industrial parks. Lake and Sumter counties also provide a mix of retirement and workforce communities, agricultural activity, and emerging industries. Leesburg-Eustis-Tavares and Lady Lakes-The Villages (which also includes part of Marion County) were designated urbanized areas as of the 2000 Census and grew rapidly during the next decade. Sumter County is exploring development of a major industrial center near the intersection of Florida s Turnpike and I-75 in Wildwood, and Lake County is exploring development of the Leesburg Airport, redevelopment of historic downtown areas such as Tavares, and targeted new developments. Volusia County includes the Deltona urbanized area and part of the Palm Coast-Daytona Beach-Port Orange urbanized area, which now extends into Flagler County. The county includes historic cities such as Deland and DeBary, as well the globally known attractions at Daytona Beach. The introduction of SunRail commuter service will facilitate more integration of the Volusia and Orlando economies. Brevard County includes the Palm Bay-Melbourne urbanized area and the Titusville urbanized area, as well as a small portion of the Sebastian--Vero Beach South--Florida Ridge urbanized area. Brevard County is facing the transition of the federal space program but provides a strong base of skilled science and engineering workers. Port Canaveral is one of the world s largest cruise ports and the region s beaches are a draw for visitors. Palm Bay is a rapidly growing coastal community, and Viera is a master planned community west of I-95. The Kissimmee urbanized area, centered in Osceola County, historically focused on hospitality related activity tied to Orlando area attractions. New population and economic centers are developing in the northeast district of Osceola County, facilitated by transportation facilities like SR 417 (the Central Florida GreeneWay) and Florida s Turnpike, as well as proximity to Orlando International Airport. Polk County has become the connecting point for the Super Region. The populations of the Lakeland and Winter Haven urbanized areas each exceeded 200,000 residents in 2010. Growth is projected to continue in these areas as well as smaller communities. Key drivers include distribution and manufacturing activity and expanding tourism tied to Legoland and planned resorts. Major developments include the CSX Winter Haven Intermodal Terminal, the Florida Polytechnic University in Lakeland, and commerce parks and biomass plants in the county. The Sarasota-Bradenton urbanized area includes portions of Sarasota, Manatee, and Charlotte counties. Port Manatee is located near the mouth of Tampa Bay. Tropicana recently made a long term commitment to maintain its corporate headquarters and major orange juice processing facility in Bradenton. Lakewood Ranch, located along I-75 in central Manatee County is expected to become a major employment center in the future. Sarasota County is a well known retirement community, visitor destination, and center for arts and design. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-18 )

The regional visioning efforts and economic development plans developed by the Super Region s five regional planning councils and other economic development organizations have defined future priorities. The development sites identified in Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies and other strategic planning documents are spread throughout the region some in redevelopment areas close to existing infrastructure, and some in greenfield locations (Figure 2.16). Proposed developments of regional impact and sector plans also are spread across the region (Figure 2.17). These sites are in various stages of development, ranging from visioning to construction. As some or all of these projects and ideas move forward, they have the potential to reshape the region s economic geography and associated demand for moving people and freight. Figure 2.16 Future Development Sites Identified in Comprehensive Economic Development Strategies Sources: Central Florida Regional Planning Council Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, 2012; East Central Florida Regional Planning Council Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, 2012, Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, 2012, Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, 2012, Withlacoochee Regional Planning Council Comprehensive Economic Development Strategy, 2012 2-19 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Figure 2.17 Locations of Sector Plans and Developments of Regional Impact Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, 2012. The evolving plans of private landowners also could have significant impacts on the future development of parts of the Super Region. Two of Florida s largest private landowners have significant holdings in this study area (Figure 2.18): Deseret Ranches of Florida owns about 290,000 acres of land in Brevard, Orange, and Osceola counties. Deseret operates one of the largest cattle businesses in the United States, manages wildlife, produces citrus fruits, harvests timber, mines fossilized shell, and manages other land uses. The company is often cited as a model operation for working in harmony with natural systems for the production of food. Deseret s central location between the Orlando and Brevard County economic centers and its proximity to the Orlando International Airport, Lake Nona, and St. Cloud make it a key stakeholder in future planning in the region. Relying on the new Florida sector planning legislation, Osceola County has undertaken a large scale master planning effort for a portion of Deseret s property in the Northeast District, just south of Lake Nona. The Mosaic Company owns about 254,000 acres of land in Hillsborough, Manatee, and Polk counties, as well as in adjacent Hardee and Desoto counties. Mosaic is the world's leading combined producer and marketer of concentrated phosphate and potash. Currently, the company mines all of its domestic phosphate reserves from Florida. Mosaic has been in business in the central Florida area for more than 50 years. About five years ago, Mosaic Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-20 )

created a strategic regional development framework plan for landholdings. The plan included high level land use, sustainability, circulation, conservation and economic development strategies. The effort also identified and organized future development opportunity areas and provided community planning and design for several focused sites. Overall, the effort sought to maximize the future value of the land while protecting the unique environmental setting to create a lasting legacy for the state. Development is currently underway on Streamsong Resort, Mosaic s first real estate development venture, an upscale and unique resort and conference center project situated on a 16,000 acre former mine site in southern Polk County. Multiple developments of regional impact are underway involving Mosaic property. Figure 2.18 Florida's Top Ten Private Landowners Source: Florida Trend Economic Yearbook, 2011. 2-21 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 2-22 )

3.0 Person and Freight Travel Trends Population and economic trends are causing significant changes in demand for moving people and freight in the Super Region (Table 3.1). Table 3.1 Travel Demand Trends and Implications for the Transportation System Trends The expanding population and economy, as well as Florida s strategic location at the crossroads of global trade lanes, are increasing domestic and international freight flows. The expanding population and economy is increasing travel demand for all types of trips, with particular emphasis on longer trips to support growing economic ties between cities in the Super Region. The number of domestic and international visitors is large and growing. Implications for the Transportation System Truck and rail traffic are increasing, and more freight will be moving into and out of the region s seaports and airports. People traveling longer distances are competing with long distance freight traffic for limited space on interregional highways. There may be a need for alternative routes and modes. Visitor activity places significant demand on airport and highway capacity. Greater connectivity could help expand visitor activity. Trend: Increasing Freight Flows Demand for moving freight is anticipated to grow rapidly over the next 50 years in the study area. This reflects multiple factors: Strong anticipated growth in population, visitors, and economic activity will create more demand for raw materials, intermediate inputs, final goods, and services such as waste removal. The economic development strategy across 15 counties emphasizes retaining a strong presence in agricultural and tourism while diversifying into new markets such as technology-oriented manufacturing and logistics. The Super Region is well positioned to be a logistics platform for the rest of the state of Florida, reflecting its central location within the Florida peninsula and existing transportation linkages. Freight activity is increasing as warehouses and distribution centers are constructed to handle imports to consumer markets in the Super Region and elsewhere in the state of Florida. 3-1 Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area

Florida as a whole is well positioned for anticipated growth in global trade due to its location near the crossroads of north-south and east-west trade lanes. The widening of the Panama Canal, along with continued growth in Latin American and Caribbean trade, is expected to increase the flow of trade through Florida s seaports and airports. The state has set a goal of positioning Florida as a global hub for trade, logistics, and export-oriented manufacturing, including doubling the value of Florida-origin exports by 2015. This means more global trade through the Super Region s seaports and airports, as well as more trade passing through the Super Region on its way to or from trade gateways in other parts of the state. For all of these reasons, domestic and international trade flows in the Super Region are expected to grow rapidly over the next few decades.. Over 359 million tons of trade moved to, from, through, and within the 15 county area in 2010. If current trends continue, this volume is projected to increase 83 percent by 2060, reaching over 656 million tons. 8 Trucking is the predominant mode for moving trade in the study area, carrying 75 percent of all freight volume. The balance is roughly split between water and rail. Air cargo accounts for a small percentage of freight volume, but carries high value commodities. Polk, Hillsborough, and Orange counties are the major generators and consumers of trade in the Super Region. Polk and Hillsborough counties are leading producers of phosphates and agricultural products in the state of Florida. Hillsborough and Orange counties are major urban and visitor centers with large demands for consumer goods. All three counties are important centers for distribution and manufacturing. The top domestic trading partners for the Super Region are other Florida counties and the neighboring states of Georgia and Alabama. 9 Louisiana is also a top trading partner due to its function as a transloading point for goods transported along the Mississippi River via barge (primarily grain, coal, and petroleum products). Significant international trading partners for the study area include Central America and the Caribbean. Trade with Asia is expected to increase after the Panama Canal widening is completed. 10 As the Super Region s economy diversifies, so too will its trade flows. Resource-based industries such as agriculture and mining typically produce large bulk shipments that travel by rail and barge/ship. Today s knowledge and service industries generate demand for smaller, high value parcels that move by truck and air. Statewide forecasts indicate that the fastest growing modes for trade flows include international air cargo and intermodal/containerized rail, truck, and water shipments all of which may double by 2035. 11 The flow of trade is anticipated to shift as well. In 2009, the Super Region s seaports handled just 45 percent of the waterborne cargo ultimately consumed in the study area. The remaining 8 Florida Chamber Foundation, Florida Trade and Logistics Study, December 2010. These totals do not include local delivery or non-freight truck trips, such as waste management, utilities, repairs, and other services. 9 MetroPlan Orlando, Central Florida Regional Freight Study Current and Regional Freight and Goods Flow Profile, August 2012. 10 Florida Department of Transportation District 7, Tampa Bay Regional Goods Movement Study Implications of the Panama Canal Expansion on the Tampa Bay Region, October 2008. 11 Florida Chamber Foundation, Florida Trade and Logistics Study, December 2010. Tampa Bay-Central Florida Study Area 3-2