Intelligence and Insight You Can Trust. Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 1

Combat Edge or Niche Capabilty? The Future of Unmanned Aircraft in the US Air Force Caitlin Lee Military Aviation Correspondent, IHS Jane s MPhil/PhD Student, King s College War Studies Department, London Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 2

Major Themes UAVs at a Crossroads: Budgetary Uncertainty/Changing Strategic Environment Centrality of the US Air Force (USAF) in Determining the Future of UAVs in US military (Will UAVs remain at combat edge or become niche capability?) Importance of USAF Perceptions of UAV Status Conclusion: USAF Perceptions of UAVs are very mixed; too early to tell Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 4

Uncertainty: Growing Budgetary Pressure $3.8 billion in FY13 budget proposal for unmanned aircraft But UAVs have to compete with manned aircraft for price/operational utility Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 5

UAV Pilot Status: Using Traditional 11X Pilots General Ronald Fogelman, Former CSAF, assigns traditional 11x pilots to fly UAVs 1. Leaders of the USAF 2. Air Traffic Control Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 10

UAV Pilot Status: Creation of the 18X Career Field Creation of 18X career field in FY10 Rated and Non-rated Officers can join Positive Development for UAV Pilot Status Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 11

Negative Perceptions of 18X Among Traditional Pilots In the early days, RPAs weren t really considered airplanes by the air force. We treated them as such as far as maintenance, but no pilot wanted to fly them. There was nothing glamorous about it, and it was almost treated as a punishment. Lt. Col Rick Thomas (ret), USAF Global Hawk Functional Manager "Pilots flying fighter aircraft enjoy flying fighter aircraft. Presenting them the option to sit in a can and operate an aircraft remotely--not getting to fly--is not necessarily going to be received well. Col. Raymond O'Mara, a career F-15C fighter pilot and chair of the Strategy Department at the USAF's Air War College Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 13

Perceptions of Valor: Medals The Air Force recognizes RPA pilots for their operational accomplishments, however they are not eligible for joint decorations such as the Air Medal and Distinguished Flying Cross since RPA pilots are not physically in the aircraft during flight. USAF public affairs, 9 July 2012 Air Achievement Medal: 20 combat support missions (Based on a point system) Eligible for multiple medals Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 14

18X Promotions Pilot promotions The promotion rates by paygrade and airframe for the past five promotion cycles: 2007 2008 2009 2010 Bomber Fighter Major 93.8 97.5 Lt. col. 66.7* 81.9 Major 93.2 98.3 Lt. col. 87.5 80.3 Colonel 45.0* 45.6 Major 93.2 98.6 Lt. col. 86.7 81.4 Colonel (A) 45.5* 56.1 Colonel (B) 30.0* 58.2 Major 93.8 96.4 Lt. col. 71.9 84.2 Colonel 32 48.8 2011 Major 92.2 92.7 Lt. col. 79.5 77.9 Colonel 57.1** 54.5 *20 or fewer eligible ** 10 or fewer eligible Credit: Air Force Times, August 21, 2012 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 15

UAV Pilot Status: Mixed Perceptions Currently mixed perceptions of UAV Pilot status No firm USAF Plans to Change Things Year Training Production FY11 60 FY12 146 Fy13 168 FY 168 Fy15 168 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 16

UAV Status as Reflected in USAF Organizational Structure 2000: 0 UAV squadrons 2005: 4 UAV squadrons Today: 24 UAV squadrons (16 active duty, 8 Guard/Reserve) #USAF UAVs: 250 UAVs (MQ-1s, MQ-9s and RQ-4s as of Nov 2011) Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 17

External Pressure from Gates Like Pulling Teeth Gates Speech at Air Force Academy, April 21, 2008 USAF puts out release on 6 May: CAPs Have Doubled from 12 in 2007 to 24 in 2008 Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 19

UAV Organizational Changes: Shift to the Air National Guard MQ-1/9 locations RQ-4 locations Training Locations Highlighted in Red 9 RW 9 OG Beale AFB 12 RS RQ-4 LRE/MCE 1 RS RQ-4 FTU 163 ARW CA ANG March ARB 196 RS MQ-1 MCE, FTU 432 WG/432 AEW (AD/AFR) Creech AFB 11 RS MQ-1/9 LR Training 15 RS MQ-1 MCE 17 RS MQ-1/9 MCE 18 RS MQ-1 MCE 22 RS MQ-9 MCE 26 WPS MQ-1/9 Weapon School 30 RS RQ-170 FTU, MCE 42 ATKS MQ-9 MCE 214 RG AZ ANG Davis-Monthan AFB 214 RS MQ-1 MCE 27 SOW (AFR) Nellis AFB 2 SOS MQ-1 MCEs 49 FW (AD/AFR) Holloman AFB 6 RS MQ-1 FTU 9 ATKS MQ-9 FTU, 29 ATKS MQ-9 FTU 28 WG Ellsworth AFB 432 ATKS MQ-9 MCE Pueblo, CO RPA Flt Screening 27 SOW Cannon AFB 3 SOS - MQ-1 MCE, LRE 33 SOS - MQ-9 MCE, LRE 9 RW 69 RG Grand Forks AFB 348 RS RQ-4 LRE/MCE 119 WG ND ANG Hector IAP/Grand Forks AFB 178 RS MQ-1 MCE, LRE 432 WG/432 AEW Whiteman AFB 20 RS MQ-1 MCE Randolph AFB Inst Qual Crse RPA Fundamentals Crse 147 FW TX ANG Ellington Field/Ft Polk 111 RS MQ-1 MCE, LRE 178 WG OH ANG Springfield IAP 162 RS MQ-1 MCE 27 SOW (AFR) Eglin AFB Complex Future location 174 FW NY ANG Hancock Field/Ft Drum 138 RS MQ-9 MCE, LRE, FTU Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 20 20

UAV Status As Reflected in Technological Innovation: MQ-1/9 Ground Control Station General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Block 30 Ground Control Station Credit: GA-ASI Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 21

Mixed USAF Perceptions of Technological Change: Stalled UAV Programs FY13 budget request reduced Reaper Production from 48 to 24 from FY2013-2017 Optionally Manned bomber MQ-X dead? RQ-170 Sentinel Credit: Jean Claude Marche Boeing Phantom Ray Credit: Boeing X-47B UCAS-D Credit: Northrop Grumman General Atomics Predator C (Sea Avenger) Credit: General Atomics Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 23

Conclusion UAVs have wrought major changes to USAF pilot roles, organizational structure, and technology USAF perceptions of these changes have been mixed USAF leadership has made efforts to elevate the status of UAVs, but there are signs that status could be waning It remains unclear whether the USAF is willing to invest the time and money to retain UAVs in its mainline concept of operations Without investing the time and money to upgrade UAVs, they won t be able to compete in the emerging strategic context in competition with other weapon systems for limited funds Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 24

Questions? Caitlin Lee, Aviation correspondent, IHS/Janes Caitlinharringtonlee@gmail.com Huw Williams Unmanned Systems Editor, Jane s International Defence Review Huw.Williams@ihs.com Copyright 2008 IHS Inc. All Rights Reserved. 25