Residential dynamics in Spain Spanish housing market on the rise April 015 This issue gives rise to Trebol s publications with a double objective: shed light on the trends and prospects of the real estate market and reflect the strategic line of Trébol as a business unit within PwC. Trébol News Positive expectations and economic improvements reactivate the housing market since 014 Housing development remains very weak but financing and demand are rebounding, as reflected by the increase in transactions Emerging and uneven demand growth introduce new challenges and investment opportunities Challenges and opportunities After the deep slump in the Spanish residential market, 014 experienced a more optimistic scenario. Positive economic prospects, the increase of mortgages granted, and a gradual rebound in housing transactions and prices suggest a turning point in the residential sector since the beginning of the crisis in 007. However, these emerging trends have yet to proliferate to address the mid and long term obstacles facing the Eurozone; financial difficulties, high unemployment and population decline. With this in mind, key drivers to investment success involve new housing practices, needs and demands brought on by rental growth; continued population aging; household size reduction; new family forms; and renewed attraction for city centres.
Main drivers of the residential sector The strengthened economic recovery The main economic indicators of the final quarters of 014 showed steady improvements which boosted the real estate sector. The fourth quarter of 014 saw Spanish GDP grow by 0.7 and the average annual number of employed persons rise by 434,000. However, recovery and growing confidence must be more widespread to properly address the challenges posed by the risk of eurozone recessionfinancial obstacles, job insecurity and a declining labour force, critical indicators for demand in the housing sector. Graph 3 highlights the sharp contraction in the mortgage market and its moderate recovery by the end of 014. 0 Graph 1 Spanish GDP annual and quarterly variation 3 1 3 01,5 01 01,1 01,7 013, 013,7 013 013 0 014 0,6 014 1, 014 1,6 014 Quarterly var. Annual var. Source: INE (Office for National Statistics). Graph Graph 3 Spanish unemployent rate, active population and number of employed Change in the number and value of mortages granted in Spain Number (k.) 5.000 30 0.000 15.000 10.000 5.000 0 0 03 04 05 06 07 14 14 5 0 15 10 5 Uneployent rate Number.000.000 1.800.000 1.600.000 1.400.000 1.00.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 00.000 07 14 04 350.000.000 300.000.000 50.000.000 00.000.000 Value 150.000.000 100.000.000 50.000.000 0 Unemployment rate Labour force Working population Number of mortgages Value of mortgages Source: INE (Office for National Statistics). Source: INE (Office for National Statistics).
Population decline and aging as the main demographic challenges for the residential sector The once strong population growth seen up to the start of the crisis as the result of the unprecedented arrival of international immigrants, has come to a halt. What s more, since 013, Population changes in Spain (absolute and relative figures) 48M Number Graph 4 47M 46M 45M 44M 43M 4M 41M 40M 39M Source: Padrón de habitantes. 0 03 04 05 06 07 14 Pop. increase Birth rate evolution in Spain (births per thousand inhabitants) Number 0 18 16 14 1 10 8 6 4 Graph 5 Population 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 Births per thousand inhabitants Source: INE (Office for National Statistics). Lineal (Births per thousand inhabitants),5 1,5 1 0,5 0 0,5 Spain has recorded a population decline which, together with decreasing birth rates, limits the potential growth of housing demand in the mid and long term. At the same time, population aging remains another major residential challenge. From 1998 to 014, the percentage of the population over 65 has grown from 16 to 18.1, according to the Census figures. Thus, key to investment decisions in the sector involves the specific housing needs and preferences of the elderly in terms of location, size, amenities, and services. Graph 6 Population by age, gender and nationality in Spain. 000, 014 Age 61 000 Age 101 Spanish men Spanish women 91 Men foreigners Women foreigners 81 71 51 41 31 1 11 Spanish men Men foreigners Source: Padrón de habitantes. 1 101 91 81 71 61 51 41 31 1 11 1 0 1 Spanish women Women foreigners 0 1 014
Improving signs in the residential market Housing development at historical lows After an intense phase of housing construction, typical of upward economic cycles in Spain, a downward trend has lasted for five years. Excessive housing stock along with weak demand have encumbered these figures and their expectations in the short and mid term. While in 008 the number of dwellings completed exceeded half a million units, in 014 the annual figure did not exceed forty thousand dwellings. But towards demand recovery The weak household growth in recent years (effective demand) together with the momentum of housing investment (investment demand) result in an incipient yet fragile rise of housing demand. This fact is reflected by an increase in the number of housing transactions: Until the fourth quarter of 014, the annual number of housing transactions amounted to 365,594, which means 65,06 more acquisitions over the previous year. At the same time, it is important to mention that such sales are justified by the greater dynamism of the second hand housing market compared to the stagnant new housing. In fact, 85 of total registered transactions occurred in the secondhand housing market. Graph 7 Annual number of dwellings started and completed in the free market Number of dwellings 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 00.000 100.000 Number of annual transactions by type of housing (new housing/second hand housing) in Spain Number of transactions Graph 8 1.00.000 1.000.000 800.000 600.000 400.000 00.000 14 14 14 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q Q 4Q 04 05 06 07 14 Dwellings started Dwellings completed New Housing Second Hand cousing Total Source: Ministry of Public Works. Source: Ministry of Public Works.
The price drop is bottoming out Demand recovery and low production levels are behind the slowdown in the decline of housing prices, both in the rental and the homeownership markets. However, it should be noted that the housing market is extremely segmented. Therefore, this changing trend of prices is mainly based on the attractiveness of specific residential assets located in prime areas, coastal locations or areas with potential revaluation. Graph 9 Quarterly variation of housing prices in Spain (rental market and homeownership market) 0,5 0 0,5,5,5 3 14 14 14 14 House to buy House to rent Source: Ministry of Public Works.
Average free housng price per province ( sqm) 4014 Average free housing price ( sqm) annual variation () per province 30133014 014 4Q Annual Variation 774 94 94 110 110 174 174 701 6,1 4,8 4,8,5,5 0, 0, 3,6 Provinces Average housing price ( sqm) Provinces Variation () average housing price ( sqm) 3Q 013 3Q 014 Guipúzcoa,70 Cantabria 3,6 Provinces with the highest price Vizcaya,369 Madrid,033 Álava 1,98 Provinces with the greatest positive variation Sta. Cruz de Tenerife,5 Cádiz,5 Baleares,4 Baleares 1,91 Málaga,4 Ciudad Real 774 Burgos 6, Provinces with the lowest price Jaen 786 Cuenca 801 Teruel 80 Provinces with the greatest negative variation Zamora 6,0 Ávila 6,0 Soria 5,8 Toledo 807 Segovia 5,8
Housing effective demand trends: the growth of rental housing to the detriment of homeownership The challenges still posed by labor and financial markets, the lack of confidence towards the property market and the end of tax relief have shifted demand for housing ownership towards the rental sector. Consequently, the weight of households living in rental housing has increased, resurfacing a traditionally weak tendency, and presenting new opportunities for residential investments. As reflected in graph 10, the weight of households living in rental housing at market prices went from 10 in 004 to 13 in 013. The question now is to determine to what extent these trends will continue or, if access to the property will rebound, and if so, when and with what intensity. Graph 10 Distribution of households by housing tenure in Spain. 004, 013 10 4 7 3 13 7 Homeownership Rental housing at market prices Rental housing below market prices Free transfer 79 78 Source: Survey of Living Conditions. Graph 11 Percentage of households renting at market prices per region. 004, 013 30 5 5,3 0 15 10 5 1,9 10,0 6,4 9,3 8,7 14,0 7,9 10,9 19,9 13,0 1,7 10,1 9,8 5,6 5, 7,1 11,3 16,5 14,7 11,0 11,7 7,0 7,6 6,3 10,5 1,9 17,9 13,8 10,0 9,7 11,5 7, 8,9 11,9 9, 13, 11,5 Nacional Andalucía Aragón Asturias Illes Balears Canarias Cantabria Castilla y León Castilla La Mancha Cataluña Valencia Extremadura Galicia Madrid Murcia Navarra País Vasco La Rioja Ceuta0 004 013 Source: Survey of Living Conditions.
Housing affordability indicators in steady decline Since the beginning of the crisis, housing affordability indicators have fallen in response to lower prices and declining mortgage interest rates. However, these favourable conditions are still affected by the tough requirements to access credit as well as households economic and employment difficulties. Nonetheless, as financial conditions improve, access to homeownership is expected to increase slightly. Graph 1 Spanish housing affordability indicators evolution (first home)* Graph 13 Average mortgage interest rates (over 3 years) to buy in the free housing market and Euribor evolution 35 30 5 0 15 10 5 5 4 3 1 009 010 011 01 013 ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul ene/jul 1999 000 001 00 003 004 005 006 007 008 009 010 011 01 013 014 Price/income ratio Housing affordability (1st home) Averatge mortage interest (over 3 years) Euribor Source: PwC analysis, Survey of Living Conditions, Spanish Mortgage Asociation and Bank of Spain. * Data refers to 1st January of each year. Source: Spanish Mortgage Asociation (AHE).
Emerging forms of living: smaller and diverse household typologies Demographic, labor and social changes are reflected in the forms of cohabitation, in such a way that, household size is increasingly smaller and household composition increasingly diverse. Therefore, households which have gained greater importance in recent years are one and two person households. These patterns are clearly in line with the increase of new family forms, composed by one person, single parent families and couples without children. This transformation of household typologies, to the detriment of the traditional nuclear family, is of great relevance for planning future residential developments and for processes of rehabilitation and renovation that are already taking place. This is because household changes involve new and growing demands that affect tenure, dwelling size and amenities not just related to the interior space but also to the environment where it is located. Graph 14 Graph 15 Number of households by number of people living in them in Spain Changes in household typologies in Spain. 001, 011 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000.000 1.000 00 TIV 005 TIV 008 TIV 011 TIV 014 TIV 45 40 35 30 5 0 15 10 5 3, 0,3 One person household 1,0 1,4 Unrelated persons...,8 1,9 Non nuclear family 9,4 8,1 Lone parent family 1,0 17,3 Couple without children 39,1 35,0 Couple with children 11,5 8, +households/ other... 1 3 4 5+ 001 011 Source: EPA. Source: Census 001, 011
Residential trends, expectations and opportunities What?, Who?, Where?, How much? The Spanish labor market and subsequent financial difficulties still raise significant challenges to the real estate sector. However, the path to economic recovery and its gradual strengthening draw an incipient turnaround that stimulates demand and residential investment. This is reflected by an upturn in transactions and a recovery of housing prices. Background Although further measures are required in the longterm, the economic recovery could help counteract residential real estate setbacks arising from population decline. The imbalance between housing supply and demand, generated by excessive production, restricts the possibilities of new residential developments to attractive locations in major cities or along the coast line. Urban rehabilitation and renewal will remain the main areas of action over the coming years. Supply Spain s aging population introduces new investment opportunities that require implementation of strategic mechanisms to understand and respond to these changes. Housing renovation and mobility caused by growing appetite for more suitable services are now common demands among the elderly. In the short term, a slight increase of housing demand is expected due to the increase in the number of households, the rise of an effective demand constrained by the crisis and a surge of investments. However, in the mid and long term, strong demand growth is not expected due to continued population decline. Persistent difficulties of households have boosted a weakened rental market, leading to a wider range of investment opportunities previously uncommon in Spain. As access to credit improves in the coming years, an upturn in housing demand for purchase is expected. However, it will be a slight increase given the factors that are driving growth in the rental market: tax relief suppression, increased labour mobility, and the emergence of new family forms and their respective residential needs. Demand Aging population, diversification in the forms of living and gradual reduction of household size imply major changes in housing demand and residential preferences. According to these changes, smaller housing suited to needs and located in a central area are gaining relevance.
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