2015 Winter Holiday Wrap Up www.kantarmedia.com
Outline 1. Introduction 2. Retail Ad Spending Top Advertisers; Media Mix; Timing of Spend; Message Strategies 3. Digital - Paid Search 4. Social Media Performance 5. Online Shopping Traffic 6. Summary 2
The Most Wonderful Time of the Year? November and December are high-stakes months for retailers 20% of full year sales 25% of annual ad spending Navigating the ever-shifting retail landscape The demanding digital shopper Managing the omnichannel shopping experience Creating an effective advertising strategy Cutting through the clutter Budget size, media mix, timing, messages, etc 3
Data Provided by Kantar Companies and Reporting Partners 4
Paid Ad Spend 5
The Billionaires Club Total Holiday Ad Spend (Billions) All Categories $28.36 Retail $4.33 Automotive $3.11 Telecom $1.63 Financial Services $1.36 Pharmaceuticals $1.35 Insurance $1.21 Restaurants $1.10 Source: Kantar Media 6
Retail Spending By Segment Ad Spend (Millions) Holiday 2015 % Change Total Retail $4,331 1.5% Department Stores $1,116-5.5% Home & Building $880 10.1% Apparel $759 0.0% Food & Drug $369-0.9% All Other $1,049-3.0% Source: Kantar Media 7
Media Mix Gaining Share Holiday 2015 Share Point Gain vs YAG TV 49.2% +2.7% Digital 24.0% +1.0% Losing Share Holiday 2015 Share Point Loss vs YAG Newspaper 14.7% -3.1% Magazine 5.4% -1.0% Radio 5.4% +0.2% Outdoor 1.3% +0.2% Source: Kantar Media 8
Top 10 Retail Advertisers 2015 Holiday Ad Spend (MM) Retailer % Change vs. 2014 $4,331 Total $249 $239 $170 $159 $113 $96 $92 $79 $73 $66 Source: Kantar Media 1.5% -3.1% -8.1% -11.0% 117.8% 9.7% -7.7% -6.1% -4.8% -24.7% 11.9% 9
When and How Did Retailers Spend? 10
Timing Of Ad Spend January 2016 Pre-Thanksgiving Thanksgiving Week Post-Thanksgiving 11
Budget Distribution Throughout Holiday Season Department Stores/Mass Merchandisers All Retailers 34% 14% 52% Target Neutral 33% 16% 50% $170 mm Kohls 35% 17% 48% $113 mm Walmart Back Loaded 29% 17% 54% $249 mm Macys 23% 12% 65% $239 mm Amazon 28% 13% 59% $159 mm JC Penney 28% 17% 55% $96 mm 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pre-Thanksgiving (Nov 2-22) Week of Thanksgiving (Nov 23-29) Post Thanksgiving (Nov 30-Jan 3) Source: Kantar Media 12
Budget Distribution Throughout Holiday Season All Retailers 34% 14% 52% Front Loaded Best Buy 44% 7% 48% $79 mm Home Depot 44% 15% 41% $73 mm Thanksgiving Week Kay Jewelers 33% 20% 48% $92 mm Jared 37% 18% 46% $66 mm Lowes 34% 20% 46% $53 mm 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Pre-Thanksgivinvg (Nov 2-222) Week of Thanksgiving (Nov 23-29) Post Thanksgiving Wk (Nov 30-Jan 3) Source: Kantar Media 13
2015 Holiday Season Media Mix All Retail All Spending 100% TV 49% Digital 24% Newspaper 15% Radio 5% Magazine 5% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 76% 60% 96% 93% 75% 18% 28% 4% 2% 15% 2% 8% -- -- 4% 1% 1% -- 5% 5% 4% 2% -- -- -- Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding Source: Kantar Media 13
2015 Holiday Season Media Mix All Retail All Spending 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% TV 49% 29% 40% 55% 52% Digital 24% 66% 10% 18% 22% Newspaper 15% 2% 39% 2% 6% Radio 5% 1% 6% 21% 9% Magazine 5% 1% 5% 4% 10% Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding Source: Kantar Media 14
Post-Christmas TV spending continues past Christmas Fewer advertisers On Sale messaging Smaller budget advertisers re-emerge Amazon Prime video Mozart In The Jungle original series Macys Amazon Victoria Secret Sleep Number Sears TV Spend: Dec 28 - Jan 3 % of Total Holiday TV $ 35% 29% 11% 14% 14% $0 $5 $10 $15 Millions Source: Kantar Media 16
Message Strategy 17
On Sale Ad Messages Select Retailers % Of Holiday Spending* 80% 70% 70% 65% 64% 60% 50% 55% 49% 40% 37% 30% 20% 15% 14% 10% 0% 6% 3% 0% * Analysis Base excludes these media: Paid Search, National Newspapers, Network Radio and Outdoor Source: Kantar Media 18
On Sale Ad Messages as Percentage of Weekly Ad Spending Select Retailers 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% Macys Target Home Depot Kay 10% 0% 11/9 11/16 11/23 11/30 12/7 12/14 12/21 12/28 Week Beginning: Source: Kantar Media 19
Loyalty/Rewards Select Retailers % of Holiday Spending Advertiser Loyalty/ Rewards 56% 30% 17% 15% Macys Holiday Commercial 12% 12% Source: Kantar Media 20
Online Shopping Messages Select Retailers Kohls 52% Macys 26% Best Buy 23% Walmart 21% Target 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% % Of Holiday Ad Spend 2015 Kantar Media 21
Celebrity Ad Appearances 22
Paid Search 23
Paid Search Insights Powered by Adgooroo, a Kantar Media company Summary data available through Kantar Media Ad Intelligence as part our multimedia reporting Google text ads delivered to desktops/tablets Top 20,000 advertisers Monthly spend; estimated clicks for top keywords 2015 Kantar Media 24
Google Desktop/Tablet Text Ads Top Retailers Holiday Ad Spend (MM) Retailer % Change vs. Year Ago $76.2 28.1% $29.9 12.5% $27.3-5.4% $20.9 47.0% $17.5 19.0% Source: Kantar Media analysis of Adgooroo data 25
Google Desktop/Tablet Text Ads Top Retailers Holiday Ad Spend (MM) Retailer % Change vs. Year Ago $76.2 28.1% $29.9 12.5% $27.3-5.4% $20.9 47.0% $17.5 19.0% $16.3-12.5% $15.0 3.6% $10.6-23.1% $9.9-4.0% $9.3 38.7% Source: Kantar Media analysis of Adgooroo data 26
Black Friday Weekend Key shopping weekend, in-store and online Consumers are researching products, stores and offers A highly competitive period for paid search advertising 27
Paid Search During Black Friday Weekend Analysis Outline Research partner: Adgooroo Analysis period: Black Friday to Cyber Monday (Nov 27-30) Google text ads on desktop/tablet Three keywords groups 2500 Top Retail Product Keywords 161 Black Friday-Related Keywords 103 Cyber Monday-Related Keywords 28
Top Retail Product Keywords November 27-30 Share of Ad Clicks $18.2 million of spending by 2,400+ advertisers 8% 6.8% Top keywords include: 6% 4.4% iphone6 laptops 4% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% samsung galaxy 6 fitbit 2% engagement rings uggs 0% Source: Adgooroo 29
Millions Black Friday Related Keywords Share of Ad Clicks: Nov 27-30 Paid Search Spend 15% $12 $10 $8 $10.3 10% 10.9% 10.0% 8.0% 7.4% 7.1% $6 $4 $3.7 5% $2 $0 Sep 27-Nov 21 Nov 27-30 0% Source: Adgooroo 30
Millions Cyber Monday Related Keywords Share of Ad Clicks: Nov 27-30 Paid Search Spend 15% $3 12.3% 11.7% 10.7% $2 $1.8 10% 9.4% 9.2% $1 $0.6 5% $0 Sep 27-Nov 21 Nov 27-30 0% Source: Adgooroo 31
Social Media 32
Capturing and Converting Social Media Audiences Owned Media: branded content that marketers publish through their own accounts Data analysis partner: Unmetric Owned Media activity on Facebook and Twitter Volume of postings and quality of engagement Time Period: Nov 16 - Dec 27 33
Mass Merchandisers Department Stores Home Improvement Stores Specialty Retailers 34
# of Brand Posts Weekly Publishing Volume Peaks At Thanksgiving 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Thanksgiving Week Twitter Facebook 0 11/16 11/23 11/30 12/7 12/14 12/21 Week Beginning Date Source: Unmetric 35
% Of Posts % Of Tweets 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Promoted Tweets Avg = 23% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Promoted Posts Avg = 37% Source: Unmetric 36
Why Brands Pay To Promote Social Content Pay To Play Targeted Reach Better Engagement 37
UNMETRIC ENGAGEMENT SCORE Avg. Score Promoted Posts 13 Retailers Avg. Score Promoted 376 Organic 33 Top 3 Bottom 3 919 447 421 119 51 45 Source: Unmetric 38
UNMETRIC ENGAGEMENT SCORE Avg. Score All Tweets 13 Retailers Avg. Score Promoted 96 Organic 102 Top 4 Bottom 3 387 152 149 58 43 32 135 Source: Unmetric 39
Content Strategies For Success Examples of High Engagement Posts Holiday Decorations Special Events Merchandise 40
Content Strategies For Success Special Events Star Wars Theme College Football Awards Holiday Giving Black Friday Deals Make-a-Wish Foundation 41
Contests & Sweepstakes 42
UNMETRIC ENGAGEMENT SCORE Kohls Other 226 Sweepstakes 996 Home Depot Other 109 Football Awards 587 Old Navy Other 88 Sweepstakes 452 Macy's Other 79 Parade 383 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Engagement Score Source: Unmetric 43
E-traffic: Capturing Online Shoppers 44
How Do Consumers Allocate Their Online Shopping Time? Kantar Media partnered with Millward Brown Digital Examined data from The Compete Panel Reports on websites visited and amount of time spent Time Period: Nov 2 Dec 31 Universe of 147 shopping sites Share of Attention metric = Time spent on individual e-tail sites Total time on all 147 shopping sites 45
Index Online Shopping Spikes At Thanksgiving (And On Weekends) 180 Average Daily % Reach 147 Shopping Sites 160 140 120 100 80 60 T giving Week 40 20 0 11/2 11/9 11/16 11/23 11/30 12/7 12/14 12/21 12/28 Source: Millward Brown Digital 46
Top 5 Retail Shopping Sites: Dec 2015 Rank Site % Share of Attention 1 30.8% 2 10.1% 3 3.1% 4 1.7% 5 1.7% Source: Millward Brown Digital 47
Attention Through The Holiday Season Index of Attention Share Site Norm Nov 2-25 Nov 26-30 Dec 1-24 Dec 25-31 100 76 151 111 110 100 81 180 105 89 100 79 225 99 82 100 89 207 89 99 100 67 233 103 108 100 74 220 105 86 100 70 250 102 89 100 79 191 96 123 Source: Millward Brown Digital 48
Attracting Millennial and Affluent Shoppers Millennials (Age 18-34) Approaching peak earning years View shopping as entertainment; browse vs. buy Desire for convenience and immediacy One-third shop online 3+ times per month* Affluents (HH Income $100k+) Current spending power Consumption is becoming more purposeful Justify spending based on its worth rather than price One-third shop online 3+ times per month* *Source: Kantar Media, TGI 49
Attracting Millennial and Affluent Shoppers Segmenting Online Shopping Sites Below average concentration Above average concentration 18-34 years old Below average concentration Above average concentration HH Income $100k+ 50
Index: HHI $100k+ Demo Appeal of Select Shopping Sites 200 175 Saks Neiman Marcus December 2015 Bloomingdales J Crew 150 Zappos Anthropologie Nordstrom Uniqlo 125 Macy s Gap Sephora 100 Sears Target Best Buy Ikea 75 JC Penney Walmart Amazon Etsy 50 50 75 100 125 150 175 Index: Age 18-34 Source: Millward Brown Digital 51
Summary 2014 52 Kantar Media
2015 Holiday Advertising Summary Ad Spending Higher spend (+1.5%) from retail category, but 7 of top 10 advertisers cut budgets TV and digital gained share of spend from newspapers and magazines Variations by retailer in their media mix and timing of spend through the season Volume of on sale ad messaging reflected the prevalence of discounting Paid Search Top retailer s digital ad budgets were concentrated in paid search Amazon, Target and JC Penney had high click share on Thanksgiving/BF weekend Cyber Monday losing potency 53
2015 Holiday Advertising Summary Social Media (FB & Twitter) Winners: Nordstrom, Macy s, Lowes (FB) and Kohl s (Twitter) Promoted posts generate higher engagement scores Brands replicated content strategies on each platform and played to their strengths Online Shopping Time Amazon s dominant share of online shopping time Thanksgiving weekend is a larger stimulus for runner up brands Attracting millennial shoppers specialty sites and luxury department stores are making inroads 54
To learn more about how Kantar Media s insights can help you drive to success, just contact our team: Competitive Advertising Insights Libby MacDonald P: 404.801.3744 libby.macdonald@kantarmedia.com Search & Digital Marketing Research Kali Whiting P: 312.725.1809 kwhiting@adgooroo.com Digital Intelligence Dina Kuhn P: 203.330.5176 dina.kuhn@millwardbrown.com www.kantarmedia.com 55