Digital Promotions Drive Holiday Shopping Early print and online promotions impact purchase behavior

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1 Ad Dynamics Perspective TM Digital Promotions Drive Holiday Shopping Early print and online promotions impact purchase behavior Digital disruption it s the phrase that may best sum up the 2011 Holiday Shopping Season. Now that the dust has settled and sales numbers are in, the big story from the Holiday Shopping Season (HSS) is centered around the early start to the season and the added boost that retailers got from online sales. Much of the growth can be attributed to retailers and manufacturers leveraging additional mediums to reach shoppers with digital promotions through complementary and supplementary strategies. The promotional landscape is increasing in complexity, with consumers accessing multiple sources of information when it comes to sales and pricing. Having visibility into all types of promotions that they are encountering across print and digital is critical to success. In This Article Ad Dynamics takes a look at the promotional landscape across the Holiday Shopping Season and how retailers and manufacturers leveraged the various contributing factors to performance: Promotional volume in print and online on a week by week basis and by retailer class The increase/decrease of share of voice (SOV) for key departments including Computers, Electronics, Small Appliances and Entertainment Comparison across of department SOV across print and online: total circular/total website and flyer front page/ website home page Retailers and manufacturers are facing an influx of foreign competitors, weak consumer sentiment and decreased consumer buying power. In spite of these conditions, during the HSS there were mixed reviews in terms of sales numbers, with the most notable increase occurring in online sales. A report from Canada s largest debit and credit card processor, Moneris Solutions, indicated online sales increased by 14.2% in the fourth quarter when compared to November posted the greatest increase in online spending at 20.1%, largely due to the success of Cyber Monday. While the majority of shoppers still utilize flyers to plan their shopping trips, more and more they are also doing research on prices and product features online and some are even making purchases in certain categories. Many retailers are leveraging additional opportunities to influence consumers through multiple mediums during the critical 0-7 days prior to purchase. Overall, Canadian consumer spending continued to rise at the end of the year, with an increase of 5.8% in the fourth quarter of 2011, compared to the same period in 2010, according to Moneris report. An increased focus on promotions earlier in the season appears to have made an impact, with a 6.2% increase in spending in November, while December only increased 5.6%. Holiday promotions started earlier this year in an attempt to keep consumers from crossing the border to the US to do their

2 Figure 1: Black Friday vs Boxing Day Promotional Activity Holiday themed flyers week of 11/6 shopping. Increasingly retailers are adjusting their strategies to participate in US events such as Black Friday and Cyber Monday, pulling the season forward. A survey by the Bank of Montreal indicated nearly 18% of Canadians said they planned to shop in the US during the Holiday Shopping Season. Crossborder shopping is made attractive to Canadian consumers due to lower prices in the US and the strength of the loonie. At Canadian cents per US dollar in 2011, this is the highest annual value observed since 1976, when it traded at cents according to MarketWatch. In regard to volume of promotions across the season, both the number of flyers being sent into the market and the number of pages per flyer hit their highest point around Black Friday (see Figure 1). On a week to week view, there was an 18% increase in page counts the week of Black Friday, and a 30% increase in number of flyers. This clearly demonstrates the importance that is being placed on capturing the shopper early in the season, as opposed to taking the chance later in the season that they will still be motivated to make purchases and have money to do so. Relative to the number of flyers, the number of pages significantly decreases prior to Boxing Day sales, with a 47% drop in week to week page counts the week of Boxing Day, and an 11% drop in number of flyers. Flyers per market Pages per market 11/13/11 & 11/20/11 12/11/11 & 12/18/11 11/13/11 & 11/20/11 12/11/11 & 12/18/11 Figure 2: Promotional Activity Two Weeks Prior to Event 2 Ad Dynamics Perspective TM

3 When comparing the two weeks leading up to Black Friday to the two weeks leading up to Boxing day, from a retailer class perspective the strategy of Mass merchandisers follows this overall pattern of decreased page counts and number of flyers (see Figure 2). However, Electronics retailers show the opposite trend. There were15% fewer ads on average for Mass as opposed to a 30% increase for Electronics retailers. Overall, there were 52% fewer pages on average for Mass versus 32% more pages for Electronics retailers as the event approached. Mass appears to be trying to capture consumers earlier in the holiday season while Electronics retailers are counting on consumers waiting until later to do their holiday shopping. Typically consumers tend to make larger purchases such as Electronics earlier in the season when they have more to spend. Promoting big ticket items at the beginning of the HSS will appeal to consumers who are looking for early deals. Additionally, there is a higher propensity to spend gift cards and cash gifts during the Boxing Day event. Consider promoting items at price points that correspond with common gift card denominations to appeal to shoppers who have received these types of gifts. Three different approaches We observed overall decreases in page counts by the general market during the holiday season, but not in equal amounts across all retailers. Share of promotional pages is a measure that indicates the volume of promotions when compared to other retailers in the market that are competing for shoppers attention and share of wallet. Best Buy produced virtually the same number of pages per market for the entire 8 week holiday shopping season. They maintained a 7.9% share of promotional pages except for the week before Boxing Day when they published only a quarter Digital Promotions Consumers are increasingly connected and are constantly interacting with messaging from retailers and manufacturers through the digital channel. The agile nature of digital promotions lends itself to being extremely conducive for quick response. Whether it s a competitive price situation or changes in the economic climate, digital promotions can be a powerful tool in reacting and responding in a timely fashion. Being aware of what is being promoted and featured across all media types is critical in fully understanding the reach of your message and if there are competing offers being promoted in other mediums. Manufacturers need to be aware of conflicting messaging across mediums that could be diminishing the impact of their promotions. One example of this type of channel conflict was Best Buy s Boxing Day Ad on 12/30, when comparing what is featured on their homepage and in their flyer. Their homepage features a Samsung 40 LED TV for $699, whereas their flyer features a Sharp 42 for $399 and a 50 LG for $499. There is an Acer laptop on the homepage at $399, while on their flyer they are featuring two HP laptops at $349 and $399 and a Samsung laptop for $429. Encourage retail partners to stagger competing-brand promotions in different media to provide maximum lift. There were other interesting tactics that were promoted on retailers homepages during the HSS Real Canadian Superstore promoted their price match promise and Sears promoted their one day We Pay the Tax sale. The homepage of your website is an ideal place to introduce special sales or to call out other differentiators prominently. The Power of Market Intelligence 3

4 Figure 3: Department SOV of their normal flyer size. Their share of promotional pages was cut in half to 3.9%. Sears varied the number of pages per week, peaking the week of Black Friday with flyer page counts that almost doubled their seasonal average. During this week they had 16.6% share of promotional pages. However, like Best Buy, they also cut the number of pages produced the week before Boxing Day (down to a third of their seasonal average). And like Best Buy their share of promotional pages dropped by 1.5% points to 8.8%. Canadian Tire tried a different approach. As in the case of Sears, they increased the number of pages during Black Friday week by 44% and their share rose to 9.2% (0.8% points higher than their seasonal average). However, their page cuts the week prior to Boxing Day were not as severe as most retailers (down 17% from seasonal averages). As a result their share of promotional pages rose to 14.7%, a full 6.2% points higher than their seasonal average. This increased their presence in the market place during a time when there is less competition for the shopper s attention. Be aware of what messages are hitting the consumer and look for opportunities to capitalize on low volume timeframes to get additional exposure to your message. Leverage the opportunity to expand the impact of your messages in the market place by promoting more heavily during those weeks when there is less competition for the shopper s attention. Department SOV Across the entire season, Electronics led all departments from a SOV perspective in both print and online. This was further enhanced by the prevalence of Tablets and E-Readers this year. Interestingly, there was a very low emphasis placed on Toys & Games on retailers web sites and in print when pure play Toys & Games retailers such as Toys R Us are removed from the comparison (see Figure 3). Also surprising was the lack of presence in either print or online for Apparel when looking at both front page and total circular. On the Front Page for print, Major Appliances became a significant department during the HSS. Are retailers counting on a less pragmatic consumer this holiday season by promoting larger ticket items that are not necessities? When comparing what is featured on retailers home pages, the top three departments have almost two thirds of the SOV with Electronics being featured almost 40% of the time. Consider varying your message across mediums to target the audience that is most likely to be utilizing that source. For example, since Baby Boomers are the heaviest users of print and have the most discretionary income, focus your message around items that would be appealing to them in your flyer. For Gen X and Millenials, consider who they might be buying gifts for and target those messages through the digital channel. Be aware that many shoppers are utilizing multiple inputs in Figure 4: Department SOV Trend Comparison Print vs Online 4 Ad Dynamics Perspective TM

5 About Ad Dynamics Ad Dynamics is a market intelligence firm dedicated to increasing our customers returns on their promotional investments. Through innovative technology and marketplace expertise, we monitor and analyze over 200 U.S. and Canadian markets for every channel of trade in order to provide retailers and manufacturers with superior tools to monitor promotional activity, support dynamic decision making and turn information into market intelligence. making purchase decisions, so devising a cohesive strategy across all mediums is important. Also consider the ease of comparison to US retailers and propensity of shoppers to buy products from certain departments online, and be sure your offers are compelling and timely. When comparing what is being promoted across the season, it is clear that print strategies are well defined and deliberate (see Figure 4). In print, Electronics SOV starts the HSS at just over 15% and rises through the season to peak at 24% in early December. Conversely, entertainment starts and finishes high but dips in the middle when most big dollar purchases are made. Similar patterns are followed across the top promoted departments for the most part. However, the online channel shows surprisingly little variation across the timeframe, which mirrors the online promotional activity in the US as well. Are retailers missing an opportunity to incorporate the learnings online that they have gained through print? Understand the buying patterns of consumers and the impact of timing in promoting different departments. Vary promoted items in print and digital to reach different demographics. Pricing Pricing is a key consideration when thinking about how to most effectively capture the consumer s attention during this timeframe. In a direct comparison based on model, Black Friday prices were compared to Boxing Day sales. Despite the deeper discounting that is occurring during Boxing Day, the promotional activity as measured by volume of pages is drastically cut. On average Boxing Day prices were 10% lower. In addition, 38% of products were promoted at prices that were more than 15% lower on Boxing Day. Less than 10% of compared products were priced higher on Boxing Day, making it clear that retailers were trying to capture consumers with the best deals during what has traditionally been one of the biggest events during the holiday period. It is interesting that the volume of promotions does not follow the same pattern, with significant decreases occurring leading up to Boxing Day. Summary There were many contributing factors to the outcome of HSS 2011 the largest of which being promotions across multiple mediums driving consumer s purchase decisions in an increasingly meaningful way. In order to navigate the promotional landscape successfully, it is imperative that you have visibility into all mediums to gain an accurate picture of what is creating an impact. Key Takeaways Use time to your advantage: promote during times when there is less competition for the consumer s attention. Leverage cross promotion opportunities across various mediums to increase the exposure of your message. Understand consumer behavior promote categories and departments according to people s buying tendencies. Promote larger ticket items earlier in the season when people have more discretionary income and target last minute shoppers with messaging that focuses on end of season categories like media and games or the last minute male shopper looking for jewelry. Manufacturers need to be aware of what their retail partners are promoting across all mediums to fully understand the reach of their message and if there are competing offers being promoted in other channels. Encourage retail partners to stagger competing-brand promotions in different media to provide maximum lift. Leverage the agility of digital promotions to combat competitive situations or developments in the economy that may require a course correction in strategy. Ensure your message is reaching the appropriate audience through understanding demographic patterns for each medium. Learn More For more insight into the entire promotional landscape or an analysis of your digital and print strategies, call Ad Dynamics at or perspectives@addynamics.com Ad Dynamics. All rights reserved.

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