Texas Population Growth, Projections, and Implications Maya Halebic, M.B.A. Senior Economist MARCH 2012 Questions or comments concerning this publication shall be directed to Maya Halebic at mayah@sahcc.org, (210) 208-8212.
The Shifting Demography of Texas 2 Rich natural resources, abundant land, a central location within the United States and a business-friendly environment have long attracted both immigrants and U.S. natives to Texas. As a result, the state s population is faster growing, younger and more diverse than the nation s. These rapid demographic changes present challenges for the future. [ ] Hispanics, already a dominant force in Texas, are expected to become the majority population group by 2020. The significant increase in this population (both immigrant and native) has far-reaching implications for education, housing and the labor force. D Ann Petersen and Laila Assanie, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas
3 Population and Population Change in Texas, 1950-2010 Table 1 TEXAS Change in Population Year Population Numerical Percent 1940 6,414,824 - - 1950 7,711,194 1,296,370 20.21% 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 24.23% 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 16.88% 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 27.08% 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 19.38% 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 22.76% 2010 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.59% Source: U.S. Census Bureau According to the 2010 Census, Texas has a total population of 25,145,561. From 2000 to 2010, the total population of the state of Texas increased by 4,293,741 persons, from 20,851,820 in 2000 to 25,145,561 in 2010. Thus, the total population grew by 20.59%. Over the past 50, the greatest population growth was recorded for the period 1970-1980. Driven primarily by the Texas oil boom, the state s total population grew by 27.08% during this time period.
4 Population and Population Change in the United States, 1950-2010 Table 2 UNITED STATES Change in Population Year Population Numerical Percent 1940 131,669,275 - - 1950 150,697,361 19,028,086 14.45% 1960 179,323,175 28,625,814 19.00% 1970 203,302,031 23,978,856 13.37% 1980 226,545,805 23,243,774 11.43% 1990 248,709,873 22,164,068 9.78% 2000 281,421,906 32,712,033 13.15% 2010 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.71% Source: U.S. Census Bureau Based on the 2010 Census, the United States has a total population of 308,745,538. From 2000 to 2010, the nation s total population grew by 27,323,632 persons, from 281,421,906 in 2000 to 308,745,538 in 2010. Thus, the total population of the United States grew by 9.71%. Over the past 50, the greatest population growth was recorded for the period 1950-1960, mainly driven by the baby boomers. During this time period, the nation s total population rose by 19.00%.
5 Texas and U.S. Population Growth, 1970-2000 Annual Growth Rate Figure 1 3.00% Since the 1970s, Texas has grown faster than the nation. 2.50% 2.00% 2.43% 1.79% 2.07% 1.89% During the Texas oil boom of the 1970s, Texas more than doubled the nation s population growth. 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 1.09% 0.94% 1.24% 0.93% Even with the late-2000s financial crisis, the state s population grew by 1.89% annually, increasing almost twice as fast as the nation s. 0.00% 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 Source: U.S. Census Bureau Texas U.S. The state s historically high birth rates and a strong pace of net migration have contributed to a growing population (see Table 3 in the next slide).
6 Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2009 Table 3 Year* Population Total Increase Natural Increase** Net Migration*** Percent Change Percent Change Due To Natural Increase Net Migration 1950 7,711,194 - - - - - - 1960 9,579,677 1,868,483 1,754,652 113,831 24.23% 93.91% 6.09% 1970 11,196,730 1,617,053 1,402,683 214,370 16.88% 86.74% 13.26% 1980 14,229,191 3,032,461 1,260,794 1,771,667 27.08% 41.58% 58.42% 1990 16,986,510 2,757,319 1,815,670 941,649 19.38% 65.85% 34.15% 2000 20,851,820 3,865,310 1,919,281 1,946,029 22.76% 49.65% 50.35% 2009 24,782,302 3,930,482 2,124,124 1,806,358 18.85% 54.04% 45.96% * All values for the decennial dates are for the indicated census year. Values for 2009 are for July 1 as estimated by the U.S. Census Bureau. ** Natural increase is defined as births less deaths. *** Net migration is defined as the total number of immigrants less the annual number of emigrants, including both citizens and noncitizens. Source: U.S. Census Bureau
7 Growth of the Foreign-Born Population, 1990-2000 and 2000-2009 Figure 2 200.00% 180.00% 160.00% 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% 57.37% 23.82% 90.21% Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center 37.43% 175.09% 45.86% 130.76% 10.87% 77.74% 24.78% 52.69% 35.40% U.S. Texas Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio 1990-2000 2000-2009 The foreign-born population share in Texas rose significantly during the 1990s. Thus, from 1990 to 2000, the foreign-born population in the state rose by 90.21%. In comparison, the foreign-born population at the national level increased by 57.37% during this time period. During the 1990s, Austin, among all major Texas metropolitan areas, experienced the largest relative increase of the foreign-born population, well above the state average of 90.21%. Of Texas major metros, Houston (77.74%) and San Antonio (52.69%) recorded foreign-born growth rates below the state average. Shares of the foreign-born in the U.S., Texas, and in the major metros are shown in Figure 3 in the next slide.
8 Share of the Foreign-Born Population, 1990, 2000, and 2009 Figure 3 30.0% 25.0% 24.8% 24.4% 28.5% 26.4% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 7.9% 12.5% 11.1% 20.2% 16.1% 16.6% 13.9% 9.0% 8.5% 12.5% 17.8% 9.4% 13.2% 11.7% 5.0% 0.0% Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center U.S. Texas Austin Dallas Houston San Antonio 1990 2000 2009
Texas Population by Race and Ethnicity, 9 1980-2010 Figure 4 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 White 9,350,297 10,291,680 11,074,716 11,397,345 Black 1,692,542 1,976,360 2,421,653 2,886,825 Hispanic 2,985,824 4,339,905 6,669,666 9,460,921 Other 200,528 378,565 685,785 1,400,470 Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center Over the past three decades, Texas population has changed much in regard to its racial and ethnic background. While the number of Whites and Blacks has experienced only slight increases over the period 1980-2010, the number of the state s Hispanics has seen considerable growth. From 2000 to 2010, Texas Hispanic population increased by 41.85%, while the state s White and Black population grew by 2.91% and 19.21%, respectively. Shares of the Texas population by race and ethnicity are shown in Figure 5 in the next slide.
10 Share of the Texas Population by Race and Ethnicity, 1980-2010 Figure 5 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 65.71% 20.98% Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center 60.59% 25.55% 53.11% 31.99% 45.33% 11.89% 11.63% 11.61% 11.48% 1.41% 2.23% 3.29% 37.62% 1980 1990 2000 2010 White Black Hispanic Other 5.57% During the time period 1980-2010, the share of Texas White population has fallen, while the share of the Hispanic population has significantly increased. The share of the state s Black population has remained rather constant. The strong rise in Texas Hispanic population has far-reaching implications. Hispanics higher-than-average birth rate, which drives the growth in this population, suggests that this group will continue to grow at a more rapid pace than that of Whites and Blacks. Additionally, Hispanics, on average, are younger, which has ramifications for housing, education, and the work force. In 2010, the median age of Hispanics in Texas was 26.7 versus 40.9 for Texas Whites. This compares with the median age for all Texans of 33.4 and for the United States of 36.9.
Projected Proportion of Texas Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2040 11 Figure 6 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2010 2020 2030 2040 White 45.33% 42.12% 37.04% 32.23% Black 11.48% 10.90% 10.27% 9.52% Hispanic 37.62% 42.43% 47.56% 52.58% Other 5.57% 4.55% 5.13% 5.67% Note: Assuming net migration rate is half that of 1990-2000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center Texas population will change in two major ways over the next several decades: in diversity and in age. According to estimates by the Texas State Data Center, by 2020, Hispanics will make up the majority of the state s population, while Whites will fall to the second-most-populous ethnicity. By 2040, Hispanics will account for over 50% of all Texans. Large disparities mark socioeconomic conditions among Texas racial and ethnic groups. Compared with their White counterparts, the state s Hispanics tend to have lower levels of education (see Figure 7), have lower wages (see Figure 8), and depend more on state services. This is partly a result of immigration. Without changes in socioeconomic conditions, this suggests that Texas future population could be less educated, less competitive, poorer, and more in need of state services.
12 Educational Attainment by Race and Ethnicity Among Population 25 Years or Older in Texas, 2010 Figure 7 Graduate degree Bachelor's degree Associate's degree Some college, no degree GED or alternative credential Regular high school diploma 9th to 12th grade, no diploma Less than 9th grade Source: U.S. Census Bureau 3.16% 11.13% 8.14% 22.71% 4.55% 7.11% 17.27% 25.53% 5.03% 4.66% 20.40% 20.57% 16.31% 5.92% 25.15% 2.35% 0.00% 5.00% 10.00% 15.00% 20.00% 25.00% 30.00% Hispanic White Much of the education disparity in Texas is due to rapid Hispanic immigration into the state: immigrants income and education levels tend to be much lower than natives. According to the Texas State Data Center, Hispanics are expected to make up the majority of the labor force in Texas by 2040. If the education disparity between Whites and Hispanics continues, the state economy could face several important challenges. First, by 2040, about 30% of the Texas labor force will not have a high school diploma, up from 19% in 2000. If that occurs, a higher percentage of Texas labor force would be less educated and low skilled, potentially making the state economy less competitive. Second, empirical studies show that low education levels are associated with lower income levels. Thus, failure to complete high school or college negatively impacts average earnings.
Per Capita Income by Race and Ethnicity 13 in Texas, 2010 Figure 8 $40,000 $35,000 $34,826 The existing income differential between Whites and Hispanics could lead to a large share of Texans being drawn into poverty in the future. $30,000 $25,000 $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 $0 White Note: All data are in 2010 inflation-adjusted dollars. Source: U.S. Census Bureau $14,169 Hispanic According to the Texas State Data Center, the percentage of households with annual incomes of $25,000 or less is projected to increase from 31% (in 2000) to 38% by 2040. Furthermore, the share of families with earnings exceeding $100,000 will fall from 12% to 9%. The net impact could be a decline in real income, reduced tax revenue per household, and increased burden on the state government to pay for welfare services in Texas. As Texas is likely to depend progressively more on Hispanic Texans for future tax revenues, it is important to lessen the existing income gap and educational differential between Hispanics and Non-Hispanics.
Projected Proportion of Austin-Round Rock Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2040 14 Figure 9 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2010 2020 2030 2040 White 54.68% 52.22% 47.85% 43.41% Black 7.02% 7.39% 6.98% 6.53% Hispanic 31.36% 35.28% 39.60% 44.02% Other 6.93% 5.10% 5.57% 6.04% Note: Assuming net migration rate is half that of 1990-2000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center
Projected Proportion of Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2040 15 Figure 10 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2010 2020 2030 2040 White 50.25% 47.10% 40.99% 35.23% Black 14.78% 13.27% 12.40% 11.34% Hispanic 27.50% 33.42% 39.70% 45.91% Other 7.47% 6.21% 6.91% 7.52% Note: Assuming net migration rate is half that of 1990-2000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center
Projected Proportion of Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2040 16 Figure 11 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2010 2020 2030 2040 White 39.69% 36.26% 30.65% 25.48% Black 16.80% 15.19% 13.92% 12.53% Hispanic 35.30% 41.23% 47.33% 53.21% Other 8.21% 7.33% 8.10% 8.78% Note: Assuming net migration rate is half that of 1990-2000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center
Projected Proportion of San Antonio-New Braunfels Population by Race and Ethnicity, 2010-2040 17 Figure 12 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% 2010 2020 2030 2040 White 36.12% 34.53% 31.75% 29.25% Black 6.07% 6.02% 5.85% 5.64% Hispanic 54.06% 56.55% 58.99% 61.12% Other 3.76% 2.89% 3.41% 3.98% Note: Assuming net migration rate is half that of 1990-2000. Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center
U.S. Population by Age, 2010 18 Figure 13 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 Echo Boomers Baby Boomers Texas overall population, like the nation s, is growing older. This aging is mainly a result of the maturing of the largest segment of the nation s population: the baby boom generation. 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Source: U.S. Census Bureau The youngest of the baby boom generation will turn 60 by 2024. As they retire, they will put large demands on the Social Security system and other government programs for the elderly. Furthermore, the baby boomers may drive housing demand toward move-up or second homes.
Texas Population by Age and Ethnicity, 2010 19 Figure 14 80.00% 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% One factor that may moderate Texas aging population is that the fastgrowing Hispanic population has a different age structure than the White population. 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Under 5 to 9 5 10 to 14 Source: U.S. Census Bureau 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 White 30 to 34 35 to 39 Hispanic 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over In 2010, the state s population in age groups over 35 was predominantly White. For instance, in 2010, 59.85% of Texans aged 55-59 were White compared with 24.97% that were Hispanic. On the other hand, of Texans aged 5 and under, 49.94% were Hispanic, while 35.60% were White.
Texas Population by Age and Ethnicity, 2040 20 Figure 15 70.00% 60.00% 50.00% 40.00% 30.00% 20.00% 10.00% 0.00% Under 5 to 9 5 10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 and over Assuming further rapid growth of Texas Hispanic population, Hispanics will make up a much higher percentage of most age groups by 2040, with only those 65 and over being predominantly White. The age differential between the Hispanic and the White populations has important implications for education, housing, and state services. Source: U.S. Census Bureau White Hispanic
Poverty Characteristics of United States, Texas, and Its Major and Border Metropolitan Areas, 1989-2010 21 Table 4 Individuals below poverty Percent below poverty Place 1989 1999 2010 1989 1999 2010 U.S. 31,742,864 33,899,812 40,917,513 13.1% 12.4% 13.8% Texas 3,000,515 3,117,609 3,972,054 18.1% 15.4% 16.8% Austin-Round Rock- San Marcos 129,942 134,589 220,577 15.9% 11.1% 13.9% Brownsville-Harlingen 101,362 109,288 135,270 39.7% 33.1% 34.7% Dallas-Forth Worth-Arlington 322,604 384,146 812,558 12.3% 11.1% 13.4% El Paso 155,298 158,722 194,454 26.8% 23.8% 25.6% Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown 494,457 572,410 840,268 15.1% 13.9% 15.0% Laredo 50,116 59,339 70,879 38.2% 31.2% 29.8% McAllen-Edinburg-Mission 159,216 201,865 251,650 41.9% 35.9% 34.4% San Antonio-New Braunfels 252,301 234,478 317,801 19.5% 15.1% 15.8% Source: U.S. Census Bureau; Texas State Data Center While the poor live all over the state, the border metropolitan areas fare worst, with the highest poverty rates. Even though poverty rates fell in the border metros during the 1990s as the economy boomed, the percentage of the population below poverty level remained well above the state average of 15.4% in 1999. In contrast, poverty levels in the major Texas metros have rarely been above the state average.
Sources 22 The Changing Face of Texas: Population Projections and Implications, by D Ann Petersen and Laila Assanie, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, October 2005. http://dallasfed.org/research/pubs/fotexas/fotexas_petersen.html U.S. Census Bureau, American Fact Finder http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/nav/jsf/pages/index.xhtml Texas State Data Center http://txsdc.utsa.edu/reports/subject/
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