Milk Market Situation Brussels, 27 August
EU Productions EU Productions (Jan-Jun compared to Jan-Jun 214) +,8% + 1,2% + 3,2% +,2% +,7% - 2,% - 3,1% -,1% - 11,1%!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table!!! 27 August 2
+1,5 -,7-4,6 -,9 +7,8 +1,4 +1,9 +5,5 -,2 +,3 +4,2 +3,6 +1,8 +1,2-12% to -9% -9% to -6% -6% to -3% -3% to +% +% to +3% +3% to +6% +6% to +9% +9% to +12% n/a -,9-1,9 +2,8-3, +7,4-7,8 -,1-1,5 +5,3 +1,6-3,3 27 August Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/21.1(a)1 3-6,6
+1,2-1, -5,1 -,1 +12,3 +2,1 +5,9 +3,2 +9,4 +1, +2,3 +4,7 +3,5 +4,8 +,1-16% to -12% -12% to -8% -8% to -4% -4% to +% +% to +4% +4% to +8% +8% to +12% +12% to +16% n/a +,5 -,7 +4,1-2,3 +6,4-8,5 +1,2 +1,8 +5,1 +3,9-1,3 27 August Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/21.1(a)1 4-4,6
1 Tonnes EU - Cows' milk collected 14 13 214 12 213 11 212 Jan-Jun /14 : +,8% 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source : Estat - Newcronos Last update : Jan-Jun 27 August Source: MS communications to Eurostat 5
27 August 6
Jan 1 Jan 2 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 EUR/1 kg EU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to July *) * : estimated price in running month 5 Weighted EU Average (real fat content) 45 EU Milk Equivalent Price (based on EU SMP and Butter prices) Milk Prices (LTO) 4 35 3, 3 25,5 25 2 Source :MS communications under reg. 562/25 & 479/21 + LTO : Land- en Tuinbouworganisatie Nederland (http://www.milkprices.nl/) 27 August 7
21,3 2,7 24,3 23,6 23,3 32,7 32,2 31,9 31,8 31,8 3,5 3,1 3, 29,4 28,8 28,8 28,8 28,2 27,7 27,4 27, 27, 26,6 26,6 34,7 in EUR/1 kg 37, 41,6 43,9 55,8 E U M I L K P R I C E S ( Jun vs Jun 214 ) Source : Member States (Reg. 479/21) 6 Milk Price 214 Milk Price 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 CY MT GR FI IT AT HR GB SE DK NL FR EU ES DE LU PT IE SI BE SK PL CZ BG HU RO EE LV LT Estimates for DK, IE, ES, SE NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk, others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/21 Source: MS communications under Reg. 479//21 27 August 8
in EUR/1 kg. EU Quotations of Butter and SMP (EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production) 44 42 4 38 36 Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price BUTTER prices SMP prices 34 32 3 28 285 26 24 22 2 18 16 17 14 Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Source: MS communications under reg. 562/25 and 479/21 27 August 9
Jan 3 Jan 4 Jan 5 Jan 6 Jan 7 Jan 8 Jan 9 Jan 1 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 in EUR/1 kg EU Dairy Quotations (EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production) 44 BUTTER SMP WMP CHEDDAR 42 4 38 36 34 32 3 28 26 24 22 2 18 16 14 Source: MS communications under reg. 562/25 and 479/21 27 August 1
27 August 11
Quantity in tonnes Private Storage Aid Scheme (214-) - BUTTER Quantities In Quantities Out Quantities offered into private storage Stocks level (end of month) 14. 13. 12. 11. 1. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. SEP 14 OCT 14 NOV 14 DEC 14 JAN 15 FEB 15 MAR 15 APR 15 MAY 15 JUN 15 JUL 15-2. 27 August 12
Quantity in tonnes Private Storage Aid Scheme (214-) - S.M.P. Quantities In Quantities Out Quantities offered into private storage Stocks level (end of month) 5. 45. 4. 35. 3. 25. 2. 15. 1. 5. -5. SEP 14 OCT 14 NOV 14 DEC 14 JAN 15 FEB 15 MAR 15 APR 15 MAY 15 JUN 15 JUL 15-1. 27 August 13
US Dollar USD/EUR 1.11555 27 August Source: European Central Bank 14
Latest Quotations Week - 2 In US$/t 23/8/ 9/8/ % change (previous quotation) EU Oceania USA EU Oceania USA EU Oceania USA Butter 3 182 2 738 5 225 3 162 2 625 4 454 +.6% + 4.3% + 17.3% SMP 1 895 1 563 1 698 1 874 1 513 1 523 + 1.1% + 3.3% + 11.4% WMP 2 453 1 85 2 535 2 375 1 725 2 48 + 3.3% + 7.2% + 2.2% Cheddar 3 4 3 13 3 83 3 358 2 9 3 792 + 1.3% + 3.9% +.3% Source : Member States Notifications, USDA 27 August 15
Milk collection in the main milk producing regions in 1 t 214 EU 147.6, 6.4, 4,5% 76.857,4 624,3,8% US 93.46,4 2.189,9 2,4% 47.882,8 747,1 1,6% NZ 21.842, 1.694, 7,8% 8.43, 78,,9% AUS 9.376,4 331,8 3,5% 4.147, 12,7 2,5% Total 272.278,8 1.615,7 3,9% 137.317,2 1.552, 1,1% MAIN EXPORTING THIRD COUNTRIES Jan-Jun compared to 214 BUTTER(OIL) CHEESE S.M.P. W.M.P. Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 New Zealand 237-12% 165 + 18% 21 + 19% 71-8% EU-28 93 + 17% 343-1% 357 + 9% 198-8% United States 14-73% 176-12% 29-6% 22-28% Australia 2-9% 86 + 11% 16 + 28% 36-2% Belarus 3 + 36% 8 + 19% 55 + 4% 15-1% Argentina 5-25% 19-24% 13 + 34% 62-13% 25 August 16
EU-28 Exports (1/2) Source : Eurostat (COMEXT) 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 BUTTER exports 1 Tonnes 118 119 126 121 12 12 94 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 1 tonnes BUTTER exports 16 14 214 12 1 8 6 Jan- Jun exports compared to 214 : + 1% 4 2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Tonnes SMP exports 1 tonnes SMP exports 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 646 515 52 376 47 229 176 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 8 214 7 6 5 4 3 2 Jan- Jun exports compared to 214 : + 9% 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 27 August 17
EU-28 Exports (2/2) 1 Tonnes WMP exports 1 tonnes WMP exports 5 4 3 2 1 483 458 445 388 386 374 389 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 45 4 214 35 3 25 2 15 Jan- Jun exports compared to 214 : - 8% 1 5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1 Tonnes CHEESE exports 1 tonnes CHEESE exports 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 768 787 721 667 673 547 569 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 8 214 7 6 5 4 3 2 Jan- Jun exports compared to 214 : - 1% 1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 27 August 18
MAIN IMPORTING THIRD COUNTRIES Jan-Jun compared to 214 BUTTER(OIL) CHEESE S.M.P. W.M.P. Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 Qty in ktons % /14 China 33-38% 37 + 2% 19-28% 236-56% Russia up to M ay 27-58% 66-58% 4 + 17% 12-15% Japan 5 + 181% 125 + 12% 3 + 64% + 59% United States 18 +++ 86 + 27% - 65% 5 + 68% Mexico up to M ay 17 + 89% 52 + 29% 89 + 11% 3 + 3% Algeria no - 1% - 1% - 1% - 1% 27 August 19
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec in 1 tonnes U.S. milk production Jan-Jun vs 214 : +,2% (real monthly production) 8.5 8.25 8. 7.75 212 213 214 7.5 7.25 7. Source:USDA 27 August 2
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun in 1 tonnes Australian milk production Jul-Jun 214/15 compared to 213/14 : + 2,6% 1.1 1. 9 212/13 213/14 214/15 /16 8 7 6 5 27 August 21 Source: Dairy Australia
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May in 1 tonnes. NZ milk production Jun-Jun /16 compared to 214/15 : + 8,1% 3.5 3. 2.5 2. 212/13 213/14 214/15 /16 1.5 1. 5 Source: DCANZ - Fonterra 27 August 22