Connecticut s Economy in Recession: Trends in Employment and Unemployment Joachim Hero, MPH May 2009 Introduction. Last December, the National Bureau of Economic Research declared that the United States had officially entered a recession in December of 2007. Since then, in spite of recent improvements in the stock market, economic fundamentals have shown little sign of recovery, and families have braced for what will likely be a long and painful recession. Connecticut has not been spared the pains of the national recession, with unemployment in Connecticut increasing at roughly the national rate. What exacerbates Connecticut s economic woes is that Connecticut s low- and middleincome families were far more vulnerable entering the current recession than they were heading into the 2000 recession. Unemployment was twice as high in December 2007 as it was in 2000, and incomes, hurt by persistent real wage erosion in spite of general economic growth, were lower in the mid-2000s for the poorest Connecticut residents than they were at the end of the 1980s. Decades of job decline in Connecticut s manufacturing sector have also eroded the bedrock of good-paying, stable jobs in this state. 1 The sour economy appears to have reinforced this trend, with overall job losses concentrated in Professional and Business Services, as well as in the Construction; Trade, Transportation and Utilities; and Manufacturing sectors. The only major sector to have gained a significant number of jobs since the beginning of the national recession is the Education and Health sector. This report examines recent trends in Connecticut s employment and unemployment to assess the health of our state economy and to what extent recessionary symptoms are being felt at the state level. Employment. 2 Employment levels in Connecticut have plummeted since the start of the recession. One year since the Connecticut economy began losing jobs, it has already shed 95 percent of the total jobs lost during all three years of the previous recession. Connecticut has lost 58,000 jobs, a 3.4 percent decline in total jobs, since March 2008, Connecticut s employment highpoint of the last economic expansion. This level of job loss is similar to the national employment decline of 3.5 percent. The 3.4% job loss in the current economic recession is over three times the 1.1% job loss during the first year of the previous recession. Additionally, the month-over-month decline in Connecticut s coincident employment index 3 (a composite measure of employment health) between December of 2008 and January of 2009 was the most rapid since 1975. 4 1 Joachim Hero and Doug Hall, The State of Working Connecticut 2008:Job Trends and the Labor Force. Connecticut Voices for Children, 2008. 2 In this report, total employment refers to seasonally adjusted, non-farm employment in the state, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. 3 According to the Connecticut Department of Labor, the coincident employment index reflects changes in total employment, nonfarm employment, total unemployment, and the insured unemployment rate. 4 Connecticut Department Of Labor, Employment Indicators. The Connecticut Economic Digest 14(4). April, 2009. 1
The graph below shows employment levels in Connecticut since July of 2000 though March of 2009. 1720 Employment in CT: July 2000 - March 2009 (in 000s) 1710 1700 1690 1680 1670 1660 1650 1640 July 2000: 1,700,200 jobs March 2008: 1,709,400 Jobs March 2009: 1,651,400 Jobs 1720 1710 1700 1690 1680 1670 1660 1650 1640 1630 1620 Since the beginning of the national recession Dec-07 1630 1620 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Mar-08 Jan-09 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Employment losses in Connecticut were broadly felt across industry sectors. No sector other than Education and Health gained a significant number of jobs since December 2007, and several sectors experienced considerable job loss. Overall job losses were concentrated in Professional and Business Services; Construction; Trade, Transportation and Utilities; and Manufacturing sectors. Professional and Business Services shed 16,100 jobs since the beginning of the recession, more than two thirds of which were in administrative and support services, which are lower-paying jobs. Construction jobs fell by 15,900 during this period, steeply dropping in November as credit tightened, housing permits hit record lows, and the economy worsened. 13,300 jobs were lost in the Trade, Transportation and Utilities sector, mostly in retail. Losses in Manufacturing, a sector that has been plagued with job losses for decades, amounted to 12,400 jobs since December 2007. Only Education and Health which gained 9,700 jobs continued to have significant job growth since December 2007. Of the 9,700 jobs gained in the Education and Health sector, 8,000 were in Health Care and Social Assistance and 1,700 were in Education 5. 5 The Health Care and Social Supports sector includes trained professionals in health care, e.g. physicians, hospital workers, dentists, and home care aides, but also includes workers in professions such as social work, family services, relief services, and childcare services. Connecticut Voices for Children 2
Employment Loss/Growth in Connecticut by Industry Sector since Dec. 2007 (Scale in 5,000-job intervals) Number of jobs lost % change since Dec. Professional and Business Construction Trade, Transportation, Utilities 230 225-16,100 90-7.7% -15,900-23.1% 85 335 330-13,300-4.3% 220 80 325 215 75 320 210 70 315 205 65 310 200 60 305 195 55 300 190 50 295 Dec-07 M ar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 M ar-09 210 205-12,400 Manufacturing -6.6% 160 155-3,500 Financial Activities 60 55 Information -2.4% -2,300-6.0% 200 150 50 195 145 45 190 140 40 185 135 35 180 130 30 175 125 25 170 120 20 270 265 Government Leisure and Hospitality Education and Health 160-500 -0.2% +900 0.7% +9,700 +3.3% 155 310 305 260 150 300 255 145 295 250 140 290 245 135 285 240 130 280 235 125 275 230 120 270 Connecticut Voices for Children 3
Unemployment. Connecticut s March 2009 unemployment rate of 7.5 percent is the highest it has been since 1992, when unemployment peaked at 7.5 percent. Unemployment in Connecticut is roughly average compared to other states, and slightly lower than the national rate, which was 8.5 percent in March. The graph below shows how unemployment began to increase slowly in the summer of 2007, when unemployment hovered between 4.0 and 5.0 percent, and grew much more rapidly through 2008 into 2009. Connecticut s unemployment rate, which in January 2000 was 1.5 points below the national rate, has converged over the last nine years to be roughly equal to the national rate. Over the past few months, however, Connecticut s unemployment has not risen as quickly as the national rate. 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% Unemployment Rate In Connecticut: July 2000 - Mar. 2009 Connecticut US Since the beginning of the national recession 9% 8.5% 8% 7.5% 7% 6.5% 6% 5.5% 5% Connecticut US 4.5% 4% 0% Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jul-05 Jan-06 Jul-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Dec-07 Mar-08 Jun-08 Sep-08 Dec-08 Mar-09 Connecticut s state revenue shortfall and its implications for jobs. Because of Connecticut s state revenue shortfall, Governor Rell and state legislators are considering a variety of budget cuts, including cuts that would affect jobs in health and education. A reliance on budget cutting to close the state s budget shortfall could cause further damage to the state s economy and undercut supports for families when they need it most. For example, Connecticut s Education and Health job sector, heavily dependent on public investment, is the largest job sector in the state, with the greatest amount of growth, even during the recession. Severe cuts to state spending in this area could undermine the leading area of progress in the state economy and weaken one of Connecticut s economic advantages its well-educated workforce. Proposed cuts in the Governor s budget that would cause strains on employers in the Education and Health sector include: Cuts in funds for nursing homes, HUSKY health insurance, dental coverage for adults in Medicaid, Community Health Services, and School-Based Health Centers. Cuts in funding for magnet schools, charter schools, priority school districts, school readiness preschool programs, and child care quality improvement initiatives. Connecticut Voices for Children 4
Using previous work from the Center for Economic and Policy Research, Connecticut Voices estimates that Governor Rell s total recommended budget cuts to all state programs ($1.075 billion) in the next fiscal year (FY 10) could result in a loss of around 14,700 jobs. 6 The budget submitted by the General Assembly s Appropriations Committee also includes several cuts to health and education that could potentially cost the state jobs, but many of the cuts included in the Governor s budget, particularly in health, are reduced or eliminated. The General Assembly is able to avoid several budget reductions by taking a more balanced approach to the state budget, relying upon both cuts and increased revenue to close the budget gap. Connecticut s businesses and families would benefit from a more balanced approach to revenue increases and budget cuts, including the progressive income tax reform proposed by the legislature s Finance Committee. According to Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and Peter Orszag, the current Director of the Office of Management and Budget, tax increases on higher-income families are the least damaging mechanism for closing state fiscal deficits in the short run. Reductions in government spending on goods and services, or reductions in transfer payments to lower-income families, are likely to be more damaging to the economy in the short run than tax increases focused on higher-income families. 7 Conclusion. The severity of the current economic recession is apparent in monthly employment and unemployment data. Connecticut has not shown any insulation from the nation s economic woes, and the threat of severe state budget cuts could mean more job losses in the future. Rising job losses and the continued decline of income among lower-income residents will make them more vulnerable to economic turbulence and undercuts not only our societal values but also the current and future viability of our state economy. State budget cuts to health and education programs threaten further harm to the state s most vulnerable populations and would have a swift negative impact on employment sectors that rely upon public funding most notably the Education and Health sector, the only sector that has shown substantial growth since the recession began. With household costs rising and jobs shrinking, the state must also do more, not less, to help families make ends meet. The state should also avoid budget cuts for programs that reduce family expenses (e.g., child care subsidies, housing subsidies, energy assistance), and provide affordable health insurance for the unemployed and uninsured. 6 Matthew Sherman, Will Workers Survive State Budget Belt-Tightening? Center for Economic and Policy Research. (2008) http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/2008-12-will-workers-survive-state-budget-belt-tightening.pdf Accessed 04/22/2009 7 Peter Orszag and Joseph Stiglitz, Budget Cuts vs. Tax Increases at the State Level: Is One More Counter-Productive than the Other During a Recession? Center on Budget & Policy Priorities. (2001), http://www.cbpp.org/10-30-01sfp.pdf Accessed, 04/22/2009 Connecticut Voices for Children 5