EMDAT and Trends in Natural Disasters Debarati Guha Sapir CRED, Louvain School of Medicine Brussels Venice, 2011
ARE DISASTERS INCREASING?
Is it a real increase? Natural disasters 1900 2007 EM DAT created (1988) CRED created and OFDA began compiling (1973) OFDA created (1964) Source: EM DAT, OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database CRED Université i Catholique de Louvain Brussels Belgium Debby G. Sapir CRED
500 Trends in disasters 450 400 350 rs mber of disaste Nu 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Earthquake, Volcano, Mass movement dry Climate related Source: EM DAT The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database
SO ARE DISASTERS INCREASING? YES BUT..
Yes but.deaths are decreasing
Yes but geographic impacts are different Occurrence of disasters Victims/100 000 pop.
Yes but.. economic impacts are different Damage costs (3-year moving average) 140000 120000 Katrina Damage costs s (in $US Millio on) 100000 80000 60000 40000 Kobe Low income Middle Income High Income 20000 0
% SHAREOFCLIMATE RELATED RELATED DISASTERSOFTOTAL TOTAL 2007 2008 2009 EVENTS 93.7 90.5 91.4 AFFECTED 99.4 77.9 94.3 ECONOMIC LOSS 78.4 54.9 84.1
Climate related disasters 2000 2009*: what and where? TYPE REGION Drought Extreme temp. Flood Mass move. wet Storm 30% 4% 5% 6% 16% 4% 17% 24% Africa Americas Asia Europe Wildfire 6% 49% 39% Oceania *January-November Debarati Guha-Sapir
TOP 10 COUNTRIES MOST HIT BY NATURAL DISASTERS China P Rep 35 United States Indonesia, Philippines India Afghanistan Vietnam Australia, Burundi, Pakistan Ethiopia, Mexico, Romania Germany Bangladesh, Canada, Japan, Kenya, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea, Russia, Somalia 26 20 17 13 10 8 7 6 5
1. We need to identify proximal determinants of extreme climate events. They will be actionable by poorer countries and will produce shorter term results
Floods in Purulia, W Bengal 2008
Determinants of increase in acute climate events POPULATION INCREASE (shanty towns in embankments - Rio) WEAK INFRA- STRUCTURES (floods and droughts) Climate disasters increasing Affected population increasing DEFORESTATION (Haiti) URBANIZATION (drainage & concretization - Rio) Debarati Guha-Sapir
DO TRENDS IN CLIMATE DISASTERS AND VICTIMS FOLLOW POPULATION GROWTH? (1900 2009) WORLD Population Victims SOUTH EAST ASIA Population Victims Events Events Central America Population Northern Africa Population Victims Victims Events Events * Includes: flood, wet mass movements, storms, extreme temperature, drought and wild fires CRED, D.Guha Sapir, Geneva, Janu
2. More field evidence on extreme climate events and their impact on populations E.g. Effectson disease transmission and malnutrition
Figure 2. Mortality by age and gender (Tamil Nadu, Nd India) Source: Guha Sapir D., Parry L., Degomme O., Joshi P.C., Saulina Arnold J.P. (2006) Risks factors for mortality and injury : Post tsunami tsunami epidemiological findings from Tamil Nadu, CRED Working Paper, Brussels.
Leptospirosis p in Jakarta floods, 2008
SEVERE FLOODS AND DISEASES FECAL ORAL Diarrhea Cholera, Rotavirus Escherichia Coli Salmonella Shigella Campylobacter Non diarrheal diseases Typhoid/Paratyphoid fever Hepatitis A/E VECTOR BORNE Ml Malaria, Dengue/DHF West Nile Fever Chikungunya RODENT BORNE Hantavirus, Leptospirosis
THANK YOU
STRATOSPHERIC PROBLEMS NEED GRASSROOTS SOLUTIONS Effective adaptation requires better scientific evidence on how acute climate events concretely tl affect human populations p