Ethiopian Road Sector Development Program

Performance Monitoring System Of the Ethiopian Road Sector Development Program (June 14, 2004)

RSDP MONITORING INDICATORS Structure of presentation 1) Background 2) Brief Definition of the Indicator 3) Data Collection 4) Trends of Indices and Ratios (Findings) 5) Conclusions 6) Recommendations

Road Sector Development Program Time Period: 1997-2007 Investment Size: 3 billion USD Financiers: WB, EU, ADB, OPEC, BADEA, NDF, UK, Germany, Japan, Italy, Sweden, DCI, SDF, RF, GOE.

Institutional Arrangement Ethiopian Roads Authority -established in 1951, responsible for federal roads of about 16,000 km 8 Regional Road Authorities responsible for rural roads of about 17,000 km

I Background 1.1 Monitoring System Introduced in 1997 1.2 A Procedure For updating Established 1.3 A Total of 15 Indicators Identified and Four More included later on 1.4 The Usefulness of the Indicators To serve as check on the viability of objectives, institutional requirements and risk containment To Enable Quick Tracking To clarify purpose and guide design To determine how outputs meet expectations To help in gauging development impact

Brief Description of the Indicators 2.1 Benefit Indicators Road Density Traffic flow Roughness and road condition Vehicle Operating Costs Freight and Passenger Tariffs Fatalities and Accidents Journey Time Employment for Local Labor Income for Local Labor

Brief Description of the Indicators 2.2 Sustainability Indicators Maintenance Budget and Expenditure Kilometers Maintained (Routine) Maintenance Cost / Cost of Maintaining Network Ratio Time for Payments to Consultants and Contractors Time for Contract Administration Private / Total Construction ratio Labour-Based / Total Construction Ratio Actual Axle Load / Legal Limit Ratio Construction, Rehabilitation and Maintenance Costs Skill Upgrading - Training

DATA COLLECTION (SOURCES) ROAD DENSITY TRAFFIC FLOW ERA + REGIONS ERA ROUGHNESS + ROADS CONDITION Visual Inspection (Sample Paved & Gravel Roads) Vehicle Operating Cost - Unit Prices - Vehicle Utilization Vehicle Dealers, Vehicle Maintenance Workshops, Transport Companies, Fuel Stations, Retail Establishments, CSA.

DATA COLLECTION (SOURCES) Con t Freight Rates & Passenger Fares Transport Companies Fatalities & Accidents Journey Time Federal / AA Traffic Police Travel Time Survey Employment for Local Labour Local + International Contractors Income for Local Labour Skill Upgrading (Training) As above ERA

DATA COLLECTION (SOURCES) Con t Maintenance Budget and Expenditure Kms. Maintained Time for Payment to Cons. & cont. Time for contract Administration Contract Work ERA/Road Fund ERA/Road Fund/Regions ERA ERA ERA Labour Based Works Axle Load Regions ERA

Over view of Trend Indicators Trend of Index/Ratio Indicator No. Broad Description of Index/Ratio RSDP/INARSA 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01 2001/02 1. Road Density Index A (Index Per 1000km2) 21.7 22.8 23.7 24.4 27.0 27.7 30.3 Index B (Index Per 1000 in capita) 0.44 0.45 0.46 0.46 0.50 0.50 0.53 2. Traffic Flow Total Adjusted Vehicle km. 90.8 100 100.9 105.6 115.3 115.4 106.7 3. Roughness and road Condition Roughness Index * Paved Roads 100 -- 110.8 -- 108.94 117.0 94.06 79.41 * Gravel Roads 100 -- 102.5 -- 101.71 125.5 100.0 97.34 Road Condition (%) * Paved Roads ("good") 23 -- 22 -- 22 19 43 59 * Paved Roads ("fair") 21 -- 23 -- 22 12 13 9 * Paved Roads ("poor") 56 -- 55 -- 56 69 44 32 * Gravel Roads ("good") 18 -- 20 -- 22 2 15 19 * Gravel Roads ("fair") 32 -- 30 -- 27 20 19 35 * Gravel Roads ("poor") 50 -- 50 -- 51 78 66 46

Indicator No. 4. Vehicle Operation Costs (VOC) VOC Index -- 100 111.7 111.8 148.5 139.77 144.27 VOC Saving km * Paved -- 100 -- 89.8 84.0 68.8 84 * Gravel -- 100 -- 89.3 76.0 68.9 82 5. Freight & Passenger Tariffs Unit Price Index Trunk Roads * Passenger -- 100 100 100 135.6 156.3 156.3 * Freight -- 100 130.34 130.34 114.3 63.7 85.4 Regional Roads * Passenger -- 100 100 100 97.8 93.9 93.9 * Freight -- 100 492 492 442 162.4 210 6. Accident Data Ratio A. Fatalities/ Total Accident 0.23 0.198 0.185 0.274 0.196 0.198 Ratio B. Fatilities/1000vehicles 21.4 17.77 16.46 11.58 13.21 13.45 Accident/1000 vehicle km 92.5 89.89 88.72 47 67.45 68.02 Ratio C. Fatialities/1000 vehicles km. 0.52 0.45 0.41 0.28 0.35 0.38 Accident/1000 vehicle km 2.26 2.30 2.21 1.15 1.77 1.91 7. Maintenance Buudget and ExpenditureRatio A. Maintenance budget/total budget 0.155 0.159 0.127 0.108 0.146 0.097 0.15 Index B. Actual Maintenance budget 146 100 219.44 205.28 236.25 209.45 288.7 Ratio C. Actual Maintenance expenditure/maintenance budget 0.994 0.603 0.993 0.767 0.878 0.807 0.712 8. Km roads under routine roads maintenance Over view of Trend Indicators Trend of Index/Ratio Broad Description of Index/Ratio RSDP/INARSA 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01 2001/02 (km maintained) Ratio for Federal Roads 72.6 -- 100 92.5 99.2 95.4 92.4 91.7 Ratio for Regional Roads 68.4 -- 100 -- 141.8 156.9 157.1 54.8

Indicator No. Over view of Trend Indicators Trend of Index/Ratio Broad Description of Index/Ratio RSDP/INARSA 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01 2001/02 9. Maintenance Budget & expenditures Ratio A. Actual Maint. Budget/theoretical compared to Maintenance Need (routine) cost maintenance 0.55 1.13 0.74 0.53 0.19 0.15 Ratio B. Actual Maintenance Expenditure/Theoretical Cost of Maint. 0.33 1.12 0.57 0.47 0.20 0.15 Time for Payments, Consultants and 10. Time for payments to Consultants Contractors Ratio (Consultants) * Approval 0.61 0.89 1.86 0.93 0.83 0.37 0.36 * Payments 0.82 1.38 1.85 6.22 0.9 0.71 0.97 Ratio (Contractors) * Approval 0.89 0.62 -- 1.13 0.23 0.26 0.41 * Payments 2.28 1.25 -- -- 0.4 0.32 0.36 11. Time for contract Administration Time for Contract Administration Index * Feasibility Study 0.56 1.74 -- 0.59 -- * Approval of feasibility study -- 1.2 -- 1.83 -- * Detailed Design 1.12 1.86 -- -- -- * Approval of Detailed Design 2.03 6.82 1.30 -- -- * Construction Supervision 0.04 * Prequalification of contracts 1.02 -- -- -- 4.15 0.65 * Construction * Tendering for civil work 2.17 -- -- 1.25 1.25 0.86 * Mobilization 1.10 -- -- 0.40 --

Indicator No. 12. Contract Work/Total Construction Work Over view of Trend Indicators Trend of Index/Ratio Broad Description of Index/Ratio RSDP/INARSA 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01 2001/02 Private/Total construction Ratio Ratio A. Private Sector/Total Construction * kilometers 0.44 0.47 0.42 0.15 0.45 0.62 0.73 * Birr (million) 0.32 0.58 0.76 0.53 0.78 0.9 0.93 Ratio B. International/Total Construction * kilometers 0.39 0.35 0.12 0.06 0.27 0.52 0.53 * Birr(million) 0.28 0.31 0.48 0.24 0.64 0.77 0.81 Ratio C. Local Equip.. Contracts. /Total Construction * kilometers 0.05 0.12 0.31 0.09 0.17 0.10 0.19 * Birr (million) 0.94 0.26 0.28 0.29 0.14 0.13 0.12 No. of International Contracts 9 7 3 1 6 9 13 No. of Local Contracts 2 2 12 12 12 2 5 Average size * International equipment based contracts 7.30 8.1 72.55 63.37 64.7 89.63 64.64 * Local equipment based contracts 5.30 24.25 10.77 6.25 6.83 65.50 25.45 13. Labour-based Road + Ratio A. Labor-Based/Total Construction (km) -- -- 0.34 0.62 0.29 0.21 0.18 Construction/Total Construction Ratio B. Labor-based/Total Construction (Birr) -- -- -- -- 0.05 0.02 0.02 14. Axle Load Ratio of Vehicles with overload and within legal limits Actual Axle load/legal limit Ratio Overload/Legal limits (No.) * Front Axle 0.02 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 * Rear Axle 1.10 1.01 1.9 0.80 0.8 1.04 1.09 Average Axle loads/legal limits (Axle loads) * Front Axle 0.64 0.64 0.64 0.63 0.65 0.67 0.17 * Rear Axle 0.01 0.99 0.95 0.92 1.00 1.00 0.91 Average Axle Loads of vehicles Exceeding legal limits (Axle loads) * Front Axle 8.59 8.35 8.55 7.34 5.86 8.61 8.8 * Rear Axle 12.56 12.21 12.17 12.14 11.83 12.32 11.9

Indicator No. 15. Unit costs for construction, Rehabilitation & Maintenance Over view of Trend Indicators Trend of Index/Ratio Broad Description of Index/Ratio RSDP/INARSA 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999'00 2000/'01 2001/02 Construction, Rehabilitation and Maintenance Construction Paved -- 100 -- -- -- Gravel -- 100 123.3 123.3 131.9 131.9 136.8 Rehabilitation Paved -- 100 80 80 68 68 76.7 Gravel -- 100 126.6 126.6 140 140 140 Maintenance Routine Paved -- 100 92 100 200 200 210 Gravel -- 100 89.8 100 200 200 210 Periodic Paved -- 100 103.3 106.7 137.7 137.7 155 Gravel -- 100 100.9 102.3 92.7 92.7 151.4 16. Journey Time Index A. Light vehicles Paved 100 90.04 88.44 86.13 Gravel 100 104.56 104.83 205.86 Index B. Heavy Vehicles Paved 100 97.73 97.78 93.59 Gravel 100 103.2 105.91 103.82

Three Additional Indicators Employment for Local Labour (2001/2002) Total Employment (no) 9448 Skilled (no) 2373 Emp. Local labour (no.) 4335 Emp. International Contr. (no.) 5113 Emp. For women 695

Three Additional Indicators Income Generated for Local Labour 2001/2002 Million Birr Total 31.4 By Women 2.54 From Int. Contra. 15.7 From Local Contra. 15.7

Three Additional Indicators Skill Upgrading Baseline(2001/02) Professional (no.) 23 Topo Survey (no.) 1 Mechanics(no.) 9 Adm. + Acc. (no.) 5 ERTTP (no.) 300 Labour-based based (no.) 166 Operators, Foremen, etc 313

Conclusions ns The Overall Findings Show Signs of Progress towards: Improving Accessibility Reducing proportion of roads rated poor Reducing Journey Time Increasing VOC Savings Reducing Time for Payment to Consultants and Contractors

Conclusions ns Reducing Time for Payment Reducing Time for Contract Administration Enhancing Private Sector Participation

Conclusions ns On the Contrary, there are Shortcomings Concerning: Road Safety Kilometers of Roads Maintained (Primarily Regional) Labor-Based Technology Maintenance Expenditure/Capacity Local contracting capacity

Conclusions ns Further, there are uncertainties about Freight rates and passenger fares Maintenance Cost /Total Cost of Maintained Network Note: External Factors affected performance. About Monitoring System: Limitations in data management.

Recommendations The following are the main Recommendations: A More Coordinated Investment Program and Recurrent Budget/Exp.. To Expand Road Network to Improve Spatial Accessibility Strengthen Enforcement of Axle Load Regulations and Assess Future Policy For Maximizing Economic Gain From Use of Larger Trucks Beyond The Prevailing Limit.

Recommendations Ensure Effective Enforcement of Traffic Law and Introduce Road Safety Education and Publicity Campaigns Create Accident Analysis Capacity for Introducing Road Safety Measures Formulate Road Maintenance Program Based on Need

Recommendations Expedite Transforming Maintenance Districts to Enterprises Oriented Towards Contract Management Provide Technical and Financial Support to the Local Contracting Industry (e.g. start up capital) Introduce Balancing - Packaging in International Tendering Integrate Labour-Based Technology in Regional Road Programmes

Could we say The indicators created the lens through which we see the RSDP Some Provocative Questions Questions - THANK YOU-