Vehicle development in the perspective of climate change Håkan Johansson Coordinator climate mitigation 1
Outline of presentation What is sustainable levels of GHG? Is technical measures sufficient? Urban planning and modal shift Energy efficiency Renewable energy Biogas 2
To avoid the most severe consequences, the increase in global mean temperature should be limited to 2 C relative pre-industrial time Picture from IPCC 4AR WG II 3
Why reduce climate change to maximum 2 C? Stabilise Arctic ice to avoid accelerating climate change and to minimise loss of Greenland ice Stabilise mountain glaciers to prevent loss of fresh water for billions of people Stabilise Antarctic and Greenland ice-shelves to prevent large increase in sea level Minimise expansion of deserts in subtropical areas Minimise acidification of sea (through dissolved CO 2 ) which make it impossible for corals and animals with shell to survive 4
What are the consequences of a 2 degree target? Globaly, CO 2 eq-emissions all sectors - 30% to 2030 (-20% relative to 1990) - 65% till 2050 (-60% relative to 1990) Vi måste agera nu! -30% - Industrialised countries CO 2 eqemissions all sectors - 40 percent to 2020-80 percent to 2030-95 percent to 2050 All (large) sectors have to contribute Note that this is in line with 350 ppm CO 2 since we also include other antropogene greenhouse gases. CO 2 ekv/person 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 16,1 4,2 I-länder (annex I) Utvecklingsländer Source IPCC, 4AR 6,5 Globalt snitt 5
Decided measures EU-CO 2 regulation passenger cars and LCV 130 g/km to 2015 10 procent renewable energy in transport 2020 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 History 2-degree Without measures Decided measures Decided measures can stabilise emissions in Sweden 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 6
Swedish Road Administration plan for climate mitigation Download short version from www.vv.se The Swedish Road Administration and the climate issue 7 http://publikationswebbutik.vv.se/shopping/showitem 4375.aspx
All measures needed It is not sufficient with more energy-efficient vehicles partly run on electricity and an increased share of renewable energies in order to achieve the emissions targets that have been established both nationally and internationally.. Energy efficiency Urban planning and modal shift Renewable energy Swedish Road Administration plan for climate mitigation 8
Possiblities to contribute to the 2-degree target 160 140 120 100 Energy efficiency 80 Fuels (including electricity) 60 40 Urban planning and modal shift Remaining emissions 20 Share of emission reduction 0 2004 2020 2030 9
IEA scenario Blue map/shifts on global CO 2 emissions from transport not all the way to 400 ppm CO2eq. Level to reach 2-degree target Källa IEA (2009) TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO2: MOVING TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY 10
INFLUENCE TRANSPORT NEEDS Energy efficiency Renewable energy Urban planning and modal shift 11
Influence of traffic growth Million tonnes per year 20 +10 % -14% 15 10 Motorcycle and moped Heavy goods vehicle Bus Light goods vehicle Passenger car 5 0 1990 2009 2009 with constant traffic 12
The road towards a less car dependent society? Potential to 2030 Urban planning for less car dependence -10% Improved public transport -5% Increased focus on cycling and walking -5% Car sharing -5% Teleworking and internet-shopping -3% Congestion charge, parking policy and fee -5% Lower speed limits -3% Fuel/CO 2 - tax -13% Total -40% 13
Factors in urban planning that affect car use (Five Ds) Density Incresed density Diversity Mixed landuse Design Street network, possiblities to walk and cycle Destination accessibility Nearness to work and service Distance to transit Short distance to good public transport Parkingpolicy and costs 14 Growing cooler The evidence on urban development and climate change
Less car dependence - not only CO2! Källa IEA (2009) TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO2: MOVING TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY 15
TECHNICAL MEASURES Energy efficiency Renewable energy Urban planning and modal shift 16
Energy efficiency Potential (in stock) 2030 Vehicles Passenger cars and light duty trucks 50% (excluding electric powered) Share of electic powered 20% Long haulage and coach 25% Urban bus and distribution truck 30% Other improvements in efficiency (ecodriving, lower speeds) Passenger cars and light duty trucks 15% Heavy duty vehicles 15% 17
EU CO 2 regulation on passenger cars 2009/443/EC 130 g/km 2015 65% 2012; 75% 2013; 80% 2014; 100% 2015 95 g/km 2020 70 g/km 2025 18
250 Increased diesel penetration, downsizingengine and vehicle 200 Conven. engine techn. + non engine improve. EU g CO2/km 150 100 Hybrids + non engine improve. Plugin hybrids/ electric veh. (37%) Sweden Including electric drive 50 0 19
Make difference through active choise of vehicle Chose size from 90 percent of car trips not from 10 percent Chose most efficient engine and gear box If possible chose an EFV 225kg/year 6% Volvo V70 2,4 T aut 292tkr 9,7 l/100km 232 g CO2/km Volvo V70 1,6 Drive 275 tkr 4,5 l diesel/100km 120 g/km 1680 kg/year 48% Guide for new and used vehicles www.konsumentverket.se 1695kg/year 52% Volvo V50 2,4i aut 242 tkr 9,1 l/100km 217 g CO2/km Volvo V50 1,6 Drive S/S 236 tk 3,9 l diesel/100km 104 g/km 165kg/year 9% 20
EFV depending on fuel used 250 200 120 g/km petrol/diesel CO2 WTW g/km 150 100 Petrol Swedish mix Only E85/biogas Only natural gas 50 0 Flexfuel (ethanol) Bifuel (gas) 21
Measures heavy duty trucks Källa IEA (2009) TRANSPORT, ENERGY AND CO2: MOVING TOWARD SUSTAINABILITY 22
Fossil energy sources (crude oil, coal, natural gas etc.) Biomass Hydro, wind, solar Nuclear Fossil fuels (petrol, diesel, CNG, LPG) Biofuels (Alcohols, Biodiesel, DME, Biogas) Electricity Hydrogen ICV (incl. HEV) PHEV EV FCV 23
Renewable energy 2030 Total 34 TWh, 45% fossil sel Biogas DME FA Renewables FAME Biogas trol Low blended ethanol Electricity HVO FTD Diesel Renewables Electricity HVO FT LDV 17 TWh, 51% fossil HDV 17 TWh, 40% fossil 24
Electric power is at the moment the only known technical system that is compatible with long term climate targets 25
Possibility for a shift in technology Lower battery cost Improved electric engine technology Radical new concepts made for electric power Thoroughly planned introduction strategy New business concepts New preferences for buyers 26
Substitute for fossil diesel critical! Demand on increased energy efficiency on LDV leads to increased share of diesel relative petrol HDV do not have same possibilities to increase energy efficiency and reduce traffic volumes as LDV Imbalance existing today between petrol and diesel in refinery will increase Aviation needs same components 27
Possible substitutes for diesel Biodiesel, in existing diesel engines FTD Fisher-Tropsch-Diesel HVO-Biocrude FAME/RME (only low blending) DME, in dedicated diesel engines Biogas, in dedicated diesel or spark ignition engines Electricity Battery in LDV Trolley bus Hydrogen Long term 28
Digestion Municipal waste/ manure Gasification Biomass Biogas Long haulage CI dual fuel, LBG Urban bus SI Distribution truck SI or CI dual fuel LDV SI 29
Dual fuel technical benefits and challenges Benefits Low CO 2 emissions especially for biogas High energy efficiency Possibility to use in long haulage Challenges Development of test procedures and legal requirements for dual fuel Engine and aftertreament that fulfils this throughout the useful life Liquid gas (needed for long haulage) Biogas production 30
Conclusions Very large reductions of greenhouse gas emissions are needed to stabilise the climate to less than 2 degree temperature increase. For road transport energy efficient vehicles and system, renewable energy and reduction in passenger car traffic are needed. Substitutes for diesel is critical. Biogas will play one part in this. 31
32 If the world does not make a dramatic shift in energy policies over the next few years, we may well pass the point of no return James Hansen (2009) in Storms of my grand children