POLAND S GREENHOUSE GA S EMISSIONS

a. POLAND S GREENHOUSE GA S EMISSIONS

page 30 POLAND S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Poand is not among the argest emitters of greenhouse gases gobay, but its economy is among the east carbonefficient in the EU. Poand s goba share in GHG emissions is just 1 percent; and its per capita emissions are about the average for the EU. Poand cut its emissions consideraby as a side effect of the restructuring of transition to a market economy, but the ink between growth and emissions has re-emerged in recent years. A critica difference in the make-up of Poand s emissions is the dominance of the power sector and its extraordinary dependence on coa. Apart from energy sector, Poand s transport sector has experienced very high rates of emission growth, and energy efficiency, athough improving, remains beow EU averages. Poand contributes marginay to the goba carbon footprint, with a share in goba GHG emissions equa to about 1 percent. The EU as a whoe is responsibe for about 13 percent of goba emissions, whie China and the US, the argest emitters, are responsibe for amost 40 percent of goba emissions between them. (Figure 2). On a per capita basis, Poand emits about 10 metric tons of CO 2 e (tc02e) each year, which is the average across the EU (with most countries at between 7 and 15 tc02e per capita). On average, Europeans emit ess than haf the greenhouse gases of North American or Austraian citizens. Nonetheess, this eve remains we above the goba average of 7 tc02e as we as the benchmark of 2, the average goba per capita emissions consistent with a 2 C rise in temperature. 14 Figure 2. Word s arge rgest greenhouse enho gas emitters, ters 2005, 05, in percent Other, 28.9 Mexico, 1.7 Canada, 2.0 Brazi, 2.7 Japan, 3.6 EU15, 11.0 Czech Rep, 0.4 Estonia, 0.1 Hungary, 0.2 Latvia, 0.0 Lithuania, 0.1 EU10, 2.4 Poand, 1.0 India, 5.0 Russia, 5.2 China, 19.2 Sovakia, 0.1 Sovenia, 0.1 Bugaria, 0.2 Romania, 0.3 US, 18.4 Source: Word Resources Institute, t Word Bank staff cacuns. Despite unremarkabe overa emissions eves, Poand s economy remains among the east carbon-efficient in the EU. In 2007, around 1.3 metric tons of CO 2 e were required to produce 1 miion in GDP, whie the EU average was ess than 0.5 tc02e. This high emissions-intensity of the economy is due party to high amounts of CO 2 generated by the energy consumed but aso to the high energy intensity of production in Poand. Whie in the EU on average, consumption of energy equa to one ton of oi equivaent 15 generates 2.5 metric tons of CO 2, in Poand the same r is around 3.4 (Figure 3), despite the downward trend of carbon intensity in Poand over the ast two decades. At the same time, energy used per miion euros of GDP, at 400 tons of oi equivaent, greaty exceeds the EU-wide average of 169 (Figure 11) and stands at about the word average (Figure 4). Among transition economies, Poand s performance appears better: its carbon intensity on a per capita basis is situated in about the midde of the countries of Eastern and Centra Europe and Centra Asia (see Figure 5). 14 The Contraction and Convergence mode deveoped by the Goba Commons Institute estimates that to contain goba warming to 2 C increase, which is typicay associated in cimate modes with a CO 2 e concentrn of 400-500 ppm, emissions per capita must come down to 2 tc0 2 e per capita by 2050. The Institute has advocated for an egaitarian sharing of emissions abatement costs under which every country brings emissions per capita to the same eve. 15 Toe (ton of oi equivaent) is the amount of energy reeased by burning one ton of crude oi, approximatey 42 GJ or 11.63 MWh (according to the IEA and OECD).

page 31 Figure 3. CO 2 intensi sity of energy use in Poand and EU27 Figure 4. Energy inten ensity across countries, 200707 (toe/m ) Poand CO2 intensity EU 27 CO2 intensity 2,500 4.0 2,000 3.5 1,500 3.0 2.5 2.0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 tco2/toe 1,000 500 0 IE DK UK JP AT IT DE SE LU FR EU 27 NL GR ES PT MT BE CY FI SI US LV MEX BRA Word PL HU CAN KOR LT SK CZ EE RO CHN IND BG RU toe/m Note: CO 2 intensity ty is measure in metric tons of CO 2 per tons of oi equivaent ent consumed. Energy intensity ty is the r of gross inand nd consumption of energy ergy (in toe, tons of oi equivaent) to GDP (in miion ion euros at 2000 prices). Source: European Commission, miss ion, Word Bank staff cacuns. Figure 5. Carbon intens ity in Centra and Eastern Europe and Centra Asia, 2005 05 20 18 Sovenia GDP per capita,, US$ 000 16 14 Czech Repubic 12 Hungary Sovak Repubic Estonia 10 Croatia 8 Lithuania Poand 6 Latvia Turkey Russian Federn 4 Romania Bugaria Turkmenistan Macedonia, FYR Kazakhstan Bosnia Serbia and Armenia Abania Herzegovina 2 Bearus Georgia Ukraine Kyrgyz Repubic Azerbaijan Uzbekistan 0 Modova Tajikistan 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 GHG emissions per capita, tco 2 e Note: Size of circe indicates icat tota CO 2 e emissions sion for each country. Source: Word Bank staff cacuns. cua

page 32 POLAND S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Poand s transition to a market economy had a co-benefit of sharpy reduced carbon emissions. From 564 miion metric tons of CO 2 e in 1988, greenhouse gas emissions coapsed aong with output through 1990 (decining 20 percent), as inefficient, often highy energy-intensive pants shut down during the eary years of transition. The period of 1996 to 2002 witnessed another 17 percent decine in emissions but whie GDP expanded. Overa, athough Poand s GDP near doubed during 1988 to 2008, its GHG emissions were reduced by about 30 percent. Nevertheess, during the ast haf decade or so, a more traditiona positive corren between GDP growth and GHG emissions has re-estabished itsef. (See Tabe 1 and Figure 6). 16 Tabe 1. Poand s g reenhouse gas emissions, 1988, 2000, and 200 Emissions, in MtCO 2 e 1988 2000 2008 GHG emissions (without LULUCF) 564.0 390.2 395.6 Net emissions/removas by LULUCF -28.7-24.5-39.2 GHG net emissions with LULUCF 535.3 365.7 356.4 GHG emissions (without LULUCF) 1988 to 2000 2000 to 2008 1988 to 2008 Changes in emissions, % -30.8 1.4-29.9 Average annua growth rates, % -3.0 0.2-1.8 Notes: LULUCF is and use, and use change, and forestry. Source: Fourth Nna Communicn under the UNFCCC. Figure 6. Economic growth and GHG emissions in Poand, 1988-2008 200 GDP index, 1988 = 100 CO2 emissions index, 1988 = 100 150 100 50 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Word Resources Institute, t UNFCCC, Centra Statistica ti t ic a Office, Word Bank staff cacuns. Poand s types and sources of greenhouse gas emissions resembe those for the rest of the EU except for the eectricity sector. The breakdown of Poand s greenhouse gas emissions by type of gas show that its emissions are predominanty CO 2 (with a more than 80 percent share), with the EU overa at about the same eve. Compared with the rest of the word, emissions from agricuture are ess important in the EU and in Poand. One point of departure from the EU and even from the EU10 17 is Poand s greater emissions from the eectricity and heat sector (Figure 7 and Figure 8). 16 Net emissions removas by and use, and use change, and forestry (LULUCF) are shown in Tabe 1. Because they are not a centra issue for Poand and because consistent cross-country measurement of LULUCF remains under discussion, the remainder of this report considers emissions without LULUCF. 17 The EU10 consists of Bugaria, Czech Repubic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poand, Romania, Sovakia, and Sovenia.

page 33 Figure 7. GHG emissions sion by gas, 2007 Figure 8. GHG emissions sion by sect ector, 2007 07 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% CH4 CO2 Fuorinated gases N2O 72.9 83.0 80.0 82.3 Word* EU27 EU10 Poand 100 80 60 40 20 0 Eectricity & Heat Manufacturing & Construction Transportn Other Fue Combustion Fugitive Emissions Industria Processes Agricuture Waste 16.1 9.2 9.2 8.8 13.4 9.9 10.3 12.7 14.2 19.5 11.8 9.7 8.8 12.0 13.8 12.8 32.6 32.0 39.4 46.1 Word* EU27 EU10 Poand Note: *word data from 2005. Source: Word Resources Institute, European Commission, sion on, Word Bank staff cacuns. cua Poand s energy mix is dominated by coa to such an extent that it is an outier in both Europe and gobay. In contrast to the EU overa or even to the EU10, in Poand soid fues (coa and ignite) constitute 57 percent of gross inand energy consumption (Figure 9). The share of natura gas (13 percent) and renewabe energy (5 percent) are significanty beow the EU15 and EU10. Aso, Poand is one of 11 countries in the EU and one of 3 countries in the EU10 with no energy generated by nucear power pants. Poand s dependence on domesticay avaiabe coa is one of the highest in the word. Over 90 percent of eectricity in Poand is generated from coa and ignite (Figure 10), which is the highest share in the EU. Figure 9. Energy consumption by fue, 2007 Figure 10. Eectricity city generat n by fue, 2007 07 Coa Oi Natura gas Nucear Renewabes Other 100% 12 8 7 5 9 13 6 13 80% 21 21 24 26 60% 25 34 40% 36 57 20% 39 26 18 0% Word EU27 EU10 Poand Coa Natura Gas Oi Nucear Renewabes Other 100% 16 9 3 0 3 80% 20 28 60% 10 91 40% 23 59 20% 29 0% EU27 EU10 Poand Note: Energy consumption is gross inand nd consumption of energy. ergy Source: European Commission, miss ion, Word Bank staff cacuns. Poand has made considerabe advances in energy efficiency in the past 20 years; yet further efforts are required to bring it to Western European standards. Per unit of GDP, Poand s economy is sti more than twice as energy intensive as the EU average. 18 Advances in energy efficiency, which were dramatic during 1988 to 2000, have sowed during the most recent decade (see Figure 11). Consumption of energy per of GDP has faen by haf during 1990 to 2007, from 781 tons of oi equivaent required for every hundred miion euros of output to 400. From a eve of energy intensity 3.4 times higher than the EU average, Poand as of 2007 stands 2.4 times above the EU. 18 Aternative statistics, using GDP adjusted for purchasing power parity, as reported by the IEA, suggest a smaer gap between Poand s and Western European energy intensity of about 30 percent.

Figure 11. Energy intensity nsity in EU27 and Poand, in toe/m 850 750 781 Poand energy intensity EU27 energy intensity Poand EU27 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 233 400 169 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 toe/m Note: Energy intensity ty is the r of gross inand consumption of energy (in toe, tons of oi equivaent) ent) to GDP (in miions ions of euros at 2000 prices). Source: European Commission, miss ion, Word Bank staff cacuns. Whie the energy sector currenty dominates Poand s emissions profie, emissions from the transport sector have been growing at a high rate. Energy sector emissions have faen by one-third since 1988, athough the sector sti produces near haf of the country s greenhouse gases. Transport, on the other hand, whie constituting about 10 percent of overa GHG emissions has grown by amost three-quarters since transition. Moreover, Poand sti has reativey ow rates of motorizn, which argues that the growth of road transport wi ikey be high going forward. Further compicating the picture is the very high share of used vehices, which tend to be much more fue inefficient and pouting (see Figure 12). Figure 12. Change in GHG emissio ns by key sector, 1988 to 2006, in percent Energy sector -30.1 Mfg. & construction Transport -20.5 73.5 Other sectors -51.4 Industria processes -17.1-60 -40-20 0 20 40 60 80 Note: Industria processes emissions ions consist st of by-product or fugitive emissions ions of greenhouse gases, excuding emissions sion from fue combustion. on. Source: UNFCCC, CC, Greenhouse Gas Inventory, 2006. 06. The eve and structu re of Poand s greenhouse emissions wi be important as the next sections ay out the chaenges of moving towards a ower carbon growth path. Poand s overa carbon intensity of GDP, the sectora composition of emissions, its dependence on coa, and its progress to date wi a be important factors in assessing the economic costs of abatement. The combinn of arge energy and carbon efficiency gaps in Poand and huge investment requirements in energy, infrastructure, and housing suggests there is a substantia scope for cimate-smart poicy choices that woud ikey yied benefits regardess of cimate deveopments.