Buildings energy efficiency sessions done in partnership with: Energy Efficiency Training Week Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings Buildings Session 2
Energy Efficiency Training Week Buildings: Program 1. Where to start: Understanding building energy use 2. Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings 3. Toolkit: Building technologies for low energy buildings 4. Toolkit: Building energy efficiency policies 5. What are the steps: Set targets and develop policies 6. What are the steps: Building energy codes 7. What are the steps: Incentives for energy efficient buildings 8. Did it work: Tracking progress with energy efficiency indicators 9. Did it work: Evaluating the multiple benefits of energy efficiency in buildings 10. Where do I get help: International collaborations
Drivers of building energy use Global buildings energy use relative to key drivers 50% 45% GDP Percent change relative to 2000 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Floor Area Households Energy Population 0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Source: IEA Energy Statistics, 2014; IMF, 2014; UN DESA, 2014
Getting it right: from the start Typical lifetimes of energy consuming buildings stock and equipment Source: IEA Buildings Code Policy Pathway 2013
16 000 Getting it right: priority setting Example residential floor area growth 14 000 12 000 Floor area (million m2) 10 000 8 000 6 000 New Stock (nzeb) New Stock (Non compliant) New Stock (Compliant) Retrofit Stock Historic Stock (Before 2015) 4 000 2 000 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060 2065 2070 2075 Source: IEA Buildings Model
Example of savings by reconstruction. Czech Republic We can build and retrofit buildings to achieve 60 90% savings as compared to standard practice in all climate zones (providing similar or increased service levels) Before reconstruction over 150 kwh/(m²a) Reconstruction according to the passive house principle 15 kwh/(m²a) -90% Source: Jan Barta, Center for Passive Buildings, www.pasivnidomy.cz, EEBW2006
Net Zero Energy Buildings In aiming for zero fossil fuel energy use as quickly as possible, an economical energy strategy would implement some combination of: reduced demand for energy; use of available waste heat from industrial, commercial, or decentralized electricity production; on-site production of sustainable energy; Combined with off-site supply of carbon-free and low impact energy, taking into account all the costs and benefits and the reliability of various options. Science House at the Science Museum of Minnesota
IEA energy efficiency potential analysis Global emissions trajectories to 2050 (ETP 2014) Gt CO 2 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Nuclear 7% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% Renewables 30% End use fuel switching 9% CCS 14% End use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014
60 IEA energy efficiency potential analysis Energy efficiency provides largest contribution to emissions abatement Gt CO 2 50 40 Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% 30 20 10 End use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% 0 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014
Importance of Energy Efficiency Global building energy growth and savings potential to 2050 Final energy demand (EJ) 190 180 170 160 150 140 130 Other (Services) Appliances Cooking Lighting Water heating Space cooling Space heating 120 110 100 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014
Emissions Savings Potential Global building emissions growth and savings potential to 2050 Direct emissions (GtCO2) 16 14 12 10 8 6 Indirect savings Other (Services) Appliances Cooking Lighting Water heating Space cooling Space heating 4 2 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Source: IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2014
Global energy efficiency potential More than 80% of energy efficiency potential in buildings are currently unrealised in existing policies Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2012
12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Efficiency potential Lighting intensity (energy per floor area) Historic 6DS 4DS 2DS? Average Lighting Energy Intensity (kwh/m 2 ) 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Efficiency potential Lighting demand intensity (the need for light) The right technology choices make a significant difference 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Average Lighting Demand Intensity (kwh/m 2 ) Historic 6DS 4DS 2DS Source: Sage Electrochromics
Equipment Share (%) Efficiency potential Lighting intensity (energy per floor area) Technology choice: many (if not most) energy efficient building technologies are already on the market. Need the right policy/market signals to increase adoption 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2015 2025 2035 2045 2025 2035 2045 2025 2035 6DS 4DS 2DS 2045 Halogen LED CFL Fluorescent Incandescent Oil lamp
Efficiency potential Lighting intensity (energy per floor area) Technology efficiency: gains can still be expected with many building technologies (again with policy and market signals, e.g. RDD&D programmes needed to move technology adoption to scale) Energy Savings (6DS to 2DS) by Contribution (EJ) 0.08 0.07 0.06 0.05 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 Intensity Improvement Equipment Efficiency Technology Switching Demand Efficiency 0 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Technology Efficiency Technology Choice
Buildings energy efficiency sessions done in partnership with: Energy Efficiency Training Week Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings Buildings Session 2
Energy efficiency potential Looking for answers 1. Why is it important to know the potential? 2. What is energy efficiency potential in buildings? 3. How big is it? 4. How to estimate it? 5. What are the challenges?
(Professor/Author) OECD/IEA 2015
(Scientist)
Energy efficiency potential Definition Energy efficiency potential: the ability of the system to use less energy to provide the same or improved level of service How much less energy we can use?
Global energy efficiency potential The largest low cost potential to 2030 Source: IPCC 2007
Potential to reduce final energy use for space heating & cooling through energy efficiency Global energy efficiency potential Source: IPCC 2014
Global final energy scenarios in the building A range of predictions from a range of models Dashed lines show integrated models, solid lines show other sectoral/bottom up models Source: Buildings. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC 2014
Energy efficiency potential Key messages from scenario analysis 1. Growth without action Building energy use is projected to grow significantly in the next few decades. Without action, total building final energy use, and thus corresponding emissions, are expected to grow by 60 90% of the 2005 value by 2050, as demonstrated by different reference scenarios, from about 110 EJ to approximately 165 200 EJ. The final energy demand for thermal energy needs, i.e. heating/cooling/hot water is likely to grow even more dynamically without action: two of the three models already show over a 50% increase by 2030 in the reference scenarios. Source: GBPN 2012
Energy efficiency potential Key messages from scenario analysis 2. Energy efficiency alone is not enough Improved efficiency alone will not bring the sector s emissions anywhere near what is needed for reaching ambitious climate targets. Even the most ambitious scenarios are only able to compensate for the increase in service demand, i.e. total final energy use at best stays constant until 2050 for the entire sector. This means that in order to reach stringent climate goals, policies pushing for energy-efficiency need to go hand-in-hand with the other levers such as switching to low-carbon fuels (renewables) and encouraging behavioral and lifestyle change. Source: GBPN 2012
Energy efficiency potential Key messages from scenario analysis 3. Thermal energy use has high potential There are significantly larger opportunities for bringing heating/cooling energy use down compared to other building end-uses. While total building final energy use stays roughly constant or even increases in most ambitious scenarios, models focusing on thermal energy uses demonstrate the possibility of major absolute reductions up to 60% reduction by 2050, as compared to 2005. Source: GBPN 2012
Energy efficiency potential Key messages from scenario analysis 4. Holistic approach is a priority Policies focusing on holistic/systemic opportunities in buildings are likely to achieve much more significant reductions than those focusing on individual building components. Although further work is needed; this research indicates that it is likely that performancebased building policies are able to unlock substantially larger heating/cooling energy efficiency potentials than policies focusing on individual technologies/components. Source: GBPN 2012
Energy efficiency potential Key messages from scenario analysis 5. The longer the term, the larger the potential Studies optimizing mitigation over a longer period achieved higher and more dynamic reductions as opposed to studies focusing on the shorter-term. For example, for models focusing on thermal uses, the global CO2 emissions in 2030 reference to 2010, are projected to be reduced by an average of 13% in case of short-time models, while long-time models project an average reduction of 34%. This points to the crucial importance of strategic, long-term policy-making and the stability of policy structures, as opposed to policies aimed at the short-term. While this is difficult in a short-term political election-cycle reality, infrastructure is built for the long-term and thus requires policy continuity. Source: GBPN 2012
(Statistician)
Energy efficiency potential modelling Example: 3CSEP HEB & GBPN BEPS model Models: 3CSEP High Efficiency Buildings model & GBPN Building Energy Performance Scenarios model Considers buildings as complete systems rather than sums of components performance based approach Recognizes that State of the art building energy performance can be achieved through a broad variety of designs and component combinations Systemic gains are important when buildings are optimised to very high energy performance, not typically captured by modelling buildings by components Best practice are selected from the energy performance and investment costs perspective Assumes that Existing best practices become the standard (both in new construction AND renovation) after a certain transition time Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency potential modelling Example: Modeling logic for 3CSEP HEB Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency potential modelling Example: Uses of 3CSEP HEB 2007-2011 2011-2012 2012-2014 Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
Deep Efficiency Energy efficiency potential modelling Policy relevant techno economic scenarios Moderate Efficiency Frozen Efficiency State-of-the-art technologies Full thermal comfort Accelerated retrofit rate from 1.4 to 3% by 2020 New buildings are built to regional standards Renovations achieve app. 30% energy savings After 2022 today s building best-practices will become the standard The energy efficiency of WH increases rapidly Recent policy trends (e.g. EPBD in the EU) Global retrofit rate = 1.4% Accelerated retrofit rate from 1.4 to 2.1% in EU and US, 1.6 in China, 1.5 in India by 2020 New buildings are built to regional standards Renovations achieve app. 30% energy savings WH efficiency measures are not more ambitious than current Hypothetical future - without policy and market developments Fixed retrofit rate = 1.4% Energy performance of new and retrofit buildings does not improve as compared to their 2005 levels Renovations achieve app. 10% energy savings Advanced buildings introduced only in Western Europe (1% of New BS) Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
Billion m 2 400 350 300 Energy efficiency potential modelling Scenarios: Floor area vs. thermal energy use World floor area World final thermal energy use EJ 160 140 250 200 150 100 50 +111% +48% -29% 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Single-family Urban Single-family Rural Multifamily Office Education Hotels & Restaurants Retail Hospitals Other Slums Deep Moderate Frozen Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 EJ 2005 Deep Urban US Moderate Rural Energy efficiency potential modelling Scenarios: Urban vs. Rural EJ 120 100 Frozen EJ 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 World 2005 Deep Urban EU-27 Moderate Rural Frozen 10 India 5 EJ 0 20 10 0 2005 Deep Moderate 20 15 Frozen EJ 2005 Deep China Moderate Frozen Rural Urban 80 60 Urban Rural Slums 40 20 0 2005 Deep Moderate Frozen Slums Rural Urban Dominant share of building energy use is urban despite the fact that the rural population is still larger Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency potential modelling Scenarios: Deep efficiency US EU-27 2005 2050 India China Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency potential modelling Scenarios: Lock in effect Unlocking energy savings potential in the future will either be extremely expensive, or technologically unfeasible for several more decades. Early action is crucial to lock in energy savings. 80 EJ 70 60 50 40 Lock-in Effect 80% 46% 34% 30 20 10 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Moderate Efficiency Deep Efficiency
Energy efficiency potential modelling Scenarios: Lock in effect (heating &cooling) US EU-27 India China Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
Energy efficiency potential modelling Building Energy Performance Scenarios Free tool available for use globally from GBPN. http://www.gbpn.org/databases tools/mrv tool/scenario data analysis Source: GBPN
Energy efficiency potential modelling Online Tool Demo Free tool available for use globally from GBPN. START http://www.gbpn.org/databases tools/mrv tool/scenario data analysis Task 1: Potential by scenario Aim: What is the potential building energy use for space heating and cooling under different scenarios by 2050? Task 2: Potential by building type Aim: What is the potential thermal energy use in selected building types under different scenarios by 2050? Scenarios: Deep, Moderate, Frozen Time period: 2005-2050 Regions: LAC, NAM, AFR, WEU End-uses: SH&C Building types: All Building vintages: All Scenarios: Deep, Moderate Time period: 2005-2050 Regions: FSU, SAS End-uses: total thermal (SH&C + WH) Building types: SF, MF, Office, Hospitals Building vintages: All Source: Copenhagen Centre on Energy Efficiency
Discussion
Energy Efficiency Training Week (Buildings) 2. Where to start: Energy efficiency potential in buildings Trainers: John Dulac, Ksenia Petrichenko Purpose: To teach emerging professionals in the emerging economies about basic fundamentals of the building energy efficiency markets including IEA s potential scenarios analysis. Content: This course will discuss the energy efficiency potential in each of the emerging economies and in IEA member countries using IEA s 6DS, 4DS and 2DS potential analysis. This course will also continue the discussion of the basic fundamentals of how energy is used in buildings and draw links to how there is potential for energy efficiency at both the building level and at the sector level within each country.