Review of Services producer price indices for Freight transport by road Industry description for SNI group 60.240 Camilla Andersson Rolf Björnsson Mical Tareke Services producer price indices, Price Statistics Unit, Statistics Sweden December 2007
Foreword As part of the process to improve economic statistics, producer price indices for services, Services producer price indices (SPPIs), were developed a few years ago. The primary aim of SPPIs is to measure price trends in business services. Services production has made up a large share of Sweden's gross domestic product (GDP) for a long time, but relevant price indices were not developed to any great extent before the year 2000. This can partly be given historical explanations: commodities have previously made up a dominant part of the economy and economic statistics have also been focused on commodities. Another reason is that measuring price trends in services is complicated. As another step in improving economic statistics, regular reviews are made of the developed indices. This is because many industries are constantly changing at the same time as we price statisticians gain more experience from different industries and countries and can more clearly see improvement opportunities. Acknowledgement Thanks to our data providers - private individuals, companies, authorities and organisations - Statistics Sweden is able to provide reliable and up-to-date statistics that satisfy society's need for information. 4
Contents Foreword...4 1 Introduction...6 2. The survey today...7 2.1 Transport of goods...7 2.2 Price measurement methods...8 2.3 The sample...8 2.4 Collection...8 2.5 Weighting and calculations...9 3 Problems...9 3.1 Price measurement methods...9 3.2 SNI classification...10 3.3 Domestic market and exports...10 4 Contacts...10 4. 1 Trade organisations...10 4. 2 Companies...11 4. 3 Statistics Sweden...12 5 Improvements...12 5.1 Price measurement methods and form design...12 5.2 Sampling...13 5.3 Domestic market and exports...13 STATISTICS SWEDEN 5
1 Introduction Review of SPPIs for freight transport by road This report is a review of the existing freight transport by road survey. Apart from recommendations to perform regular reviews of developed indices, the following difficulties have also been highlighted within the industry and these form the basis of the review. Road transport services are often tailor-made for each customer and pricing depends on a number of different, constantly changing factors. It can also be a problem to distinguish the services from one another. Services producer price indices for road transport were developed in 2003 and the model pricing method was chosen to follow price trends in the industry. The method is based on choosing a number of services that are representative of the activities of a particular industry, in consultation with companies operating on the market. Each time measurements are taken, a company provides data on what respective services would have cost even if they haven't been performed. The method gradually proved to be both difficult and timeconsuming to employ in practice within the industry. We have been aware of the need to review the present method but a lack of staffing resources meant we have previously been unable to perform the review. This report discusses a number of problem areas that have been localised and proposals for improvements that have been put forward after discussions with, among others, road hauliers, trade organisations and not least perhaps based on our own experience of three years' of producing price indices for transport. The main improvement proposals relate to price measurement methods, price measurement variables and sample units. 6
2 The survey today 2.1 Transport of goods The Price Statistics Unit at Statistics Sweden currently performs price measurements in several transport areas in accordance with SNI 2002. Apart from this review of Freight transport by road, a similar review of Freight transport by water has also been performed. It should also be pointed out that the changes proposed as a result of this review of road transport will to some extent affect price measurement in SNI 63.400, Activities of other transport agencies. Prices of goods transport services measured within SPPI Transport services 60.10 Transport via railways 60.240 Freight transport by road Lorry and articulated lorry freight transport Furniture removal Lorry and driver rental 61 Water transport Passenger and freight transport by ships and boats in foreign and coastal waters and inland waterways, line bound or not Operation of excursion and tourist boats Operation of ferries and taxi boats 62 Air transport Passenger and freight transport by air and space travel 63.400 Activities of other transport agencies Shipping agencies Forwarding agents Lorry depots STATISTICS SWEDEN 7
2.2 Price measurement methods Road transport services are in many cases unique and it can therefore be difficult to find stable and repetitive services, the prices of which can be measured from one period to the next. Based on the experiences of other countries and in consultation with companies in the industry, the model pricing method was chosen to follow price trends. The method applied for road transport consists of selecting 1-5 services for both Swedish and foreign customers that are representative of the activities, in consultation with companies in the industry. These services are specified with regard to a number of price variables such as goods type, customer, cargo type, cargo volume and distance. According to the method, the company states what the service costs for each quarter, provided that the values of the abovementioned price variables remain unchanged. This is done even if the transport service in question has not been performed. Even if the idea is to use "model price measurements", we assume that most of the collected price data are a mixture of unit values - turnover divided by sold volume - and actual contract prices. 2.3 The sample The sampling procedure functions in much the same way as in most other SPPI surveys. Companies are selected with the help of a PPS 1 sample measured in terms of turnover where the Statistics Sweden Business Register is used as a sampling frame. These companies can then themselves select the services that are representative of their activities. The sample is drawn from SNI 60.240 Freight transport by road and covers lorry and articulated lorry freight transport, furniture removal services and lorry and driver rental. The sample size is 75 companies out of a total of 8 540. The sample size is determined by the industry's turnover. 2.4 Collection Price data are collected every quarter online or on paper forms. Companies that submit data online receive a user-id and password to be able to submit data via the web. 1 Probability proportional to size, a sampling method where companies are more likely to be selected, the bigger they are. 8
2.5 Weighting and calculations Indices are calculated by first computing an unweighted geometric mean value of the services in the company and then weighing all company indices together geometrically with turnover figures from the Business Register. The large companies have their own weights based on their turnover and the small companies then share the remainder of the total weight among themselves. Indices are calculated for the domestic market, exports and in total. 3 Problems 3.1 Price measurement methods Even if model pricing is perhaps a good method theoretically, it is not applicable in practice to Freight transport by road. The method is very resource-demanding and requires good knowledge of both the industry as well as price theory, both among the data providers and at Statistics Sweden. The respondents have probably often had sufficient knowledge of the industry (or at least known whom to consult) but have not had the financial incentive to spend a sufficient amount of time on the survey. Today, we don't know how many data providers actually use the method when collecting prices. The data providers can e.g. change the distance, destination, cargo type and cargo volume even though, according to the model pricing method, these should be kept constant. Prices submitted from the same company might refer to completely different services from one quarter to the next. They change the factors that are supposed to be fixed and submit prices of different services. On those occasions when the data provider has adjusted the price due to a change in one of the price variables cargo volume and/or distance, we have tried to perform a quantity adjustment. In certain cases, the services are completely incomparable and the price data cannot therefore be used in the calculations. STATISTICS SWEDEN 9
3.2 SNI classification According to the current SNI classification, private hauliers have been classified in SNI 60.240 Freight transport by road, whereas lorry depots - to which a number of haulage companies are affiliated - are classified in SNI 63.400 Activities of other transport agencies. This classification leads to a number of practical problems. Haulage companies are generally small and find it difficult therefore to set aside staff and time to submit price data. This has caused relatively substantial non-response. According to the Swedish Hauliers' Association (Sveriges Åkeriföretag), the trade organisation for private hauliers and most lorry depots, Statistics Sweden should approach the lorry depots to collect price data. For more information, please see 5.2. 3.3 Domestic market and exports After contacting several companies in the industry, we found out that there is no difference between prices for Swedish companies and prices for foreign companies. The crucial factor is whether the transport is cross-border or not. 4 Contacts In connection with the review, the two largest trade organisations for freight haulers, the Swedish Freight Industry Association (Transportindustriförbundet) and the Swedish Hauliers' Association, were contacted. We have also contacted a large logistics company, a number of lorry depots and private hauliers. We have also collected data from the Construction and Real Estate Unit at Statistics Sweden, which compiles background data for what is known as the SÅ (Swedish Hauliers' Association) Index. For more information, please see 4.3. 4. 1 Trade organisations The Swedish Freight Industry Association has about 110 member companies from all fields of activity within the freight industry: road, rail, air and sea freight, ports and terminals, storage facilities and other logistics services At the meeting with the Swedish Freight Industry Association, we found out the following: All the major member companies act as 10
agents for transport services within one or, most commonly, several of the abovementioned types of transport. Some of these companies also have their own operations, i.e. perform transport services with their own vehicles. Lorry depots are doing more and more logistics, i.e. not only transport but also storage, etc. Some of them are also involved in construction. For example, some companies that previously only transported prefabricated building units to building sites are now involved in the actual building phase. Third-party logistics, i.e. when a company completely or almost completely takes over another company's material management (transport, storage, packing, etc.) has increased in recent years and will no doubt continue to increase. If the material management assignment is very extensive, several transport/logistics companies might work together. Intermodal transport, i.e. haulage assignments in which different means of transport are used, is also on the rise. The Swedish Hauliers' Association is the trade organisation for hauliers in Sweden. The Association has about 10 000 member companies. About half of the country's haulage companies are affiliated to a haulage agency or lorry depot, whilst the other half are independent in that they sign agreements with the customer (industrial and trading companies) directly. The Swedish Hauliers' Association stresses that the prices in the haulage industry are based on cost indices, SÅ indices (see above), for a number of typevehicles. These in turn are adapted according to e.g. the type of goods to be transported. 4. 2 Companies Contracts normally run for one to three years and, if they run for several years, are usually regulated by SÅ indices. Fuel supplements, that apply if the price of diesel goes up by a certain percent, are also common. The price depends on many factors, such as the distance and the vehicle type. Some lorry depots have divided the distances into intervals and set a price on each interval. As regards vehicle types, the price can be different if a haulage assignment is carried out using a double-axle lorry compared with a triple- or quadruple-axle vehicle. Whether the vehicle has a trailer also affects the price. Furthermore, the price is influenced by the purpose for which the type-vehicle is intended, e.g. construction, distribution, forest or long-range piece goods. The cargo volume is, STATISTICS SWEDEN 11
however, mostly an uninteresting price variable. When setting prices, no distinction is made between foreign and Swedish customers. The SÅ indices are generally lower than the actual price in times of economic prosperity and generally higher in a recession. Not only the infrastructure but also the industry structure has considerable bearing on transport prices. An example of this is that when times are prosperous, the inflow of goods to Stockholm, which has a large population and a lot of commercial activity, increases, but since the city has no industrial output to speak of, the vehicles return empty most of the time, which pushes up the price. If Stockholm were an industrial city, there would be more return haulage and hence lower prices. The prices of overseas transport fluctuate more and are more difficult to predict than domestic prices, due, among other things, to currency fluctuations. 4. 3 Statistics Sweden The Construction and Real Estate Unit produces background data for the SÅ indices, which is a cost index. Many hauliers use the indices to adjust their prices; a typical index is called "T92 excluding fuel". The indices measure cost trends for a number of specific typevehicles in the forest, construction, distribution and long-range piece goods sectors. 5 Improvements 5.1 Price measurement methods and form design As previously mentioned, "Model price measurement" (see 3.1) has not worked as a method, so we intend instead to use the prices the customer actually has to pay - transaction prices. Data providers themselves select 1-5 transport services/contracts for both domestic and overseas road transport that then represent the company's activities. After visits to a number of companies and visits to the Construction and Real Estate Unit, we have decided to make a few changes to the 12
survey form. Since the price of the service is mostly dependent on the type of lorry used, we have decided to include the four typevehicles, on which SÅ indices are based, in the form. The data provider then specifies the type of lorry used for the transport assignment. The important thing is that the data provider knows which lorry the price refers to when filling in the form for the next quarter. We have also added more cargo types, so that we follow the same classification as the Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis. This gives us weight data for the different goods types. Price data are to be stated per unit, e.g. per tonne, kilometre, hour, etc., and the terms "Swedish customers" and "foreign customers" have been changed to "domestic road transport" and "overseas road transport" respectively (See 5.3). To examine whether the company uses SÅ indices when regulating prices, the data provider can state which specific SÅ index has been used. These data allow us to compare price trends against cost trends. 5.2 Sampling In accordance with proposals from the Swedish Hauliers' Association (see 3.2), we will primarily turn to lorry depots in order to collect price data. These generally have more administrative resources and a better idea of prices than private hauliers. Since a larger lorry depot can have between fifty and a hundred affiliated hauliers, it covers a substantially larger share of the road haulage assignments carried out in the country than a private haulier does. A change-over in price collection from many private hauliers to a smaller number of lorry depots will also reduce the overall burden on the companies to provide data. We might also use the Swedish Hauliers' Association lorry depot register. To test the new price measurement method, the new sample and the new form will be used in parallel with the existing survey method for the first three quarters of 2008. 5.3 Domestic market and exports The current form measures prices for cash flows from Sweden to overseas. The service can be performed either in Sweden or overseas but the company paying must have a foreign address. After the company visits we made, we realised that it makes no difference STATISTICS SWEDEN 13
whether the customer has a Swedish or foreign address, the pricing is the same. What is important to follow is the transport service itself. Is it cross-border or not? For this reason, we will make some changes to the form so that it can tell us whether the transport service is performed inside or outside Sweden's borders. 14