BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN DEBT

Transcription

1 BALANCE OF PAYMENTS AND FOREIGN DEBT V 1. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS In 1997, the external current account deficit was 8.1 billion krónur, corresponding to 1. percent of GDP. It declined from 8.9 b.kr., or 1.8 percent of GDP, in 199. The 1997 current account deficit was much smaller than had been projected in the national economic forecast, both because of higher exports and lower imports in volume terms, but also because the terms of trade improved. Previously there had been a surplus on the current account for three years in a row, , with foreign debt declining during those years, which in turn led to declining interest payments abroad, which have been one of the largest factors behind persistent current account deficits in recent decades. Table V.1. Balance of payments summary Billions of krónur at average 1997 exchange rates Exports of goods and services Imports of goods and services Net income and transfers Current balance Trade balance Services balance Balance on income Current transfers, net Financial account excl. reserves Direct investment Portfolio investment Other capital Reserve assets Errors and omissions

2 % Balance of payments Percentage of GDP Current account Foreign exchange reserves Other capitals Foreign trade 1 month change at a fixed exchange rate at the end of each quarter % Export Import The external capital account balance recorded a surplus of 13 b.kr. in The Central Bank's international reserves declined by 3. b.kr. and other capital flows were measured at 1 b.kr., mainly because of foreign direct investment and foreign borrowing by credit institutions. International reserves stood at 8 b.kr. at the end of 1997, down from 31 b.kr. at the end of 199. Table V.1 shows the main items in the balance of payments over the last five years, with figures for earlier years expressed in terms of the average exchange rate for A more detailed breakdown of the balance of payments can be found in Table in the Statistical Appendix. It should be noted that the figures for 1997 are to some extent preliminary. The errors and omissions term, negative by 5. b.kr., was particularly large in This means either that the current account deficit was larger or capital inflows smaller than indicated by the preliminary figures. There are indications that imports to power-intensive industry may have been underestimated. A fluctuating sign for the errors and omissions terms indicates that there may be lags in recording certain items in the balance of payments when external transactions are not recorded at the same time as the associated payments are made. It has proved difficult to adjust information about the balance of payments to changes in financial markets and more liberal capital flows to and from the country. Current account The current account balance can be broken down into four main components, namely, the merchandise trade balance, the service balance, the balance on income and the balance of unrequited transfers. In 1997, trade in goods and services grew. The currency value of exports grew by 1. percent while that of imports grew by 9.7 percent from the year before. The balance on income deteriorated by 1 b.kr. while in net terms the balance of unrequited transfers improved by. b.kr. The current

3 account deficit therefore declined in 1997 to 8.1 b.kr. from 8.9 b.kr. in 199. Merchandise trade balance The merchandise trade balance was in surplus to the tune of.3 b.kr. in 1997, down from 1. b.kr. in Total exports amounted to 131. b.kr. and increased by.5 percent at fixed exchange rates. Exports of fisheries products rose by 3. percent, to 93. b.kr. With other merchandise exports growing faster than marine exports, the share of the fisheries in total exports declined somewhat. The currency value of aluminium and ferrosilicon exports rose by 1. percent, to 18.9 b.kr. Exports of ships and aeroplanes were 5. b.kr., up 1 b.kr. on 199. This item has been significant for a number of years because of the renewal of the domestic fleets of ships and aeroplanes. The currency value of other exports rose by 5.3 percent. Total merchandise imports were 131 b.kr. in 1997, up 7.3 percent on 199 at fixed exchange rates. Imports of investment goods rose by 18.5 percent, to 3.7 b.kr. Imports of transportation equipment rose by only 1. percent because of a decline in ship imports, while imports of private cars rose by 3 percent over 199. Other merchandise imports, namely fuels, operating goods, food and beverages and other consumer goods, rose by.7 percent in 1997 according to information from Statistics Iceland. The European Economic Area is the most important market for Icelandic exports, accounting for 7 percent of merchandise exports. Exports to EFTA countries have increased somewhat after falling sharply when Sweden, Finland and Austria joined the EU at the beginning of A third of exports goes to two EU countries, the United Kingdom and Germany, and around a fifth of imports originates there. The importance of Japan has declined in recent years. The Japanese market absorbed only. percent of merchandise exports in 1997, down from 1 percent in 199. Exports to the United States increased in 1997, as did exports to non-eea European countries. The country weights of imports changed little in 1997, with only the EFTA countries showing some decline. Table V.. Merchandise trade by countries In % of total imports and exports Exports f.o.b. Imports c.i.f EFTA EU Other European countries North America Japan Other countries Total Current account Quarterly balance At average 1997 exchange rates B.kr. Current balance Balance on goods Balance on services Net income and transfers

4 Service balance The service balance recorded a surplus of 3. b.kr. in 1997, up from 1. b.kr. in 199. Service exports rose by 19.3 percent, to 59 b.kr., while service imports rose 15. percent. The transport component of service exports grew sharply, mainly because of increased merchandise exports and increased activity by airlines and shipping companies abroad. Revenue from foreign tourists rose by 7. percent which was in line with the growth in nightly stays, but the number of foreign tourists rose by only. percent. Spending by Icelanders travelling abroad rose by 1.1 percent, to 3 b.kr. Other service exports, such as communications services, insurance, construction, government services (embassies and the defence force), computers and information services, and especially other business services, grew sharply. The last item includes agency services, expert services, rental income, advertisements, marketing, etc. On the whole, revenue from exports of other services than tourism and transportation were 1 b.kr. and expenditure on the same 15 b.kr. in Balance on income The income accounts cover salaries, interest and dividends. Salaries amounted to.1 b.kr. in 1997, up 1 percent on 199. The increase in salary-related payments was larger, but they amounted to only. b.kr. The defence force accounted for more than one-half of the salaries, which along with other revenue from the defence force amounted to 11 b.kr. in Investment income amounted to b.kr. in 1997, an increase of about a quarter over 199 and related to a buildup of assets abroad. On the expenditure side, investment income rose by 1. percent, to b.kr., almost entirely because of increased earnings to foreign direct investors. The interest burden on the foreign debt was 1.8 b.kr. in 1997, up marginally from 1. b.kr. in 199. Net interest payments abroad averaged about 1 percent of export revenue during the 198s but have declined proportionally in recent years, to 7.8 percent in The recording of income accounts in the balance of payments is in line with new standards from the International Monetary Fund. Reinvested profits from foreign direct investment have been added to investment income whereas previously only dividend payments were included. This means in fact that profits on foreign direct investment are recorded in the balance of payments when they accrue rather than when they are realized. The share of residents in the profits of foreign companies is counted as factor service revenue while the share of foreigners in domestic firms is counted as expenditure. The reinvestment of profits is also entered in the capital balance and counted as foreign direct investment. Large fluctuations in the profitability of companies during this decade have caused the impact of reinvested profits on the balance of investment income and the current account balance to vary. Large losses among companies with significant foreign ownership during improved the current account balance by 1 b.kr. However, more

5 Table V.3. The capital and financial account In millions of krónur at average 1997 exchange rate Capital and financial account Capital transfer, net Financial account Financial acc. excl. reserves Direct investment, net Abroad In Iceland Portfolio investment, net Assets Liabilities Other capital, net Assets Liabilities Reserve assets Negative sign indicates ouflow of capital, increase in assets or decline of liabilities. recently the profit of foreign-owned companies has exceeded the profit share of residents in foreign companies by 1. b.kr. Current transfers Current transfers include mainly government payments to international institutions and official development aid, but also private transfers of gifts, grants, inheritances, etc. Current government transfers amounted to.7 b.kr. in 1997 while in net terms private transfers were positive by.9 b.kr. On the whole, the balance of current transfers showed a surplus of. b.kr., compared to a deficit of.5 b.kr. in 199. Capital account The capital account of the balance of payments has two components, net capital transfers and the financial account. Net capital transfers, which mainly relate to migration to and from the country, do not measure in billions of krónur. In 1997, net capital transfers were slightly negative after having been slightly positive in 199. The financial account showed a surplus of 13. b.kr. in 1997, up from 7.8 b.kr. in 199. Capital flows to and from the country can be broken down into two main components: changes in the Central Bank's reserves, and other capital flows related to foreign direct investment, trade in securities and other capital transactions, such as with commercial liabilities, loan movements, etc. The Central Bank's reserves declined by 3. b.kr. and other capital flows to the country amounted to 1 b.kr. in This large inflow of capital was the result of heavy foreign direct investment and foreign borrowing by financial institutions, especially the banks. Net inflows from foreign borrowing were 3. b.kr., about evenly divided between long-term and short-term loans. Significant outflows occurred in relation to the purchase of foreign securities and asset accumulation by deposit banks abroad. 5 Net purchases of foreign securities issued abroad Quarterly figures at average B.kr exchange rate

6 Direct investment in businesses and real estate abroad by Icelanders was 1.8 b.kr. in New investment grew by 1 b.kr., while preliminary information on financial flows between parent companies and their subsidiaries during the first half of the year indicates that they were in broad balance. Foreign direct investment in Iceland rose sharply because of increased investment in power-intensive industry and higher profits at existing companies. On the whole, foreign direct investment was 9 b.kr. in 1997, up from b.kr. in 199. New investment was 3.8 b.kr., while reinvested profits amounted to.5 b.kr. and net lending by shareholders was positive by. b.kr. Foreign investment is defined by the OECD to be direct if the ownership share is significant enough to ensure influence on the management of the company; a 1 percent ownership share is typically the threshold. Foreign investment in shares below this threshold is usually counted as portfolio investment, as its sole purpose is to earn a return on capital investments. Net capital outflows in connection with the purchase of securities were 1.8 b.kr. in 1997, up from only 1.8 b.kr. in 199. Purchases of foreign securities by Icelanders grew sharply in 1997 and turnover also increased because of the resale of the foreign securities out of the country. Net purchases of registered foreign securities amounted to 1. b.kr. while non-residents purchased domestic securities for 1.5 b.kr. in Residents showed the greatest interest in risk capital as they purchase shares in foreign mutual funds for 1.7 b.kr. and in foreign companies for.1 b.kr. but only 1. b.kr. worth of foreign debt securities. Domestic investors prefer to diversify risk by investing in foreign mutual funds rather than by building their own portfolio. Purchases of domestic securities by non-residents are the result of the issuance of securities denominated in Icelandic kronur by foreign banks with the proceeds used for investment in Iceland. Net inflows of other capital amounted to 15.8 b.kr. in 1997, compared with b.kr. in 199. Foreign assets, commercial liabilities, deposits and other receivables from abroad rose by 7. b.kr. in 1997, compared with an increase of 3.5 b.kr. in 199. Deposit banks accounted for most of this asset accumulation abroad, which is a result of their need for foreign currency in order to engage in market making on the foreign exchange market. The foreign assets of non-financial companies also increased by 1.5 b.kr. in 1997 after having increased by.8 b.kr. the year before. Foreign debt has risen sharply over the last two years, or by 3.5 b.kr. and 3. b.kr. in 199 and 1997 respectively, in connection with high levels of domestic investment, as well as accumulation abroad. Net inflows of long-term foreign loans amounted to 13.3 b.kr., as gross borrowing of 37 b.kr. was partly balanced by amortization of b.kr. Net inflows of short-term loans amounted to 1.1 b.kr. The short-term foreign debt of deposit banks rose by 1.7 b.kr. and that of companies by.7 b.kr., while the short-term foreign debt of the Treasury declined by 5. b.kr. On the whole, the deposit banks were responsible for most of the increase in foreign indebtedness, or in excess

7 of 1 b.kr. in 199 and The public authorities lowered their indebtedness abroad by 3.3 b.kr. in net terms in 1997 as the Treasury amortized debt to the tune of. b.kr. while local governments borrowed 3.1 b.kr. abroad. Other domestic borrowers, investment funds and companies, increased their foreign debt by 5 b.kr. in FOREIGN DEBT The net foreign asset position of the economy, that is the net of assets and liabilities resulting form foreign direct investment, portfolio investment and lending and borrowing, was negative by b.kr. at the end of 1997, compared with at the end of 199 (see Table 7 in the Statistical Appendix). This was the first time that foreign direct investment has been included in the country's net foreign asset position. Previously, information was not available and the International Monetary Fund has now asked for this information from its member countries. The annual change in the country's net foreign asset position reflects capital movements in the balance of payments adjusted for exchange rate changes. Iceland is among the indebted nations which is the reason for the focus on the foreign debt position and the burden of interest and amortization payments in recent years. Long-term foreign debt at the end of 1997 was 8.5 percent of GDP and has declined proportionally because of rapid GDP growth, from 51.9 percent at the end of 1995 and 5.5 percent at the end of 199, as is shown in the following overview of the country's foreign asset position. Long-term foreign debt stood at 55 b.kr. at the end of 1997, compared with 1 b.kr. at the end of 199. An overview of long-term debt for the period can be found in Table in the Statistical Appendix. The Treasury's long-term foreign debt stood at 11 b.kr. at the end of 1997, having fallen marginally in the course of the year. Local governments, on the other hand, raised their long-term foreign debt by 3.1 b.kr. in 1997 to 9.3 b.kr. at year-end. The long-term foreign % Long-term foreign debt and debt service End-of-year debt in % of GDP Debt service in % of export revenue Interest service in % of export revenue Table V.. External debt and current account In % of GDP Long-term Net Balance of Balance of foreign Foreign external current investment debt assets debt account income

8 Net foreign position Fixed 1997 prices B.kr. Gross reserves Net foreign position debt of deposit banks and other financial institutions rose sharply in 1997, or from 1 b.kr. at the end of 199 to 7 b.kr. at the end of The long-term foreign debt of non-financial companies declined, however, in The debt service burden associated with interest and amortization payments on the long-term foreign debt was 19 percent of export earnings in 1997, down from percent in 199 and 8 percent in A lighter debt service burden is the result of both lower interest and amortization payments and higher export earnings. The interest burden has declined this decade, from around 11 percent of export earnings to.9 percent in 1997, as the average interest rate on foreign debt has declined by 3 percentage points, to 5. percent in Short-term foreign debt amounted to 73 b.kr. at the end of 1997 and increased considerably in the course of the year. On the whole, short-term and long-term debt amounted to 38 b.kr. at the end of 1997, of which general government was responsible for 135 b.kr., financial institutions for 11 b.kr. and companies for 7 b.kr. In addition, Icelanders owed non-residents b.kr. because of the latter's purchase of domestic securities, and foreign direct investment in Iceland is estimated at b.kr. The stock of foreign direct investment stood at 13 b.kr. at the end of 199 and this item rose sharply in the course of 1997 because of the heavy investment in power-intensive industry. Investment by Icelanders in businesses abroad has increased considerably in recent years and is put at 18 b.kr. at the end of Holdings by residents of foreign securities is estimated to have reached 3 b.kr. at the end of This is a large investment over a short period of time, mostly in the last four years after restrictions on capital movements to and from the country were lifted. Other Icelandic assets abroad were b.kr. at the end of 1997, having increased by 5 b.kr. in the course of the year, despite a decline in the Central Bank's foreign reserves by 3 b.kr. The Central Bank's reserves stood at 7.8 b.kr. at the end of 1997 compared with 3.8 b.kr. at the end of 199. At the end of 1997, the reserves corresponded to. months worth of merchandise imports and 1. months worth of imports of goods and services. The import coverage of the reserves had declined both because of the decline in the reserves and also because of the increase in imports. Reserves only consist of liquid foreign assets of the Central Bank which the Bank can use directly to finance a payments deficit vis-a-vis the rest of the world or indirectly through interventions on the foreign exchange market to influence the exchange rate of the krona. Other foreign assets of the Central Bank resulting from foreign exchange swaps with foreign banks were 5.5 b.kr. at the end of These assets are denominated in kronur and are therefore not included in the reserves according to the definition of the International Monetary Fund. Thus, at the end of 1997, the Central Bank's total foreign assets amounted to 33 b.kr. and total liabilities to 5. b.kr., giving a net foreign asset position of 7.9 b.kr., 3 b.kr. lower than a year earlier. 8