Option for a sustainable passenger transport sector in 2050

CIO, Center for Isotope Research IVEM, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies Master Programme Energy and Environmental Sciences University of Groningen Option for a sustainable passenger transport sector in 2050 Marco Kauw EES 2012-133 T

Training report of Marco Kauw Supervised by: Dr. R.M.J. Benders (IVEM) Dr. C. Visser (IVEM) University of Groningen CIO, Center for Isotope Research IVEM, Center for Energy and Environmental Studies Nijenborgh 4 9747 AG Groningen The Netherlands http://www.rug.nl/fmns-research/cio http://www.rug.nl/fmns-research/ivem

TABLE OF CONTENTS Summary (English)... 3 Samenvatting (Dutch)... 4 CHAPTER 1. Introduction... 5 CHAPTER 2. Current situation and expectations up to 2050... 9 2.2 Passenger vehicles... 10 2.2.1 Vehicles per capita... 10 2.2.2 Current vehicle fleet and projections... 10 2.3 Global travelled kilometres... 11 2.4 Energy demand... 12 2.5 Emissions... 13 2.6 Scenarios... 14 CHAPTER 3. Improvement of ICE vehicles... 15 3.1 General vehicle improvements... 15 3.2 Engine improvements... 16 3.3 Resource use... 17 3.3.1 Oil consumption, production and reserves... 17 3.4 Sustainable CO 2 level... 18 3.5 Scenarios... 19 CHAPTER 4. Battery electric vehicles... 21 4.1 Battery techniques... 21 4.2 Energy demand... 22 4.2.1 Energy demand... 22 4.2.2 Electricity demand in 2050... 23 4.3 Resource use... 24 4.3.1. Lithium requirements... 24 4.3.2 Supply and demand by 2050... 24 4.4 Emissions... 26 4.5 Scenarios... 27 CHAPTER 5. Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles... 29 5.1 ICE and EV powertrain... 29 5.2 Energy demand... 30 5.3 Resource use... 30 5.3.1 Oil... 30 5.3.2 Lithium... 30 5.4 Scenarios... 31 CHAPTER 6. Fuel cell electric vehicles... 33

6.1 Hydrogen production... 33 6.2 Fuel cell techniques... 33 6.3 Energy demand... 34 6.3.1 Well-to-Tank efficiency... 34 6.3.2 Tank-to-Wheel efficiency... 35 6.4 Resource use... 35 6.4.1 Platinum... 35 6.4.2 Methane... 36 6.5 Emissions... 36 6.5.1 Well-to-Tank emissions... 37 6.5.2 Well-to-Wheel emissions... 38 6.6 Scenarios... 38 CHAPTER 7. Biofuel ICE vehicles... 41 7.1 Biofuel production... 41 7.2 Energy demand... 41 7.3 Resource use... 41 7.4 Emissions... 42 7.4.1 Used resources (1 st generation)... 42 7.4.2 Used resources (2 nd generation)... 43 7.4.3 CO 2 Emissions... 43 7.5 Scenario s... 44 CHAPTER 8. Renewable electricity sources... 47 8.1 Potential of renewable electricity... 47 8.2 Electricity demand vehicles... 48 CHAPTER 9. Scenarios comparison... 51 9.1 Forecasting scenarios... 51 9.2 Backcasting... 55 9.2.1 CO 2 emissions goals... 55 9.2.2 Lithium reserves... 57 CHAPTER 10. Conclusions and Discussion... 59 10.1 Conclusion... 59 10.2 Discussion... 60 10.3 End conclusion... 61 References... 63

SUMMARY (ENGLISH) The current transport sector faces two global problems. The first is climate change, due to the combustion of fossil fuels, and the second is resource depletion. From the entire transport sector (road, air and water), private passenger vehicles account for more than 50% of the emitted greenhouse gasses. The main question is: will there be a sustainable solution for private passenger vehicles in 2050? The aim of this research is to find potential bottlenecks when the entire society switches to one singe alternative. For example when we will still be using the Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) in 2050 or when we all switch to Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEV), Biofuel vehicle or perhaps a combination in the form of a Hybrid vehicle. The definition of a sustainable situation is not to rely on fossil fuels and the demand for resources (material, land, renewable energy) is not larger than the reserves or potential. Current CO 2 emissions (3500 Mton/yr) from the private passenger vehicle sector are expected to increase by a factor 2 according to the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. In this scenario, the total amount of vehicles will increase to about 2 billion and the global travelled distances will increase with a factor of 2.3 by the year 2050. A sustainable CO 2 situation is a reduction of 50% compared to the 1990 levels, which means 1175 Mt/yr. With the use of fore- and backcasting scenarios, the most important bottlenecks of each alternative are examined. Improving ICE vehicles, for example with direct injection, mass reduction, engine downsizing, variable gearboxes, decreases resource use and total CO 2 emissions by more than 50%. Unfortunately, these measures can only stabilize current CO 2 emissions in 2050, due to the increase in global travelled kilometers. Furthermore, these vehicles still use fossil fuels. Improved ICE vehicles cannot become a sustainable solution in 2050. When biofuels substitute fossil fuels, ICE vehicles are much cleaner. The potential of 1 st generation biofuels is technically large enough to cover the demand, but emissions of producing it vary enormously and therefore these vehicles cannot become sustainable in 2050. The potential of 2 nd generation biofuels is unfortunately smaller and is therefore not enough to cover the demand. Electric vehicles store their energy in NGA-G lithium batteries (BE vehicles) or in hydrogen (FCE vehicles). The main bottlenecks of BE vehicles are the relatively low energy density of batteries, the accumulated lithium demand and the CO 2 intensity of current electricity production. The lithium reserves are only large enough to produce BE vehicles with a battery that can cover a vehicle range of 400-500 km. Charging these batteries with the current electricity mix would only stabilize current CO 2 emissions in 2050. These vehicles can only become sustainable when at least 80% of the electricity is generated by renewable electricity sources. FCE vehicles do not have a direct resource bottleneck but faces an overall low efficiency (hydrogen production, transport and fuel cell efficiency) of 30%. For these vehicles, at least 90% of the electricity has to be generated by renewable electricity sources. Both are within the potential of renewable electricity sources such as wind, water and solar power but large investments have to be made to supply this demand. A Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) is a combination of a BE vehicle and a combustion engine to extent the range (<800 km). 82% of all the annually travelled distances can be covered by the electric powertrain with a relatively small battery (3.2 kwh = 48km vehicle range). Therefore the accumulated demand for lithium would be only 2.2 Mt and can easily be covered by the available reserves bases (32.5 Mt). However, the CO 2 bottlenecks still remain. Emissions from the ICE powertrain are relatively high and the current electricity mix is not clean enough to charge these batteries in a sustainable way. A solution is that biofuels are used in the ICE powertrain and that the batteries are charged by renewable electricity sources. The advantage of PHE vehicles is the limited demand for lithium, biofuels and renewable electricity sources. Current implementation of the researched alternatives will not give a sustainable situation right now. Therefore something structural has to be changed, for example the CO 2 intensity of current electricity production. PHE vehicles are the best choice for a sustainable passenger transport sector by the year 2050 because of the limited demand of resources that can be covered by the potentials and reserves. A discussion point is that the estimation of lithium reserves has more than doubled in the last two years. Electric vehicles are more energy efficient than a PHE vehicle in combination with biofuels. The actual available lithium reserves are not well known and therefore maybe BE vehicles are the best choice for a sustainable passenger transport sector. Either way, renewable electricity sources are needed to achieve a sustainable private passenger vehicle sector in 2050. 3

SAMENVATTING (DUTCH) Het huidige transport systeem heeft met twee globale problemen te maken. Het eerste probleem is klimaatverandering door de verbranding van fossiele brandstoffen. Het tweede probleem is grondstof uitputting. Van het gehele transport systeem (weg-, water- en luchtverkeer), stoten privévoertuigen stoten meer dan 50% van alle broeikasgassen uit. De hoofdvraag is: Is er een duurzame oplossing voor privé voertuigen in 2050? Het doel van dit onderzoek is om potentiele limieten te vinden wanneer iedereen overgaat op één enkel alternatief. Dit kan beteken dat we nog steeds de verbrandingsmotor gebruiken (ICE) of dat we overgaan op batterijvoertuigen (BEV), brandstofcelauto s (FCEV), biobrandstoffen of misschien een combinatie in de vorm van en hybride. Een duurzame oplossing is dat voertuigen geen fossiele brandstoffen gebruiken en dat de vraag naar grondstoffen (materiaal, land, energie bronnen) niet groter is dan de reserves/potentie. De huidige CO 2 uitstoot (3500 Mt/jaar) van alle privévoertuigen zal toenemen met een factor 2.1 volgens het ontwikkelde Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. Volgens dit scenario zijn er meer dan 2 miljard voertuigen in de wereld in 2050. Een duurzame situatie voor de totale CO 2 emissies is vastgesteld op een reductie van 50% ten opzichte van 1990 niveaus, wat neer komt op ongeveer 1175 Mt per jaar. Met het gebruik van forecasting en backcasting scenario s, de meest belangrijke limieten zijn onderzocht voor elk alternatief. Het verbeteren van de huidige ICE voertuigen, met bijvoorbeeld het gebruik van directe injectie, gewichtsbesparing, reduceren van de motor inhoud etc., is het mogelijk om CO 2 emissies te beperken met 50%. Helaas is de potentie niet genoeg om een duurzame optie te zijn in 2050. Dit komt vooral door het groeien van het totale aantal voertuigen. Bovendien gebruiken deze voertuigen nog steeds fossiele brandstoffen. Wanneer biobrandstoffen fossiele brandstoffen vervangen, worden ICE voertuigen schoner. De technische potentie van 1 e generatie biobrandstoffen is groot genoeg om de eventuele vraag te beantwoorden, echter zijn de emissies van deze brandstoffen toch te hoog en daardoor kunnen deze voertuigen niet duurzaam zijn in 2050. De emissies van 2 e generatie brandstoffen zijn wel laag genoeg om duurzaam te worden maar de totale vraag zou groter zijn dan de potentie hiervan. Elektrische voertuigen slaan hun energie op in NGA-G lithium batterijen (BEV voertuigen) of in waterstof (FCE-voertuigen). De limieten voor BE-voertuigen zijn de relatieve lage dichtheid van batterijen, de totale lithium vraag en de CO 2 intensiteit van de huidige elektriciteit productie. De lithium reserves zijn alleen groot genoeg om alle voertuigen te voorzien van een batterij die een actieradius heeft van 400-500 km. Het opladen van deze batterijen met de huidige elektriciteitsproductie is alleen genoeg voor een stabilisatie van de totale CO 2 emissies in 2050. Deze voertuigen kunnen alleen duurzaam worden wanneer minstens 80% van de elektriciteitsproductie van duurzame bronnen komt. FCE-voertuigen hebben niet een grondstof probleem maar hebben te maken met een lage efficiëntie van maximaal 30%. Voor deze voertuigen geldt dat minstens 90% van de elektriciteitsproductie van duurzame bronnen moet komen om duurzaam te worden. Een elektrische Plug-in hybride (PHEV) is een combinatie van een BEV voertuig en een verbrandingsmotor om de actieradius te vergroten (<800 km). 82% van alle gereden afstanden rijdt dit voertuig op het elektrische rijgedeelte met een relatief kleine batterij (3.2 kwh = 48 km actieradius). Hierdoor is de totale vraag naar lithium te verkleinen naar 2.2 Mt en kan daardoor geleverd worden door de wereld beschikbare reserves (32.5 Mt). Niettemin blijven de CO 2 emissies hoog doordat de huidige elektriciteitsproductie niet schoon genoeg is en door het gebruik van fossiele brandstoffen in de verbrandingsmotor. Een oplossing hiervoor is het gebruik van biobrandstoffen in de verbrandingsmotor en het gebruik van duurzame elektriciteitsbronnen voor het elektrische rijgedeelte. Het voordeel van deze voertuigen is de beperkte vraag naar biobrandstoffen, lithium en duurzame elektriciteitsbronnen vergeleken met alle andere alternatieven. Conclusie is dat het gebruik van alle onderzochte alternatieven op dit moment niet duurzaam is maar wel kan worden in 2050. Hiervoor moet iets structureels veranderen zoals bijvoorbeeld de CO 2 intensiteit van de elektriciteitsproductie. PHE-voertuigen zijn de beste en makkelijkste oplossing om duurzaam te worden in 2050. Een discussiepunt is dat de lithium reserves niet goed bekend zijn. Deze zijn bijvoorbeeld meer dan verdubbeld in de laatste twee jaren. Hierdoor is het misschien in de toekomst wel mogelijk om volwaardige BE-voertuigen te maken met een actieradius van meer dan 800 km. Verder zijn elektrische voertuigen meest energie efficiënt waardoor dit misschien de beste keus is het voor een duurzame oplossing in 2050. Hoe dan ook, duurzame elektriciteitsbronnen zijn nodig om van al deze genoemde alternatieven een duurzame oplossing te maken in 2050. 4

CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION Transport mobility faces two global problems. The first is climate change, mainly caused by emissions of combusting fossils fuels. The transport sector is divided into air, water and road transport and is responsible for 25% of all human-produced greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere [1]. Road transport is the largest category of the three and consists of passenger cars, motorcycles, freight trucks, busses and trains. Remarkable is that private passenger vehicles, four-wheel vehicles up to a weight of 3500kg, are responsible for about half of the greenhouse gasses emitted in the entire transport sector. The second problem is the depletion of fossils fuels. Almost every type of transport in the world relies on fossil fuels and at some moment in time, this sector will be dealing with major shortfalls. The private passenger transport sector is large and is expected to grow fast. This increase has to do with the growing population, the increase of vehicles per capita [1,2,3] and the increase in passenger s kilometres [4]. P. Moriarty [1] argued that in 2030 the total global passenger kilometres (the sum of the factors above) would increase with a factor 3.4. Also the Mobility 2030 report [4] has predicted a large increase in passenger kilometres, also up to the year 2050. Especially in emerging markets where incomes are rising rapidly, vehicle sales and ownerships are also rising [1,5]. In 2050, vehicle ownership in China and India is expected to be 8 times higher than today [4]. This means that the annually travelled passenger kilometres will increase at a very fast rate. These are some trends for the coming few decades and therefore CO 2 emissions will increase rapidly and fossil fuels will be exhausted much quicker than first thought. Several measures can be taken to decrease CO 2 emissions in the private vehicle transport sector and to rely on fossil fuels no longer. However, are these measures realistic and sustainable? People can go car-pooling or take public transport to decrease the total CO 2 emissions, but what if they do not? What if the expectations of P. Moriarty [1] are right? In this report, it is assumed that the global passenger kilometres will increase. The main question that will be answered in this report is: Will there be a sustainable solution for private passenger vehicles by 2050 with the increasing global passenger kilometres? For example by replacing all vehicles with Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), or by increasing the efficiency of Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles in such a way that they become sustainable from a resource and CO 2 point of view. Most of the scientists and researchers think that another fuel type (with or without the use of other powertrains) can be a sustainable solution for private vehicle transport by 2050. However, they think this is only possible if a mixture of techniques is used such as BE vehicles next to fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV). But what will happen with resources and CO 2 emissions when society switches to one single alternative? A well-known option is to use BE vehicles solely or in combination with an IC engine (Plugin hybrid electric vehicle). In theory, BE vehicles are 3 times more efficient than ICE vehicles [3], but in reality they present some practical problems such as limited range [6], depleting battery resources [7], and long recharging times (up to 20 hours) [8]. Hydrogen as a type of fuel can be a solution. This type of fuel is not a resource but only an energy carrier. Hydrogen is mainly produced by electricity and is available in a liquid form and a compressed gas form. Hydrogen can be used in FCE vehicles to convert hydrogen back to electricity. The demand for electricity will increase when we all switch to FCE vehicles. In a study of S. Campanari [6] he concludes that FCE vehicles, when electricity is produced out of coal, are more pollutant (CO 2 ) than normal ICE vehicles. He draws the same conclusion for BE vehicles. Not only the electricity demand and production is important but also the resource demand (batteries, fuel cells, land use). Biofuels such as bio-ethanol and biodiesel are promising as future transport fuels [9]. Biofuels only constitute 1.8% of the current transport fuels [10]. However, this amount has to be increased in the next decades in order to meet the fuel demand in 2050. Biofuel can be produced from different resources such as, corn, sugar canes and rapeseed (first-generation biofuel). The best and the most realistic resources have to be researched to fulfil this demand. A UNEP publication [10] shows that the required land to produce biofuels from differs between the used resources. If we replace 10% of our 5

fossil fuels with biofuels, 8% to 36% of our current land is required to generate energy crops. This variation heavily depends on which resource is used to produce these biofuels. Research design and methods The main question is: Will there be a sustainable solution for private passenger vehicles by 2050 with the increasing global passenger kilometres? The aim of this research is to show whether this is possible with one single solution or not, and to find potential bottlenecks when using vehicle techniques which are available at this moment and expected to be available in 2050. The focus will lie on different fields: technical potentials, resource use and CO 2 emissions. In order to be able to answer the main question, the answers on the following sub questions are required: What is a sustainable transport system by 2050 from a CO 2 point of view? The worldwide CO 2 target for 2050 is set on a reduction of 80% based on the worldwide 1990 CO 2 levels. The transport system is increasing rapidly (compared to other sectors in the world). Therefore another CO 2 level than the reduction of 80% may be the sustainable one. That is why s sustainable CO 2 level has to be set. What would the amount of global passenger kilometres be by 2050? The increase of global passenger kilometres with a factor of 3.4 argued by P. Moriarty is based on population growth and expected vehicle ownership by 2030. A detailed research on the current amount of passenger kilometres and the expectations for 2050 has to be developed to determine whether this increase (3.4) is a correct approach or not. Are there enough resources to supply the demand in 2050? For example is there enough platinum for fuel cells? What are the oil reserves by 2050? Is there enough lithium for all BE vehicles? Research boundary and methodology The focus is to research a sustainable private vehicle solution by 2050 with the use of one single vehicle technique. The techniques that are used are ICE (CNG, LPG, diesel, gasoline), BEV, FCEV (PEM type), and ICE vehicles that are fuelled with 1 st and 2 nd generation biofuels. One single solution can be a combination of different techniques, for example a plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (ICE + BEV). A scheme of different techniques is shown in figure 1.1. Figure 1.1: Possible future vehicles alternatives. 6

The main question and the sub questions can be answered by using existing data and literature, and by extrapolating current trends. Calculations are implemented in an Excel model to research the emissions, land use and when needed the bottlenecks of each alternative. Furthermore, scenarios will be developed in Excel to show future effects of current trends and the use of alternative private transport vehicles. A forecasting scenario shows the future path based on an analysis of current trends. These scenarios are divided into two categories, business as usual and estimated technology and electricity generation. The first category represents what will happen when society switches to an alternative vehicle technology with the current state of technology, efficiencies and electricity production. The other category discusses the currently estimated state of technology by the year 2050 (linear in time until 2050). Besides this forecasting scenario, backcasting scenarios will be applied. Backcasting is defined as: A method in which the future desired conditions are envisioned and steps are then defined to attain those conditions, rather than taking steps that are merely a continuation of present methods extrapolated into the future [11]. In this research alternative vehicle techniques, when needed, are improved in such a way that they can become sustainable (from a source or CO 2 point of view). 7

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World Population (billion) CHAPTER 2. CURRENT SITUATION AND EXPECTATIONS UP TO 2050 The amount of vehicles per person and the world population are growing. When nothing changes, this would result in an increase of passenger vehicles with probably increasing CO 2 emissions. This chapter is focused on the global vehicle kilometres, CO 2 emissions and energy use of current private vehicles transport sector. The research paths are shown in figure 2.1. The most important inputs (purple) will be explained in this chapter. Figure 2.1: Path to research to the amount of travelled kilometres, energy consumption and CO 2 emissions. 2.1 Population The world population is estimated at 6.96 billion in 2010. The United Nations [12] developed scenarios on the world population up to 2050. In graph 2.1, three projections are shown: low, medium and high growth. World population will reach 9.3 billion people by the year 2050 with a medium projection. With the current fertility rates, the population will reach a maximum of almost 11 billion by 2050. The medium projection that is developed by the UN is used for further research, because this is the most realistic approach for the growth in population by the year 2050. A more detailed analysis of population growth per region can be found in appendix A1. 11 World Population projections by the UN (billion) 10 9 8 7 Medium High Low Constant fertility rates 6 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Graph 2.1: World population projection by 2050 Source: United Nations [12] 9

Vehcile ownership per 1000 2.2 Passenger vehicles 2.2.1 Vehicles per capita Besides the population expectation, the amount of vehicles per capita is required to estimate the total amount of vehicles by the year 2050. In 2007-2008 [1,13,14] vehicles per capita were estimated at 118 vehicles per 1000 persons. The vehicle density of the Netherlands is much higher with 442 per 1000 and 450/1000 in the rest of the OECD countries. The truth is that most of the people in the world live in an environment with less than 20 vehicles per 1000 persons [15]. P. Moriarty [1] argued that this will change in the coming decades; Where incomes are rising rapidly, as in populous China and India, so too are car sales and ownership [ ] In brief, these countries and others want to shift their societies from the low to the high motorisation group. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) [4] reported a projection of vehicle ownerships in different regions by 2050 (graph 2.2). Concluded is that the highly populated regions such as China and India will increase their vehicles per capita most rapidly. In other words, due to the increase of vehicles per capita and the world populations, these amounts will grow enormously in the coming decades. 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific FSU Eastern Europe China Other Asia India Middle East Latin America Africa Graph 2.2: Vehicle ownership projections by 2050 per 1000 habitant (Source: WBCSD [4]) Graph 2.2 shows that OECD countries will increase their vehicles per capita but not as fast as other regions such as the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Eastern Europe. Interesting is that in the graph for China and India only a small increase is observed. Due to the fact that these regions are dealing with large amounts of people, this will have a large impact on the absolute amount of vehicles in the world. In appendix A2, this graph and the related table can be found. 2.2.2 Current vehicle fleet and projections The total vehicle ownership in the world will grow together with an increasing world population. A combination of these indicators gives an idea of the total amount of vehicles in the world. In graph 2.3, these expectations are shown. The total amount of vehicles is calculated according to formula 2.1 and the worlds average by formula 2.2. (2.1) (2.2) = World s total amount of vehicles = World s average vehicle per capita = Population in a specific region = World s total population = Vehicles per capita in a specific region 10

Total amount of vehciles (million) Vehicle ownership per 1000 2500 Total amount of vehicles and ownerships per 1000 250 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 200 150 100 50 0 Total Cars (millions) Car ownership per 1000 Graph 2.3: Total amount of vehicles & ownership per 1000 projection from 2000-2050 Researched expectations are in line with previous mentioned indicators. In this model vehicles ownership is 123/1000 in the year 2010. Furthermore, the type of fuel for each vehicle is required to research CO 2 emissions and the total energy demand. Only 2.2% of the total amount of vehicles in North America is diesel-fuelled. In Europe, diesel vehicles are more frequent with almost 40%. In graph 2.4, the total amounts of vehicles in the year 2010 are shown per region. These numbers are calculated according formula 2.3. Also shown is the share of different fuel types per region. In appendix A3, a detailed graph and table is shown for the total amount of vehicles between 2010 and 2050 for each specific region. = Amount of vehicles in a specific region for a specific fuel type = Amount of vehicles per capita for a specific region in 2010 = Population in a specific region in 2010 = Share of a specific fuel type in a specific region (2.3) Africa Latin America Middle East India Other Asia China Eastern Europe FSU OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America 0,0 50,0 100,0 150,0 200,0 250,0 300,0 Graph 2.4: Total amount of vehicles per fuel type (millions). Calculations based on WBCSD [4] and UN [12] 2.3 Global travelled kilometres The next step is to calculate global travelled kilometres. Global passenger kilometres are not relevant because the emissions of vehicles are researched. (Passenger kilometres depend on the amount of peoples in a vehicle, in other words, the load factor). Graph 2.5 shows the worldwide weighted average travelled distance of vehicles (per fuel type) estimated from 2010 to 2050. Almost all vehicles types will decrease their yearly travelled distance due to the increasing costs of a car, environmental awareness or purchase of a second car. The main reason that CNG/LPG vehicles stabilize their annually travelled distances is because these vehicles are currently not used as business vehicles in most countries. Diesel Gasoline CNG LPG BEV FCEV Biofuel Diesel ICE Hybrids Gasoline ICE Hybrids 11

Annually travelled distance per vehicle (km) 14000 13500 13000 12500 12000 11500 11000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Graph 2.5: Annually travelled distance per vehicle fuel type [16] Diesel Gasoline CNG/LPG Diesel ICE Hybrids Gasoline ICE Hybrids The annually travelled distances per vehicle are expected to decrease in the future (graph 2.5). So in theory, the total global travelled distances of all vehicles would decrease. However, as shown in graph 2.3, the total amount of cars would more than double in 2050 (blue line). The decrease of the annually travelled kilometres (graph 2.5) is not enough to decrease the global travelled kilometres that are shown in graph 2.6. In conclusion, there is a decreasing trend in annually travelled kilometres per vehicle but the total amount of vehicle would more than double in 2050. The global travelled distances are calculated according to formula 2.4. = Global annually travelled kilometres = Worldwide amount of vehicles for a specific fuel type = Annually travelled vehicle distance for a specific fuel type 30 25 20 15 10 5 Global travelled distance (10 12 km) 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Graph 2.6: Global travelled kilometre projection 2010-2050. 2.4 Energy demand Calculating the energy demand depends on the fuel consumption of each vehicle. Basically, gasoline vehicles consume more litres of fuel per driven kilometre than diesels. This is because diesel as a fuel has a higher energy content of about 38.7 MJ/l compared to 34.8 MJ/l for gasoline vehicles. The fuel consumption not only differs per vehicle type but also per specific region. In OECD North America the average gasoline consumption is 11.5 l/100km while this is 8.3 in OECD Europe. In other words, in some regions vehicles are more efficient that in other regions. The worldwide (weighted) average fuel consumption is respectively 7.59 l/100km for diesel and 10.79 l/100km for gasoline vehicles. These numbers are calculated according to formula 2.5 & 2.6.In appendix A4, a detailed analysis of fuel consumption in each region per fuel type can be found (source WBCSD [4]). Biodiesel and bio-ethanol also have a lower energy content than conventional diesel. This results in an increase in fuel consumption per litre. In theory, bio-ethanol almost has 34% less energy per litre than normal gasoline. In practice, ICE engines can be modified (for example in Brazil where vehicles run on pure ethanol) to optimize the fuel consumption. One option could be to change the compression ratio of the engine. Biodiesel vehicles consume on average 9.46 l/100km and bio-ethanol vehicles 14.49 l/100km [17]. A summary of the current fuel and energy consumption by the transport sector is given in table 2.1. The energy consumption of all vehicles are calculated according to formula 2.7. (2.4) 12

Current Hybrids (gasoline and diesel) use conventional fossil fuels, which total demand is added to the diesel/gasoline fuel consumption post. (2.5) (2.6) = Average fuel consumption = Total fuel consumption op specific fuel type =Vehicles fuel consumption in a specific region = Annually travelled vehicle distance for = Amount of vehicles in a specific region specific fuel type = World s total amount of vehicles = Total energy consumption of private vehicle transport sector = Energy density of a specific fuel (2.7) Table 2.1: Summary of the weighted energy, fuel and CO 2 results. Calculation based on [9,16,18,19] Average fuel consumption (l/100km) Total fuel consumption (billion l) Energy consumption (EJ) TTW emissions (kgco 2/l) Diesel 7.59 114.6 4.43 2.582 Gasoline 10.79 1034.7 36.05 2.415 CNG/LPG 10.66 8.8 0.22 1.753 Bio-ethanol 14.49 40.0 0.92 2.345 Biodiesel 9.46 6.5 0.20 2.523 Diesel Hybrids 6.65-0.00 - Gasoline Hybrids 7.77-0.05-2.5 Emissions The world s CO 2 emissions from the transport sector increased from 19.3% in 1971 to about 25% in 2010 [20]. This trend will be continued when nothing is changed. In this paragraph the baseline will be set for further scenario calculations. First, a detailed study is developed for CO 2 emissions in 2010. Each fuel type has a certain CO 2 content when it is combusted in an ICE engine and are called Tankto-Wheel (TTW) emissions. The CO 2 content values were already mentioned in table 2.1. Together with the fuel consumption, it is possible to calculate the CO 2 emissions from all fossil fuels. Well-to- Tank (WTT) emissions are significant and therefore, together with the TTW emissions, mentioned in table 2.2. FCE and BE vehicle emissions are neglected. A more detailed analysis of WTT and TTW emissions of gasoline and diesel vehicles per region can be found in appendix A5. (2.8) (2.9) = Total WTT emissions = Total TTW emissions = CO 2 emissions of a specific fuel during = CO 2 emissions of a specific fuel during combustion per litre production per litre Table 2.2: Summary of worldwide CO 2 emissions in the year 2010 by passenger vehicles. Calculations based on [9,16,18,19]) WTT emissions (Mton CO 2) TTW emissions (Mton CO 2) Total (Mton CO 2) Diesel 42.4 295.9 338.3 Gasoline 472.5 2498.8 2971.3 CNG/LPG 2.6 19.3 22.0 Bio-ethanol -17.8 93.8 76.0 Biodiesel -4.0 16.4 12.4 Diesel Hybrids 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gasoline Hybrids 1.0 3.5 4.4 Total 496.7 2927.7 3424.4 13

CO 2 emissions (Mt) 2.6 Scenarios In a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario the consequences of continuing current trends are examined. The trends that were researched in this chapter are applied to develop this scenario. Assumed in this scenario is: The same distribution of vehicles per fuel type. This also means that for example the weight of a vehicle, the engine size and the energy efficiency of engine will that the same up to 2050. A medium population growth, projected by the UN No change in fuel consumption. Current trends in the private vehicles transport sector (vehicles per capita, global travelled kilometres et cetera) 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Diesel Gasoline CNG/LPG Bio alcohols Bio diesel Diesel Hybrids Gasoline Hybrids Graph 2.7: Business-as-usual projection for 2010-2050. Graph 2.7 shows that the CO 2 emissions from the vehicle transport sector will increase with a factor of 2.1 to about 7400 Mton. Gasoline vehicles are still dominant in this scenario compared to the use of diesel vehicles. In the coming chapters this BAU scenario is used as the baseline for other scenarios. 14

CHAPTER 3. IMPROVEMENT OF ICE VEHICLES IC engines became more fuel-efficient during the last decades. However, due to the increase of the vehicles mass (larger vehicles, more luxury equipment, safety instruments et cetera) the fuel savings were less. ICE vehicles can become more efficient in two different ways. First, end users can reduce their fuel use by for example, eco-driving, good tyre pressure and low rolling resistance tyres. Second, car producers can develop more efficient and less pollutant vehicles. In this chapter the maximum potential of ICE vehicles is researched and applied in a scenario. Reducing the maximum driving speed is not included in this research. 3.1 General vehicle improvements Low rolling resistance tyres (LRRT). By using more efficient tyres for vehicles, the fuel consumption can be decreased. Rolling friction accounts for 5-10% of the total energy demand of a vehicle. Using efficient tyres would result in energy savings of 1.5% to about 5% for an average vehicle [21]. Not only ICE vehicles will save energy with these types of tyres. All hybrid vehicles (like Toyota Prius) are installed with LRR tyres but this is even more important for BE/PHE vehicles to extent the range (chapter 4). In the latest study by Michelin [22], the energy consumption will decrease on average with 3.2% on urban roads and with 5.1% on major roads. These savings will be used for further calculations. Tyre pressure monitoring system (TPMS) Only 20% of all vehicles tyres are filled up with the correct pressure (±0.3 bar). The rest of all the tyres are significant under the correct pressure, which results in an increase of rolling friction. 1.0 bar under the correct tyre pressure already results in an increase of the rolling friction with 30%. The expectations for TPM systems are that they will be standardly installed in all new vehicles in the next 5 to 10 years. This will continuously measure the pressure and give a signal when the tyres have to be filled. The potential savings are estimated to at least 2% in energy consumption [23]. Because the owner of the vehicle has to fill the tyre by him or herself, this is an end-user measure. However, the system has to be implemented by the manufacturer. Eco-driving The behaviour of the driver will affect the energy consumption of a vehicle. People will drive more energy conscious after an eco-driving training and save about 5-25%, but this is only for the short term. Long-term savings are significant lower and are estimated at 3% energy savings [24]. The long-term effects of eco-driving are taken into account in this research. Mass reduction Aluminium, magnesium and carbon parts are examples that can reduce the mass of a vehicle. Most mass savings can be achieved in the production of the chassis, bodywork, interior and the wheels. This could lead to a mass reduction of 30% compared to current vehicles. According to TNO [24], a mass reduction of 100kg would result in savings up to 0.3-0.4 l/100km. Assumed is that a mass reduction of 30% is equal to a reduction of 10% in the energy demand of a vehicle. This estimation is in line with the projections of the WBCSD [4]. Aerodynamic improvement According to the Joint Research Centre [25], a reduction of 10% in the aerodynamic drag coefficient would be realistic in 2050 and results in an average saving of 0.3 l/km of an European gasoline vehicle. Assumed is that this is equal to energy savings of 3.3%. All mentioned reduction measures could also be applied to other vehicle techniques. In this research, the same measures are implemented for each alternative, such as electric vehicles and bio-fuelled ICE vehicles. 15

3.2 Engine improvements A challenge for the car manufacturers is to make the IC engines more energy efficient. Improvements are mostly related to the engine of a vehicle. Furthermore, the transmission is the next best option to improve. Possible measures for ICE vehicles could be: Reduce engine friction losses including gearbox lubricants. Implementing direct injection (DI) in gasoline vehicles. Expected to be standard in all gasoline vehicles in 2020 [16] Downsize of engines. Smaller engine volume in combination with a turbocharger to increase efficiency. Variable valve timing/control. Controlling the flow of air and fuel more efficiently. Continuous variable transmission. Infinite possible gearbox ratios. Dual clutch. No losses during shifting gears. In table 3.1 and 3.2, summaries of different studies are shown of potential savings in ICE vehicles. The measures of gasoline and diesel vehicles are differentiated. Generally, diesel vehicles are currently more fuel-efficient and therefore the total reduction is lower compared to that of gasoline vehicles. Table 3.1: Potential CO 2 savings for an ICE gasoline vehicles [23,24,25,26] Measure (Average gasoline vehicle) CO 2 reduction potential (%) Engine Reduced engine friction losses 4 DI/homogeneous charge (stoichiometric) 3 DI/stratified charge (lean burn, complex strategies) 10 Mild downsizing with turbocharging (-10%) 5 Medium downsizing with turbocharging (-20%) 10 Strong downsizing with turbocharging (-30%) 12 Variable valve timing 3 Variable valve control 7 Variable compression ratio 6 Optimized cooling circuit (E-thermostat, oil-water heat exchanger, split cooling) 1.5 Advanced cooling circuit + electric water pump + heat storage 3 Transmission Optimised gearbox ratios 1.5 Piloted gearbox (automatic) 4 Continuous variable transmission or Dual Clutch 5 Table 3.2: Potential CO 2 savings for an ICE diesel vehicles [23,24,25,26] Measure (Average diesel vehicle) CO 2 reduction potential (%) Engine Reduced engine friction losses 4 Mild downsizing with turbocharging 3 Medium downsizing with turbocharging 5 Strong downsizing with turbocharging 7 Optimized cooling circuit 1.5 Advanced cooling circuit + electric pump water 3 Exhaust heat recovery 1.5 Transmission Piloted gearbox 4 Continuous variable transmission or Dual Clutch 5 The maximum CO 2 reduction that is possible for gasoline vehicles is estimated around 31%. This is because not all the measures can be combined. For example, variable valve timing/control aims for the same losses as direct injection. Adjusting diesel vehicles in the coming years can save 19%. Costs are not mentioned in this research but to give an idea, the maximum improvements will cost 1780 for diesels (19% reduction) and 1215 for gasoline engines (31% reduction). The next best option for diesel vehicles (18.1%) will only cost 865 for the manufacturer to implement. Note: These total reductions (maximum 31% of a gasoline cars) are based on a new average European car [23]. This means that to the total potential of decreasing CO 2 emissions from the BAU scenario (graph 2.7) would be more than 31% because the basis of this scenario are not all new European cars. As already explained, the average fuels consumption of OECD North America is higher than for example OECD Europe. 16

3.3 Resource use Note: In this research only crude oil and natural gas reserves are discussed. Crude oil and natural gas are defined as fossil fuel. The world s fossil fuel consumption has increased from 47 million barrels per day in 1970 to almost 85 in 2010 [27]. This is an annual growth rate of 1.5%. What will happen when the global vehicles kilometres will increase with a factor 2.1 as mentioned in the BAU scenario? In this paragraph the consumption, production and the reserves are researched up to the year 2050. 3.3.1 Oil consumption, production and reserves In table 3.3, the worldwide proven reserves, production and consumption amounts are shown by the year 2009 (latest available data). The Reserves-to-production ratio (RPR) is indicated in years. This is an indication of when all fossil fuels will be exhausted. The total proven reserves are estimated around 207-223*10 12 litres. According to some researchers, oil reserve can increase to about 318*10 12 litres. [28]. In the worst case scenario (lowest amount of reserves), the RPR time is 44 years, in an optimistic view it is estimated at 68 years. Currently 22.2% of all available oil is consumed by private vehicle transport (41.88 EJ/year, see table 2.1). Table 3.3: Oil reserves, production, consumption and RPR time 2009. Calculations based on [27,29] Reserves (10 12 l) Production (10 9 l/day) Consumption (10 9 l/day) RPR (years) US 3.29 1.16 2.99 OPEC 150 5.36 1.41 Rest of the World 59.8 6.28 9.01 Total 213 12.8 13.42 44 Natural gas is less abundant as a transport fuel but cannot be neglected, especially when hydrogen is produced from it (chapter 6). In table 3.4, the reserves, consumption and production of natural gas are shown. The RPR for natural gas is about 59 years. Only 3% of all available natural gas is consumed by the entire transport sector [30]. Table 3.4: Natural gas reserves, production, consumption and RPR time 2009. Calculations based on [27] Reserves (10 12 m 3 ) Consumption (10 12 m 3 /year) Consumption (10 12 m 3 /year) RPR (years) US 7.72 0.59 0.65 OPEC 91.1 0.57 0.40 Rest of the World 79.3 1.85 1.97 Total 178 3.02 3.02 59 3.3.2 Supply and demand in 2050 The RPR of the current consumption and production pattern is estimated (with 2009 data) at 44 years. In other words, the reserves are exhausted by the year 2053. This is only the case when the petroleum consumption will stabilize around 13.8*10 9 l/day. In table 3.5, the energy demand for fuels is shown by the year 2050. Keep in mind that current energy consumption is 41.88 EJ/yr (table 2.1). When nothing structural will be changed, the total energy demand will increase to more than 85 EJ/yr in 2050. However, it is possible to decrease this demand to 40.3 EJ in 2050 by improving our ICE vehicles. Detailed energy consumption expectations in 2050 are shown in table 3.5. Table 3.5: Energy demand 2050 in billion litres of gasoline equivalent (lge/yr) and total energy demand in Exajoule (EJ/yr). BAU Improved ICE OECD North America 916.2 392.8 OECD Europe 514.9 322.3 OECD Pacific 269.6 124.7 FSU 110.0 51.6 Eastern Europe 60.4 32.2 China 110.3 47.7 Other Asia 99.6 41.3 India 60.3 25.6 Middle East 33.0 13.6 Latin America 169.1 70.9 Africa 98.7 35.0 Total 2442.2 1157.6 Total (EJ) 85.1 40.3 17

Petroleum consumption (10 9 Litres per day) In graph 3.1, data from past petroleum consumption is shown together with the BAU scenario and potential ICE improvements by the year 2050. 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 History 1960-2010 BAU 100% renewables Improved ICE 2 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Graph 3.1: Petroleum consumption in 10 9 litres a day. Note: Assumed is that only the passenger vehicle demand for fossil fuels will increase, other consumers of fossil fuels will stabilize their demand. Fossil fuels will be exhausted by 2051 when fossil fuel consumption will stabilize. Nevertheless, in the BAU scenario, passenger vehicle kilometres will increase by a factor 2.1. The BAU line in graph 3.1, shows that fossil fuels consumption will increase and fossil fuel will be exhausted by 2041. When ICE vehicles are improved with the maximum measures that are researched in paragraphs 3.1 & 3.2, global fossil fuel consumption can decrease to 13.0*10 9 l/day. In this case, fossil fuel will be exhausted in 2053. In conclusion, improving ICE vehicles can extent the RPR time. Reserves will not be exhausted in 2041 (BAU scenario) but in 2053. 3.4 Sustainable CO 2 level The entire transport sector in 1990 was responsible for 4528 Mton of CO 2 emissions. For passenger vehicles this was around 2348 Mton. Since 1990 to 2011, this has increased by almost 46%. In all scenarios, a sustainable CO 2 level has to be established. Unfortunately, there is not a specific goal for the private transport sector or even for the entire transport sector in 2050. A global reduction level is established for example by the European Wind Energy Association [31]. They argue a target of 80-95% CO 2 reduction from 1990 levels in 2050. Specific EU goals are more detailed. The 2050 CO 2 - reduction goals for the energy sector in the EU are ambitious with a reduction of 93-99% compared to 1990 levels. This goal is set due to the decreasing trend of CO 2 emissions in this sector in the past decades. The goal for the transport sector is less ambitious with a reduction between 54-67%. This is because of the large vehicle increase since 1990. Furthermore, this increase will be even stronger in the next coming decades. Therefore two goals are set in this report. The first one is 50% reduction of 1990 levels, which will result in 1174 Mton of CO 2 emissions. The second goal is and a reduction of 80% to a total of 470 Mton. This is more an indication, assumed is that a sustainable transport situation is a 50% reduction compared to that of 1990 CO 2 levels. 18

CO 2 Emissions (Mton) 3.5 Scenarios Improving ICE vehicles could decrease CO 2 emissions per vehicle. In this forecasting scenario, the total CO 2 emissions are shown when the entire society uses these improved vehicles in 2050. Furthermore, it is assumed in this scenario that: General improvements such as Eco driving, LRRT, TPMS, 30% mass reduction and 10% reduction of the aerodynamic drag coefficient are implemented (paragraph 3.1). Maximum potential of improving ICE vehicles (paragraph 3.2). Equal distribution of improved ICE vehicles till 2050. All vehicles are improved by the year 2050. 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 BAU Potential ICE 50% Reduction 80% Reduction Graph 3.2: Scenario for maximum potential improved ICE vehicles. Note: Vehicle sales are assumed to be 2.5% per year. In other words, all vehicles in 2050 are replaced. This applies to all scenarios in this research. In graph 3.2 the maximum potential of ICE vehicles is shown by the year 2050. Total CO 2 emissions can decrease to 2900 Mton in 2050. Unfortunately, both goals cannot be reached by maximal improvement of ICE vehicles. 19

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CHAPTER 4. BATTERY ELECTRIC VEHICLES Electric vehicles use electric motors to power the vehicles instead of the combustion engine. A battery pack, which can be charged at home, work or somewhere else replaces the fuel tank. Charging these batteries can be achieved externally, which is not possible with hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) such as a Toyota Prius. For this reason, these vehicles will not be discussed as a sustainable solution in 2050. Electric Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) can be charged externally and have a (small) IC engine as a back-up in case that the batteries are exhausted. These vehicles are discussed in more detail in chapter 5. 4.1 Battery techniques Batteries are needed to store electricity as a fuel for BE vehicles. The most common used battery techniques for vehicles are: Lead acid Ni-Cd NiMH Lithium Lead acid batteries are generally used for starting equipment in ICE vehicles [32]. These batteries are cheap and reliable but have a low energy density compared to newer battery techniques. NiMH is a better option because of a higher energy density (70-80 watt-hours per kilogram, figure 4.1). This results in more energy that can be stored in the same battery mass. The main drawback of NiMH batteries is that they cannot provide the necessary performance (mainly fast acceleration) for vehicles that we are used to have in normal ICE vehicles. S.M. Bradford [32], Principal consultant of the Energy & Power System Group, argued that lithium batteries are reviewed as the prime chemistry of choice for electric vehicles, because of the better overall performance compared to NiMH or Lead acid, a higher energy density, longer life cycles and the absence of memory loss effects. Figure 4.1: Battery types and their specific power/energy [33] The first BE vehicles were provided with lead acid battery packs. In the late 1990s other types of batteries were more attractive to use in portable devices because of better overall performances and a higher energy density. All of the current mass-produced BE/PHE vehicles are based on the lithium battery technology. A few popular electric vehicles are shown in table 4.1. In this research assumed is that BE vehicles are installed with lithium batteries. Current commonly used energy density for lithium batteries (for vehicle use) is around 130 Wh/kg. This is the optimal combination of the specific energy and specific power (see figure 4.1) to use in electric vehicles [33]. 21

Energy demand (wh/km) Table 4.1: Most popular existing mass production BE/PHE vehicles [34] Vehicle Battery type Range (km) Charging time 115 VAC Charging time 230 VAC BMW Mini E 35 kwh, air cooled; 18650 (Li-ion) cells; NMC 355 V 153 26h 4.5h 32A Chevy Volt 16 kwh, liquid cooled Li-ion, 181 kg 45 10h 4h Toyota Plug-in Prius 3 Li-ion packs, one for hybrid; two for EV, 20 3h 1.5h Mitsubishi imiev 16 kwh; 88 cells, 4-cell modules; Li-ion 88 13h 7h Nissan LEAF 24 kwh; Li 192 cells, air cooled; 272 kg 100 N/A 8h Tesla Roadster 56 kwh, 6,831 Li-cobalt computer cells; liquid cooled 224 N/A 3.5h 32A Think City 24.5 kwh, Li-ion or sodium-based 160 8h N/A Smart Fortwo ED 16.5 kwh; cylindrical, Li-ion (computer cells), made by Tesla Motors 136 8h 3.5h 4.2 Energy demand 4.2.1 Energy demand When electric vehicles have to replace all ICE vehicles in 2050, the number of driven kilometres will not change. Therefore the BE vehicles kilometres are assumed to be equal to that of current global kilometres. However, the average vehicle range of current BE vehicles (table 4.1) lies between 50 and 200 km. This range is significantly lower than that of ICE vehicles. Because of the enormous battery that is required to compete with ICE vehicle ranges (>800 km), due to a relative low energy density of lithium batteries, these vehicles are not being produced. The reason for this is that the energy demand depends heavily on the mass of the vehicle. When the mass of the vehicle increases, the friction increases and the energy that is needed to move the vehicle will therefore also increase. Because the size of the battery is related to the range, people prefer a large battery, which results in a higher vehicle mass. In the literature, the energy demand for a Li-ion BE or PHE vehicle is estimated to be between 0.15 and 0.20 kwh per driven kilometre [35,36,37]. Unfortunately, this is only for small BE vehicles with limited range up to 50-100km as shown in table 4.1. In a large study of CE Delft [38], a total amount of 63 BE vehicles are researched. They concluded that an average BE vehicle has a weight of 1289 kg (83 kg lighter than an average European vehicle), and that the average range lies between 20 and 200 km. When BE vehicles have to replace the current vehicle fleet, ranges of electric vehicles have to be larger than 100 km. Therefore the energy demand of BE vehicles with ranges between 100 and 800 km (which is normal for ICE vehicles) are required. Campanari [6] studied the energy demand of an average vehicle (1100 kg excluding the battery) between ranges of 100 and 800 km. These results are shown in graph 4.2 and are in line with, for example, the presently produced Mitsubishi imiev, Nissan Leaf, Tesla, BMW Mini-E et cetera (table 4.1 and shown as red dots in graph 4.2). 400 350 300 250 200 150 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 Vehicle range (km) Mass-production Full-BEV Energy demand Full-BEV Graph 4.2: Energy demand of BE vehicles with a range between 100-800 km (Based on Campanari et al. [6] and The battery university [34]) Note: the graph is adjusted with regenerative braking and with the use of Low rolling resistance tyres (LRRT). With a range of 800 km, the energy demand per kilometre will almost double compared to that of a BE 100 km vehicle. An acceptable range for electric vehicles is assumed to be 400 km. This would result in a 25% higher energy demand compared to a 100 km BE vehicle. Furthermore, a battery energy density of 130 Wh/kg is assumed. This is currently most optimal in vehicles, but this can increase in the coming decades (paragrah 4.2.2) by technological progress. The advantage of a better energy density is a decrease in the vehicle mass and therefore the vehicle needed less energy for each driven kilometre (see graph 4.2). 22

4.2.2 Electricity demand in 2050 The expected energy density of the batteries in 2050 is important to research the total electricity demand of BE vehicles. Furthermore, this depends on the type of lithium batteries, which will also be discussed in this paragraph. Lithium battery types The most common lithium batteries that are currently available for BE and PHE vehicles are LiNiCoO 2 (NCA-Graphite) and LiFePO 4 (LFP-Graphite) [39]. Other types (LMO-G and LMO-TiO) are under development. The main advantages of NCA-Graphite batteries, compared to LFP-G, are a higher energy density, higher calendar lifetimes and better temperature ranges (figure 4.2). On the other hand, LFP-Graphite need less lithium per kwh (due to other chemical composition), are more safe to install in passenger vehicles and have more charging cycles before they have to be replaced [39]. In this research both techniques are considered potential candidates for BE vehicles. 5 Safety Fast Charge 4 3 2 Temperature Range LFP-G Lithium req. 1 0 Spec. Energy (Wh/kg) NCA-G Calender Life Spec. Power (W/kg) Cycle Life Figure 4.2: Lithium batteries properties. Calculations based on [39,40] Battery density The theoretical energy density of lithium batteries lies between 400 and 450 Wh/kg. These numbers are theoretical when batteries have an efficiency of 100%. Current efficiencies of lithium batteries lie between 10-30%, equal to about 45 and 130 Wh/kg [40]. Based on a study of CE Delft [41], the energy density of lithium batteries would be around 160 Wh/kg in 2020 and 190 Wh/kg in 2030. The energy density is assumed to increase to 260 Wh/kg in 2050 with a linear progression in time. Electricity demand The electricity that is required to fuel electric vehicles depends on battery mass, the state of the technology and vehicle improvements (chapter 3). The electricity demand of a vehicle will increase when the vehicle mass increases. In table 4.2 the annual electricity demand of all BE vehicles are shown, assumed is that in the year 2050 all vehicles are BE vehicles. Furthermore, two scenarios for the state of technology are discussed one for 2011 and one for 2050. 2011 Technology scenario: Current technology. A battery energy density of 130 Wh/kg, a basic vehicle weight of 1100 kg, Low Rolling Resistance Tyres (LRRT) and a charging efficiency of 95%. 2050 Technology scenario: The estimated technology in 2050. A battery energy density of 260 Wh/g, 30% mass reduction, Eco driving, aerodynamic improvements, LRRT and a charging efficiency of 95% 23

Table 4.2: Annual total electricity demand in 2050 with current technology and estimated technology in 2050. It is assumed that all vehicles are BE vehicles in 2050. Vehicle Range (km) 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 Technology Demand (TWh/yr) 5275 5557 5994 6586 7331 8231 9285 10494 Battery mass (kg) 158 331 531 769 1075 1431 1858 2400 2050 Technology Demand (TWh/yr) 4345 4426 4549 4737 5017 5368 5798 6344 Battery mass (kg) 79 165.5 265.5 384.5 537.5 715.5 929 1200 The worst-case scenario would be that all vehicles in 2050 have a vehicle range of 800 km and are equipped with current technology. However, this is unlikely to happen and therefore the alternative of estimated technology in 2050 is shown. This technology progress will have a large positive impact on the total electricity demand. However, the size of the impact will decrease when the battery sizes become smaller. For example, the electricity demand of 2050 technology for 800 km BE vehicles is almost 40% lower compared to current technologies (10494 versus 6344 TWh/yr), while this is only 17.6% for 100 km BE vehicles (5275 versus 4345 TWh/yr). This difference can be explained by the mass of the battery in comparison with the basic vehicle weight. The mass of these batteries in lower range vehicles is only a small part of the vehicles basic weight. On the other hand, this is not the case with large batteries as they can be more than two times the basic weight of the vehicle. When technology can decrease the mass by at least 50%, the impact is larger for large BE vehicles than for smaller ones. In conclusion, technology can help to decrease the total electricity demand but depends largely on the used battery size. 4.3 Resource use 4.3.1. Lithium requirements Lithium demand depends on the required resource usage of an electric vehicle. In a study of L. Gains [7], the required lithium for a 100-mile (±160 km) BE vehicle is researched. These results are shown in table 4.3. Furthermore, in this study the energy demand is assumed to be 300 Wh/mile (±188 Wh/km), which is equal to a battery size of 30 kwh in combination with a vehicle range of 100 mile (±160 km). NCA-G batteries require 246 g Li/kWh and the LFP-G 151 g Li/kWh. This is in line with a recent study of W. Tahil [40]: How Much Lithium does a Li-Ion EV battery really need. Table 4.3: Lithium required per passenger vehicle. Based on [7] and in line with [40] NCA-G LFP-G Vehicle range (km) 6.43 32.19 64.37 160.9 6.43 32.19 64.37 160.9 Type HEV PHEV PHEV BEV HEV PHEV PHEV BEV Li cathode (kg) 0.34 1.36 2.75 6.88 0.2 0.8 1.61 4.02 Li electrolyte (kg) 0.04 0.1 0.2 0.51 0.05 0.14 0.26 0.53 Li anode (kg) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total (kg) 0.38 1.46 2.95 7.39 0.25 Ddndjndjndjdndjndjddj 0.94 1.87 4.55 4.3.2 Supply and demand by 2050 Every year 25 kton of lithium metal is produced [40]. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, lithium reserves in 2011 are estimated at 13 Mton [42]. These are reserves that are currently economically feasible to produce. Reserve bases are the absolute amounts of resources in the ground. These reserves are estimated at 33 Mton. When the entire society switches to BE vehicles, the yearly lithium production of 25 kton would have to increase to >25 kton. A battery lifetime for BE vehicles is assumed to be 10 years [43]. Furthermore, it is assumed that lithium can be recycled with a recovery efficiency of at least 90% [7,44]. In 2050 this is assumed to increase to 95%. In table 4.4, the accumulated demand for lithium is shown for 2011 and 2050. A battery energy density of 260 Wh/kg is assumed for future technologies (2050) and current density at 130 Wh/kg (2011). 24

Table 4.4: Accumulated (2011-2050) lithium demand (Mton) with current and future technology for BE vehicles. Note: Assumed are a battery lifetime of 10 years and a recycling efficiency of 90-95%. Range (km) 50 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2011 NCA-G 6.1 12.4 26.2 42.4 62.2 86.5 116.5 153.4 198.0 2011 LFP-G 3.8 7.7 16.1 26.1 38.3 53.3 71.8 94.4 122.0 2050 NCA-G 3.1 6.2 13.1 21.2 31.1 43.2 58.3 76.7 99.0 2050 LFP-G 1.9 3.8 8.1 13.1 19.1 26.6 35.9 47.2 61.0 The red coloured values exceed the reserve bases (32.5 Mton). The green values are within the reserves that are currently economically feasible to produce. The orange values on the other hand are within reserves bases but are currently not feasible to produce. In conclusion, all BE vehicles with a range below 200-300 km can be produced with current energy densities and below a range of 400 km for future battery densities. But, keep in mind that this is only the case when all lithium that is produced is used to produce lithium batteries. Unfortunately, this would not be the case of course. In figure 4.3, the current global lithium consumption is shown. Only 25% of the produced lithium is used for batteries [45]. Less than 1% of this lithium is currently used for BE vehicles. Other 22% Batteries 25% Air conditioning 6% Continuous casting 3% Pharmaceuticals and Polymers 7% Lubricating 12% Ceramics and Glass 18% Aluminium production 4% Chemical Processing 3% Figure 4.3: Lithium consumption by category in 2007-2008. Calculations based on [45] Ullmann s encyclopaedia [ 46 ] argued that other materials could substitute lithium for other applications than batteries. But, portable batteries for laptops, cell phones et cetera will increase their demand in 2050. When calculating the available lithium reserves for BE vehicles, these demands have to be taken into account. Available lithium for BE vehicles in 2050 25% of annually produced lithium is used for the production of portable devices such as laptops, mobile phones et cetera (figure 4.3). This is equal to a lithium demand of 6.25 kton/yr. This demand increases in the future because also this sector is growing. Therefore an annually growth rate of 3% is assumed to be correct which is reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [47]. Total demand for batteries in 2050 (other than batteries for BE vehicles) increases to 20.4 kton/yr. Accumulated (2011-2050) this will result in a total demand of 491 kton. In conclusion, in the most optimal situation, the availability of lithium resources for BE vehicles is 12.5 Mton for reserves and 32.5 Mton for reserve bases (instead of 13 and 33 Mton) In graph 4.3 the accumulated demand for lithium (including recycling of lithium) is shown against time. Assumed in these scenarios is: All vehicles in 2050 are BE vehicles No mixture of battery sizes, only 1 single battery size as mentioned in each scenario Linear progression of battery energy density. Beginning from 130 Wh/kg in 2010 to 260 Wh/kg in 2050. 25

Lithium (Mt) LFP-G lithium batteries consume less lithium per kwh and therefore this type is used in the forecasting scenarios. Recycling lithium recovery efficiency between 90 and 95% (linear progress) 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 Reserve Base Reserves BEV-100km BEV-200km BEV-400km BEV-600km BEV-800km 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Graph 4.3: Accumulated lithium demand 2011-2050 with an energy density of 130 up to 260Wh/kg. Reserves are based on the USGS 2011 [42]. The attached table of graph 4.3 is given in Appendix B1. Available lithium reserve bases (12.5 Mton) can cover the demand for BE vehicles with a range of 400-500 km. Vehicles with a range of 100 or 200 km will give no direct resource problems. Unfortunately, these cannot compete with current ICE vehicle ranges (>800 km). A possible option could be a combination of a limited BEV range (16-200 km) and an ICE vehicle to extent the range when the batteries are exhausted. This alternative will be discussed in chapter 5 in the form of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV). The accumulated lithium demand for BEV-400 km vehicles is between the reserves and reserves bases. Currently they cannot be produced because this is not economically feasible. However, when a higher price would be paid for every tonne of Lithium, these reserves can increase. This can happen when for example the demand for BE vehicles increases and therefore the demand for Lithium increases. In this case, a higher price for Lithium can be paid (same situation as for oil consumption). Therefore the BEV-400 km is a realistic alternative in 2050. In conclusion, BEV-200 can be produced with current reserves and BEV-400 can become economically feasible in 2050. 4.4 Emissions Electric vehicles have no Tank-To-Wheel emissions. The only emissions from electric vehicles are from the electricity production. In this research, six possible electricity production scenarios are applied, each with their own CO 2 intensity. Most are based on data of the International Energy Agency (IEA). These electricity scenarios apply for all alternative vehicles techniques that are discussed in this research and require electricity. - Current electricity mix The current average (weighted) worldwide CO 2 emissions from generation of one kwh are 507 grams of CO 2 [48]. - IEA BAU Current emissions would decrease to 459 gco 2 /kwh by the year 2050 when nothing structural is changed in the production of electricity. This scenario is called IEA BAU and assumed is that we implement renewable electricity sources at today s rate [48]. - IEA The IEA [48] estimated that when society starts to invest largely in renewables, we could reach 89 gco 2 /kwh in 2050 (82% of the generated electricity is produced by renewable electricity sources). This is the most optimistic scenario according to the IEA and is called IEA. - 100% renewables As indication, in some scenarios a 100% renewable electricity production scenario is added. It is assumed that this scenario has a CO 2 intensity of 0 gco 2 /kwh. 26

CO 2 emissions gco 2 /km - Coal 887 gco 2 emissions by generation of one kwh by an efficient Coal fired electricity power plant [48]. - NG-CC 407 gco 2 emissions by generation of one kwh by an efficient Natural Gas Combined Cycle electricity power plant [48]. In graph 4.4, the individual vehicle emissions are shown when the batteries are charged with one of the mentioned electricity production scenarios. As an indication, four ICE vehicles are added with their entire WTW CO 2 emission per driven kilometres and their vehicle range on one fuel tank of fossil fuels. 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Coal 887 gco2/kwh World 2010 507 gco2/kwh World 2050 459 gco2/kwh NG-CC 407 gco2/kwh IEA Renewables 2050 89 gco2/kwh Audi A8 4.2L TDI 350PK VW Polo Blue Motion 1.2 Toyota Prius 2010 Hummer 6.8L V8 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 Vehicle range (km) Graph 4.4: CO 2 emissions per driven kilometre of BEV and ICE vehicles Current produced ICE vehicles (Toyota Prius 2010, VW Polo 2011) are able to emit lower WTW CO 2 emissions per driven kilometre than BE vehicles when the batteries are charged according to the BAU electricity scenarios. BE vehicles can only reach lower CO 2 emissions when the expected electricity mix generates electricity in 2050 by the IEA (89 gco 2 /kwh) In other words; renewable (or other low emission electricity production) electricity sources have to be implemented to make BE vehicle sustainable from a CO 2 point of view. 4.5 Scenarios BEV-200 are used in the following scenarios because these can currently be produced from a resource point of view. Between the reserves that are economically feasible and the reserve bases are the BEV- 400. These vehicles can become economically feasible to produce in the future. BEV-800 exceed the reserve bases but are added to research the effects from a CO 2 point of view. Selected electricity generation scenarios mentioned in paragraph 4.4 charge the batteries of BE vehicles. Furthermore, assumed is that the technological progress in, for example battery density, mass reduction, aerodynamic improvements et cetera are linear in time from 2010 up to 2050. 27

CO 2 emissions (Mt) 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 BEV-200 BAU BEV-200 IEA BEV-400 BAU BEV-400 Renewables BEV-400 Coal BEV-800 BAU BEV-800 IEA 50% Reduction 80% Reduction Graph 4.5: BEV vehicles scenarios 2010-2050. It is assumed that vehicles are improved according to result of chapter 3. The attached table of graph 4.5 is given in Appendix B2 In all BAU electricity generation scenarios, the BEV-200 and 400 can reduce total CO 2 emissions compared to current emissions (±3300 Mton/yr). However, this is not the case for BEV-800 vehicles. Because of a relatively large battery mass, the total demand for electricity increases and therefore the total CO 2 emissions. As an indication, a BEV-400 in combination with a coal-fired electricity generation scenario is shown in graph 4.5. BE vehicles will not reach both reduction goals when the batteries are charged according to the BAU or Coal electricity scenario. Therefore the CO 2 intensity of electricity production has to decrease before they can become sustainable and reach one of the reduction goals. In all IEA renewable scenarios (also the BEV-800 variant), the 50% reduction goal can be achieved. For the BEV-200 it is even possible to reach the 80% reduction goal. In conclusion, to achieve a sustainable CO 2 situation for BE vehicles, renewable electricity or nuclear power is needed for charging the batteries. Furthermore, vehicle improvements that are reported in chapter 3 are necessary. 28

CHAPTER 5. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES BE vehicles need an enormous battery pack to compete with current standard vehicle ranges, which are up to 800 km. The solution that is given in the BEV chapter was to install smaller batteries in vehicles, which leads to a limited range. This results in a lower resource demand (lithium) and less life cycle emissions. The main drawback of a small battery is the limited vehicle range. What will happen when the batteries are exhausted? A Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEV) has an IC engine as a back-up to extend the range. An example of a PHE vehicle is a newly introduced Opel Ampera [49]. When the batteries are exhausted, an efficient IC engine will charge the batteries during driving which is the only purpose of the IC engine. The advantage is that the IC engine will run on a constant rpm, which makes a combustion engine more energy efficient. 5.1 ICE and EV powertrain A PHE vehicle is a BE vehicle with an internal combustion engine. Important is to study what the driven kilometres are with or without the use of this engine. The electric powertrain of these vehicles are energy efficient but the battery size determines the electric vehicle range. Ranges of 16, 24, 48 and 60 kilometres are chosen to research the energy demand, resource use and CO 2 emissions. The relatively small battery has no significant effect on the mass of the vehicle and therefore also no effect on the energy demands of the vehicle itself. To determine which trips are covered by each powertrain, average travel patterns are analysed. In figure 5.1, the shares in percentages of total annually travelled distances are shown by purposes. Sport/ entertainment 7% Holiday 14% Commuting 19% Visiting friends 20% Personal business 7% Other escort 7% Shopping 12% Business 9% Education 3% Escort education 2% Figure 5.1: Average travel distance. Calculations based on the National Traval Survey [50]. Figure 5.1 can be divided into three categories. First, Work (Commuting, Business), the Holidays and the rest are Personal trips. A travel distance study of NatCen [51] will cover the Personal category. a study of the Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) [52] is used for travel distance in the Work category. As last, assumptions are made for the Holiday category because a lack of data. The result of combining these analyses is shown in figure 5.2. The purpose of this graph is to research the percentage of annually travelled distances of different types of powertrains (EV/ICE) for calculating for example total CO 2 emissions, energy demand et cetera. 29

PHEV-60 PHEV-48 PHEV-24 EV powertrain ICE powertrain PHEV-16 Figure 5.2: Share of EV and ICE powertrain in percentages of yearly travelled kilometers. Note: Assumed is that all PHEV in 2050 can be charged at work. For personal trips this is not the case and the cars cannot be charged at their destination. Holiday purposes are assumed to rely for 90% on the ICE powertrain. A PHEV-16 will cover 58% of all the trips on the electric powertrain (EV). This is in line with the specifications of a just introduced Toyota Prius Plug-in with an EV range of 15 km [53]. The difference in EV use between a 48 and a 60 km PHE vehicle is only 1%. Therefore the 16 and the 48 km versions of a PHE vehicle are used to investigate the total CO 2 emissions. The 60 km version has no significant EV range advantage to that of a 48 km version and will therefore not be mentioned further. 5.2 Energy demand Most of the trips are covered by the electric powertrain of PHE vehicles. In this paragraph the total electricity demand is discussed. In the next paragraph, the demand for fossil fuels is discussed in the form of oil consumption (resource use). PHEV batteries are relatively small compared to those for BE vehicles. Therefore the advantage of a higher battery energy density (260 Wh/kg in 2050) can be neglected because it has no significant effect for the vehicle mass. 30 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Table 5.1: Electricity demand for PHE vehicles in 2050. Note: assumed is a charging efficiency of 95%. Electricity demand EV 2050 (TWh) PHEV-16 EV 2999 PHEV-24 EV 3440 PHEV-48 EV 4222 PHEV-60 EV 4290 The demand for electricity is less than for BE vehicles. Whether this demand can be covered by for example renewable electricity sources or not, is researched in chapter 8. 5.3 Resource use 5.3.1 Oil PHE vehicles have an efficient IC engine, which decreases the total fuel consumption per vehicle compared to a full ICE vehicle. In figure 3.1, three scenarios were researched. A PHEV scenario would lie between the improved ICE line and the 100% renewables. The total energy demand for all IC engines in PHE vehicles are shown in table 5.2. For example, oil consumption for PHEV-16 would be around 1250*10 9 l/day and oil will be exhausted around the year 2060. Once more, it is assumed that oil reserves are between 207 and 223*10 12 l. Table 5.2: Fossil fuel demand for PHE vehicles in 2050 in L/day and in EJ/yr. 10 9 l/day EJ/yr PHEV-16 ICE 1247 7.63 PHEV-24 ICE 995 6.09 PHEV-48 ICE 555 3,40 PHEV-60 ICE 524 3.20 5.3.2 Lithium PHE vehicles do not require large amounts of lithium because of the relatively small battery size. In table 5.3 the accumulated lithium demand by the year 2050 are shown in kilotons. NCA-G and LFP-G

Lithium (kton) lithium batteries are discussed as described in paragraph 4.2.2. For detailed information on the state of technology in 2011 and in 2050, see also paragraph 4.2.2. Table 5.3: Accumulated lithium demand for the 2011 and 2050 state of technology as described in paragraph 4.2.2 PHEV-16 PHEV-24 PHEV-48 PHEV-60 Battery size (kwh) 3.2 4.8 9.7 12.1 2011 NCA-G (kton) 1947 2924 5877 7369 2011 LFP-G (kton) 1198 1800 3618 4538 2050 NCA-G (kton) 974 1462 2939 3684 2050 LFP-G (kton) 599 900 1809 2269 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 PHEV-16 PHEV-24 PHEV-48 PHEV-60 500 0 2010 2030 2050 Graph 5.1: Accumulated lithium demand 2011-2050 for PHE vehicles. (Note: The reserve basses are 32.5 Mton and reserves 12.5 Mton). Assumption developed for graph 4.3 applies also for this accumulated lithium demand. The attached table of graph 5.1 is given in Appendix C1. In graph 5.1 the accumulated demand for LFP-G lithium batteries is shown. This type of battery is chosen because these require the least amount of lithium per kwh. The technology progress is also taken into account. A linear progress in battery density from 130 Wh/kg up to 260 Wh/kg in 2050 is assumed. The demand for lithium will not exceed the reserves or reserve bases (12.5 & 32.5 Mton). In conclusion, the lithium reserves are large enough to cover the accumulated demand in 2050 for PHE vehicles. 5.4 Scenarios CO 2 emissions from PHE vehicles are a combination of an electric powertrain and a combustion engine. The ICE powertrain is improved as discussed in chapter 3. Furthermore, selected electricity production scenarios of paragraph 4.4 charges the batteries for PHEV-16 & 48. 31

CO 2 Emisions (Mton) 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2050 BAU: PHEV-16 2050 BAU: PHEV-48 2050 IEA: PHEV-16 2050 IEA: PHEV-48 2050 Renewables: PHEV-16 2050 Renewables: PHEV-48 50% CO2 Reduction 1990 80% CO2 Reduction 1990 ICE Improved Graph 5.2: CO 2 emissions from PHE vehicles. Coloured straight lines are PHEV-16 vehicles; the coloured dashed lines are PHEV-48 vehicles. Note: Assumed is that PHE vehicles are improved as discussed in chapter 3. (The attached table of graph 5.2 is given in Appendix C2) PHE vehicles of which the batteries are charged by the BAU electricity scenario would have no significant positive effect on total CO 2 emissions. To reach the reduction goals, renewable electricity sources are needed. This is demonstrated by the PHE vehicles, which are charged by the IEA scenario. In this situation, the 50% reduction goal can be reached with a PHEV-48. In all discussed scenarios, a vehicle with a larger EV powertrain range (48 instead of 16 km) emits less CO 2 emissions than a smaller range. In conclusion, an electric powertrain is less pollutant than the ICE powertrain by the year 2050 (in the IEA scenario or even in the BAU scenario). With a large range, the EV powertrain can cover longer distances and therefore the vehicle emits less CO 2 emissions per driven kilometres Nevertheless, there is a break-even point for the battery size (in other words the vehicle range) towards the benefits of an EV powertrain above that of an ICE powertrain. This break-even point for the BAU electricity scenario is with a battery size that can cover a range of 256 km. In other words, a battery that can cover ranges up to 256 km is better from a CO 2 point of view than the ICE powertrain of a PHE vehicle. In conclusion, the IC engine in these vehicles emits relatively high CO 2 emissions per driven kilometre, which results that only a PHEV-48 in combination with the IEA electricity scenario could become CO 2 sustainable in 2050. A PHEV-16 vehicle cannot be sustainable because this vehicle will rely too much on its IC engine (42% of all travelled distances). 32

CHAPTER 6. FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLES A fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) is another technique for passenger vehicles. Hydrogen is not a source of energy but rather an energy carrier and it can be produced by using the energy of almost any electricity source. Hydrogen is converted into electricity by using a fuel cell that is installed in a passenger vehicle. Fuel cells convert hydrogen into electricity, water and heat. Detailed information on the production of hydrogen is given in the first paragraph. Furthermore, the different types of fuel cells will be discussed. After that, the material and energy demand will be analysed together with the total CO 2 emissions when the entire society switches to FCE vehicles in 2050. 6.1 Hydrogen production Hydrogen can be produced by different techniques. In this research the most common and efficient techniques (from an energy and emission point of view) are discussed. Steam methane reforming (SMR) SMR is the most commonly used technique to produce hydrogen [54]. This process requires fossil fuels and therefore this will not solve the CO 2 problem. However, an advantage of reforming methane is the possibility to capture the released CO 2 and store it elsewhere. 9.40 kg CO 2 is produced by reforming natural gas to 1 kg of hydrogen (calculation based on [55]). Electrolysis of water This process splits water into oxygen and hydrogen. The higher heating value (HHV) of hydrogen is 141.80 MJ/kg [56]. The theoretical energy that is needed to produce 1 kg of hydrogen is 39.4 kwh (141.80/3.6). Large commercial electrolysis units require 54 kwh of electricity to accomplish this process [54], which is equal to an efficiency of around 72%. This chemical reaction of splitting water will produce no emissions, and only the required electricity has to be generated. The emission of the electricity productions has to be taken into account. For example, 1 kg hydrogen that is produced by electricity from a coal-fired power plant (887 gco 2 /kwh) emits 49 kg of CO 2. High temperature electrolysis Thermal energy and electricity can produce hydrogen at a higher overall efficiency. This technique can be implemented in new nuclear power plants. Electrolysis with thermal energy (in the form of steam) between 373 K and 1373 K will decrease the required electrical energy compared to electrolysis at a temperature of 293 K [57]. The relation between thermal energy and electric energy is linear. In this case any extra thermal energy will increase the efficiency of an electrolysis process. According to Argonne National Laboratories [58], 30.5 kwh of electric power is required to produce one kilogram of hydrogen in a high temperature electrolysis nuclear power plant. Coal gasification Hydrogen can also be produced by the gasification of coal using oxygen and steam. Like SMR, CO 2 emissions are still a problem but these can be captured up to 90% [47]. 6.2 Fuel cell techniques Fuel cells convert chemical energy into electricity with the use of oxygen or another oxidizing agent. Hydrogen fuel is currently used in all fuel cell vehicles but natural gas, methane and ethanol can also be used. In this research, only hydrogen as a fuel type is discussed. Fuel cells have a negative layer (anode) and a positive layer (cathode). Between these, an electrolyte is installed to allow charges to move between the layers. Electrons will travel from the negative layer, to the positive via an external circuit to produce a direct current [59]. On the negative layer, fuel (hydrogen) will be oxidized and changed in a positive charged ion and a negative charged electron. The electrolyte between the layers only lets the ions pass but not the electrons, these will have to travel via this external circuit. In a fuel cell, different electrolytes can be installed. In table 6.1, five common fuel cells with different electrolytes are shown. 33

Table 6.1: Fuel cell technologies and their properties. Based on [60] Fuel Cell Type Electrolyte Operation Temperature (K) Phosphoric Acid (PAFC) H 3PO 4 423-493 Molten Carbonate (Na,K,Li) 2CO 3 773-973 Solid Oxide (SOFC) YSZ 973-1273 Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Sulfonated Polymers 343-373 Alkaline (AFC) Aq. KOH 373-523 Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) has the lowest working temperature and is therefore the only one suitable for vehicles. Phosphoric Acid (PAFC) comes close to the temperature of PEM fuel cells, but has a typical size of around 400 kwe, which is equal to a power of about 550 horsepower. None of the current vehicles use this amount of power and for this reason these will not be used in vehicles. In this research the PEM fuel cell will be used for vehicle purposes. For splitting hydrogen in a PEM fuel cell, platinum membranes are used. Platinum is the best option, because for example iron, nitrogen or carbons are not suitable as an electrolyte due to low reaction rates [61]. 6.3 Energy demand The energy demand to produce hydrogen depends on the method that is used (paragraph 6.1), the form of hydrogen (liquid or compressed gas) and the transport of hydrogen (truck or pipeline). The energy demand per driving kilometre depends on the refilling type and the way of transport (liquid, compressed gas, pipeline or transported by truck). The efficiency of a fuel cell (PEM) and the energy demand of an electric vehicle determine the range per kilogram of hydrogen. In this paragraph the efficiencies (WTT and TTW), energy demand and material use are discussed. 6.3.1 Well-to-Tank efficiency The WTT efficiency is a multiplication of all efficiencies that are relevant from the well to the tank. Each hydrogen production method, which is discussed in paragraph 6.1, has its own efficiencies and resource use. The total overall efficiency of a FCE vehicle can be calculated with formula 6.1. The possibilities to produce hydrogen and their efficiencies are shown in figure 6.1. After production, hydrogen can be stored in a liquid or a compressed gas form. After that, it can be transported and filled in different ways as shown in the figure. (6.1) Figure 6.1: Efficiencies of hydrogen production, conversion, storage and transport. Based on [6,55,62,63,64]) 34

For example, liquid hydrogen that is produced by electrolysis using electricity that is generated by renewables and filled on-board in the same form (liquid) has a total Well-to-Tank efficiency at around 55%. This is also the most efficient way to produce, store and transport hydrogen. The least efficient way has an efficiency of 18%. Liquid hydrogen is relatively easy and efficient to transport compared to compressed hydrogen (less transport needed because of a higher energy volume) [65]. Because a liquid form of hydrogen is the most efficient WTT method to transport, this path will be used for fuelling FCE vehicles. The efficiency of the liquefying process depends on the facility size. The extra (electric) energy that is needed to liquefy hydrogen is shown in figure 6.2. The efficiency of liquefying hydrogen increases with the size of the facility. With a production of 1000 kg/h or more, the extra energy that is needed is about 30.3 MJ/kgH 2. This is equal to an energy loss of 22% per kgh 2 (see also figure 6.1). Figure 6.2: Extra energy requirements to liquefy hydrogen [62] The most optimal electrolysis WTT pathway (figure 6.1) has an efficiency of maximum 55%. According to U. Bossel [62], this will never be higher (because this is almost the theoretical efficiency of producing, liquefying and transporting hydrogen) and can only be achieved by using 100% renewable electricity source. 6.3.2 Tank-to-Wheel efficiency Current fuel cells (PEM) have an electrical efficiency of maximum 55% [6,66]. One kilogram of hydrogen contains 141.8 MJ of energy or 39.4 kwh (HHV). With this mentioned efficiency, electrical output would be around 21.7 kwh. Furthermore, an average electric vehicle has an energy demand of around 200 Wh/km (calculation based on [6,55]). When all electricity, which is converted by the fuel cell, is used for powering the vehicle, the range of a FCE vehicle is 108 km/kglh 2. 6.4 Resource use 6.4.1 Platinum The main component of a PEM fuel cell is a platinum membrane. Currently no other material can be used more efficient than platinum to convert hydrogen into electricity, water and heat. The platinum demand depends on the amount of platinum used in fuels cells (grams of platinum per kw power) and the stack size (kw power per vehicle). 52% of the current platinum is used in exhaust catalyst systems in ICE vehicles. This is equal to an amount of around 100 ton/year. 26% is used for non-automotive industries (electronics, glass production, oil refiners) and the rest is used by the jewelry industry [67]. When the entire society switches to FCE vehicles, no catalysts are needed for ICE vehicles. Therefore 52% of the production can be used to prepare fuel cells. Each year 27 ton is recycled from vehicle exhaust catalysts, which is equal to 13.5% of total production [67]. This division in platinum use is assumed to be the same in 2050 however, the recycled amounts will be 27 ton in the first year and decrease (linear) to zero in 2050 because then all vehicles are FCE vehicles and all ICE vehicles are substituted. According to the United States Department of Energy (DOE) [68], the standard for a passenger vehicle is 80 kwe of power (for example a Nissan Leaf, figure 6.3). Platinum use in a fuel cell is currently between 0.35 and 0.48 g/kwe [69,70] depending on the production technique. DOE estimated that this 35

Platinum (kton) would decrease to about 0.2 g/kwe in the coming decades. Assumed in this research is that current technology of fuel cell production uses 0.35g per kwe power and future use (year 2050) will decrease to 0.2 g per kwe. This technology progression is assumed to be linear up to 2050. Current platinum production is approximately 200 ton/year [71]. The estimated reserves are 71 kton and the reserve base is slightly larger with 80 kton. The estimations of available platinum for FCE vehicles are based on the divisions mentioned earlier (52% substitution from automotive industry + recycling) and are called FCEV reserves and FCEV reserve base. Tree types of vehicles are implemented in the platinum demand and supply scenarios by the year 2050. A Nissan Leaf represents the DOE standard, a middle class vehicle is a Mitsubishi i-miev with 50 kw and a small vehicle for two persons is a Smart ED with 30 kw (figure 6.3). 60 50 40 30 20 80kWe 50kWe 30kWe FCEV Reserves FCEV Reserve Base 10 0 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Graph 6.1: Accumulated platinum demand 2011-2050 (kton). The attached table of graph 6.1 is given in Appendix D1. Figure 6.3: From left to right: Nissan Leaf 80kW, Mitsubishi i-miev 50kW, Smart ED 30kW 6.4.2 Methane In paragraph 6.1, methane reforming was mentioned as the next best option from a CO 2 point of view. Only 3% of methane is currently used as a transport fuel. What will happen with the methane resources when they are used to produce hydrogen? To produce one kilogram of hydrogen, 4.26 m 3 methane is required [55]. The total demand will increase to nearly 4.0*10 12 m 3 in 2050. Methane will exhaust by the year 2059 instead of 2070 with current consumption as shown in table 3.4. 6.5 Emissions FCE vehicles have an electric powertrain. This means that these vehicles will produce no CO 2 during driving. The only CO 2 emissions that are relevant are those emitted during the production of the fuel. First, emissions of hydrogen are discussed. Next, this is translated to emissions per driven kilometres to make it comparable to other alternatives described in this research. 36

6.5.1 Well-to-Tank emissions As discussed in paragraph 6.1, hydrogen can be produced in different ways. CO 2 emissions for electrolysis come from the production of electricity and not from the production of hydrogen during the process of electrolysis. However, the CO 2 emissions of gasification and reforming of fossil fuels occur during the production of hydrogen. Liquefaction of hydrogen: Extra energy is needed to obtain liquid hydrogen. Electric energy has to be used to accomplish this process. In table 6.2 different electricity production scenarios show the CO 2 emission of this extra energy consumption. Table 6.2: CO 2 emissions of liquefying hydrogen by different energy sources Energy source kgco 2/kg liquid H 2 100% Renewable energy 0 Coal-fired power plant (887gCO 2/kWh) 7.47 Natural gas-fired power plant (407gCO 2/kWh) 4.02 World-mix average 2010 (507gCO 2/kWh) 4.27 World-mix average 2050 (459gCO 2/kWh) 3.86 Renewables 2050 according to IEA (89gCO 2/kWh) 0.75 Steam methane reforming (SMR): The maximum energy efficiency of methane reforming is 86% [55]. With a CO 2 content of 57 gco 2 /MJ, the emissions of producing one kilogram of hydrogen are 9.40 kg of CO 2. Reforming this to a liquid, will cost extra (electrical) energy and will cause extra emissions (table 6.2) added to the mentioned 9.40 kg of CO 2. An advantage of reforming methane is the possibility of Carbon Capture Storage (CCS). As mentioned, 90% of CO 2 from methane reforming can be captured. In this case, the (emitted) emissions will decrease to 0.94 kgco 2 /kgh 2. Electrolysis: The CO 2 intensity of electricity production determines the emissions of producing hydrogen with the process of electrolysis. In table 6.3, the amount of CO 2 emissions that are emitted by the production of one kilogram of liquid hydrogen are calculated. Table 6.3: CO 2 emissions of electrolysis hydrogen production by different electricity production scenarios. Energy source kgco 2/kg liquid H 2 100% Renewable energy 0 Coal-fired power plant (887gCO 2/kWh) 55.99 Natural gas-fired power plant (407gCO 2/kWh) 30.17 World-mix average 2010 (507gCO 2/kWh) 32.00 World-mix average 2050 (459gCO 2/kWh) 28.97 Renewables 2050 according to IEA (89gCO 2/kWh) 5.62 High temperature electrolysis: Hydrogen production by high temperature electrolysis will only be possible in nuclear power plants. During the use-phase of HTE electrolysis no CO 2 emissions will be emitted. The extra energy that is needed to liquefy hydrogen is included in this research. Coal gasification The gasification of coal has a maximum energy efficiency of 60% [72]. The CO 2 content of hard coal is 92 g/mj [72]. This would result in 21.74 kg CO 2 for producing 1 kgh 2, excluding the liquefaction process (see table 6.2 for these CO 2 emissions). When CCS is used in this process, these emissions can decrease to 2.17 kg CO 2 /kgh 2. 37

6.5.2 Well-to-Wheel emissions Emissions emitted during the production of hydrogen can be translated into emissions per driven kilometres to compare it to for example BEV. A selection of options and their emissions is given in table 6.4. These are compared in Chapter 9. Table 6.4: WTW CO 2 emissions (gco 2 /km) from different production techniques and electricity scenario Method Energy source Liquefy energy source gco 2 /km Method Energy source Liquefy energy source gco 2 /km Electrolysis 100% Renewable 100% Renewable 0 Reforming Natural Gas World-mix 2010 126 Electrolysis Coal-fired PP Coal-fired PP 517 Reforming Natural Gas 100% Renewable 87 Electrolysis Coal-fired PP + CCS Coal-fired PP + CCS 52 Reforming Natural Gas +CCS World-mix 2050 44 Electrolysis Natural Gas PP Natural Gas PP 237 Reforming Natural Gas + CCS 100% Renewable 9 Electrolysis World-mix 2010 World-mix 2010 295 Gasification Coal no CCS World-mix 2010 240 Electrolysis World-mix 2050 World-mix 2050 267 Gasification Coal no CCS 100% Renewable 201 Electrolysis Nuclear PP Nuclear PP 0 Gasification Coal with CCS World-mix 2050 56 HTE Nuclear HTE Nuclear HTE 0 Gasification Coal with CCS 100% Renewable 20 6.6 Scenarios Hydrogen production via electrolysis as well as reforming or gasification requires large amounts of energy. This will generally result in significant high CO 2 emissions when this is applied to the current electricity generation (BAU) and current technologies. In these FCEV scenarios, assumed is that all vehicles in 2050 are FCE vehicles. Furthermore, vehicles are improvements as described in paragraph 3.1 & 3.2. 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 BAU Electrolysis BAU Electrolysis IEA Reforming Reforming CCS Gasification Gasification CCS High Temp Electrolysis 50% Reduction 80% Reduction Graph 6.2: Fuel cell electric vehicle scenarios 2010-2050. The attached table of graph 6.2 is given in Appendix D2. In the electrolysis BAU scenario, liquid hydrogen is produced with the current electricity mix. Compared to the BAU scenario, which is discussed in graph 2.7, this has only a small positive effect and emissions will still increase till 2050. The use of electrolysis with the BAU electricity generation scenario will not be a sustainable situation and cannot achieve one of the reduction goals. Also Gasification of coal is not an option. The emissions are a little bit lower than the Electrolysis BAU scenario but are still increasing. The Reforming scenario has a more positive impact on total CO 2 emissions but methane is a fossil fuel that can be exhausted. 38

Electrolysis FCE vehicles cannot become sustainable by using the BAU electricity generation scenario. Also using coal or methane for the production of hydrogen is not sustainable in 2050 because these resources can be depleted. Besides this, about 90% CCS is required to become sustainable from a CO 2 point of view. With the electrolysis FCEV IEA scenario, CO 2 emissions can be reduced significantly and this result in 47% lower emissions of that of 1990 levels. In conclusion, the use of renewable electricity sources can make FCE vehicles sustainable but a maximum CO 2 intensity of 78.9 gco 2 /kwh (90% of the generated electricity is produced by renewable electricity sources) is required to achieve the 50% reduction goal. Unfortunately, large amount of renewable electricity sources are needed to supply this demand. This is discussed in more detail in chapter 8. 39

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CHAPTER 7. BIOFUEL ICE VEHICLES The term Biofuel is a collection of different kinds of fuels that are produced from biomass. Biofuels exist in different forms such as liquid, gaseous or solid state. In this chapter, the focus is that ICE vehicles use 100% biofuels instead of conventional fossil fuels such as gasoline or diesel. Biofuels like biodiesel and bio-ethanol can be produced from various resources. Biofuels derived from algae (3 rd generation) are not mentioned in this research because this fabrication process is currently still under development. Therefore, the energy and emission results from this process are not well known and for this reason not suitable. In table 7.1, the used resources for biofuels are shown. Table 7.1: Biomass resource for making biofuels. Based on [10]. 1st Generation 2nd Generation Biodiesel Bio-ethanol Crop residues Non-food crops Forestry residues Oil Palm Sugarcane Barley Straw Switch grass Logging residue Coconut Sugar beet Maize Straw Reed Canary grass Primary mill residue Rapeseed Sweet Potato Rice Straw Miscanthus Secondary mill residue Sunflower Cassava Sorghum Straw Jatropha Forest thinning s Soybean Rice Wheat Straw Groundnut Maize Sugarcane bagasse Castor Potato Mustard Wheat Cotton Barley Sesame Sorghum 7.1 Biofuel production The first generation biofuels that are shown in table 7.1 are in competition with the world s food supply and are commonly called conventional biofuels. Conventional biodiesel is mainly produced in European countries with the process of transesterification. The most commonly used conversion technique for the production of conventional bio-ethanol is fermentation and hydrolysis. Second generation biofuels are so called advanced biofuels and do not compete directly with the world s food supply. The resources are residues from food crops, forestry residues and non-food crops such as grass. The conversion techniques for advanced biofuels are gasification, pyrolysis, fermentation or hydrolysis. 7.2 Energy demand What will happen when in 2050 all ICE vehicles only use biofuels? Currently only 2.7% of all transport fuels are from biofuels. The demand for biofuel depends on the fuel consumption of ICE vehicles. In this research, it is assumed that in 2050 all vehicles are improved as described in chapter 3. In this situation the total energy demand in 2050 for biofuels would be 40.3 EJ. In the BAU scenario, this was 85.1 EJ. A detailed analysis of these energy demands is already reported in table 3.5. Due to the improvements of ICE vehicles, the total energy demand will decrease by a factor 2. About 87% of the demand would be bio-ethanol, the rest is assumed to be biodiesel (division discussed in table 2.1). 7.3 Resource use Biomass potentials are not well-known as for example lithium reserves. In a recent study, the OECD/IEA [73] argued that: recent studies on biomass potentials show that expert assessments vary broadly. The indicated global potentials range from a potential of 33 EJ/yr (Hoogwijk et al., 2003 [74]) up to 1500 EJ/yr in 2050 in the most ambitious scenario (Smeets et al., 2007 [75]). In graph 7.1 the most well-known studies of biomass potentials (combination of 1 st and 2 nd generation biofuels) are shown. 41

Biomass potential EJ/yr 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 Maximum Potential Minimum Potential Demand Improved ICE Demand BAU on biofuel 400 200 0 Fischer et al., 2001 Hoogwijk et al., 2003 Hoogwijk et al., 2005 IEA, 2006 IEA, 2006 Average Smeets et al., 2007 Graph 7.1: Total accumulative biomass potential (1 st generation and 2 nd generation). Note: None of the studies gave detailed information between what would be the potential of 1 st or 2 nd generation biomass. Technical potential studies of the IEA (2006, [76]) and Smeets et al. [75] are moreover a combination of different studies. Calculations of Smeets et al. assume a highly advanced and intensive agriculture and large shares of land will be available for biomass production. Many argue that Smeets et al. overestimate both the minimum and maximum potentials. The studies of Hoogwijk et al. 2003 & 2005 [77] are currently seen as the most accurate and detailed. These results describe the geographic potential of biomass. The other studies (Fischer et al. [78] & IEA, 2006 Average [76]) describe economic potentials. None of the studies take into account the conversion to biofuels. Energy demand for biofuels in the BAU scenario is 85.1 EJ/yr and in the improved ICE scenario 40.3 EJ/yr as described in paragraph 7.2. However, biomass has to be converted into biofuels. In this process, energy is lost. A study of M. Johnston [79] and Biograce [80] give an average conversion efficiency of 35% including harvesting et cetera (for example when 100 EJ biomass is available, after conversion only 35 EJ of biofuel energy is left). Therefore realistic biomass demands in 2050 will result in around 115 EJ/yr for improved ICE vehicles (40.3/0.35) and 243 EJ/yr (85.1/0.35) for the current fuel consumption of vehicles. As shown in graph 7.1, the demand for biomass (green line is BAU demand of 243 EJ, black line is Improved ICE demand) can be covered by the potential of biomass. Keep in mind, as mentioned earlier, that these potentials vary enormously between studies. Furthermore, no distinction between 1 st and 2 nd generation biofuels is made in one of these studies. 7.4 Emissions To calculate CO 2 emissions of biofuelled ICE vehicles, the used resources for producing biofuels are needed because they differ for each used resource. None of the studies that are mentioned in graph 7.1 give information on these. In this paragraph first the used 1 st and 2 nd generation resources are investigated and after that, the matching CO 2 emissions are discussed. 7.4.1 Used resources (1 st generation) In a bottom-up approach research of M. Johnston [79], the potential of biodiesel and bio-ethanol is calculated with the use of M3 cropland datasets [81] (Crop yields and available areas are calculated based on mean climate, soil conditions and input management, social, political and economic influences). In this case he was able to investigate the used resources for producing biofuels for vehicles. These results are shown in figure 7.1. 42

Potential (EJ/yr): Bio-ethanol Production Potential (EJ/yr): Biodiesel Production Barley. 1.30 Sorghum. 0.87 Sugarcane. 4.12 Sugarbeet. 0.97 Sweet Potato. 0.67 Cassava. 1.15 Castor; 0.03 Groundnut; 0.56 Mustard; 0.01 Sesame; 0.07 Oil Palm; 1.53 Wheat. 8.75 Potato. 1.33 Rice. 10.09 Soybean; 1.72 Coconut; 0.39 Maize. 9.74 Sunflower; 0.58 Rapeseed; 0.81 Figure 7.1: Biofuel potentials per resource. Calculations based on [79] According to M. Johnston, figure 7.1 gives an indication of the resources that have to be used together with their maximum potential in EJ/yr of biofuel. The resources maize, wheat, sugarcane and rice do have the highest bio-ethanol potential. For biodiesel these are palm oil, soybeans and rapeseed. These resources for biofuels are used in further calculations, because this is the only biofuel study that developed a detailed distinction between the used resources for producing automotive biofuels. In conclusion, because of the largest potential, maize, wheat, sugarcane and rice are used for producing bio-ethanol and palm oil, soybeans and rapeseed for producing biodiesel. 7.4.2 Used resources (2 nd generation) The total potential of 2 nd generation biofuels is assumed to be around 25 EJ/yr and is based on a study of the World Bank [82]. In this report, the used resources for biodiesel are wood, agriculture and forestry residues. Furthermore, straw residues from food crops are used to produce ethanol [82]. 7.4.3 CO 2 Emissions TTW as well as WTT emissions are important to research for biofuelled ICE vehicles. The first emissions from producing biofuels are land use changes, followed by resource production, storage, transport of resources and the biofuel itself, processing and conversion. The other emissions (TTW) are from the combustion in an improved IC engine (chapter 3). Especially the WTT emissions depend on the production process, resource use and the location of production. For this reason, the ranges of the WTT emissions vary. To give an indication, United Nations Environment Programme [10] collected life cycle data from biofuel production to show this variation between resource uses. In this study, 800 comparable LCA s of biofuels are combined and these results are shown in figure 7.2. In this figure, the percentages of GHG savings or costs are shown compared to that of conventional fossil fuel use (0% line). For example, producing bio-ethanol from sugar beets can save emissions between 35 and 65% compared to conventional fossil fuel. However, biofuels can also emit more emissions with for example the use of palm oil as a resource for the production (-110% up to -2070%). 43

Figure 7.2: Emission saving compared to fossil fuel use (conventional gasoline or diesel) [10] The numbers in figure 7.2 vary between the used resources (rapeseed, palm oil et cetera). Another important fact is the production location of biofuels. For example, rapeseed biodiesel produced in the Ukraine has emissions of 59 gco 2 /MJ, while in France the emissions are only 46 gco 2 /MJ. When these results are compared to the use and production of conventional diesel, the savings are respectively 31% or 47% [10]. This variation between savings can be explained by the use of different production methods, fertilizer use and transport of resources/fuels in each country. Because of the large variation between emissions, the average CO 2 values reported by the UNEP [10] are used in further calculations. 7.5 Scenario s As described in figure 7.2, life cycle emissions vary between the used resources. In the following scenarios wood, agriculture and forestry residues (together) represent 2 nd generation biodiesel. Straw residues are used to produce 2 nd generation bio-ethanol. Furthermore, sugarcane, wheat and maize are used for producing 1 st generation bio-ethanol and rapeseed, soybeans and palm oil for producing 1 st generation biodiesel. The results are shown in graph 7.2. 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Wheat (average) Sugarcane (average) Maize (Iowa) Rapeseed (France) Soybean (Brazil) Palm oil (Indonesia) Wood, ag, forestry residues (average) Straw residues (average) 50% CO2 Reduction 1990 80% CO2 Reduction 1990 Potential ICE Graph 7.2: Biofuel scenarios of different resources. Note: Assumed is that biofuelled vehicles are improved as discussed in chapter 3. (The attached table of graph 7.2 is given in Appendix E1). 44

The Potential ICE scenario is the result of improving ICE vehicles as researched in chapter 3. Adding this improvement to the use of biofuels, the total CO 2 emissions will decrease even further. The use of soybeans results in the least reductions, because of the high emissions during the production of soybeans. Petrochemicals that are used in fertilizers account for more than 50% of these emissions. The rest of the emissions represent the processing of soybeans to oil and the esterification. The transportation of resources accounts for only a small part of the total emissions. The rest of the resources such as rapeseed, wheat and maize are dealing with the same emission problems as soybeans, but require fewer fertilizers. Only sugarcane, as a first generation biofuel, can decrease the total CO 2 enormously in such a way that it can come close to the 80% reduction goal. Second-generation biofuels from wood, agriculture and forestry residues can actually achieve the 80% reduction goal. Also, this is possible with biofuel derived from straw residues. These resources have less life cycle emissions because they are residues and require no fertilizers et cetera. 45

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CHAPTER 8. RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SOURCES The electricity demand increases when society uses electric vehicles or needs electricity to produce hydrogen. In the previous chapters it was concluded that renewable electricity is needed to reach the CO 2 reduction goal of 80% or even the 50% goal. In this chapter, the potential of renewable electricity generation is discussed. Furthermore, the total electricity demand for each alternative is discussed. 8.1 Potential of renewable electricity Wind During the last years, installed wind power has had an annual growth rate of 34%. Global installed wind power is currently estimated at around 194 GW [83]. This is only a fraction of the current electricity demand, but the potential of wind power is large. X. Lu et al. [84] argued that this potential would be 40 times more than the current electricity demand and 5 times more than the entire worldwide energy demand. These results are in line with the calculations of C.L Archer et al. [85] with an onshore potential of 72 TW. Offshore wind potential is estimated at 39 TW according to C.B. Capps et al. [86]. Therefore, the total worldwide potential would be around 110 TW. The area that is required per MW installed wind power is currently established at 8 MW/km 2 [87]. ECOFYS [88] estimated that this density would increase with 20% in the coming decades to about 10 MW/km 2. Furthermore, the highest potential for wind energy is in North America and in Europe. The most optimal location for all mentioned renewable energy sources is shown in figure 8.1. Note: Wind capacity factor for onshore electricity generation is assumed to be 0.22 and for offshore 0.35 Solar photovoltaic The current amount of installed photovoltaic (PV) solar power is estimated at around 40 GW [89]. M. Hoogwijk [90] researched the worldwide PV potential and argued that this potential depends on the suitability of the used area and the technical efficiency of solar cells. The worldwide suitable area for centralized PV solar power is 2.27 million km 2 (roughly 1.7% of world s total onshore area). The technical efficiency of PV s depends on three factors. First, the efficiency of the solar cells itself. This is assumed to be 14%. Second, the decrease of efficiency due to high temperatures, which is estimated at 5%, but this only, applies to tropical areas. Third, configuration issues, such as transmission/conversion losses, shade on other cells, et cetera. The overall efficiency for central and decentralized configuration is established at 10.5%. Total worldwide PV centralized potential would therefore be 366 PWh per year and decentralized 6 PWh. Concentrated solar power 740 MW of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants are currently installed [91]. These plants turn thermal heat (energy of the sun) into electricity, with the use of a steam turbine. Because of the high sun irradiance requirements, this type of electricity generation is most efficient in Africa and in the Middle East. The total electricity potential is estimated at 180 PWh per year [90]. Hydro Hydropower is derived from moving water. Current worldwide installed hydropower is estimated at 2.6 PWh [91]. The estimated potential of hydropower varies between studies. In common literature, the worldwide potential is estimated at 50 EJ/year [92], which is equal to around 14 PWh/yr. In the last IPPC report [93], the estimated potential was limited to 7 PWh/yr. Bioenergy for making electricity Current electricity production from biomass has a capacity of 48 GW [94]. As mentioned in the previous biofuel ICE chapter, biomass potential varies between 33 EJ to 1500 EJ per year. Electricity can be produced with a Biomass-Based Integrated Gasification Combined-Cycle (BIGCC) power plant. Assumed is an efficiency of 56% by the year 2050 [90]. Therefore, the total potential of electricity production from biomass varies between 4.5 and 206 PWh/yr. 47

Figure 8.1: Optimal locations for renewable energy [95] Table 8.1: Potential summary of renewable energy Resource Potential (PWh/yr) Wind Onshore 139 PWh Wind Offshore 119 PWh Solar (PV) Centralized 366 PWh Decentralized 6 PWh Solar (CSP) 180 PWh Hydro 7-14 PWh Biomass Minimum 4.5 PWh Maximum 206 PWh Total 1027.5-1034.5 PWh Total electricity production in 2008 was 20.26 PWh [96]. In table 8.1, the most important technical potentials of renewable sources are summarised. 8.2 Electricity demand vehicles The demand for electricity in 2050 varies for each vehicle scenario. In this paragraph, three BEV scenarios are mentioned: vehicles with a range of 100, 400 and 800 km. Furthermore, it is assumed that BE vehicles will use the expected state of technology in 2050 (higher energy density, mass reduction et cetera). In graph 8.1, the total electricity demand is shown in PWh/yr. The difference between the 100 and 400 km range scenario in energy demand is only 9%. On the other hand, when the 100 km scenario is compared to the 800 km scenario, the difference is 46%. This can be explained by the increasing battery mass. As a reference case, a BE vehicle with a range of 800 km with current technology is added. In this scenario, the demand for electricity is 65% higher than the 800 km with expected state of technology (2011 BEV-800 versus 2050 BEV-800). The demand for electricity is even higher for FCE electrolysis vehicles. In this scenario, at least 14 PWh per year is required to produce enough liquid hydrogen for all vehicles in 2050. In conclusion, BE vehicle required the least amount of electricity but the demand is still relatively high. The electricity demand for PHE vehicles is less than the demand for BE vehicles because of two reasons. First, PHE vehicles use a smaller battery which will have no significant effect on the vehicle mass. Second, these vehicles have two powertrains, more than 82% is covered by the EV powertrain (figure 5.2). 18% is covered by an ICE powertrain, which is fuelled by conventional fossil fuels. Furthermore, none of the electricity demands exceed the total technical potentials of renewable electricity sources (table 8.1). 48

Total electricity demand (PWh/yr ) Electricity demand per vehcile (kwh/yr) 16 8000 14 7000 12 6000 10 5000 8 4000 6 3000 4 2000 2 1000 0 2050: BEV 100km 2050: BEV 400km 2050: BEV 800km 2011: BEV 800km PHEV-16 PHEV-48 FCEV (electrolysis) FCEV (HTE) 0 Graph 8.1: Total electricity demand in 2050 for selected alternatives (PWh/yr) and demand per vehicle (kwh/yr). Note: FCEV (HTE) cannot be covered by renewable energy sources such as solar, wind etc. This is only possible in new nuclear power plants. On the right axis of graph 8.1, the electricity demand per vehicle is indicated in kwh/yr. What will this mean when this is translated into an individual perspective? In other words, is a decentralisation of renewable electricity production (photovoltaic and wind) possible to generate enough electricity to fuel a specific vehicle? Photovoltaic The world s annual average solar irradiance is 156.2 W/m 2 [92]. It is assumed that PV s has an overall efficiency of 10.5%. Therefore, the total annual production of electricity of one square metre PV would be around 144 kwh. Applying this for the FCEV electrolysis scenario (worst case scenario from an electricity demand point of view) means that a total of 49.4 m 2 PV solar cells per vehicle has to be installed. This means a total area of 3 times the Netherlands that is covered by PV s to supply the total demand for electricity. However, when this is applied for the BEV-100 vehicles, this is equal to an average surface of 18.3 m 2. Both are within the potentials of renewable electricity sources but large investments have to be made. Wind Windmills exist in different sizes. In this report, (onshore) windmill sizes between 1.5 MW and 7.5 MW are assumed. For example, for the FCEV electrolysis scenario this means that almost 3 million 2.5 MW windmills have to be installed to cover the vehicle electricity demand in 2050. On average, 680 FCE vehicles can be covered by one 2.5 MW windmill. On the other hand, only 360.000 7.5 MW have to be installed for the BEV-100 scenario and more than 5500 BEV-100 vehicles can be covered by one 2.5 MW windmill. With the mentioned energy density of windmills (10 MW/km 2 ), the total onshore area that is required for windmills is between 156.000 and 738.000 km 2 (in the worst case scenario, this means an area large then France). A detailed table of the required windmills for each scenario and required onshore areas is reported in Appendix F1. In conclusion, all mentioned scenarios in graph 8.1 could become CO 2 sustainable in 2050 by implementing renewable electricity sources. The best option is to choose for electric vehicles because of their limited demand for electricity compared to, for example, FCE vehicles. 49

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CHAPTER 9. SCENARIOS COMPARISON In this chapter CO 2 fore- and backcasting scenarios are discussed. Electricity is required in most of the discussed scenarios. The electricity generation scenarios, mentioned in paragraph 4.4, are used in the forecasting scenario. Besides electricity, lithium resources will also be discussed. 9.1 Forecasting scenarios Forecasting scenarios show the future path based on analyses of current trends. In this paragraph, the most interesting and relevant scenarios are compared. The scenarios are divided into two categories, business-as-usual and estimated technology and electricity generation. The first category represents what will happen when society switches to an alternative vehicle technology with the current state of technology, efficiencies and electricity production. The other category discusses the currently estimated state of technology by the year 2050 (linear in time till 2050). Business-as-usual The purpose of these BAU scenarios is to research whether it is beneficial to implement these new types of vehicles right now or not. The discussed BAU scenarios are shown below. Also detailed descriptions of these are discussed in Appendix G1. Internal combusting engine vehicle ICE BAU BEV-200 & 400 BAU PHEV-48 BAU FCEV electrolysis & reforming BAU Biofuel ICE vehicles BAU (first generation biofuels) Biofuel PHEV-48 BAU Estimated technology and electricity generation Analysing current trends and the expected state of technology, efficiencies and electricity production could answer the question if there is a sustainable solution for private passenger vehicles in 2050. The discussed scenarios are: ICE improved Internal combustion vehicles can be improved to decrease the fuel consumption and therefore decrease the total CO 2 emissions. General improvement measures such as the use of LRRT tyres, mass reduction and eco-driving, can achieve large savings in fuel consumption. Besides these, engine improvements can decrease the fuel consumption even further. Examples are direct injection in gasoline vehicles and heat recovery in diesel vehicles. All measures that are discussed in chapter 3 will be implemented in this scenario. BEV-200 & 400 IEA, PHEV-48 IEA In these scenarios, the electricity to charge the batteries for BE or PHE vehicles is generated according to the IEA electricity generation scenario. Furthermore, all the vehicles are improved (where possible) by the measures that are discussed in chapter 3. The rest of the scenario is equal to that of business-asusual variant mentioned above. FCEV electrolysis IEA, reforming CCS and gasification CCS In the reforming scenario, 90% of the CO 2 emitted during the production of liquid hydrogen is captured. This would result in lower real emitted CO 2 emissions. The rest of the emissions have to be stored. The IEA electricity scenario is used to supply the required electricity for the hydrogen production and liquefying process. Furthermore, all the vehicles are improved (where possible) by measures that are discussed in chapter 3. Biofuel ICE vehicles 2050 (second generation biofuels) Second-generation biofuel resources are mainly residues or non-food crops. This would result in a biofuel production that does not directly compete with the world s food supply. In this scenario, wood residues for biodiesel production and straw residues for bio-ethanol are discussed. Furthermore, all the vehicles are improved (where possible) by measures that are discussed in chapter 3. 51

Biofuel PHEV-48 IEA Second-generation biofuels are used in an improved ICE powertrain of a PHE vehicle. The electric powertrain has a range of 48 kilometres while the electricity is produced according to the IEA scenario. Furthermore, all the vehicles are improved (where possible) by measures that are discussed in chapter 3. In Appendix G2, a graph of all above-mentioned scenarios is shown. 52

Total # HTE Nuclear PP (1000MW) Total # Nuclear PP (1000MW) Total km 2 windmills M 2 solar PV per vehicle 80% reduction goal 50% reduction goal CO2 1990 (%) CO2 2050 (Mton) avg. WTT (gco2/km) Electricity demand 2050 (TWh) Biofuel demand 2050 (EJ) Platinum demand 2011-2050 (kton) * Lithium demand 2011-2050 (Mton) * Energy demand fossil fuel (EJ) 2050 Fossil fuel exhausted (year) Energy use Scenario Table 9.1: Summary of scenarios Resources & Energy use CO2 (Renewable) Power source implementation ICE BAU Oil 2041 85.1 277 7437 216.8 No No ICE Improved Oil 2053 40.3 119 2921 24.4 No No BEV-200 BAU Electricity 9.88 (30.4%) 5557 104 2130-9.3 No No 19.3 288 822 BEV-200 IEA Electricity 9.88 (30.4%) 4475 20,2 495-78.9 Yes Almost 15.5 232 662 BEV-400 BAU Electricity 23.4 (72%) 6586 124 3023 28.7 No No 22.9 342 974 BEV-400 IEA Electricity 23.4 (72%) 4737 24 586-75.0 Yes Almost 16.4 246 701 PHEV-48 BAU Oil/Electricity 2060 2.22 (6.8%) 3525 101,6 2482 5.7 No No 12.2 183 521 PHEV-48 IEA Oil/Electricity 2061 2.22 (6.8%) 3525 37,7 920-60.8 Yes No 12.2 183 521 PHEV-48 Biofuel BAU Biofuels/Electricity 2.22 (6.8%) 43.3 (10.8% **) 3525 84 2052-12.6 No No 12.2 183 521 PHEV-48 Biofuel 2050 Biofuels/Electricity 2.22 (6.8%) 20.7 (±100% ***) 3525 19,1 468-80.1 Yes Yes 12.2 183 521 FCEV Electrolysis BAU Electricity 14.9-39.7 (18.6-49.6%) 14239 267 6536 178.4 No No 49.4 739 2106 1307 FCEV Electrolysis IEA Electricity 14.9-39.7 (18.6-49.6%) 14239 51,9 1267-46.0 Almost No 49.4 739 2106 1307 FCEV Reforming BAU Methane/Electricity N/A 41.8 14.9-39.7 (18.6-49.6%) 2990 126 3083 31.3 No No 10.4 155 442 FCEV Reforming CCS Methane/Electricity N/A 41.8 14.9-39.7 (18.6-49.6%) 2990 44 1075-54.2 Yes No 10.4 155 442 FCEV Gasification CCS Coal/Electricity N/A 59.9 14.9-39.7 (18.6-49.6%) 2990 56 1368-41.7 No No 10.4 155 442 Biofuel ICE BAU Biofuel ICE 2050 Biofuel 1st Generation Biofuel 2nd Generation 240 (60% **) 147 3591 53.0 No No 115 (±500% ***) 20,7 506-78.4 Yes Almost Not sustainable and/or technically not possible Optimal solution Technically possible but not sustainable Technically possible and sustainable Technically possible Technically possible but little sustainable * % of potential is shown between brackets ** % of potential by Hoogwijk et al 2005 [78] *** % potential by [73,83,84] 53

Bottlenecks In table 9.1, a summary of all mentioned scenarios is shown. The largest and most important bottlenecks are discussed for each alternative. Internal combustion engine vehicles - Use of fossil fuels, which will be depleted - Major vehicle improvements are required to decrease the total CO 2 emissions in 2050 and even then the emissions will still be relatively high and not within reach of the two CO 2 reduction goals. The energy demand for ICE vehicles is high because of the relatively overall low energy efficiency of combustion engines. This results in high CO 2 emissions. Improving these vehicles can decrease the energy demand and emissions by more than 50%. However, this is not enough to reach a sustainable CO 2 reduction goal. The next bottleneck is the use of fossil fuel, which will exhaust in the coming decades. Improving vehicles can extent this period by maybe ten years. Battery electric vehicles - The lithium reserves are too little for BE vehicles above vehicle range of 400-500 km. The estimated progress in battery density (130 to 260 Wh/kg) is not enough to decrease the demand in such a situation that they can compete with standard vehicle ranges (>800 km) - Relatively low energy density of current and expected batteries in 2050. - Increased vehicle mass (due to low energy densities of batteries) results in a higher vehicle energy demand and therefore higher CO 2 emissions. - Large-scale implementation and investments in renewable electricity sources, like the IEA electricity scenario, is required to decrease CO 2 emissions. Without implementing renewable energy sources, BE vehicles cannot become sustainable from a CO 2 point of view. - Lithium production rates have to increase by a factor 9 (BEV-200) or by a factor 20 (BEV-400). Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles - The ICE powertrain is the bottleneck for the total CO 2 emissions of a PHE vehicle. The only solution to become sustainable is to use 2 nd generation biofuels (in combination with the IEA electricity mix). - Potential of 2 nd generation biofuels is not well known but with current estimation (for 2050) this potential is large enough to cover the (limited) biofuel demand of PHE vehicles. - Large-scale implementation and investments in renewable energy sources, like the IEA electricity scenario is required to decrease CO 2 emissions. Without implementing renewable electricity sources, PHE vehicles cannot become sustainable from a CO 2 point of view. Fuel cell electric vehicles - Using fossil fuel for hydrogen production (methane reforming and coal gasification) results in high CO 2 emissions and in resource depletion, which is not sustainable. - Large-scale implementation and investments in renewable energy sources, like the IEA electricity scenario is required to decrease CO 2 emissions. Without implementing enough renewable electricity sources, FCE (electrolysis) vehicles cannot become sustainable from a CO 2 point of view. - High energy requirements to produce sustainable liquid hydrogen (electrolysis). - Low overall efficiency. Hydrogen has to be produced, transported and converted back into electricity in the vehicle itself by using a fuel cell. This has an overall efficiency of maximal 30%. - Platinum production rate has to increase by a factor 2-4 (calculation based on platinum demand and current production rates [42]). 54

100% Biofuel internal combustion vehicles. - 1 st generation biofuel ICE vehicles cannot be sustainable because of relatively high CO 2 emissions during the production phase (fertilizers, pesticides, transport, converting et cetera). - 2 nd generation biofuel ICE vehicles cannot be sustainable from a resource point of view. The demand is too large to be supplied in 2050 with the estimated potentials and conversion efficiencies. 9.2 Backcasting Backcasting is defined as: A method in which the future desired conditions are envisioned and steps are then defined to attain those conditions, rather than taking steps that are merely a continuation of present methods extrapolated into the future [97]. In this paragraph, alternative vehicle techniques are improved in such a way that they can reach one or both CO 2 reduction goals. Next to the CO 2 reduction goals, also the lithium supply and demand is discussed to research what measures are needed for a sustainable resource use. 9.2.1 CO 2 emissions goals Internal combustion engine vehicles In the forecasting scenarios, the improved ICE vehicles could not reach the 80% or even the 50% reduction goal. The starting point, to research the required measures needed to reach one of the goals, is an improved ICE vehicle as described in the forecasting scenarios. The first variable that could be changed is the fuel-consumption, which is directly related to the CO 2 emissions per driven kilometres. And the second variable is weight reduction by using other materials. Both measures have to be combined because these are directly related with each other. Measures Reaching the 50% reduction goal, fuel consumption of diesel vehicles has to decrease to 2.30 l/100km and for gasoline vehicles to 2.46 l/100km. For the 80% reduction goal, fuel consumption has to decrease to 0.92 l/100km for diesel and 0.98 for gasoline vehicles. By reducing the weight of a vehicle, the energy demand will decrease. Using the measures that are reported in chapter 3 in combination with a theoretical vehicle mass of 250-300 kg is enough to reach an 80% reduction goal. A vehicle mass of 480-530kg can achieve in theory the 50% reduction goal. This is in line with a recent published VW ICE concept vehicle with a mass of 300 kg, which has an average fuel consumption of 1.0 l/100km [98]. However, H. Wallentowitz [99] argued that a technically safe vehicle weight is minimal 500 kg. Maybe for this safety reason, the VW 1L vehicle has never been in production. BE vehicles As was already concluded in the forecasting scenarios (estimated technology and electricity generation), BEV-200 could reach both CO 2 reduction goals. Three variables could be changed to let the BE vehicle, with a higher range than 200 km, reach the 80% reduction goal. The first variable is the battery energy density. When this density increases, the battery mass decreases and the vehicle will consume less energy (lower CO 2 emissions). The second variable is to lower the CO 2 intensity of electricity generation. The last variable is to decrease the energy demand of electric vehicles itself. The starting point is an improved BE vehicle with vehicle measures that are discussed in chapter 3. The electricity is generated according to the IEA scenario. Measures - Option 1: In the IEA 2050 forecasting scenarios it is assumed that electricity is generated by an intensity of 89 gco 2 /kwh. Improving this intensity would result in lower emissions for BE vehicles. This intensity has to be 78.8 gco 2 /kwh to let BEV-400 reach the 80% reduction goal. This means that, instead of 82%, at least 86% of all the generated electricity has to be generated from renewable electricity sources. - Option 2: For a BEV-400 it is possible to reach the 80% reduction goal by reducing the vehicle mass with 166 kg. When the battery energy density increases by a factor 2 (520 Wh/kg), the vehicle has the same weight as a former BEV-200. This would result in a lower energy demand and therefore lower CO 2 emissions. 55

- Option 3: Another variable that could be improved is the efficiency of a BE vehicle itself. For example, improving charging efficiencies or electric motor efficiencies. Furthermore, an improvement in the drag coefficient is an option. When the charging and motor efficiencies are improved to at least 98% in combination with a vehicle drag coefficient of about 0.180, it is also possible to reach the 80% reduction goal for a BEV-400. PHEV-48 IEA Plug-in hybrid vehicles can reach the 50% reduction goal but are not able to reach the 80% goal. The ICE powertrain is powered by conventional fossil fuel and is responsible for most of the CO 2 emissions. The electric powertrain is less pollutant because it is charged according to the IEA electricity scenario, which has a relatively low CO 2 intensity. The variables that could change are the fuel consumption of the ICE powertrain or the CO 2 intensity of electricity production for the electric powertrain. Battery density improvements have no significant effect on the vehicle mass because of the relative small battery that is installed. For this reason this will not be discussed as an improvement option. Measures - Option 1: The ICE powertrain can be improved in the same way as the internal combustion engine vehicle backcasting scenario. The emissions from the ICE powertrain have to decrease to at least 20.7 gco 2 /km to reach the 80% reduction goal. Fuel consumption has to decrease to 0.99 L/100km for diesel and 1.06 for gasoline vehicles. Furthermore, a reduction in the drag coefficient of at least 25% to about 0.180-0.190 is required. - Option 2: Like in the BEV backcasting scenario, the CO 2 intensity of electricity production can be improved. The emissions for generating one kwh have to decrease to at least -4.3 gco 2. In other words, the ICE powertrain is the bottleneck in PHE vehicle. This powertrain has to be improved before a PHEV-48 can achieve the 80% reduction goal. FCEV electrolysis IEA (without the use of HTE) A fuel cell electric vehicle uses hydrogen that is produced by the process of electrolysis. The electricity that is required is generated according to the IEA electricity scenario. However, this electricity scenario is not clean enough to reach one of the reduction goals. The first improvement option could be to reduce the CO 2 intensity of electricity generation even further than is estimated by the IEA in 2050. In the last decades, the electrolysis and liquefying process are already improved to almost the theoretical maximum efficiency [62]. Therefore the only reasonable option is to improve the fuel cell efficiency. The current maximum efficiency of a PEM fuel cell is 55% but what kind of efficiency is required to reach the CO 2 reduction goals? Also in this scenario, calculations are based on an improved FCE vehicle that is mentioned in previous forecasting scenario (estimated technology and electricity generation). Measures - Option 1: In the IEA 2050 forecasting scenarios it is assumed that electricity is generated by an emission intensity of 89 gco 2 /kwh. Improving this intensity would result in lower emissions. This intensity has to be 71.4 gco 2 /kwh (90% of the generated electricity has to be generated from renewable electricity sources) to let FCE vehicles reach the 50% reduction goal and 32.9 gco 2 /kwh for the 80% reduction goal. Instead of 82%, at least 94% of all the generated electricity has to be generated from renewable electricity sources. - Option 2: Current maximum fuel cell (PEM) efficiency, to convert hydrogen into electricity, is 55%. To achieve the 50% reduction goal, this efficiency has to be improved to at least 59%. The 80% reduction goal cannot be achieved by increasing the fuel cell efficiency. The theoretical efficiency of converting hydrogen into electricity by using a fuel cell is not enough to reach this goal. Reaching the 80% reduction goal, the CO 2 intensity of electricity production has to be improved even further than the IEA has estimated in 2050. 56

9.2.2 Lithium reserves The estimated lithium reserves (12.5 Mton) cannot cover the demand for BEV-400 vehicles. Even with the expected state of technology in 2050, the demand is still higher than the reserves. In the following backcasting scenario, the required battery density to let the available lithium reserves be enough to cover the demand for BEV-400 vehicles is researched. BEV-600 and 800 vehicles exceeded both reserves and reserves bases (32.5 Mton). These two types are also researched to investigate the required energy density. Table 9.1: Required battery energy density for BEV-400, 600 and 800 vehicles in Wh/kg. Required density (Wh/kg) to cover Reserves (12.5 Mton) Required density (Wh/kg) to cover Reserve bases (32.5 Mton) BEV-400 410 - BEV-600 770 300 BEV-800 1300 510 As discussed in chapter 4, the theoretical energy density of present day lithium batteries is around 450 Wh/kg. Currently this is maximal 130 Wh/kg. Decrease the lithium demand in such a way that it can be covered by the reserves; BEV-400 requires a density of 410 Wh/kg. Theoretical this is possible with lithium batteries. However, vehicles with a larger range than 400-500 kilometres have to rely on another battery technology that has a higher energy density. The reserve bases are large enough to require lower battery energy densities for BEV-600 and 800 vehicles. These reserves already cover the BEV-400 lithium demand. 57

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CHAPTER 10. CONCLUSIONS AND DISCUSSION In this chapter an overall conclusion is drawn on the sustainability of the private vehicle transport sector with the use of one single vehicle technique by the year 2050. Furthermore, general assumptions of this research are discussed that could influence this conclusion. After that, the end conclusion is drawn including the mentioned discussion points. 10.1 Conclusion Currently the world population is growing, together with the amount of vehicles per capita. Highly populated regions such as China and India will increase their vehicles per capita most rapidly. The total estimated amount of vehicles by 2050 is around 2 billion with an average of 215 vehicles per 1000 people. When nothing (structural) changes in the private vehicle transport sector, global vehicle kilometers will increase with a factor 2.3. However, total CO 2 emission will only increase with a factor 2.1 to 7400 Mton because of expected fuel consumption improvements in developing countries. Total oil consumption would increase to 85.1 EJ/yr and is expected to be exhausted in 2041 when other sectors stabilize their oil demand. In this BAU scenario, the private vehicle transport system is not sustainable. A worldwide sustainable CO 2 level would be a reduction of 80% to that of 1990 levels in the year 2050. The transport sector is increasing rapidly and therefore this reduction goal is not realistic. The EU goal for the entire transport sector is set on reductions between 54-67% (because of the increase of vehicles). The worldwide transport sector is growing faster than that of the EU and therefore a worldwide sustainable reduction goal of 50% (1175 Mton) is assumed to be realistic for the private transport sector. This goal cannot be reached by any scenario which is applied to current state of technology, electricity generation et cetera. In other words, implementing a discussed alternative vehicle techniques will give no sustainable CO 2 situation right now, mainly because of the high CO 2 intensity of the current electricity mix. Improving ICE vehicles would also not result in an overall reduction of 50% because the expected potential of these engine vehicles is not large enough. The CO 2 intensity of the electricity generation is expected to decrease to 89 gco 2 /kwh in 2050 due to the implementation of renewable electricity sources (IEA scenarios, implementing 82% renewable electricity sources in the electricity mix). When this happens, almost all of the discussed alternatives that required electricity (FCEV, BEV, PHEV) could reach a sustainable CO 2 situation in 2050. Only for FCE vehicles this is not possible because of the overall low efficiency (production, transport and fuel cell efficiency), which results in a large demand for electricity. In this case, at least 90% of the generated electricity has to be produced by renewable electricity sources or from nuclear power plants (with or without HTE) to reach a sustainable CO 2 situation. Electric vehicles, with the use of lithium batteries (LFP-G) are the best and easiest choice to decrease CO 2 emission and to become sustainable in 2050, because of the overall high efficiencies of electric vehicles. Unfortunately, the available lithium reserves are not large enough to cover the accumulated demand for electric vehicle batteries (>400-500 km). A solution is a BE vehicle with a small battery and an ICE engine. When the batteries are exhausted, the vehicle can rely on an efficient combustion engine to extent the range up to 800 km. These vehicles have no problem with the accumulated demand for lithium. However, biofuels are needed for the combustion engine instead of fossil fuels to become sustainable. The demand for biofuels in 2050 can be covered by the potential of biofuels because a PHEV-48 vehicle will only rely for 18% of all annually travelled distances on the internal combustion engine. PHE vehicles are the best and easiest choice for a sustainable private transport sector in 2050, because of the limited demand for lithium, biofuels and renewable electricity sources. Furthermore, PHE vehicles require the least amount of adoptions for the current infrastructure. This because PHE vehicles doe have shorter charging times than full BE vehicles. However, a full electric vehicle is more energy efficient than a PHE vehicle but the available lithium reserves are not large enough to 59

produce vehicles with a vehicle range of more than 400-500 km. Therefore the most realistic solution is to use a PHE vehicle in combination with biofuels. 10.2 Discussion In this paragraph the most important assumption points are discussed. These points are not mentioned in this research thus far and could influence the results and the conclusion of this research. Platinum production The yearly platinum production in 2009 was about 19 kton, in 2010 this increased to 25 kton. If the demand in 2050 will increase to a few mega tonnes per year, the production has to increase. In this research this increase is assumed to be possible. Further research has to indicate if this is a realistic approach. Furthermore, the emissions of the production of platinum are neglected and therefore not included in the emissions of a FCE vehicle. Renewable energy use In chapter 8 the required amount of windmills and solar panels are researched for selected scenarios. The resource use for these renewable energy power sources is not researched and may therefore be not realistic. Possible bottlenecks could be steel and copper in windmills and other rare elements in the production of solar cells (for example Ce, Nd, Lu, Tb [100]). Charging times In table 4.1, the charging times of current electric and PHE vehicles are shown. The charging time of electric vehicles depends on the charging methods and the battery size. An indication, houses in OECD Europe have a grid voltage of 230 V. Normal fuses are 16 A. Charging a 35 kwh with a charging efficiency of 95% takes at least 10 hours (35 kwh/ (230 V*16 A*0.95)). When larger batteries are installed, longer charging times are required or a new electricity infrastructure in houses is required (for example 380 V and 32 A). Also charging times of PHE vehicles are not taken into account. Assumed is that vehicles can be charged at work and are fully charged when people are going home. On the other hand, for other purposes such as shopping and sporting, it is assumed that vehicles are not being charged at their destination. This is because of the long charging times compared to the time that are people shopping or at the gym. The social impact of charging batteries is also not taken into account in this research. Lithium production rates and reserves The yearly lithium production in 2011 was about 25 kton. If the demand in 2050 will increase to a few mega tonnes per year, the production has to increase. In this research this increase is assumed to be possible. Further research has to determine if this is realistic. Furthermore, the emissions of the production of lithium are neglected and therefore not included in the emissions of a BE or PHE vehicles. The lithium reserves that are estimated by the USGS in 2011 are 13 Mton and for reserves base 33 Mton. However, the same publication by the USGS in 2010 reported a significantly lower amount of 9.9 Mton for the reserves and 23 Mton for the reserve bases. In 2009 this amount was even lower than in 2010 with respectively 4 Mton and 13 Mton (in 1996 it was respectively 2 Mton and 8.5 Mton). In other words, within three years, the reported reserve bases were more than doubled. All reported amount of reserves are shown in graph 10.1 and are based on all publication of the USGS between 1996 (first publication) until 2011. Furthermore, in the future it is maybe technically and economically possible to extract lithium from seawater. In this case, the reserves will increase with a factor of 100 or even a factor of 1000 [101]. 60

Lithium (Mt) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1996 2001 2006 2011 Graph 10.1: Reported lithium Reserve Bases in Mton from 1996-2011 [102] Nuclear, gas-fired or coal-fired power plants emissions In this research, it is assumed that power plants will emit no CO 2 during the generation of electricity. The entire LCA CO 2 emissions of these plants are also neglected. Nuclear power plants emit significantly lower amount of CO 2 than for example coal fired power plants, but the emissions can nevertheless perhaps not be neglected. Expected growth of amount of vehicles in 2050. In this research assumed is that the total amount of vehicle would increase by a factor 2.3 up to 2 million in 2050. Calculations are on a basis of expected vehicle ownerships, vehicle sales and a medium population growth. However, the total amount of vehicles is estimation and could be more or less in 2050. Infrastructure Not only infrastructure to charge a battery is needed in 2050, but also hydrogen or biofuel infrastructure. In this report it is assumed that this will pose no (technical) problems from a resource and social point view. Mix of possibilities For some scenarios, lithium or biofuel demands exceed their technical potential. A mixture of different types of alternative vehicle techniques around the world maybe solves these resource bottlenecks. However, the aim of this research was to examine if the private vehicle transport sector could be sustainable with only one single solution. Annual travelled distances It is assumed that the annually travelled distance is the same in emerging markets as in OECD countries. However, this is maybe not the case. Currently no data is available for the annually travelled distances that are expected in 2050 of emerging markets. 10.3 End conclusion BE vehicles are dealing with lithium resource problems. As mentioned in the discussion points, reserves can increase over time by exploring new lithium resources in the ground or by extraction from for example seawater. Therefore it is may be possible in the future to produce vehicle batteries with a range of more than 400-500 km. Electric vehicles are more energy efficient than all other mentioned alternatives in this research and are therefore also a sustainable solution for the private transport sector in 2050. Expected is that there will be 2 billion vehicles in 2050. However, when for example the medium projection for population growth is followed, the amount of vehicles would increase with about 25% or more. With a low population growth, the expected vehicles are less than 2 billion. However, this conclusion will not significantly affect the end conclusion of each alternative. For example, the accumulated lithium demand can change but the bottlenecks of BE vehicles still remains. 61

The end conclusion of this research is that FCE, PHE (biofuels) and BE vehicles can become sustainable by 2050, but large investments have to be made in cleaner electricity sources to make this possible. PHE vehicles are still the easiest option to implement at this moment. These vehicles could be a transition technology to shift to a full electric private passenger vehicles in 2050. Furthermore, when the society chooses for BE vehicles, the production rates of lithium have to increase. For PHE vehicles, the production of biofuels has to increase. 62

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APPENDIXES: Option for a sustainable passenger transport sector in 2050 Appendix A1 In this appendix the population growth in different regions is shown from 2010 till 2050. The results are shown in billion inhabitants. 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 OECD North America 446 466 486 504 521 537 553 568 584 OECD Europe 523 525 526 526 524 509 495 480 466 OECD Pacific 203 205 205 204 203 200 197 195 192 FSU 251 251 250 248 246 247 247 248 248 Eastern Europe 93 91 88 85 81 82 83 84 85 China 1363 1406 1442 1467 1481 1479 1477 1474 1472 Other Asia 1043 1119 1194 1265 1330 1401 1471 1541 1611 India 1164 1230 1291 1352 1409 1450 1490 1531 1572 Middle East 218 245 272 300 327 353 379 405 431 Latin America 477 506 534 560 584 603 622 641 660 Africa 997 1110 1231 1358 1489 1617 1745 1873 2001 Total 6778 7154 7518 7869 8196 8477 8759 9041 9322 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Africa Latin America Middle East India Other Asia China Eastern Europe FSU OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 69

Vehcile ownership per 1000 Appendix A2 This appendix shows the average vehicle ownership per 1000 inhabitants. 700 600 500 400 300 200 OECD North America OECD Europe OECD Pacific FSU Eastern Europe China Other Asia India Middle East Latin America Africa 100 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 OECD North America 635.8 643.8 651.4 658.9 666.6 674.3 682.1 690.0 697.8 OECD Europe 451.1 467.7 482.9 497.2 511.2 525.4 539.8 554.6 569.7 OECD Pacific 476.6 493.6 510.5 527.4 544.7 562.4 580.5 599.1 618.2 FSU 132.7 168.1 211.6 258.0 309.9 340.1 372.8 408.5 447.3 Eastern Europe 235.2 303.9 345.5 391.1 440.5 466.2 493.2 521.6 551.3 China 26.0 37.0 50.0 65.8 85.7 110.6 142.0 181.3 230.8 Other Asia 28.8 32.9 37.2 46.0 56.3 68.3 82.2 98.3 117.0 India 17.4 21.4 25.6 29.9 39.5 51.3 65.6 83.1 104.5 Middle East 47.5 51.3 56.9 62.8 68.1 73.6 79.3 85.2 91.3 Latin America 101.4 117.6 135.9 156.9 181.3 209.0 240.4 276.1 316.7 Africa 27.0 30.6 34.3 38.1 41.9 45.9 49.9 54.0 58.3 70

Appendix A3 In this appendix the total amount of vehicles in 2010 to 2050 in millions are shown. 2000 Africa Latin America 1500 Middle East India Other Asia 1000 China Eastern Europe FSU 500 OECD Pacific OECD Europe OECD North America 0 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 OECD North America 284 300 316 332 348 362 377 392 408 OECD Europe 236 245 254 261 268 267 267 266 265 OECD Pacific 97 101 105 108 111 113 115 117 119 FSU 33 42 53 64 76 84 92 101 111 Eastern Europe 22 28 30 33 36 38 41 44 47 China 35 52 72 97 127 164 210 267 340 Other Asia 30 37 44 58 75 96 121 151 188 India 20 26 33 40 56 74 98 127 164 Middle East 10 13 15 19 22 26 30 35 39 Latin America 48 59 73 88 106 126 150 177 209 Africa 27 34 42 52 62 74 87 101 117 Total 843 938 1038 1152 1286 1424 1587 1779 2007 71