Company report Industrials Equity China 995 HK Hold Target price (HKD) 7.00 Share price (HKD) 6.90 Upside/Downside (%) +1.4% Year to 12/14 a 12/15 e 12/16 e HSBC EPS (CNY) 0.51 0.56 0.58 PE (HSBC) 11.0 10.1 9.7 Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 5.3-6.8 44.1 Relative (%)* -0.8 3.1 39.3 * HSCEI 600012 CH Reduce Target price (CNY) 5.90 Share price (CNY) 13.02 Upside/Downside (%) -54.7% Year to 12/14 a 12/15 e 12/16 e PE (HSBC) 25.3 23.3 22.4 Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) 39.7 8.3 152.8 Relative (%)* 27.0 26.0 73.5 * CSI 300 Index Wei Sim* The HongKong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2996 6602 weisim@hsbc.com.hk Shubhi Bansal* Associate Bangalore View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report: The HongKong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it Anhui Expressway (995 HK/600012 CH) H: Hold/ A: Reduce: Vitals are steady Toll revenue up 5.4% y-o-y in Jul-Sep period vs. our 2H estimate of 3.9% y-o-y After negative growth in 2Q, revenue growth on Hening turned positive in 3Q Maintain Hold rating on H share with a TP of HKD7.0 and Reduce rating on A share with a TP of RMB5.9 Jul-Sep consolidated revenue is up 5.4% y-o-y, 1.6ppt ahead of our 2H15 estimate: Volume growth is tracking 6.3ppt ahead of our estimate, at 11.7% y-o-y. Volume growth across all the eight roads is tracking either in line or ahead of our estimates, as shown in the table below. Hening Expressway, which was dragging the growth down in 2Q15, turned positive in 3Q15. Being the single largest contributor to the company s revenue, its performance plays a significant role. We maintain our Hold rating on the H share with a TP of HKD7.0 (implied upside of 1.4%) and Reduce rating on the A share with a TP of RMB5.9 (implied downside of 54.7%). Our target prices are DCF based. Anhui Expressway volume and revenue growth vs. HSBC estimates Hening GaoJie XuanGuang LianHuo NingHuai NH205 Guangci XuanNing Total FY15e revenue contri 45.3% 23.0% 11.6% 10.6% 4.8% 2.3% 1.9% 0.6% 100.0% HTD vol YoY 3.4% 14.5% 11.2% 16.9% 13.0% 9.5% 13.0% 54.8% 11.7% HSBC 1H15 est 3.5% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 5.9% 11.1% 5.4% A vs. E -0.1% 8.7% 5.3% 11.0% 7.1% 3.6% 7.2% 43.7% 6.3% HTD rev YoY 1.3% 9.1% 7.0% 4.6% 3.5% 18.6% 8.2% 65.7% 5.4% HSBC 1H15 est 0.9% 5.9% 6.9% 6.1% 0.6% 2.7% 8.5% 16.7% 3.9% A vs. E 0.4% 3.3% 0.1% -1.5% 3.0% 15.9% -0.3% 49.0% 1.6% HTD ARPV YoY -2.0% -4.7% -3.7% -10.5% -8.4% 8.3% -4.2% 7.0% -5.7% HSBC 1H15 est -2.5% 0.0% 1.0% 0.3% -5.0% -3.0% 2.5% 5.0% -1.5% A vs. E 0.5% -4.7% -4.7% -10.7% -3.4% 11.3% -6.7% 2.0% -4.2% estimates, Company data YueXiu Transport Infra (1052 HK, HKD5.24, Buy, TP HKD8.2) remains our preferred pick in the China Expressways sector. RIC 0995.HK / 600012.SS Market cap (USDm) 2,829 Free Float 995 HK 30 % Market cap (HKDm) 21,926 Free Float 600012 CH 100 % Market cap (CNYm) 17,963 THIS CONTENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN THE PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA (THE "PRC") (EXCLUDING SPECIAL ADMINISTRATIVE REGIONS OF HONG KONG AND MACAO)
Financials & valuation Financial statements Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e Profit & loss summary (CNYm) Revenue 3,037 3,114 3,676 3,520 EBITDA 1,944 1,904 1,972 1,966 Depreciation & amortisation -628-630 -630-630 Operating profit/ebit 1,316 1,274 1,342 1,336 Net interest -173-57 -49-49 PBT 1,160 1,234 1,309 1,303 HSBC PBT 1,160 1,234 1,309 1,303 Taxation -301-286 -323-322 Net profit 852 926 965 960 HSBC net profit 852 926 965 960 Cash flow summary (CNYm) Cash flow from operations 651 1,194 874 880 Capex -773-751 -1,273-1,063 Cash flow from investment 828-533 -986-776 Dividends -365-381 -402-419 Change in net debt -1,364-523 449 261 FCF equity -444 163-705 -499 Balance sheet summary (CNYm) Intangible fixed assets 9,222 9,001 8,714 8,427 Tangible fixed assets 1,208 1,677 2,998 4,110 Current assets 756 1,151 700 438 Cash & others 463 809 361 100 Total assets 11,631 12,268 12,852 13,414 Operating liabilities 1,805 2,171 2,171 2,171 Gross debt 1,294 1,117 1,117 1,117 Net debt 831 308 757 1,018 Shareholders' funds 7,684 8,191 8,753 9,294 Invested capital 8,919 8,849 9,881 10,704 Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e Y-o-y % change Revenue -9.3 2.6 18.1-4.2 EBITDA 4.0-2.1 3.5-0.3 Operating profit 3.7-3.2 5.3-0.4 PBT 1.8 6.4 6.2-0.5 HSBC EPS 9.0 8.6 4.2-0.5 Ratios (%) Revenue/IC (x) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 ROIC 10.4 11.0 10.8 9.8 ROE 11.5 11.7 11.4 10.6 ROA 8.2 8.3 8.1 7.8 EBITDA margin 64.0 61.1 53.6 55.8 Operating profit margin 43.3 40.9 36.5 37.9 EBITDA/net interest (x) 11.3 33.5 40.6 40.5 Net debt/equity 9.7 3.4 7.9 10.1 Net debt/ebitda (x) 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 CF from operations/net debt 78.4 387.6 115.5 86.4 Per share data (CNY) EPS reported (diluted) 0.51 0.56 0.58 0.58 HSBC EPS (diluted) 0.51 0.56 0.58 0.58 DPS 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 Book value 4.63 4.94 5.28 5.60 Valuation data: 995 HK Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e EV/sales 6.0 5.7 5.0 5.3 EV/EBITDA 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.4 EV/IC 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 PE* 11.0 10.1 9.7 9.8 PB 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 FCF yield (%) -2.5 0.9-4.0-2.8 Dividend yield (%) 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.5 * Based on HSBC EPS (diluted) Valuation data: 600012 CH Year to 12/2014a 12/2015e 12/2016e 12/2017e EV/sales 6.0 5.7 5.0 5.3 EV/EBITDA 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.4 EV/IC 2.1 2.0 1.9 1.7 PE* 25.3 23.3 22.4 22.5 PB 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 FCF yield (%) -2.5 0.9-4.0-2.8 Dividend yield (%) 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 * Based on HSBC EPS (diluted) Price relative: 995 HK 10.60 9.60 8.60 7.60 6.60 5.60 4.60 3.60 2.60 2.60 2013 2014 2015 2016 Anhui Expressway Rel to HSCEI Price relative: 600012 CH 21.20 16.20 11.20 6.20 Note: Priced at close of 20 Oct 2015 10.60 9.60 8.60 7.60 6.60 5.60 4.60 3.60 21.20 16.20 11.20 6.20 1.20 1.20 2013 2014 2015 2016 Anhui Expressway A Rel to CSI 300 Index 2
Historical traffic volume and toll revenue and ARPV trends Anhui historical YoY traffic volume growth Vol YoY Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Hening 1.2% -1.1% -1.4% -0.4% 1.3% -4.5% -11.0% -8.4% -1.6% 0.9% 0.9% 22.1% 8.0% -2.1% -1.8% -0.1% 3.4% 7.0% GaoJie 25.0% 20.2% 17.4% 22.3% 32.4% 28.5% 20.7% -7.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 39.6% 11.5% 4.2% 10.4% 16.7% 13.1% 13.8% XuanGuang 6.4% 3.0% 0.7% 3.1% 10.5% 4.7% 2.4% 1.4% 6.4% -13.0% -13.0% 46.5% 7.3% 3.0% 10.3% 10.1% 11.7% 11.5% LianHuo 14.8% 11.8% 6.6% 10.8% 12.1% 1.9% 1.3% 5.3% 8.1% -7.5% -7.5% 28.7% 8.9% 4.0% 6.9% 8.6% 18.7% 23.7% NingHuai 15.1% 17.0% 10.1% 12.7% 7.5% 8.6% 7.7% 6.3% 11.9% 16.5% 16.5% 13.6% 7.3% 5.0% 8.5% 9.4% 19.4% 10.2% NH205-12.1% -0.7% -14.1% -12.0% -17.5% -16.8% -14.4% -15.4% -15.8% -1.7% -1.7% -7.3% 8.7% 3.7% 8.3% 8.1% 12.2% 8.2% Guangci 8.3% 0.9% -0.6% 2.6% 11.2% 5.2% 1.6% 0.9% 6.3% -13.1% -13.1% 52.3% 9.0% 5.2% 11.9% 12.1% 13.7% 13.2% XuanNing - - - - - 287.9% 184.5% 167.9% 154.7% 69.2% 69.2% 92.3% 83.4% 65.6% 65.6% 59.4% 57.0% 48.7% Total 8.9% 7.2% 3.4% 6.1% 8.1% 5.3% 2.1% 0.1% 5.3% -1.1% -1.1% 29.8% 9.4% 3.9% 7.9% 9.2% 13.7% 12.3% Source: Company data Anhui historical YoY toll revenue growth Rev YoY Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Hening -8.4% -7.1% -11.7% -11.0% -10.2% -14.7% -17.6% -14.3% -8.7% 2.6% 2.6% 7.9% 5.0% -5.4% -6.3% -3.8% 3.0% 4.9% GaoJie 43.8% 46.8% 41.3% 42.5% 56.6% 55.0% 38.1% -4.9% -7.5% 10.2% 10.2% 16.1% 8.7% 3.9% 4.0% 12.6% 7.6% 7.4% XuanGuang -3.8% 0.3% -2.8% -3.7% 1.9% -0.6% -1.7% -1.9% 1.7% -1.1% -1.1% 25.2% 3.5% 0.0% 3.7% 3.1% 8.6% 9.1% LianHuo 8.2% 18.4% 3.6% 3.5% 3.2% -4.6% 0.2% 5.5% 6.5% 5.4% 5.4% 9.6% 0.2% -9.6% -6.4% -2.8% 7.6% 9.1% NingHuai 18.1% 13.0% 6.5% 9.9% 5.3% 1.7% 1.2% 0.5% 1.6% 5.0% 5.0% 3.4% 1.2% -3.0% -2.2% -1.2% 8.9% 2.9% NH205-11.3% -7.8% -11.8% -14.2% -20.8% -18.8% -15.6% -16.9% -16.1% -4.1% -4.1% -15.7% 11.8% 11.5% 11.5% 13.9% 21.0% 20.8% Guangci -5.0% -5.6% -7.1% -4.3% 6.1% 2.2% -2.6% -1.6% 2.9% -1.4% -1.4% 32.4% 6.4% 3.2% 5.9% 5.1% 10.2% 9.3% XuanNing - - - - - 270.6% 186.5% 174.7% 212.2% 125.4% 125.4% 105.2% 100.0% 80.1% 76.1% 71.5% 68.4% 58.1% Total 2.8% 5.5% -0.0% 0.2% 3.6% 0.2% -2.9% -7.2% -4.2% 3.9% 3.9% 13.2% 5.6% -1.7% -0.9% 2.0% 6.8% 7.4% Source: Company data Anhui historical YoY ARPV growth ARPV YoY Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Hening -9.5% -6.0% -10.4% -10.6% -11.4% -10.7% -7.4% -6.5% -7.2% 3.1% 3.1% -11.7% -2.8% -3.3% -4.5% -3.7% -0.4% -2.0% GaoJie 15.1% 22.1% 20.4% 16.5% 18.3% 20.7% 14.5% 2.8% -9.2% 13.4% 13.4% -16.9% -2.5% -0.3% -5.8% -3.5% -4.8% -5.6% XuanGuang -9.6% -2.6% -3.5% -6.6% -7.8% -5.1% -4.0% -3.3% -4.4% 14.7% 14.7% -14.5% -3.5% -2.9% -6.0% -6.4% -2.8% -2.2% LianHuo -5.7% 5.9% -2.8% -6.6% -7.9% -6.4% -1.1% 0.2% -1.5% 13.8% 13.8% -14.9% -8.0% -13.1% -12.5% -10.5% -9.3% -11.8% NingHuai 2.6% -3.4% -3.3% -2.4% -2.1% -6.4% -6.1% -5.4% -9.2% -4.5% -4.5% -8.9% -5.7% -7.6% -9.9% -9.7% -8.8% -6.7% NH205 0.9% -7.2% 2.6% -2.5% -4.0% -2.4% -1.4% -1.7% -0.4% -4.0% -4.0% -9.1% 2.8% 7.5% 2.9% 5.3% 7.9% 11.7% Guangci -12.3% -6.5% -6.6% -6.7% -4.6% -2.9% -4.1% -2.5% -3.2% 14.3% 14.3% -13.1% -2.4% -1.9% -5.3% -6.3% -3.1% -3.4% XuanNing - - - - - -4.5% 0.7% 2.5% 22.5% 26.2% 26.2% 6.7% 9.0% 8.7% 6.4% 7.6% 7.3% 6.3% Total -5.6% -1.5% -3.3% -5.6% -4.2% -4.9% -5.0% -7.2% -9.1% 5.1% 5.1% -12.8% -3.4% -5.4% -8.2% -6.5% -6.1% -4.4% Source: Company data Valuation and risks Anhui Expressway (995 HK, Hold, CMP HKD6.9, TP HKD7.0)/(600012 CH, Reduce, CMP RMB13.02, TP RMB5.9) We value the H-share at HKD7.0 and the A-share at RMB5.9 based on a DCF methodology. Our DCF valuation for the H-share is derived from the RMB-denominated cash flows whereby future cash flows (in RMB) are discounted and converted based on the HSBC FX team s exchange rate forecasts of 1.20 in FY15 and 1.18 in FY16 and beyond. We incorporate a 7.5% WACC, which itself is based on a 3.5% risk free rate, a 5.5% equity risk premium, a 0.8x beta, a cost of debt of 5.0% and a tax rate of 25.0%. Our A share DCF target price is derived directly from the RMB denominated cash flows of the company. We maintain a Hold rating on the H-share with an implied upside of 1.4% and a Reduce rating on the A- share with an implied downside of 54.7%. 3
Upside risks for A-share and H-share: Stronger-than-forecast traffic volume growth or value-accretive asset injections from the parent company. Downside risks for the H-share: Deterioration in freight to passenger vehicle traffic due to a slowdown in the economy leading to lower-than-forecast ARPV. The company has higher sensitivity to this being based in central China, where the freight to passenger ratio in vehicles is higher than peers. YueXiu Transport Infra (1052 HK, CMP HKD5.24, Buy, TP HKD8.2) We have a fair value target price for YueXiu Transport Infra at HKD8.2. This is based on a DCF valuation methodology, incorporating a WACC of 7.5%, which itself is based on a risk-free rate of 3.5%, an equity risk premium of 5.5%, a beta of 1.2x, a cost of debt of 5.9%, and an effective tax rate of 32.4%. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock with an implied upside of 56.5%. Downside risks: Slower-than-forecast growth of new roads or the company s toll road portfolio overall. There has been a higher-than-forecast negative impact on the Qinglian Expressway from the diversion of traffic to the recently-opened Guangle Expressway. To the extent that if traffic volumes on Qinglian further deteriorates, there is downside risk to our traffic growth forecasts for 2015. Depreciation of the RMB would also result in exchange losses for the company. 4
China Expressways valuation comparison table China Expressways: Valuation comparison table Company Ticker Rating Last Price* 1M chg (%) 3M chg (%) YTD chg (%) TP (lcy) Up/Dn side (%) Mkt Cap (USD m) 6M T/O PER EV/EBITDA P/B ROE (%) Yield (%) Net D/E (%) EPS growth (%) _ (USD m) FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E FY15E FY16E FY17E Sichuan (H) 107 HK Hold 2.76 7.0-8.3-15.6 2.70-2.2 2,359 2.42 8.2 8.1 7.7 11.8 10.2 8.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 7.2 6.8 6.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 99 85 71-13 0 6 Jiangsu (H) 177 HK Hold 10.12 0.2 1.3 10.8 10.10-0.2 6,677 4.69 15.2 13.4 13.2 8.7 7.8 7.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 13.0 14.4 14.0 5.4 5.5 5.7 50 40 30 7 13 1 Shenzhen (H) 548 HK Buy 5.97 14.1 1.4 17.1 6.00 0.5 2,211 3.15 10.8 10.5 11.3 6.8 6.9 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 8.3 8.3 6.1 3.7 3.9 3.5 41 39-23 2 3-8 Zhejiang 576 HK Buy 9.34 9.8-3.7 1.4 10.70 14.6 5,324 10.21 11.7 10.1 9.7 5.2 4.1 3.6 1.8 1.7 1.5 16.0 17.1 16.5 5.1 5.5 5.8 5-6 -16 21 16 5 Hopewell 737 HK Hold 3.93 3.4 3.4 1.6 4.00 1.8 1,571 0.94 19.1 18.3 15.0 8.7 8.7 7.6 1.4 1.5 1.5 7.2 7.8 9.8 10.8 5.3 6.5 69 67 60-6 4 22 Anhui (H) 995 HK Hold 6.90 5.3-6.8 33.7 7.00 1.4 3,172 2.55 10.1 9.7 9.8 9.4 9.3 9.4 1.1 1.1 1.0 11.7 11.4 10.6 4.3 4.5 4.5 3 8 10 9 4-0 Yuexiu 1052 HK Buy 5.24 6.9-2.6 11.7 8.20 56.5 1,099 1.16 10.2 9.9 9.7 7.8 5.8 5.3 0.8 0.8 0.8 8.2 8.2 8.1 5.4 6.1 6.1 70 59 49 10 4 1 Sichuan (A) 601107 CH Reduce 4.85 9.7-14.8-10.5 2.40-50.5 2,359 45.76 17.5 17.5 16.5 11.8 10.2 8.7 1.2 1.2 1.1 7.2 6.8 6.8 1.4 1.4 1.5 99 85 71-13 0 6 Jiangsu (A) 600377 CH Hold 8.44 8.8 4.1 18.9 8.60 1.9 6,677 30.00 15.4 13.6 13.5 8.7 7.8 7.3 2.0 1.9 1.9 13.0 14.4 14.0 5.3 5.5 5.6 50 40 30 7 13 1 Shenzhen (A) 600548 CH Reduce 6.48 9.8-22.8-19.9 5.00-22.8 2,211 24.20 14.3 13.8 15.0 6.8 6.9 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.8 8.3 8.3 6.1 2.8 2.9 2.6 41 39-23 2 3-8 Anhui (A) 600012 CH Reduce 13.02 39.7 8.3 112.4 5.90-54.7 3,172 45.70 23.3 22.4 22.5 9.4 9.3 9.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 11.7 11.4 10.6 3.5 3.5 3.6 3 8 10 9 4-0 Huabei (A) 000916 CH NR 5.78 13.8-14.6 13.3 978 35.61 18.9 15.9 14.5 n/a n/a n/a 1.4 1.3 n/a 8.4 9.7 n/a 1.8 2.2 n/a n/a n/a n/a 46 19 10 Fujian (A) 600033 CH NR 4.06 6.6-16.6 6.6 1,763 84.30 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a Shandong (A) 600350 CH NR 6.73 16.6-13.3 36.0 5,195 55.96 12.5 11.0 9.9 6.1 n/a n/a 1.4 1.3 1.1 11.8 12.3 11.6 2.3 2.3 1.5 n/a n/a n/a 1 14 11 Jilin (A) 601518 CH NR 4.84 13.9-16.3 30.5 938 52.46 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a CMHP CMH SP NR 0.93 2.2-8.8 0.1 787 0.84 9.9 9.8 9.0 23.7 20.2 18.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 9.0 8.6 9.2 7.2 7.5 8.3 n/a n/a n/a - 1 8 H share average 5.8-2.1 9.1 12.5 11.4 11.1 8.0 7.3 6.1 1.5 1.4 1.3 11.8 12.4 12.0 5.1 5.0 5.1 39 32 19 7 9 3 A share average 15.2-6.8 28.1 16.2 14.9 14.5 8.3 8.4 7.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 11.1 11.7 11.1 3.4 3.5 3.3 46 40 24 5 10 3 Sector average 10.6-4.5 18.7 14.3 13.1 12.7 8.1 7.7 6.5 1.6 1.5 1.4 11.5 12.1 11.6 4.3 4.2 4.3 42 35 21 6 9 3 Anhui Expressway (995 HK/600012 CH) *Last Price updated on 20 October 2015 close Sector averages are market cap weighted Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates 5
Disclosure appendix Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Wei Sim Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations and that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions. Ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations and therefore investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. Further, investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views and the basis for the rating. From 23rd March 2015 HSBC has assigned ratings on the following basis: The target price is based on the analyst s assessment of the stock s actual current value, although we expect it to take six to 12 months for the market price to reflect this. When the target price is more than 20% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Buy; when it is between 5% and 20% above the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Buy or a Hold; when it is between 5% below and 5% above the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Hold; when it is between 5% and 20% below the current share price, the stock may be classified as a Hold or a Reduce; and when it is more than 20% below the current share price, the stock will be classified as a Reduce. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation or resumption of coverage, change in target price or estimates). Upside/Downside is the percentage difference between the target price and the share price. Prior to this date, HSBC s rating structure was applied on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock s domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. The target price for a stock represented the value the analyst expected the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon was 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, had to exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock was expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the succeeding 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands were classified as Neutral. *A stock was classified as volatile if its historical volatility had exceeded 40%, if the stock had been listed for less than 12 months (unless it was in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expected significant volatility. However, stocks which we did not consider volatile may in fact also have behaved in such a way. Historical volatility was defined as the past month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility had to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change. 6
As of, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows: Buy 46% (31% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Hold 40% (29% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Sell 14% (17% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) For the purposes of the distribution above the following mapping structure is used during the transition from the previous to current rating models: under our previous model, Overweight = Buy, Neutral = Hold and Underweight = Sell; under our current model Buy = Buy, Hold = Hold and Reduce = Sell. For rating definitions under both models, please see Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis above. Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities YueXiu Transport Infrastr (1052.HK) Share Price performance HKD Vs HSBC rating history 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Anhui Expressway A (600012.SS) Share Price performance CNY Vs HSBC rating history 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3 Oct-10 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-14 Oct-15 Oct-15 Recommendation & price target history From To Date Overweight Neutral 26 February 2013 Neutral Overweight 04 July 2013 Overweight Neutral 05 August 2014 Neutral Underweight 01 December 2014 Underweight Overweight 21 January 2015 Overweight Buy 07 April 2015 Target Price Value Date Price 1 4.80 26 February 2013 Price 2 4.70 18 March 2013 Price 3 4.90 04 July 2013 Price 4 5.10 15 August 2013 Price 5 5.90 04 March 2014 Price 6 6.00 19 March 2014 Price 7 6.10 27 March 2014 Price 8 5.30 07 May 2014 Price 9 5.10 26 August 2014 Price 10 4.90 01 December 2014 Price 11 6.30 21 January 2015 Price 12 6.00 18 March 2015 Price 13 7.60 07 May 2015 Price 14 7.70 31 July 2015 Price 15 8.20 13 August 2015 Recommendation & price target history From To Date N/A Underweight 03 March 2015 Underweight Reduce 25 March 2015 Target Price Value Date Price 1 4.00 03 March 2015 Price 2 4.10 25 March 2015 Price 3 4.90 31 March 2015 Price 4 5.50 07 May 2015 Price 5 6.10 05 June 2015 Price 6 5.80 31 July 2015 Price 7 5.90 24 August 2015 7
Anhui Expressway (0995.HK) Share Price performance HKD Vs HSBC rating history 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Oct-10 HSBC & disclosures Disclosure checklist Recommendation & price target history From To Date Overweight Neutral 26 February 2013 Neutral Overweight 26 March 2013 Overweight Neutral 04 July 2013 Neutral Underweight 07 May 2014 Underweight Hold 25 March 2015 Hold Buy 31 March 2015 Buy Hold 07 April 2015 Target Price Value Date Price 1 4.90 26 February 2013 Price 2 4.80 26 March 2013 Price 3 4.10 04 July 2013 Price 4 4.20 26 August 2013 Price 5 4.90 03 March 2015 Price 6 5.00 25 March 2015 Price 7 6.00 31 March 2015 Price 8 6.80 07 May 2015 Price 9 7.50 05 June 2015 Price 10 7.30 31 July 2015 Price 11 7.00 24 August 2015 Company Ticker Recent price Price Date Disclosure ANHUI EXPRESSWAY 0995.HK 6.90 20-Oct-2015 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 ANHUI EXPRESSWAY A 600012.SS 13.02 20-Oct-2015 1, 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 YUEXIU TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTUR 1052.HK 5.24 20-Oct-2015 1, 4, 5 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 Oct-15 1 HSBC has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months. 2 HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. 3 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this company. 4 As of 30 September 2015 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company. 5 As of 31 August 2015, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services. 6 As of 31 August 2015, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services. 7 As of 31 August 2015, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services. 8 A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months. 9 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as detailed below. 10 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this company, as detailed below. 11 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-us Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in securities in respect of this company HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis. s, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance. 8
For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. Additional disclosures 1 This report is dated as at. 2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 20 October 2015, unless otherwise indicated in the report. 3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner. 9
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