Lojas Americanas (LAME4 BZ)

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1 Company report Consumer & Retail Equity Brazil Lojas Americanas (LAME4 BZ) Overweight Target price (BRL) Share price (BRL) Forecast dividend yield (%) 1.5 Potential return (%) 42.9 Note: Potential return equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, plus the forecast dividend yield Dec 2013 a 2014 e 2015 e HSBC EPS HSBC PE Performance 1M 3M 12M Absolute (%) Relative^ (%) Note: (V) = volatile (please see disclosure appendix) Richard Cathcart* HSBC Bank Brasil S.A [email protected] Stewart Ragar* HSBC Bank Brasil S.A [email protected] View HSBC Global Research at: *Employed by a non-us affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report: HSBC Bank Brasil S.A. Banco Múltiplo Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it OW: Re-focusing on an undervalued stores business We spent a week with investors in Europe, and Americanas is attracting attention in an otherwise unattractive sector We consider Americanas to be least exposed to a slowdown, yet the implied valuation of the stores is at historic lows LAME4 shares are trading on c.22x our FY15e EPS, with the stores on c.18x vs. a historical average of c.26x Feedback from a week of meetings with investors in Europe suggests that we are not alone in having little enthusiasm for Brazil s discretionary retailers over the next 12 months. With a weak macro environment, concern is rising that consensus estimates are likely too high and that the sector could experience a de-rating. This is in line with the views that we set out in our recent report Reality bites (1 September 2014). However, Lojas Americanas stands out as one stock that we believe could buck this trend. We think that this is the right time to be looking at the stock from both valuation and operational perspectives. Based on our estimates for FY15e, the implied forward PE of the Americanas stores business (stripping out the B2W stake) has fallen to c.18x versus an average of c.26x over the last five years (see calculations and charts inside). We do not think this is justified. Total sales growth at Americanas stores remains high (FY15e 12% vs. c.14% over the period e), and we forecast an EBITDA margin of 18.7% in FY15e versus 15.2% in FY10. The potential expansion of the store network also remains considerable, in our view. We therefore see no structural reason for a de-rating of the Americanas stores. Furthermore, our benchmarking exercise with Renner suggests a valuation of 25x to be appropriate. If the standalone Americanas stores business were to trade on 25x forward PE, we calculate investors would be paying almost zero for the B2W stake. We understand that investors are nervous about whether the rally of B2W in 2014 is sustainable, but we think the current valuation more than prices in those concerns. We anticipate gradual improvements in B2W s ability to generate cash (even if it continues to spend all of this cash) due to a rising gross margin and lower financial costs. We do not think that B2W needs to prove all its doubters wrong overnight; operational results moving in the right direction is sufficient, in our view, for investors to re-focus attention on the Americanas stores business. With 2015 looking set to be a tough year for Brazil s retailers, we think Americanas should command a premium as it continues to report resilient results. Lojas Americanas is in our equity strategy team s Brazil Model Portfolio please see the latest Brazil Equity Insights report (9 October 2014). Index^ BOVESPA INDEX Index level 57,058 RIC LAME4.SA Bloomberg LAME4 BZ Enterprise value (BRLm) 18,819 Free float (%) 62 Market cap (USDm) 6,655 Market cap (BRLm) 16,147

2 Financials & valuation Financial statements Year to 12/2013a 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Profit & loss summary (BRLm) Revenue 13,401 16,450 19,533 23,292 EBITDA 1,846 2,165 2,610 3,195 Depreciation & amortisation Operating profit/ebit 1,573 1,817 2,209 2,725 Net interest ,174-1,025-1,067 PBT ,185 1,657 HSBC PBT ,185 1,657 Taxation Net profit ,064 HSBC net profit ,064 Cash flow summary (BRLm) Cash flow from operations 1, ,229 1,619 Capex -1,335-3,245-2,915-2,423 Cash flow from investment -1,335-3,245-2,915-2,423 Dividends Change in net debt FCF equity ,263-1, Balance sheet summary (BRLm) Intangible fixed assets 1,785 2,160 2,160 2,160 Tangible fixed assets 2,185 2,907 3,819 4,435 Current assets 8,992 9,749 10,710 11,886 Cash & others 4,088 4,022 4,022 4,022 Total assets 14,138 15,992 17,866 19,657 Operating liabilities 4,825 5,807 6,745 7,875 Gross debt 7,693 6,693 6,828 6,344 Net debt 3,605 2,671 2,806 2,322 Shareholders funds 1,175 1,972 2,773 3,919 Invested capital 4,049 4,986 5,923 6,584 Ratio, growth and per share analysis Year to 12/2013a 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Y-o-y % change Revenue EBITDA Operating profit PBT HSBC EPS Ratios (%) Revenue/IC (x) ROIC ROE ROA EBITDA margin Operating profit margin EBITDA/net interest (x) Net debt/equity Net debt/ebitda (x) CF from operations/net debt Per share data (BRL) EPS reported (fully diluted) HSBC EPS (fully diluted) DPS Book value Key forecast drivers Year to 12/2013a 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e Same store sales (%) Number of Stores ,058 1,158 Selling Area ('1000 sqm) ,039 Valuation data Year to 12/2013a 12/2014e 12/2015e 12/2016e EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/IC PE* P/Book value FCF yield (%) Dividend yield (%) Note: * = Based on HSBC EPS (fully diluted) Price relative Lojas Americanas Rel to BOVESPA INDEX Note: price at close of 08 Oct

3 Lojas Americanas stores undervalued at current share prices The tables below set out the following calculations: (1) the implied forward PE valuation of the Lojas Americanas stores based on current share prices; and (2) the implied valuation per share of B2W in a scenario with Lojas Americanas stores valued at 25x forward PE. A valuation of 25x would be broadly in line with the 5-year average, which we think is appropriate given that there has been no deterioration in sales growth, margins or outlook for expansion. A comparison with Renner (more detail below) backs this up, in our view. Current share prices imply 18x forward PE for Americanas stores; using 25x forward PE implies a value for B2W of BRL0.5 per share (BRL unless stated) Current prices: current LAME / BTOW share prices Source: Bloomberg. HSBC for estimates Scenario: implicit value of B2W with LAME stores at 25x fwd PE Current LAME4 price 14.1 Current LAME4 price 14.1 No of LAME4 shares (m) 763 No of LAME4 shares (m) 763 Current LAME3 price 11.9 Current LAME3 price 11.9 No of LAME3 shares (m) 452 No of LAME3 shares (m) 452 Current LAME mkt cap inc B2W 16,145 Current LAME mkt cap inc B2W 16,145 Current BTOW3 price 32.5 LAME stores 2015e PE multiple 25.0x No. of BTOW3 shares (m) LAME stores 2015e net income 639 Current BTOW3 mkt cap 8,262 LAME stores mkt cap ex. BTOW3 15,975 BTOW3 stake held by LAME (%) 55% Implied value BTOW3 stake held by LAME (R$m) 170 BTOW3 stake held by LAME 4,544 BTOW3 stake held by LAME (%) 55% LAME stores mkt cap ex. BTOW3 11,601 Implied BTOW3 mkt cap (100%) 309 LAME stores 2015e net income 639 BTOW3 2015e sales 10,390 LAME stores 2015e PE 18.2x BTOW3 2015e net debt 735 BTOW3 implied 2015e EV 1,044 BTOW3 implied 2015e EV / Sales 0.10x LAME stores 2015e net income 639 BTOW3 implied share price (R$) - stores at 25x fwd PE 0.5 The charts below paint a picture of the figures above, showing: (1) the implied value of BTOW3 with the current LAME4 share price and based on valuing the Americanas stores at 20x and 25x forward PE; and (2) the implied value of LAME4 shares based on valuing the Lojas Americanas stores at 20x and 25x forward PE alongside the current BTOW3 share price. Implied value of BTOW3 (BRL per share) 35.0 Implied value of LAME4 (BRL per share) % % Current share price Americanas stores at 20x fwd PE -99% Americanas stores at 25x fwd PE Current share price Americanas stores at 20x fwd PE Americanas stores at 25x fwd PE Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates Source: Bloomberg, HSBC estimates We therefore see significant potential for LAME4 shares to re-rate to higher multiples. 3

4 Lojas Americanas stores have historically traded at c.26x PE Oct-09 Apr-10 Oct-10 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Americanas stores implied fwd PE Average Americanas stores Consolidated forward PE Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates We have also used Renner as a benchmark to judge whether this is an appropriate valuation. The table below sets out these calculations. We have taken Renner s historical average forward PE of c.19x and stripped out the Financial Services business at 10x to arrive at an implied valuation for the stores of c.21x. We think Americanas stores should trade at a premium for the following reasons: (1) higher EBITDA margin; (2) lower working capital requirement; (3) less capital-intensive expansion; (4) less gross margin risk (markdown); and (5) less competition in its product categories. Benchmarking with Renner s historical average multiple, we think 25x is appropriate for Americanas stores What multiple should LAME stores trade at? LREN3 historical average multiple 18.8x Contribution from Financial Services 20% Financial Services PE 10.0x LREN stores implied multiple 21.0x LAME stores multiple premium 20% LREN stores implied multiple 21.0x LAME stores estimated fair multiple 25.2x Source: Company reports, HSBC estimates Valuation and risks We arrive at our target price of BRL20 for LAME4 shares by applying the historical average consolidated multiple of 31x to our FY15e EPS of BRL0.65. Under our research model, for stocks without a volatility indicator, the Neutral band is 5ppt above and below the hurdle rate for Brazil stocks of 11%. Our target price of BRL20 implies a potential return of 42.9% (including a forecast dividend yield of 1.5%), which is above the Neutral band of our model; therefore, we are reiterating our Overweight rating on Lojas Americanas shares. Potential return equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated. Downside risks include a more negative impact from a tougher consumer environment, slower roll-out of new stores, increased competition, and slower or shallower turnaround at B2W. 4

5 Disclosure appendix Certification The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Richard Cathcart and Stewart Ragar Brazilian Securities Exchange Commission (CVM) Regulation No. 483 Pursuant to CVM Ruling No. 483 (July 2010), HSBC has obtained from the analyst(s) listed above under " Certification" and disclosed (where applicable), the statements set forth in Article 17 and have rendered (where applicable) the statements set forth in Article 18, under the sections titled " Certification" and "HSBC & Disclosures". The analyst(s) furthermore certifies(y) that the recommendations contained in this report have been prepared independently, even in relation to HSBC. Additionally, for purposes of Article 16, the principal analyst responsible for compliance of the mentioned regulation is the first name in the list under " Certification" that has local certification, where applicable. Important disclosures Equities: Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations. Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon; and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative, technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating. HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below. This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of this website. HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views, investors should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice. Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities Stock ratings HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stock s domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months 5

6 (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation of coverage, change of volatility status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review, expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily triggering a rating change. *A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12 months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However, stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change. Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities As of, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows: Overweight (Buy) 45% (29% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Neutral (Hold) 37% (29% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Underweight (Sell) 18% (20% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Share price and rating changes for long-term investment opportunities Lojas Americanas (LAME4.SA) Share Price performance BRL Vs HSBC rating Recommendation & price target history history From To Date Neutral (V) Underweight 06 March 2012 Underweight Neutral 16 November 2012 Neutral Overweight 31 January 2014 Target Price Value Date Price March 2012 Price May 2012 Price October 2012 Price November 2012 Price July 2013 Price September 2013 Price January 2014 Price May 2014 Price June 2014 Price September Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13 Oct-14 6

7 HSBC & disclosures Disclosure checklist Company Ticker Recent price Price Date Disclosure LOJAS AMERICANAS LAME4.SA Oct HSBC has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities for this company within the past 12 months. 2 HSBC expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next 3 months. 3 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. is a Market Maker in securities issued by this company. 4 As of 31 August 2014 HSBC beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of this company. 5 As of 31 August 2014, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of investment banking services. 6 As of 31 August 2014, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-investment banking securities-related services. 7 As of 31 August 2014, this company was a client of HSBC or had during the preceding 12 month period been a client of and/or paid compensation to HSBC in respect of non-securities services. 8 A covering analyst/s has received compensation from this company in the past 12 months. 9 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household has a financial interest in the securities of this company, as detailed below. 10 A covering analyst/s or a member of his/her household is an officer, director or supervisory board member of this company, as detailed below. 11 At the time of publication of this report, HSBC is a non-us Market Maker in securities issued by this company and/or in securities in respect of this company HSBC and its affiliates will from time to time sell to and buy from customers the securities/instruments (including derivatives) of companies covered in HSBC Research on a principal or agency basis. s, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues. Whether, or in what time frame, an update of this analysis will be published is not determined in advance. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at Additional disclosures 1 This report is dated as at. 2 All market data included in this report are dated as at close 08 October 2014, unless otherwise indicated in the report. 3 HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner. 7

8 Disclaimer * Legal entities as at 30 May 2014 UAE HSBC Bank Middle East Limited, Dubai; HK The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Hong Kong; TW HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited; 'CA' HSBC Bank Canada, Toronto; HSBC Bank, Paris Branch; HSBC France; DE HSBC Trinkaus & Burkhardt AG, Düsseldorf; 000 HSBC Bank (RR), Moscow; IN HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited, Mumbai; JP HSBC Securities (Japan) Limited, Tokyo; EG HSBC Securities Egypt SAE, Cairo; CN HSBC Investment Bank Asia Limited, Beijing Representative Office; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Singapore Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Securities Branch; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Seoul Branch; HSBC Securities (South Africa) (Pty) Ltd, Johannesburg; HSBC Bank plc, London, Madrid, Milan, Stockholm, Tel Aviv; US HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, New York; HSBC Yatirim Menkul Degerler AS, Istanbul; HSBC México, SA, Institución de Banca Múltiple, Grupo Financiero HSBC; HSBC Bank Brasil SA Banco Múltiplo; HSBC Bank Australia Limited; HSBC Bank Argentina SA; HSBC Saudi Arabia Limited; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, New Zealand Branch incorporated in Hong Kong SAR; The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited, Bangkok Branch Issuer of report HSBC Bank Brasil S.A. Banco Múltiplo Av. Faria Lima, andar Itaim Bibi São Paulo SP Brasil CEP Telephone: Fax: Website: This document has been elaborated, produced and approved by HSBC Bank Brasil S.A. Banco Múltiplo. If this research is received by a customer of an affiliate of HSBC, its provision to the recipient is subject to the terms of business in place between the recipient and such affiliate. HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. accepts responsibility for the content of this research report prepared by its non-us foreign affiliate. All U.S. persons receiving and/or accessing this report and wishing to effect transactions in any security discussed herein should do so with HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. in the United States and not with its non-us foreign affiliate, the issuer of this report. 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9 Global Consumer Brands & Retail Research Team Europe Consumer Brands & Retail Antoine Belge Head of Consumer Brands and Retail Equity Research [email protected] Anne-Laure Jamain [email protected] David McCarthy Head of Consumer Retail, Europe [email protected] Jérôme Samuel [email protected] Emmanuelle Vigneron [email protected] Paul Rossington [email protected] Leisure Lena Thakkar [email protected] CEEMEA Consumer Brands & Retail Bulent Yurdagul [email protected] Jeanine Womersley [email protected] Specialist Sales Lynn Raphael [email protected] David Harrington [email protected] Jean Gael Tabet [email protected] Asia Consumer Brands & Retail Erwan Rambourg Head of Consumer Brands and Retail Equity Research [email protected] Chris Zee [email protected] Christopher Leung [email protected] Lina Yan [email protected] Catherine Chao [email protected] Charlene Liu [email protected] Alice Chan [email protected] Karen Choi [email protected] Jena Han [email protected] Permada (Mada) Darmono [email protected] Ananita M Kusumaningsih [email protected] Thilan Wickramasinghe [email protected] Amit Sachdeva [email protected] North & Latin America Consumer & Retail Richard Cathcart [email protected] Stewart Ragar [email protected] Food & Beverage James Watson [email protected] Diego T Maia [email protected] Agricultural Products Alexandre Falcao [email protected] Ravi Jain [email protected] Gustavo Gregori [email protected]

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