Halk REIT. Bloomberg: HLGYO TI OUTPERFORM. Reuters: HLGYO IS. An overlooked REIC with a premium portfolio

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1 Equity / Mid Cap. / Real Estate Investment Trust Halk REIT Bloomberg: HLGYO TI Reuters: HLGYO IS An overlooked REIC with a premium portfolio Investment Positives Turkey s third largest listed REIC. In 2012 company generated TL25mn rental income from its buildings, mainly rented to Halk Bank, Turkey s first runner-up state bank. With the completion of the projects at hand, rental revenues are projected to reach TL45mn level in 2014 and further grow to TL268mn in 2017 when Istanbul Finance Centre (IFC) Project is completed. Rental revenues from Halkbank is estimated to account 50% of the total in Istanbul Finance Centre Project predominates company s portfolio. IFC is conceived to be an international finance hub comprising of banks and regulatory bodies such as BRSA and CMB. Halk REIT is developing 239K sqm area in IFC comprising of two office towers to be rented to Halk Bank and three additional buildings to be rented to third parties. The project will be developed on the land with an appraisal value of TL495mn, expected to generate TL210mn annual rental income when completed in The company plans TL650mn investment for the project with 239K sqm leasable space. Project s appraisal value is estimated to be TL2.4bn at the time of completion. Projects to be developed in the near term. In the short term company plans to develop a hotel project, two residential projects and a banking operational centre namely Dedeman Park Levent, Referans Bakirkoy, Eskisehir Odunpazari and Kocaeli Sekerpinar projects. Halk Bank share purchase program to serve as a downside protection. Halk REIT s parent company Halk Bank has launched a share purchase program back in May 2013 and has purchased 2.8% of Halk REIT s share to date. We think continuing share purchases may limit the downside at the stock. Existing building portfolio consists of 22 Halk Bank office building with total appraisal value of TL424mn, accounting for 36% of total NAV. Most valuable ones are located in İstanbul, Ankara and Izmir. Largest operational assets are Istanbul Halkbank Finance Tower, İstanbul Salipazari Building and İstanbul Karaköy Building with TL159mn,TL38mn and TL25mn appraisal values, respectively. Initiating Coverage OUTPERFORM Upside Potential 58% Stock Data TL US$ Price at Month Target Price Mcap (mn) Float Mcap (mn) No. of Shares Outstanding 674 mn Free Float (%) Avg.Daily Volume (3M, mn) Market Data TL BIST ,715 US$ Spot Rate US$ 12-Month Forw ard Price Performance (%) 1 Mn 3 Mn 12 Mn TL -3-6 n.a US$ n.a Relative to BIST n.a Price / Relative Price TL 06/09/2013 * Including dividend yield Relative HLGYO Relative to BIST Week Range (Close TL) Investment Negatives Any inconvenience at the IFC Project is the main downside risk for the company. IFC land accounts for %42 of company s NAV. Depending on macro environment in 2017, occupancy rates and rental incomes from IFC may be lower than forecasted. The fact that 42% of the leasable space at IFC will be rented by Halk Bank limits the risks. Company is not expected to pay dividends until the end of heavy capital expenditures in Emre Sezan, CFA esezan@isyatirim.com.tr Outlook and Valuation At the current Mcap the stock offers 58% upside potential to our 12-month target price of TL1.8/share and trades at 34% discount to its NAV. Please refer to important disclaimer at the end of this report. 1

2 Valuation We have valued Halk REIT through sum of the parts analysis in which we have valued each asset through a separate DCF. Accordingly, we have come up with a target Mcap of TL1,225mn, implying a fruitful 58% upside. We have used a TL based risk free rate of 9%, equity risk premium of 6%, beta of 0.92 and a cost of debt of 10% which yielded a WACC of 13.8%. As REICs are currently exempt from corporate tax, no corporate tax is calculated for the company throughout the forecast horizon. We conservatively assume US$37 (converted at 2.0TL/USD) per month per square rent for IFC Project that is equal to Halkbank Finance Tower s current rate which is located in the same district. Figure 1: Sum of The Parts Revenue Projections (TLmn) Rental Income Istanbul Atasehir Land Kocaeli Sekerpinar Land Dedeman Park Levent Hotel Buildings to rent Total Rental Income Residential Sale Income Referans Bakirkoy Project Eskişehir Odunpazarı Project Total Sale Income Total Income Capex Istanbul Atasehir Land Kocaeli Sekerpinar Land Dedeman Park Levent Hotel Referans Bakirkoy Project Eskişehir Odunpazarı Project Expenses Rental COGS OPEX FCF PV of FCF Terminal Value g 1% TV 2146 PV of TV 760 Net Cash Position (2Q13) 142 Cash 156 Financial Investment 6 ST Debt 3 LT Debt 16 Target Mcap Total PV of FCF 237 PV of TV 760 Net Cash/(Debt) 142 Equity Value 1225 Current Mcap 775 Upside 58% Target Price

3 02/13 Halk REIT NAV Analysis NAV Analysis Halk REIT is currently trading at 34% discount to NAV, while the average discount of top ten biggest REICs is 35%, excluding Emlak REIC is 45%. Figure 2: NAV Peers Comparison (TLmn) NAV Mcap Landbank Projects Buildings Other Assets - Liabilities EKGYO 8,137 6,300-23% 43% 1.5% 35% 71% 2% -8% TRGYO 2,881 1,535-47% 10% 0.4% 16% 44% 65% -26% ISGYO 1, % 5% 0.2% 5% 24% 79% -7% HLGYO 1, % 5% 0.2% 43% 12% 36% 8% SAFGY 1, % 5% 0.2% 0% 112% 7% -20% VKGYO % 5% 0.2% 71% 0% 10% 19% SNGYO 1, % 4% 0.1% 29% 43% 32% -4% AKMGY % 4% 0.1% 0% 0% 99% 1% AKSGY % 3% 0.1% 27% 1% 81% -10% PAGYO % 2% 0.1% 0% 0% 100% 0% Top Ten REICs 19,592 12,654-35% 86% 3.1% Top Ten excl. EKGYO 11,454 6,354-45% 43% 1.6% All REICs 14,774 0% 3.6% BIST ,874 Discount/ Premium Mcap/ Mcap REICs Mcap/ Mcap BIST100 NAV Breakdown -20% Source: Companies, Is Investment Figure 3: NAV Time Series -22% -24% -26% -26% -28% -30% -31% -32% -34% -36% -38% -37% -40% Source: Company, Is Investment As mentioned Halk REIT is currently trading at 34% discount to its NAV. Since the IPO held on the 22 February 2013, the discount to NAV ranged in 26% to 37% averaging at 31%. 3

4 Figure 4: Portfolio Breakdown 39% 47% Lands Projects Buildings 13% Source: Company, Is Investment Land bank, buildings and projects consists of 47%, 39% and 13% of the portfolio respectively. Note that in the NAV calculation lands and projects are recorded at land appraisal value that disregards development profits. Hence the predominance of the lands and projects in the portfolio warrants a narrower discount to NAV compared to other REICs. Halk REIT is similar to Is REIT in terms of business model however weight of Halk REIT landbank is greater compared to Is REIT s therefore HALK REIT deserves narrower discount to NAV (HLGYO: -34%, ISGYO: -57%) Portfolio Highlight Halk REIT currently operates 22 office buildings consisting of Halkbank Branches and HQ, part of IFC and Kocaeli Sekerpinar Project are to be rented to Halkbank. Additionally company develops two residential projects (Eskisehir Odunpazari and Referans Bakirkoy) and a urban hotel project (Dedeman Park Levent). Istanbul Finance Centre (IFC) Project IFC Project which is recorded at land value makes 46% of company portfolio. IFC is conceived to be an international finance hub housing banks and regulatory bodies such as BRSA and CMB. Halk REIT is developing 239K sqm area in IFC comprising of two office towers and three additional buildings to be rented to Halk Bank and third parties. The project will be developed on the TL495mn worth of land and expected to generate TL210mn annual rental income when completed in The company plans TL650mn investment for the project with 239K sqm leasable space. Halk Bank will rent %42 sqm of the total leasable area of 239 sqm. Project s appraisal value is estimated to be TL2.4bn at the completion. Halkbank Finance Tower Halkbank s headquarter with TL159mn appraisal value makes 15% of company s portfolio. Building is located in IFC and has 23 floors, with 13.7K sqm leasable area. Referans Bakirkoy Project Project s appraisal value is TL90.5mn which corresponds to 8% of the portfolio. Company develops 326 units project under revenue sharing model with Biskon Yapı. Company s share is TL90.5mn and project is expected to be completed in 2Q14. Dedeman Park Levent Dedeman Park is urban hotel project with an appraisal value of TL53.8mn (5% of the total portfolio). Halk REIT has signed 10 year lease agreement with Dedeman Group. Project expected to generate c.a. EUR4mn annual rental income when completed in 3Q14. Istanbul Salipazari Building Halbank s second valuable office building, Istanbul Salipazarı Building s latest appraisal value is TL37.6mn corresponding to 3.5% of portfolio. 4

5 Rental Yields Rental Yields Halk REIT 2012 rental yield based on appraisal value is 6.7% versus Is REIT s average rental yield of 7.7% and Is REIT s office buildings yield of %9.8. Figure 5: Rental Yield 9% 8% 7% 8.2% 8.3% 8.3% 8.4% 7.8% 6.7% 6.8% 6.9% 6.6% 6.7% 6% 5% 4% 3% Rental Yield (based on cost) Rent Yield (based on appraisal value) 2% 1% 0% 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 Source: Company Figure 6: Rental Yield Comparison Market implied Rental Yield (Rent Income/(Mcap+Cap-ex) 2013T 2014T 2015T 2016T 2017T HLGYO 3.8% 5.0% 5.4% 5.7% 16.6% ISGYO 14.8% 14.9% 15.2% 14.3% 14.7% Source: Is Investment Shareholder Structure Currently Halkbank owns 74.7% of Halk REIT, while the 25% is floated at the BIST. The Company went public in February 2013 at an Mcap of TL894.4mn. Figure 7: Shareholder Structure 25% 0% Halkbank Other Free Float 75% Source: Company 5

6 Financing of the new projects Company has scheduled ca TL775mn capital expenditure for the next four year period. During company is expected to generate ca TL231mn EBITDA to add to TL250mn IPO proceed. Remaining of the cap-ex is expected to be debt financed. Additionally company is expected to bear TL42mn net financial expenses for the four year period. Note that company is not expected to pay dividends until the end of heavy capital expenditures in As the company is planning to determine IFC s rent in TL we have assumed the company to borrow in TL terms and bear 10% interest for the investment. Figure 8: Scheduled Capital Expenditure & Financing 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E Istanbul Atasehir Land Kocaeli Sekerpinar Land Dedeman Park Levent Hotel Referans Bakirkoy Project Eskişehir Odunpazarı Project Total Capex Net Cash/ (Debt) Interest Income / (Expenses) Rental Income EBITDA Net Debt/EBITDA -270% -6% 565% 565% 68% Source: Is Investment 6

7 10/06 17/06 21/06 01/07 08/07 12/07 18/07 24/07 30/07 05/08 13/08 19/08 23/08 29/08 05/09 Halk REIT Summary of Key Financials (TL mn) Income Statement (TL mn) 2011A* 2012A* 2013E 2014E 2015E Revenues EBITDA Net income Cash Flow Statement (TL mn) Net Income Depreciation & Amortisation Change in Working Capital 0 (37) (13) 18 (1) Cash Flow from Operations 31 (24) Capital Expenditure Free Cash Flow (467) (140) (58) (72) (260) Balance Sheet (TL mn) Tangible Fixed Assets ,160 Cash & equivalents Total assets ,219 Short-term debt Total Debt Total equity Ratios Net debt/ebitda (x) EBITDA Margin Net Margin Valuation Metrics EV/Sales (x) 26.5x 6.4x 16.6x EV/EBITDA (x) 30.6x 9.6x 19.0x EV/IC (x) 1.1x 0.9x 0.7x P/E (x) 24.5x 8.6x 24.5x FCF yield (%) -7% -9% -34% Dividend yield (%) 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0% *based on average Mcap during the year Company Overview Halk GYO A.Ş., w as established in 2010, that invests in real estates, real estate based rights, real estate projects and capital market instruments. Shareholder Structure 25.0% 0.0% 75.0% Turkiye Halk Bankasi A.S Other Floating Other Foreign Ownership (%) Foreign Share (%) 3M Average This report has been prepared by İş Yatırım Menkul Değerler A.Ş. (İş Investment) solely for the information of clients of İş Investment. Opinions and estimates contained in this material are not under the scope of investment advisory services. Investment advisory services are given according to the investment advisory contract, signed between the intermediary institutions, portfolio management companies, investment banks and the clients. Opinions and recommendations contained in this report reflect the personal views of the analysts who supplied them. The investments discussed or recommended in this report may involve significant risk, may be illiquid and may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial positions and with the assistance of independent advisors, as they believe necessary. The information presented in this report has been obtained from public institutions, such as Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE), Capital Market Board of Turkey (CMB), Republic of Turkey, Prime Ministry State Institute of Statistics (SIS), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBT); various media institutions, and other sources believed to be reliable but no independent verification has been made, nor is its accuracy or completeness guaranteed. All information in these pages remains the property of İş Investment and as such may not be disseminated, copied, altered or changed in any way, nor may this information be printed for distribution purposes or forwarded as electronic attachments without the prior written permission of İş Investment. ( This research report can also be accessed by subscribers of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. 7

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